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All very interesting but I'm struggling to locate exactly what and when AB mentioned them. Has the webcast been sanitised?

Might be AB trying to distance EnQuest from CNOOC. It doesn't hurt to say the product is good but the execution is terrible. The asset will always have a value. Look at Rhum. BP exited and Serica took a huge punt. The US waiver surprised me but the value of the gas field was never in question.

Occam's razor says you're right.

There is another point to GE. As with the energy suppliers that multiplied like mopsy it is relatively easy to start an O&G company. Many energy suppliers went bust through ignorance and flawed business plans. (I was with Bulb that got taken over by Octopus).

It is easier to just supply the capital and let another company operate the field. I get the feeling that EnQuest was a reluctant buyer of GE and it was in the middle of Covid. I think we're just selling the stake to another company who DOESN'T want to run an oilfield or maybe suits another company for a variety of reason. It will be sold on the value of its numbers. There's always a price but for us we are playing to our strengths. Whose to say that CNOOC might not have plans of their own? China has a different approach towards commodities and time scales. Other countries and companies do too.

There are companies that could look at GE but not Bressay until it is at a different stage. There are plenty of companies that couldn't develop Bressay or Kraken from scratch. Even if they felt brave enough would they get past the regulator? People don't always realise just how hard it is to build the reputation that EnQuest has achieved. We probably would have gone bust without AB's leadership. This is our time now. Growth is returning.

Summer is coming.

Possibly swapping one debt for another. AB gave the clue that Eagle wasn't benefitting from what we do best. Leaked today but who knows at what stage the negotiations are. I see this as a positive. Very encouraging.

*Reuters don't usually print without collaboration. This is possibly what The Telegraph were after.

Build it and they will come.

Another consideration is that if EnQuest doesn't want it then who does? AB was less than complimentary about the production skills of CNOOC at the recent presentation. He wouldn't have said that off script. It would be intentional and these announcements are carefully placed at the right time by various parties. I think KO is spot on - another chess piece being moved. We could even make a profit.

Almost complete. Only Ed missing. George Galloway, Corbyn and Claudia Webbe (cleared of acid threats but guilty of harassment)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/04/15/starmer-sunak-commons-george-galloway-israel-iran/

“The unprecedented direct attack by Iran on Israel highlights the increasing challenges to trade security as the West struggles to deal with tensions in Europe (Russia-Ukraine conflict), the Middle East (Houthi rebels disrupting trade via the Suez canal), sub-Saharan Africa and in the future potentially also in Asia (e.g. ongoing China-Taiwan tensions) or possibly South America,” warns economist Christian Schulz at the investment bank (Citi).

In other words, even if conflict is avoided between Israel and Iran in the near future, the world is becoming a more unstable place where energy shocks look ever more likely – and may be the least of our worries."

Source: Telegraph

And one of those worries is Ed Miliband and his worship of the child Saint Greta.

I was thinking of this from RNS 22 Dec 2023: "Steve Bowyer, GM North Sea for EnQuest said, "We continue to progress the development of the wider Kraken area, including a Bressay gas tie-back solution to reduce Kraken emissions, as well as an early production solution project at Bressay. We look forward to working with Rockrose, Waldorf (our Kraken JV partner) and the NSTA to move the project forward."

It follows on from the report of ADNOC considering buying BP. I realsise BP has been exiting the UKCS but still has a wealth of assets and skills in the UK. CCS may or may not be the future but for sure will develop faster in the UK than in the U.A.E and it could be deployed around the world in the same way our military is (U.A.E. is VERY close to Iran). We often forget that the UK is still a very stable country and our reputation and prestige is often valued more highly abroad than here. Just saying there are many reasons for tying up with the UK.

Another company based in U.A.E. is Famcorp who are behind RockRose/Viaro. Tenuous link maybe but what made ADNOC look at the UK won't be unique just to them and there is plenty of money swilling around in the ME.

Viaro are new kids on the block and their chief is not a shy retiring kinda guy. Maybe the leaks to the Telegraph go back to him? I would lay pretty short odds that the replacement for Waldorf in Kraken (if it happens) will involve Viaro.

If we are doing a deal that would tidy up that loose end and there is always the possibility we might go ahead with existing partners. Famcorp will have many contacts and I daresay capital. They see things in a different light to the UK and may see this as an opportunity to get diversement at a rock bottom price. The Arabs like a bargain and the NS has become one giant bazaar.

" we had the stunning news that deep green energy minister Graham Stuart had resigned. The reason given - that he wanted to spend more time on local issues - seemed somewhat unconvincing, and reasonable people will be assuming that we haven’t heard the end of this story.

Meanwhile, the reverberations of last week’s European Court ruling continue. The Supreme Court judge, Lord Sumption, has spoken out over the weekend and even the Prime Minister has joined the chorus, although presumably he will not actually do anything about it. And as if to remind us of the threat that Net Zero represents to liberty in the western world, a German minister has now mooted a ban on car travel at weekends.

It’s truly a mad, mad world."

All very interesting but why has Andrew Montford described GS as "deep green"?

I'm sure there's a story here. Ed Miliband tweeted " It’s no wonder Graham Stuart can’t bear to serve in this government. He doesn’t want to be locked in the boot of a strategy of climate denial and delay. If you want lower bills, good jobs and climate leadership, vote Labour." but no real follow-through.

Disagreement with Coutinho or another sexting scandal?

Hardly a crash himmatsj - we've been here before. Our new GM was the MD of First Oil which we took over in 2016. basically we were the only bidder I guess. Later we tried to sell a share to Delek which was aborted and we took a loan with Sculptor instead which was our only option and then a few rights issues. No wonder people are wary of the UKCS. All from memory and I think Waldorf bought from Cairn who'd had enough.

If nobody else appears we'll take the Waldorf share at a nominal price. This could even be behind the Telegraph story as it stirs up interest. The Waldorf story has been know for some time and certainly among the ever reducing number of NS players. It also becomes another chess piece. Still have my view that a deal is ongoing and obviously this complicates it but is not a surprise.

I find this confusing. In the response from Craig Baxter on Thursday he said that the initial report was "premature and mischievous". He contacted the regulator to say "it weren't us Guv" in being behind the story as well as the Telegraph for not beiing clear that they are only at stage 1 in development of the field (Kraken gas tie-back) and full development is far away. I doubt the author of the second piece (Liam Halligan, Telegraph 14 April) would have had to change his copy much. It all stems from the company presentation of the 28 March which mentioned the gas tieback and just about scrapes into "announced last week" category.

It could be just 2 journalists trying to create interest in a story and maybe attract comment to what is effectively a non-story. I imagine there are ongoing environmental impact assessments going on for Bressay and Bentley prior to moving toward the next stage of feasibility which is kinda confirmed by the need to contact NSTA.

I'm treating it positively as the story is coming to us - not from us. You can't stop people talking and speculating. If it puts pressure on the politicians and regulator I'm all for it.

I agree with Sekforde (12:00) that we are in intensive talks but who with? It might surprise people but CB probably doesn't know who with either. He reminded us that he is not on the board several times. His guesses will be better than ours and it is possible that he stumbled on the other party or was told something in private that breached a confidence. Sometimes we are told things we'd rather not hear. Not in a bad way but it can compromise you if you ever had to say on oath; I didn't know. It also means you can't be held responsible for a leak.

It doesn't mean CB is unhappy with the situation other than he might worry about his job safety. But he keeps his integrity and I for one was impressed by his handling of the presentation.

We've had some guesses on here. What about taking us private? Unlikely but an outside bet imo. Ineos haven't been mentioned. I don't see them with us but I reckon they're involved in deals because that's what they do. They are contrarian and would give a big boost to the sector if they make new investments in the UKCS. I wonder if there is any potential synergy between us and Petrofac. Spirit is run by an ex employee of EnQuest, Neil McCulloch and Centrica were interested in divestment but I haven't followed them. AB says the number of players is reducing but there is still the possibility of a surprise. I'm thinking that the Telegraph's Jonathan Leake got a sniff of something but can't get anything on record. CB spoke to him but JL really wants to hear something at board level and that ain't gonna happen.

I could ramp this further but the signals are all there if you know what to look for. It could take until October but these things are drawn out but seem to finish in a rush. Of course things can always go wrong but I can't think of a reason to SELL EnQuest. Not when ADNOC considered a BP takeover due to ridiculous UK valuations. The renewable movement is conflating with the Cass gender review. Both involve the manipulation of young people. That's what happens when movements are fuelled by activism instead of science.

Summer is coming.

*Wrexham 6 - Forest Green Rovers 0 (could vegan pies have anything to do with it?))

The good news is you're probably not but holding UK O&G stocks can induce similar symptoms - I think the medical term is "fungibility". There is no known cure for either it seems.

11 April from Doomberg: "On an equivalent energy content basis, the price of a barrel of oil should be roughly six times that of a million BTUs of natural gas. Accounting for the complexity of handling natural gas, oil has historically oscillated between 10-20 times natural gas. As of the time of this writing, it stands at 45" followed by the fact that spot prices for natural gas are negative. Suggesting that gas is a dirt cheap byproduct of oil in the US and the arbitrage is to power everything by gas and the oil price will collapse.

11 April from Goehring & Rozencwajg: "We believe today’s North American natural gas market resembles that uranium market: despite widespread investor pessimism, it too is about to slip into “structural deficit”. Careful research and a differentiated outlook may reward the enterprising natural gas investor just as large profits accrued to the uranium investor back in 2018."

It got me thinking. I was unaware that NG was negative in the US but I don't take the Doomberg view. I've said it before that a glut is often a precursor to a shortage. Clever money strategises but getting timing right is impossible. For Doomberg to be right you've got to fight the ESG headwinds AND spend huge Capex. The Permian and associated US plays aren't farmed and husbanded in the same way that other countries practise. They still follow the 'gold-rush' spirit of mining. Anyway, I'll stop there behind the cliche of O&G - "it's complicated".

Following the success of HS2 the government is now getting involved in "anticipatory investment". This is to be applauded because they know more than us and the voters like to see things being built. This is why we shouldn't be concerned that energy bills which were rising before the Ukraine invasion show NO signs of coming down as promised. The government will shortly be handing the baton over to the Labour Party with Ed Miliband doing the last lap with a sprint to 2030. Thank goodness we'll soon have a government that can "anticipate" the future.

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/04/12/eu-to-spend-trillions-on-net-zero-grid-expansion/#respond

*If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. -Derek Bok, lawyer and educator (b. 22 Mar 1930)

I came across this whilst going through some old stuff. This was the shared ownership of SVT a year ago.

EnQuest – c.13%

CNR – c.25%

Taqa – c.25%

NEO – c.10%

Shell – c.10%

Total – c.9%

BP – c.6%

Others – c.2%

It's a jungle out there monkey.

I discounted the idea of us buying Neo assets because Craig Baxter said yesterday that he "was not aware of anything in the Norwegian sector". However, Neo's assets are in the UKCS so still a possibility. My own feeling is that we could be in for a surprise. Q. How do you eat an elephant? A. One bite at a time".

What is to stop us buying a percentage of (say) Neo's assets. Maybe the Harbour template might be interesting. We replace Premier in a deal ; the difference being we are healthy and would retain senior management. There's not a lot of difference (to me) between HitecVision and EIG. The senior partners and shareholders can get their money early via swaps as EIG did with Harbour. Then there's the ENI/Ithaca deal that has stalled. For every potential deal in the UKCS you have to run it past EnQuest. The peer group has considerably reduced.

The Magnus deal took 18 months of negotiations to complete. On same timeframe I reckon we'll hear something within 6 months so October at latest.

Excellent presentation. I especially enjoyed the last part when he said we are geared for GROWTH. That is what has been missing across the sector and with us in particular. If you don't have growth then just sell the stock short and deposit the cash. Lose half a percent and gain five percent. That's all the algobots and professionals do. Remove growth and you're always at risk on the downside. Our turn now.

Summer is coming.

EPL is because we are in a desperate state financially and it was expedient to attack the 'evil profit gouging O&G majors". The likes of Greta and Al Gore outweighed industry professionals. The "climate" scientists are a mixed bunch but the science is far, far from being proven and it is fair to say that even if it is a partial threat sometimes the cure is worse than the climate impact. This is becoming apparent to the public and the 'renewable' industry is indefensible on a cost basis. The public care about cost. They care about the environment too but it is better than it has ever been in regards to health, water etc.. My poor old gran could never have got a hip replacement. Just present the public with the real situation and not impossible dreams. Starmer's support (imo) of renewables is more a sop to the extreme left of the Labour Party. They have always put ideology in first place. I wonder if Starmer regrets telling the world that renewables are 9X cheaper than "imported fossil fuels" at Davos 2023. If we continue on Ed's pathway we'll soon only have imported O&G and it ain't as cheaper than the homegrown reserves - it comes with increased emissions and brings much less revenue. The public won't like that.

Great posts today BTW.

Isn't it a Westerly wind? The reduction in interest rates isn't happening as fast as they would like and they have problems that Biden cannot impact. Housing and gas (petrol). You can't do stop gaps by building houses quickly but they are talking of SPR releases. These don't scare me any longer because they are short term. Investment in O&G has been woefully low and the release is only related to US November elections. Hi IRA give aways are running into obstacles too. I remember when everybody was talking about ESG and "green" investments. Amazing how quickly the iinvestment climate changes and returns come back into vogue. The subsidy cupboard is looking pretty bare in the UK.

I'm happy that we'll have $90+ oil for the next few years. Certainly long enough to get Bressay going.