Member Info for romaron

And this from EV too under 'Building capacity in UK offshore wind requires a global view' -

"The announcement that Miliband will co-chair the Offshore Wind Industry Council, rather than delegating to a more junior minister as has been the norm, was also welcomed as a sign of support."

From a blatant promotion of UK Offshore Wind by Morten Sojborg, chief executive at Turner & Townsend JUMBO . All talk of 'potential' so expect a call for more subsidies and investment to fulfill that 'potential'.

From Energy Voice today in an article chiding the Scottish government against a presumption of NO new O&G development in the NS by the Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce:

"Following the UK government’s commitment to extending the hated Energy Profits Levy “windfall tax”, oil and gas firms including the likes of Equinor (OLS:EQNR), Ithaca (LON:ITH) and Shell (LON:Shel) are facing the further uncertainty of legal challenges in UK courts.

Equinor and Shell are currently awaiting the result of a hearing held in Edinburgh over downstream, or scope three, emissions. Before Christmas the two firms revealed a shock announcement to merge their North Sea assets, creating the UK’s largest oil and gas operator in the face of uncertain legal rules."

Any idea when we'll hear anything?

i spread the message elsewhere and i've copied this from a post on not a lot of people know that i made earlier:

"so much good stuff here and expert input so i’m gonna lower the debate. gas is demonised and is actually pretty cheap in qatar etc. and henry hub is around $4 mmbtu today in the midst of a cold spell. the same can be applied to tobacco. green leaf is c. $4 but by the time it is turned into a pack of cigarettes that has risen to around $200. i don’t know the exact price of water but a pint of beer is around £5 where i drink and that is largely water.

i’ve posted this video many times and still the politicians haven’t been held to account for their lies and yet they still pick on donald trump:

https://x.com/netzerowatch/status/1830995939496206552

basically there are 2 sides and the only way to support the enormous costs of renewables is to demonise fossil fuels and cheat on cost comparisons and they’ve been very successful. fossil fuels have done more good than harm and lifted billions out of servitude. in fact there’s an argument that the fall in co2 has been arrested and was getting close to the level where plant and human life ceases.

we have 2 extremes. could you persuade a spurs supporter that ****nal are the better side to support or turn around a seventh day adventist. the technology advances that ed miliband is relying on fly in the face of physics and the imminent second coming is just as likely. faith is like that and religion has been spouting promises that the gullible suck up forever. it wasn’t so long ago that we burnt eccentric old ladies at the stake for bad weather. now we use agw and have replaced ‘indulgences’ with carbon credits and cfds.

"In The Trouble with Atheism, Liddle argued that atheists can be as dogmatic and intolerant as the adherents of religion. Liddle said, "History has shown us that it's not religion that's the problem, but any system of thought that insists that one group of people are inviolably in the right, whereas the others are in the wrong and must somehow be punished."[23] Liddle argued, for example, that eugenic policies are the logical consequence of dogmatic adherence to Darwinism."

I accept the above and that many will disagree with me. We cannot hope to convert many juststopoil supporters or those whose job relies on the green blob. History shows us that hardened views change over time because the propaganda persuades but also fades and what you’re left with is a pragmatic and selfish decisions. We all supported Ukraine at the outset but now kinda accept that a negotiated peace is the best worse option. The mass of public are persuaded by incessant slogans – e.g. £22bn black hole and cheap renewables – but after a time when these arguments pass their sell-by-dates and sensible people ask why are they relying on hackneyed repeats and not solving the issues. Your bank account becomes the ultimate arbiter. I think O&G and renewables are reaching tilt territory.

*this post was generated by AoK and his reaction to jam. The same happens to me when Cadbury print ‘NEW’ on a chocolate bar.

Jam tomorrow. So AI can change physics then?

Https://substack.com/@doomberg/note/c-84891345?utm_source=feed-email-digest

So you’re a virtue signalling Democrat who’s made his money from Tech and Green (subsidised) Initiatives. You live among your ilk in Los Angeles and pat yourself on the back as you tuck into your quinola salad. Life is fine without fossil fuels and nature’s bounty is all around. Perfect, except Nature didn’t agree to be bound by human decisions.

Your expensive million dollar plus (wooden) beach hut on Malibu Beach has been destroyed by flames. But not to worry you can build another one cheaply as before. Mainly wood with bitumen shingles on the roof (a flying ember landed on it). Your house in the hills is more of a problem. By protecting the fauna and ecology of the land you’ve allowed the forest to become denser by a factor of 2+ and forestry control has been abandoned due to cash restraints. The same applies to water and there hasn’t been a new reservoir built in over 50 years. The Delta Smelt needs protection but it’s too late to save the Bison (and a lot of Native Americans).

Apparently the impact of the fire has been blamed on ‘climate change’. So to avoid a repeat of these fires we need to increase the move away from fossil fuels and on to renewables. Nuclear has been banned in California with one plant remaining and due to go soon. Never mind, hiccups occur in all new systems and you can always import energy from other states if renewables don’t step up to the plate.

All fine except the wife and grandparents aren’t happy. The house in the hills is built of better fire-resistant materials (called bricks in UK) but you’ll struggle for insurance. Escape routes from fire are being better sign-posted but hard to read when you’re panicking and can’t see through the smoke. The ecologists refuse to allow nature to be interfered with as there is always an endangered newt or insect that deserves life as much as your children. So the forest is allowed to encroach untouched and the billions saved by not improving water access (population doubled in 50 years) means that the aim to forest golf courses can now go ahead. Desert plants to replace lawns that need watering and who needs a swimming pool anyway. Our great grandparents didn’t.

So stand easy. As before. What’s that rumble? – ignore it. But we’re on the San Andrea fault. So what, we have conquered nature; relax.

McDaniel have just issued their forecasts for 2025. They have Brent at 76.50. Their average for 2024 was 80.50

https://mcdan.com/price-forecasts/

They also produce an average of 3 consultants (McDaniel, GLJ and Sproule). It's similar for 2025 but they don't build in any (I guess) inflationary rises for following years.

Https://www.americaunwon.com/p/why-los-angeles-burned

"pre settlement it was c. 64 trees an acre. Now more like 160. Last major reservoir was completed in 1979 when population was 23m. 50 year's later the population is 39m. In 2014 voters overwhelmingly backed a $7.5m bond for new reservoirs and dams."

I think they call themselves juststopwater and they're twinned with an outfit in the UK.

And BlackRock had to do that. Apart from p*ssing off their clients involved with fossil fuels the banks would have been applying pressure and threatening to go to more "cooperative" institutions. Mammon never goes out of fashion. They toyed with 'woke' and are now going back to the day job.

Last night the BBC had the usual climate activists on discussing the forest fires in Ca. Naturally Caroline Lucas was one of the panellists. She made a telling comment that the fires weren't burning in forests but in the city of L.A. So the argument about forestry management was not the truth.

Well, the forests were there first and you have to clear them to build homes and there still appeared to be plenty of dry greenery left. Some call it gardens and landscaping. Homes also tend to be made of a lot of wood that needs to be DRY. Indeed, some trees only germinate after a fire. This is imo a bit like complaining of flooding when you live on what was once a flood plain or move closer to the sea. I believe a lot of Holland is below sea level. They understand nature there.

My point is that nature has a habit of returning and is likely to ignore you.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0026nmw/newsnight-the-inferno-that-woke-the-world

From 18:30 the only dissenting voice and he's American. If you can face it listen to Caroline Lucas @17:25

Https://watt-logic.com/2025/01/09/blackouts-near-miss-in-tighest-day-in-gb-electricity-market-since-2011/

This particular near miss appears to have caught the NESO by surprise, because demand turned out to be 3 GW higher than anticipated three days before. And as Kathryn points out, alarm bells are already ringing for Friday evening, when winds are forecast to be even lighter than last night.

Sooner than you think Dumbly. I was watching the BBC News at 10 last night and had to wait until this morning to make sure I heard it right. About the problems RR is facing with the Maths not working in her favour with heavier borrowing costs. Commenting, Faisal Islam, their Economics Editor had this to say about self-imposed fiscal rules "government says if necessary we'll adjust our policy stressing spending rather than taxes" followed later by "maybe this idea of borrowing lots of money to fund the green transition, right or wrong, is going to cost government more."

I know that from his position FI will have deep relationships with politicians and we know they leak remorselessly. He may only be on the screen for 3 minutes but has spent days and weeks researching and meeting with individuals from business and government. This was NOT coincidental imo. The pressure on the green fantasy is building towards breaking point. Last night was a fissure opening. FI would not have mentioned the 'green transition' if others hadn't. He's not a policy maker; he's a reporter!

Listen from 21:00 https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0026p1v/bbc-news-at-ten-08012025

I watched this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2H0OxmF7fak a talk by Dr. Patrick Moore. A Greenpeace founder. He could show juststopoil how true protest is done. The original founders of Greenpeace actually put their lives at real risk. He drove an inflatable between a Russian factory whaling fleet and escaping whales. His dedication and humanitarianism is of the highest order and his love of nature shows through. But he left Greenpeace. It isn't so Green any longer and certainly isn't peaceful. It is now lost among all the other grifts. At 1:08:10 he describes Michael E Mann and his hockey stick theory "total fakery" and I agree.

The Steamboat Institute achieved the highest compliment when DeSmog said about Steamboat; " the organization "has regularly provided a platform for climate change deniers and fossil fuel proponents to spread their messages."

I know it's long but it is very watchable and in pretty simple language. If you get the time you'll thank me after. This is a man who really knows about polar bears, sea ice and coral reefs. He debunks all the crackpot propaganda that the gullible accept.

Remarkable loyalty from Swedish investors. Like the Sots the Scandinavians are renowned for their (ahem) frugality. I've forgiven them for kidnapping our womenfolk and leaving the farm gate open (it was a long time ago) and hope their appreciation of value is rewarded.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4RHqpUIrij8

Encouraging but "running with the fox and hunting with the hounds" comes to mind. One of the Principal Group Members of GFANZ is Hendrik du Toit, Founder and CEO of Ninety One. Never heard of them? Probably not but you'd know their Chairman, a certain Gareth Penny.

Nothing better to do I looked at today's trades. The 1,400,000 @ 13.70 10:59:27 stands out. IMO it was done earlier in the day and part of the other side (or same side but I doubt) are the trades around 08:26. I don’t follow closely but there was some weakness in the market possibly off the back of Serica’s reporting. I think the 1.4m is clever money. They aren’t interested in buying at 13.65 and selling at 13.95 or frigging about with a cluster of deals. But there are people and bots that facilitate and specialise and the market-makers will use them when it suits. Because selling at the top and buying at the bottom is rarer than anonymous posters make out I’d say the 1.4m is a buy and it was the smaller amounts that helped tidy up the trade. You don’t have to report immediately and nobody pays a lot of attention to a 50,000 trade. Maybe the buyer wants more when there is temporary depth in the market for EnQuest stock. I’d like to think so.

Claire Coutinho, the shadow energy secretary, said: “No other major economy is shutting down its domestic oil and gas production. Ed Miliband’s ideological opposition to the North Sea is going to cost the country £12bn in tax receipts, thousands of jobs and leave us dependent on foreign imports with higher emissions.

“It’s complete insanity.”

“The UK should be thankful that its North Sea waters contain such bountiful resources, not penalise itself for its good fortune,”

At the same time the US is the biggest O&G producer in the world. Along with Norway they have one of the highest GDP per capita in the world. Norway is 4th and the US is 6th - based on productivity and not tax havens (Monaco is No.1). It is no coincidence that energy got them there.

We are No.20 along with Greenland.

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

*apparently I'm right wing now because I object to children being abused. Did Starmer just call me and millions of others 'deplorables'? I despise Tommy Robinson and his lawbreaking. Many ethnic communities including Muslims believe that children should be protected and come first.

"The move is considered mostly symbolic, as it will not impact areas where oil and gas development is currently underway, and mainly covers zones where drillers have no important prospects, including in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans."

Biden and Miliband. Both think they will leave a legacy. One is senile - the other has attached his identity to the climate change movement; his inability to see any other argument would be too painful.

Thanks for that Zippy. For the 27% increase to 15p to be correct the upgrade was written when our sp was 11p. He is going from the numbers but what we really need is clarity on the future of the NS. He is an analyst and not a tipster. I think it far too cautious but what you'd expect from the dwindling band of analysts on the UK O&G sector.