Member Info for romaron

This message board is a "four-ale bar" just as Lloyds of London began as a tea house. I can assure you that in any hostelry in London or elsewhere frequented by business people don't stick to discussing interest rates or the price of raw materials. Access here is FREE and when something is valued at zero then often that is what the information is too. If someone can give me access to information behind a paywall I'll take it. This isn't Investor's Chronicle or Bloomberg.

We even have humour on here sometimes (Juan-monkey) which does cheer me up.

The following is a text I received on Saturday from my oldest pal who gives me earache whenever we meet for getting him invested in EnQuest (£5k but he was always a tightwad).

"When we were stranded in Kuwait in the Marriot Hotel we were with people on their way to oil conference in Dubai. Chatted about EnQuest they were all very positive. They worked for various companies in Aberdeen. A couple were from Worley Services and another company shared the offices in Aberdeen with EnQuest. All were positive about extraction in Cambo and Kraken etc. I got a good vibe, but they get paid regardless and go on jollies to the Gulf. I think the other one was Weatherford or something"

He added that they were all pretty bullish. It surprised him (and me) because he is a very cautious investor and jumpy. I've known him for over 50 years and he would have been looking for bad vibes.

Totally off topic and for anyone who doesn't want to read this stuff the filter button is right next to the 'Share Chat' button.

Redbuffet what gives you the right to demand we stay on topic? I'd rather see some rubbish than miss information that might form part of my decision making . The general background is important and several posters aren't from or based in the UK. They might find this interesting so I suggest you look away now.

This morning the Laura Kuenssberg programme on BBC was devoted to climate and Net Zero. It was biased (imo) against the O&G industry with Chris Packham and the head of CCC Chris Stark although LK did mention this https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/09/climate-change-committee-chris-stark-net-zero/

What I found most interesting though was that Claire Coutinho turned up to argue for the Tories but Labour sent Shabana Mahmood the shadow Justice Secretary. Where is Ed?

The movement against Net Zero has run its course and repeating slogans just makes the likes of Packham and Stark look silly and out of touch. I mentioned this in my Overton window post (19 April 06:55) and I don't think it strange that both Packham and Greta are on the spectrum.

*If you find any of this O/T Redbuffet there is a Filter facility that I find useful for posters that irritate me.

Https://davidturver.substack.com/p/national-grid-propaganda?utm_source=substack&publication_id=1285567&post_id=143632592&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=lx6e9&triedRedirect=true

"JPMorgan said changing the world’s energy system “is a process that should be measured in decades, or generations, not years”.

But Ed knows better.

"Only Labour has a plan to get bills down and make sure we are never again left so exposed, with a sprint for cheap, clean power by 2030, insulating 19 million cold, drafty homes, and establishing GB Energy, our publicly-owned energy company." May 2023 'X'.

If EnQuest was a city we'd be Gaza. At least the bombing has stopped and the rebuilding can begin.

Typo - Dr Helen Webberley (not Hilary)

There are 3 brave women involved in this: Dr. Hilary Cass, JK Rowling and now Janice Turner but of course there are countless others. I even give a shout-out to the Tory party for stopping the SNP’s headlong woke rush into Gender Recognition Reform with the section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998.

I am totally supportive of the children and parents of children with trans issues and wish them nothing but love. What I cannot stand by and watch is using children as guinea-pigs on what according to the Cass Review is either unproven or plain quackery in some cases. Who knows what effect these pre-puberty drugs will have and you only have to look at the manipulation through social-media that influences the young and always has. It is more pronounced (imo) in young women and pre-pubescent girls are even more know-all than boys (we all grew up with them). My reason for posting is not about the trans issue, important as it is, but the appearance of our friend Ed Miliband. Once again he has proven to be on the wrong side of a massive woke shift. The Overton window is another name for “sea-change” and just as the trans issue was driven by wokery so too has the “climate emergency”. To question the mainly young activists is to be immediately called a “climate denier.”

I question Ed Miliband’s judgement. He can’t get out of this one. He gave Dr Hilary Webberley a platform and an air of authenticity. He is irresponsible in his woke ideological crusades.

More importantly the Overton window now covers climate change. The world is changing in our favour. I’m not a climate denier and we have to be careful with the world’s resources but the benefits of oil and gas have transformed our lives for the better. A higher standard of living and longer life could not have been achieved without cheap and abundant fossil fuels.

The moment the Cass report was published the Overton window lurched: everything Tavistock whistleblowers and journalists had been ostracised for saying was suddenly mainstream. It’s tempting to list the cowards, fools, liberal sheep, airhead celebrities, who shilled for Mermaids; atheists, humanists, blow-hard podcasters and “fearless” radio stars, right-on male comics who relished the chance to scream at women and spineless Labour politicians, all now claiming that Cass is what they believed all along.

I’ll allow myself the luxury of two names. First ED MILIBAND, who in November 2017 devoted his ‘Reasons To Be Cheerful’ podcast to trans issues. Not only did he scorn all opponents of self-ID as “bonkers” but he invited on Dr Helen Webberley, the child-hormone-prescribing doctor who ran a private clinic with her husband (who has been struck off the medical register). I wrote to Miliband privately, linking to articles explaining the effect of her drug regime. “Of course I don’t believe in sterilising children!” thundered this condescending know-all. [she then goes on about Baroness Hunt an ex CEO of Stonewall]

*Janice Turner – Notebook – The Times April 18 2024

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5tuqlYzqMLQliAgzM1Xifl

Spotify advert Nov 2017 Transgender Rights are Human Rights

Sorry Zippy you can't just waltz in and make claims monopolising imbecilic politicians North of the border. Certainly not while we have Ed. He's upset too. Tonight he posted on 'X'

"This is a devastating admission of failure from the SNP-Green government in Scotland - one that will leave bills higher for longer, energy jobs continuing to flow overseas, and households and businesses across Scotland vulnerable to Putin’s whims."

I don't want to appear triumphant but it looks like we've trumped you in the ideological claptrap stakes.

Màiri Louise McAllan is a Scottish politician serving as Cabinet Secretary for Wellbeing Economy, Net Zero and Energy since 2024. She previously served as Cabinet Secretary for Transport, Net Zero and Just Transition from 2023 to 2024 and Minister for Environment, Biodiversity and Land Reform from 2021 to 2023.

All that experience and she's still just a bairn (31). Perhaps now she'll have to get a job and learn about the real world.

*Key words check: they're all there and form part of the juststopoil entrance exam.

Morocco to UK interconnector project sees 20% cost hike to £24bn

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/morocco-to-uk-interconnector-project-sees-20-cost-hike-to-24bn-17-04-2024/

Sunlight getting more expensive and they still haven't got over the technical problem called "nighttime". I hear on the grapevine that even U.E.A. (Dubai) is having second thoughts and investigating hydropower.

Net Zero Watch applauds Humza Yousaf’s climate leadership

Campaign group Net Zero Watch has welcomed the Scottish Government’s decision to abandon its decarbonisation targets.

Net Zero Watch director Andrew Montford said:

“The SNP and their Green partners are the first administration to face up to reality, but they won’t be the last. The era of virtue-signalling climate targets is coming to an end. Humza Yousaf is showing himself a real climate leader.”

Net Zero Watch head of policy Harry Wilkinson said:

“Most politicians across Europe still have their heads in the sand. They will have to change course eventually, but until they do their decarbonisation dogma will continue to wreak havoc in their economies.”

----------------

Reality can be a bitter pill to swallow. Even so Yousaf will probably just ignore this congratulatory message

Does anybody really think that Labour will start with an anti-business agenda? Starmer is suspect (power first - ask Corbyn) but he'd lose Rachel Reeves in a heartbeat if he tried to attack investment or alienate business. O&G isn't the soft target it was even a few months ago. Miliband has the Unions (or so popular theory goes) but they {The Unions] tolerate the ideologists until it hits jobs and pay-packets; then it is a different story. Talk is cheap but it doesn't hurt to remind them what they've said. They are also highly skilled in turning 180 degrees and blaming the decision on somebody else. The word "hypocrisy" is interchangeable with "expediency" in the political lexicon. I also think Labour will want some good headlines as soon as they are elected and maybe the Tories will surprise us with some mitigation on EPL? Don't forget it is the Tories that scuppered us.

"The Labour Party announced on 8 February that they are dropping their pledge to spend £28bn per year on “green investment”.

As part of the briefings around this announcement, the following comments on the windfall tax were reported in the Press.

Labour will introduce a proper windfall tax on the excess profits of oil and gas companies, o we can invest in the clean power we need to cut bills for families.

Labour will fix the holes in the Energy Profits Levy by:

Increasing the rate to 78%, the same rate of tax as in Norway.

Ending the loopholes in the levy that funnel billions back to oil and gas giants.

Extend the sunset clause in the windfall tax until the end of the next parliament, provided there continue to be windfall profits.

Together, these changes would raise £10.8bn over the next five years from 2024-25 to help fund the Green Prosperity Plan.

This amount is based on current OBR forecasts. The amount raised will depend on outturn oil and gas prices and production levels, as well as the level of investment and the amount offset against taxation.

Of course, there is no guarantee that these measures will be introduced if Labour are elected this year.

The 78% rate is not new, but interestingly Labour has in the past said that the tax will be “backdated”, but this pledge was not part of the briefing."

https://cwenergy.co.uk/green-investment-pledge/

I wonder if this is connected to the Telegraph story? One of the main suspects must be Viaro who own RockRose. Of course Labour may just ignore the story. Be interesting to see if the Telegraph pick it up.

"On February 8, as part of its Green Prosperity Plan, Labour pledged a “proper windfall tax” on the industry, extending the existing levy and removing investment allowances currently in place.

Industry experts have warned that would quash any new investment in the sector and see tens of thousands of job cuts."

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68841141

Nice picture of NIcola and Greta together with a Ugandan climate activists.

Amazing the number of activists on the spectrum (Greta , Chris Packham and don't tell me that Nicola and Roger Hallam are normal). Some of the regular activists would also struggle with a psychological assessment.

*Just think of the tragedy of teaching children not to doubt. -Clarence Darrow, lawyer and author (18 Apr 1857-1938)

"Brigitte Amoruso at Make UK, the trade body for UK manufacturers, said: “Although the UK was at the forefront of wind technology innovation, the Government failed to keep the supply chain within the UK for wind turbines and solar panels.

“As a result, these aspects were outsourced to competing nations such as China and Canada. This is a long standing issue for the UK which must be addressed."

Solved at a stroke by Ed. Just mask subsidies through a public company shortly to be formed. I'd say that we gave been prescient in staying out of the race. We cannot compete with China and the only company that once competed with them actually offshores to China and other countries. That company is Vestas based in Denmark. Denmark has a reputation for glossy expensive to die for designs and technology (Bang & Olufsen) but the bottom line and cheaper manufacturers is a cruel mistress. Private investment isn't attracted to businesses that are fundamentally flawed on a cost basis but will invest if guaranteed subsidies compensate.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262350/largest-wind-turbine-manufacturers-worldwide-by-capacity/

*Vestas lost $1.2 bn 2022 and made a profit of $249m last year. But Ed knows how to do it better.

Hi Timebomb (18:35). The rebase was more to do with lowered debt, longer maturities and tidying up the balance sheet not moving out of the UK. He was suggesting that it is from here as a base we can have lift off. As a first step I would like to see some upgrades from analysts.

Thanks Red Buffet. Blame me. I was sure it was AB but it was Craig around 36.00.

There are a lot of companies with tax losses and that I suppose is because the product [oil] doesn't change much and isn't like cassettes moving on to discs or a product just disappearing. Failures don't go completely to the wall but have some residual balance that doesn't dissipate into the ether as happens in other industries. I believe there is also delayed depreciation credits that play a role (above my pay grade). They could become worthless I suppose if oil production was immediately banned but that won't happen. Licenses don't seem to have an end date. That means that if you have survived the last decade in the NS you will have tax credits, It is complex but these credits are really only of value in a high spot price scenario and most companies have been treading water or losing money most recently.

M - I think the other news is important. Mitch Flegg and Neil McCulloch are board members of OEUK. Serica have an investors presentation on 24th April. MF was quite outspoken about EPL in the past. Things are getting very interesting.

Timebomb. Good point. Politics are never very far away.