Member Info for romaron

Https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/11/14/lord-moynihan-of-chelsea-demands-cost-benefit-analysis-of-net-zero/#respond

There is plenty in the public domain but it is almost a degree course. I post stuff I find but the public want short soundbites (and I don't blame them). The dumbest person can say - "but why aren't my bills getting lower?"

AoK what you ask for I've posted links to in the past. There is no simple answer because the subject is drowned in false equivalency.

yes, such a thing exists. a kinda oscars for the ugly and it took place last week. organised by the spectator and a more light-hearted look at politics where mps of all parties mingle and it looks like a lot of drinks downed. mps are always gagging for attention and a free lunch. they also know it is in their interest to suck up to the judges (journalists).

rayner was named 'politician of the year'; farage 'newcomer of the year award (8th attempt). holding court was sir paul marsall and either side of him (left farage, right sweeting) and in the tradition of these things a certain amount of 'roasting' was done of mps although i haven't found a list yet. there was even a dinner-after-party famous for indiscretions. i don't know the rules on reporting and 'off the record quotes' but i found this piece of an article in the st by tim shipman who is a quality journalist intriguing. i'll quote it and you can make your own minds up. its context is the lack of inspiration from starmer in a tiktok world.

"streeting’s speech to the spectator dinner – a carefully rehe****d series of barbs roasting his own government – was telling. streeting called pat mcfadden the “deputy prime minister” while the real holder of that office, angela rayner, sat feet away. following her visit to the vatican, he joked: “that was one hell of a long confession!” streeting then mocked rachel reeves’s brief switch in her hair colour: “she promised to be britain’s first green chancellor and she turned out to be britain’s first ginger chancellor.” that joke, at least, was approved by reeves’s aides and streeting did go on to praise her policy efforts.

but some colleagues, including the energy secretary ed miliband, would have been squirming. streeting said kemi badenoch, the tory leader, was “repeating all the same mistakes we made in opposition: trashing her party’s own record; protests over power; talking to the members, not the voters. kemi, if you carry on like this you’ll be energy secretary in ten years’ time”.

rayner was no less revealing, claiming she would avoid making cutting comments in case she “let wes off the hook”, before provocatively noting: “wes, you know we’re in competition.” she hastily added: “we’re not really.” most labour mps think that, if starmer stood down, a leadership contest would be between her and the health secretary. the fact that she seemed willing to allude to this just five months into starmer’s premiership was noteworthy.”

i’ll add my thoughts later to see if others concur.

Is there a parallel with Syria. Also from the same newspaper: “Normally empires collapse gradually and then suddenly,” said a Western diplomat with years of experience in the Middle East.

The Empire of Ed is entering dangerous territory. The barbarians are at the gate and the bloated bureaucrats of Net Zero and their believers are getting very nervous.

I think there are similarities between us and the Syrian rebels. When Assad had the full support of Iran and Russia he appeared invincible. Net Zero was crowing about its successes and we had juveniles and deluded pensioners blocking our roads. The public was drowned in rhetoric about the fantastic 'models' and 'accepted science' which it never has been and forecasts are doctored figures that never materialise. False prophets were everywhere and given far more air time than those who actually keep the world's wheels turning.

Assad could be gone in a matter of weeks. That's how quick a fundamental truth can move and artificial systems fail if they're not economically efficient. The costs are coming through and the proponents of NZ will soon appear as out of touch as Alistair Campbell did on QT with his crusade for Brexit reversal. Doesn't matter if he's right or wrong, the caravan has moved on and that is what is happening to NZ. Trump really is the nail in their coffin.

We are many now. I was the boring f*cker in the pub who was obsessed with the delusion being played on the public with renewables. Now I'm the one happy to change the subject. In many ways our work is done. A movement is gaining traction. The facts speak for themselves. Most expensive electricity in the WORLD! Deindustrialisation of the UK at pace. You cannot fool the public all the time.

The Unite union said that O&G workers in the N and NE of Scotland "cannot be sacrificed on the altar of Net Zero". But they still produce reports written by members of Uplift and the like that are thinly disguised political treatise against fossil fuels. They have refused (ignored) so far to tell me who the authors of their recent report on Renationalising Energy. If they were a government or local council I could file a FOI. It is blatant politicking by a section of the Union. I shall bring it up next week at 2 meetings. I expect to get kicked out by 'coming out' in support of fossil fuels.

Don't forget AB is a founder and has also received shares under various schemes. I've no idea but my guess would be sub 20p. If the price doubled he could be out at a profit. Not that I think he would accept such a low exit price. He is inured to dealing with the lawyers, consultants and politicians who take little risk but charge big fees or make life difficult for you. I do NOT see him taking the easy way out. It isn't in his genes. He knows how to play the long game. We survived a bond collapse (will Tullow?) and are in a much stronger position today. The macro situation like tectonic plates has moved towards us. Net Zero is going the same way as ESG, DEI and other 'woke' madness.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUctAwmQpJM

The EV title read "New Equinor tie up marks end of Shell as North Sea operator" and is merely a reflection of what is happening. No doubt at DESNZ and sister branches (Uplift, CCC, juststopoil) they're delighted. It is a pyrrhic victory because they'll lose the country. There isn't any possibility that they can afford or invent a solution for intermittency and the country will continue paying subsidies and sky high electricity prices. What happens when there is nobody else to blame or to scapegoat? There won't be a WFT because there won't be any revenue from O&G.

So the NS will go into mothballs and a new government may be able to resurrect the industry from life-support. The heat pumps are unaffordable; the equivalent of giving every home an EV and of course leaving almost 20% who live in flats with their gas or night storage heaters disenfranchised. Like all cults it will peak and many will wonder why they drunk the Kool-Aid.

Last night on QT I saw how out-of-touch Alistair Campbell was trying to blame the Right for Brexit. I voted remain and fell out with friends and family but it wasn't clear cut. Yes it was economically damaging but Europe ain't doing so well now and is ripping itself apart politically. Compared to them the UK is a safe-haven and to be admired. The immigration was defended by all except Farage but in all honesty we cannot take everybody on the flimsiest "refugee" status. The ECHR is poisoned by "woke" and we should leave a.s.a.p. When push comes to shove you look after your own. For all of those who want free borders I'll agree as long as they put up the illegals in their own homes and save the public purse.

I want Ed Miliband to drown in his own hubris and delusion. We'll survive at EnQuest because we've actually survived through worse and the British public can't be fooled all the time.

Breaking News: The Danish Energy Agency has received NO bids for building Denmark's largest supply of offshore wind turbines tender in Danish History. Maybe GB Energy is interested. Ed loves a challenge.

https://www.energy-supply.dk/article/view/1134284/ingen_onsker_at_byde_pa_havvindmolleparker_i_nordsoen?ref=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=daily

Yeah, Equinor have eaten our lunch. Best summary yet M from the FT imo. This from EV sounds like us:

"The two European supermajors revealed the news on Thursday morning that they would be bringing their UK oil and gas assets under one roof to form the UK North Sea’s biggest independent producer.

The joint venture is predicted to produce over 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day next year and includes ownership of stakes in Equinor’s Mariner, Rosebank and Buzzard fields and Shell’s Shearwater, Penguins, Gannet, Nelson, Pierce, Jackdaw, Victory, Clair and Schiehallion."

"Shell’s integrated gas and upstream director, Zoë Yujnovich, told Energy Voice that that the “value of the transaction” comes from the assets in operation today and those currently in construction across the portfolio and in order to leverage this, the IJV will look to extend the life of projects."

Apparently Equinor have tax losses of £6bn (FT). We have half that so we are of interest to the big boys.

Yesterday we had the intention of Shell and Equinor to have a JV to tidy up their NS assets. They face a declining basin along with everyone else in the UKCS. Two thoughts crossed my mind. These assets aren’t going to be up for grabs by the likes of EnQuest now and secondly, they must have tax credits the same as us unless they never made a loss or mistake in the myriad of fields they’ve invested in over the years. A plus and a minus. A short term future for the NS but is it confirmation that they see it as over and are going for the short term annuity approach? To me it is increased scale but only for a NS situation and is more a cost reduction and maybe maximising any tax credits (I’ve no idea how you’d find this out as the accounts of these 2 companies would only mention it in small print in the notes most likely). They could even be dressing it up to sell it a few years down the road?

I got diverted by wondering if the Kraken Waldof share might be going back to CNE. They [CNE] also have a pool of unused tax credits and need some NS exposure to use them. They are also owed $22.5m by Waldorf due (or expected?) in early 2025. An outlier but if we scoop up the Waldorf share as part of a bigger deal the 2025 date becomes important. CNE have largely Egyptian assets that aren’t particularly exciting. All these things take time and is just an example that the Waldorf and tax scenario is repeated all over the basin.

It appears clear that you need increased scale to maximise the fast declining NS. I’m not too worried about Labour any longer. They implemented it so will own it. They are a one-term government and if they carry on as they are they won’t even see out this term. The NS though does provide a cash-flow and respite for those lucky enough to have the requisite tax credits. An increased size will bring a higher credit rating and if 2 companies of roughly equal size merge wouldn’t their debt be effectively halved as a ratio?

I still think we will be involved with Tullow. Too many coincidences and they are definitely finished as a stand-alone company imo.

The forest was shrinking but the trees kept voting for the axe for the axe was clever and convinced the trees that because his handle was made of wood he was one of them – Ed Miliband a.k.a. “the axeman”

Uhm - Tullow bonds overnight fixing latest. The 1 Mar 2025 dropped 3.25 (S) and the 144A 3.75. To me it suggests that they are less confident of a repayment. The 15 May 2026 1.33 lower.

I just ran through the 1 Mar 2025 which is just under 3 months away. The YTM is scary - around 50%

A resolution is obviously needed. Time is not on their side.

I'm carrying on several conversations away from here. This was an email reply of mine to a question of 'why risky Africa?

"I wasn't considering it but a diversified larger O&G company makes sense. Harbour still have interests in UK. There are always companies around that have venture capital to play with and wouldn't be frightened of Tullow's debt which is 'distressed'. I stopped following TLW debt as I was using it as a guide to our HYNs. I last recorded them on 6 Sept 2024 and am quite surprised. They were all (4) 98-96.5. The 1 Mar 2025 have been funded by this https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/tullow-secures-400-million-five-year-debt-facility/

which adds to my thoughts that others will be involved. Maybe it is Glencore who Penny will definitely know. These companies think 10 years plus ahead. The remaining Notes are $1.8m due 15 May 2026 and in debt terms that is close. BUT. I am surprised that they are holding up relatively well. They trade at 88.66 which is a YTM of 20%. High but remember EnQuest went below 50 and (from memory) touched 35.00."

Forgot - could EnQuest Producer fit in somewhere?

Still thinking aloud. The debt scares me too. BUT. The synergies and potential are outstanding. We tend to think of named companies in O&G and totally forget the likes of CVC (Neptune) and EIG (Harbour). I doubt very much that EnQuest alone would want to get involved with this amount of debt but there are others who wallow in debt because it makes them a lot of money, often at the expense of equity holders, but life always goes on. I also see a synergy with immigration control. Cheap energy is an essential for all countries and I can see the less ideologically driven countries pushing aid by helping rather than the likes of Uplift and jso sitting in the road to ensure Africans continue to remain in energy poverty. Africans would swap in a heartbeat for our pollution and energy costs of 50 years ago.

I don't understand the delayed departure of Rahul Dhir and expect it is face-saving but he is already a lame duck CEO. He was obviously in the way and removing stubborn people is always messy if that was the case. As always debt holders are behind this and it always causes delays. I am nervous but at the same time hope we're involved.

Another investor emailed me with concerns over the Tullow Debt and best stick with using up the tax credits in the UKCS. This was my reply: "I think we can do both. And it might not only be us. Why not a 3rd party with financial muscle. Africa desperately needs fossil fuels. Let Ed disappear up his own ideology whilst we get involved with the real world. My daughter spent 2 weeks in Ghana and visited google there. They even have AI which puts some of our own companies in the stone age. I'm excited. "

We know a fair amount about Tullow and Jubilee. Listen here at 3:55 and again 6:40 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdjTi-uhoqI

Coincidences:

Jonathan Swinney is a consultant for EnQuest in the background.

2022 joins Tullow but appointment never materialised as merger with Carpricorn (Cairn)

Later same year deal breaks down.

Rahul Dhir was CEO of Tullow 2020 – present so knows JS well.

Gareth Penny appointed Chairman EnQuest Dec 2022 – specialist subject – “Africa, business and politics”.

Rosalind Kainyah appointed NED May 2024. Ghanaian.

There is a debt problem and a tax fight with Ghana that has resulted in the exit of the Tullow CEO but the rewards are staring us in the face. The amount of Tullow African production are small to the majors. On a personal note I would love us to get involved with Africa as they need us and it would be for the benefit of Africans as it has been for the UK in the past. The continent's total energy supply is wood and animal waste provided 52% of the TES of Africa in 2022. In many African countries this remains the prevalent source (e.g. Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, etc). Even in the continent’s largest economy, Nigeria, wood is still the single largest energy source. The human health cost of this is dreadful. The limitations it places on economic growth equally so.

Africa urgently needs more and better energy supply. Wind and solar today make a negligible contribution to Africa’s energy supply.

*maybe I was wrong about Mr Penny

Hi Pacman -several of us are known to the company but it gives us NO advantage. Maybe that is how it should be for DEI and ESG reasons plus the stock exchange rules. If you call IR you will get corporate speak BUT if will be in a friendly way - exactly how your MP or doctor's receptionist would reply. On that basis it probably isn't worth calling them.

A lot is being made of the fact that a deal is "imminent" and AB said possibly in 6 months at the AGM (end May). The Chairman isn't even that enthusiastic and was mentioning 12-18 months, I'm sure he is highly talented [the Chairman] with excellent contacts but I have yet to see any evidence.

We get one opportunity to grill the company and it is called the AGM. They are less evasive there as it is hard to blank a shareholder who has made the effort to attend. They still rush off though as Chairmen and CEO's are busy people don't you know. For the retail holder it is at best tokenism and they needed us once. A good sign is that they don't appear to need us now.

I'm only here because the CEO has skin in the game and we have such an inept government and opposition that they will surely stop at the cliff edge of impoverishment of the UK in the false religion of Net Zero.

Call IR if you wish but it really is a waste of time. You learn nothing. Clarity of a possible government action or accounting effects but Stevo and L7 are almost just as good without being terrified of breaching Stock Exchange rules. RNS's when released are bland press releases that have had all the excitement and encouragement to buy surgically removed.

AoK - check your decimal point. On AJ Bell the spread is closer to 1%.

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germanys-weak-winds-trigger-record-surge-gas-fired-power-maguire-2024-12-04/

"To plug the resulting generation gap, utilities lifted gas-fired electricity production from 5.34 terawatt hours (TWh) in October to 9.55 TWh in November, data from energy think tank Ember shows.

That was the largest ever monthly rise in German gas-fired generation, and was accompanied by a jump in coal-fired production to 20-month highs as utilities also had to offset a drop in solar generation to the lowest level this year."

You were right about coal Taverham just wrong Country but then isn't the EU just one big happy family?

Drax CFO to retire and 'spend more time with my family' - EU to miss heat pump target by massive margin

headlines today in Energy Voice. I liked this comment on heat pumps "The trade body blames the slowdown on changing policies and support schemes."

No mention that they are costly, rely on cheap electricity and will never be efficient on older properties without horrendously expensive retrofit and redecoration. The 20% who live in apartments are never mentioned.

Reboot, Reset who cares? Tomorrow Starmer is going to attempt to wriggle out of his five "missions". Maybe he's found another imaginary black hole as an excuse.

I'm only concerned with "Make Britain a clean energy superpower - to create jobs, cut bills and boost energy security with zero-carbon electricity by 2030, accelerating to net zero"

Encouraging comment s from Scotland where there is 'Anger' over Scottish budget plan to raid ScotWind Windfall. The renewable industry will be clutching its pearls claiming that it is unfair to claim back profits from low risk investment via subsidies. Let's hope the O&G industry has its tanks on the lawn ready for any announcement.