Member Info for romaron

Solar kicking in. Only 51.5% of electricity is gas powered.

Anybody charging at present have a 56.4% contribution from gas. Not that unusual.

I chose the title ‘phoney war’ because that is what it feels like with EnQuest. We know stuff is happening in the background but there’s little leakage of news. One problem is summed up in the recent update. It was terse and seemingly contemptuous of the retail investors (imo) but can also be read as a report that interrupts the bigger game being played and they were keeping their eye on the ball.

We’ve been here before. In stormier times we were regularly downgrading production. We couldn’t afford the maintenance that old fields require and as I was told in no uncertain manner at an AGM by AB that declines in the production were to be expected in ageing fields and high teens weren’t that unusual. We had equity raises and bond extension and interest adjustments. In September 2020 the HYNs were trading around 55.00 and that meant the interest rate was 30% +. Impairments made regular appearances and were normally brushed aside by retail investors but the professionals don’t ignore them.

This time it’s different imo. We aren’t seeing fresh impairments because the Government has just stopped short of turning off life-support. They’ve created enough damage for now and it is now time for Ed Miliband to produce by either cutting renewable subsidies or get electricity prices down. The tax rate of 78% is penal but also means you can have a 22% margin of profit. This is still better than many other industries and the NS basin isn’t as risky as other offshore sites. On top of that much of our NS production will be taxed at closer to 38% due to tax credits. I also expect our RBL to be increased as we take on more 2P reserves. These are the reverse of impairments and a healthy cash flow will endorse and enable. The current bonds have held up well (100.50) and were unaffected by the recent update. That’s a good sign. I expect a credit upgrade and the share price will reflect this as will the few remaining analysts in O&G with their target prices.

Our hub is the NS but there are also exciting opportunities in Asia. In the NS we are one of the few remaining operators of decent size. It could easily become a cash cow. I’m expecting good news.

*I used 55.00 for the HYN as that’s as far back as my records go but from memory they went as low as 35.00. Others will remember this also with the Retail Bonds. I remember picking some up around that level.

"The recent farce around the COP in Baku showed the conspiracy operating in plain sight. Stop the developing word developing with hydrocarbons, then invent a number of fake scares such as island states disappearing beneath the waves. Everyone knows this and most of the other scares are false as scientists have shown on numerous occasions, but no matter. Invent some ridiculous composite figure – say $250 billion a year, or $1.3 billion by 2035 – then pretend your taxpayers can be rinsed even though the only country that could conceivably afford it is leaving the party in January."

https://dailysceptic.org/2024/11/26/greenland-surface-temperatures-fall-for-20-years-in-further-blow-to-climate-alarm-narrative/

and this:

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/11/27/irenas-fake-wind-costs/

I'm drunk. I'll post tomorrow. Been out with a guy who has a small investment in ENQuest {he listened to me). Good to get out of the echo-chamber.

*For the technical. Couldn't decide between Greene King IPA or Timothy Taylor Landlord's. Anybody wanna a fight?

The call for another election got me digging. If you switch to the map view you can see that Ed Miliband is under pressure in N Doncaster his long time constituency. He stands out among cabinet members for this (5.25% votes out of 96,700 constituency) but he's still doing better than the 'baby of the house' Keir Mather in adjacent constituency Selby (home of Drax power station). There isn't necessarily a correlation in the Doncaster numbers but if taken on electorate turnout you'd have over 15% disaffected voters.

Keir Mather is a baby. 26 and never had a proper job. Him and Ed must get on like a house on fire. He got the gig due to the resignation of the Tory incumbent in 2023 which was tied up with Boris. I think Mather getting elected surprised everyone although Tories were having a bad time. I think it was more a reaction to Tory incompetence and Labour shoved in a young hopeful not expecting to win.

Labour have shown a 'tin ear' to opponents of NZ but now they are dangerously doing it to the very people who voted them in. That must be exploited.

I never meant to post the youtube link (20:14). I'd make a useless stalker.

Whilst here I have a question. Who do Labour hate - is it ICE vehicles or their owners?

If you're charging your EV at the moment it is powered 60% by gas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtCK-dMb-F8

Keep pretending you're saving the planet. About 15% is classed as 'renewable' ATM (I don't count biomass).

Today's Energy Voice:

"Norway’s Equinor (OSE:EQNR) is considering cutting 20% of the staff from its renewable energy division as it focuses on pursuing fewer new projects.

The move could amount to around 250 full-time job equivalents, a company spokesperson said.

The reductions will primarily come from the company exiting some early phase markets.

“We have decided to reduce the number of people working with renewables in Equinor,” a company spokesperson said.

Some of the people in these roles could be offered other positions in the company, meaning the number of people leaving Equinor could be lower.

The move comes amid challenges to the global offshore wind sector as inflation, rising interest and strained supply chains have forced up prices, forcing developers to renegotiate prices or abandon projects altogether.

Previous reports had said that Equinor was discussing downsizing its renewables unit with unions."

Meanwhile SS Great Britain sails serenely on looking for icebergs.

In other EV News - "ScottishPower to create 1,000 jobs from £5.4bn grid investment" - TBF these are "direct jobs" so once again the knock on effect of job creation to the supply chain is debatable - especially as there are a couple of hundred thousand displaced O&G workers who might be interested.

*Scottishpower the well known Spanish owned company also controls SP Energy Networks. They are one of the DNOs that Dale Vince was accusing of price gouging with a 40% profit last Friday.

Https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/700143

"wherever there is tension between the great powers, there is almost always an energy artery nearby that might explain the inflamation" -from Doomberg

“Italgas and SOCAR (State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic) signed a Cooperation Agreement today at COP29, renewing and strengthening the collaboration between the two industrial groups. The agreement, signed by Paolo Gallo, CEO of Italgas, and Elshad Nassirov, SOCAR Vice President responsible for gas, consolidates a strategic partnership aimed at promoting innovation, efficiency, and sustainability in the gas distribution sector."

This is why Georgia and Armenia interest the greater powers. Because of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute the gas pipeline joining Azerbaijan to Italy had to go through Georgia. The recent election of Georgia Dream to power brings more Russian control to the region. Far too complicated for Ed to understand. I suppose we could always invade Norway if Putin won't play fairly?

* pipeline route - Azerbaijan>Georgia>Turkey>Greece>Albania>Italy

From Eigen Values -

"In an illustration of how how obsolete these meetings are, Keir Starmer was the only major world leader to attend the Baku jamboree with the leaders of countries responsible for 70% of emissions staying away. The leaders of Brazil, China, EU, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan and the US all declined to attend. Javier Milei of Argentina even ordered his delegation to return home after three days.

The G20 underlined the futility of it all by failing to back a call to repeat last year’s COP28 pledge to transition away from fossil fuels. The BBC’s Climate Editor, Justin Rowlatt made us realise that the COP process is a gangrenous limb in desperate need of amputation when he called for us to “forget climate, COP is really about cash.” When even the Guardian is reporting that COP summits are no longer fit for purpose, you realise the gangrene has spread and COP has been dead a while, now a fetid corpse awaiting burial.

You have to wonder why the UK bothered to send 470 delegates to COP29. It is even more bizarre to see Prime Minister Starmer committing to an 81% emissions cut from 1990 levels by 2035 just as the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) project released new figures showing global emissions rising to a new record level in 2023. Starmer’s announcement followed the advice of the Climate Change Committee (CCC) who claimed their guidance was informed by “the latest science, technological developments and the UK’s national circumstances.”

With this backdrop, it is worth reminding ourselves about the trajectory of global emissions and energy use, the UK’s tiny contribution as well as the serious impact Net Zero policies are having on our economy."

I think that Starmer has made a mistake here. He left it to Ed and the decision was to not interfere. Governments are sovereign and can spin most situations. In this case they chose the Pontius Pilate route and washed their hands of responsibility. That is cowardly.

They had enough distractions in other areas and thought that reneging on their energy responsibilities could always be blamed on the courts if things went wrong. I would imagine that they are looking at things differently now. The merits of the need & access to our own O&G is becoming more obvious daily. The Doomsday predictions are plain 'nutty' and not happening whilst the promised lower energy bills are also absent.

The public are waking up. Just need the politicians to pay attention. Self-immolation is not a good look in politics. If Ed wants to do it best he leaves government and join Uplift or the CCC.

You may have seen Dale Vince on Newsnight yesterday evening -

from 11:30 https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0025858/newsnight-martin-lewis-energy-bill-advice

He came out with his usual crackpot ideas and this time he really has shown his ignorance. He wants to impose a cap on our North Sea gas prices because its price is driven by "global fossil fuel markets". What about Norway and US LNG? NS would just close earlier.

But the best bit was his attack on Distribution Network Operators where he wants a 1.5% profit margin imposed on them as they're currently making 40% profit. It'll be interesting if this idea gets any traction. Ed will love it. Let's go full North Korea.

He reckons he can save £700/800 a year on bills. He'll get the publicity he craves because he cannot be allowed to quote this "guff" on National TV without a panel having a competent person to challenge his claims.

Finally we're winning. The propaganda tide is going out.

* cartoon in DT - pensioner in police station showing document to police sergeant - policeman says

'That's not a non-crime hate incident sir, that's your energy bill'

Excellent find Therapist.

Https://dailysceptic.org/2024/11/21/wind-speeds-dropping-rainfall-similar-to-a-century-ago-the-climate-news-you-wont-hear-in-the-mainstream/

The only metric of value in regard to energy transition is the absolute minimum guarantee. In the case of solar PV and wind, the minimum electricity output you can guarantee is 0%. This is because sunlight doesn't always reach the ground due to cloud cover and Earth's rotation (i.e., day to night), and in the case of wind, it is not always blowing with enough velocity to spin the turbine blades.

As a result, fossil fuels cannot easily come offline.

This is confirmed by recent research.

Rather and Mahalik (2023) found that for every six units of renewables added to the grid, less than one unit of fossil fuel is displaced.

🔗https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10098-023-02689-8

Today's news had a small impact on the Bonds. They went up 50 points - 100.00 > 100.50

The Bond market is better than the equity at sniffing out problems. We've passed this smell test.

Many years ago a company I worked for was briefly owned by A. Gary Klesch who made most of his early money through junk bonds. I mention this because I remember him quoting - "a company that is not involved in several court cases is not doing its job properly". I'll be interested in our $ HYN's closing today.

Whatever way you look at it the new bond issue (RNS 25 Sep) involves events that are unfolding. It paid off the second lien loan which must have been an impediment of some description imo. It does help explain just how complicated the NS is becoming.

I do hope Putin understands and that Trump will step in with the oil & gas we once had.

Viaro also in the news in Energy Voice. Their boss Mazzagatti is accused of forging documents to steal from a previous employer. They have an interest in Bressay. I doubt this news and the update are coincidental. Just goes to show how many moving parts there are in any larger deal. The optimists among us would say this helps clear the way for our next step towards using up the tax credits.