Member Info for romaron

BBC 1 about the rush to Net Zero - Ross Clark will speak sense.

Unite said it had "no option" but to withdraw the invitations to the First Minister and the Scottish Labour leader to attend the event in Dundee this weekend.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/union-rips-up-invites-john-33760864

Unite Scottish secretary, said the union remained "shocked and angry" at how politicians had tried to "wash their hands clean of this industrial vandalism".

Respect. We don't really do In "Industrial" in the South but we do earn more.

Hi AOK - you're probably right but I do stuff away from here. I'm going to this on 7 October and expect to give simple explanations and ideas to others. I'm working through osmosis.

12:00 Rally outside Houses of Parliament. Meeting point is George V Statue, Abingdon St, London SW1P 3JY.

13:15 Go through security into Parliament and assemble in the Central Lobby.

14:00 Mass meeting inside Parliament – there will be limited spaces for this.

16:00 Finish.

Last night at the Enfield Climate Action Plan was a hoot. My plenary group was tasked with "How should we as Residents respond?" - it milled around for 5 minutes as nobody could remember the task. I unusually kept quiet because 'I knew'. I reluctantly pointed them in the right direction. This immediately upset the self-appointed leader of the group as I now knew more than him. One of the residents asked how do we get Enfield's attention? I inter with "You don't - its circular". I was only there because a FOI that I used to expose wasted spending suggested that I should perhaps get more involved and was directed there. Perhaps they hoped to convert me? Comparing them to the Tooting Popular Front didn't win me any friends either. They did actually admit at the bigger meeting that the £127k spent upgrading insulation and heating on 10 council houses wasn't cheap but "lessons were learned" - yes, in how to waste money. I didn't claim the glory although I was the one that broke the figures down. They know and must inwardly seethe - they don't want me there but banning me would upset their happy-clappy, self-confirming, virtue signalling scouts meeting.

I am working at the grass-roots level but do have access to further up the chain. They can be surprisingly ignorant of how people actually feel. Energy and bills are complicated but due to an eclectic career since 1999 I know more than most about boilers and energy certificates etc. It means I don't have to bluff.

Thanks for the speech writing compliment. I have to play to my strengths as I'm more Ray Winstone than Winston Churchill.

But a success story if your aims align with juststopoil, Uplift and the renewable sector. Orsted and Vattenfall cannot believe their luck whilst the Chinese put another shovel-full of coal in the furnace to produce energy to produce EV's and solar panels. India will supply the steel. Labour have bet even larger than we have. The worse that can happen to them is they lose the next election.

It feels like the O&G industry are the modern day heretics and their persecution is led by the head of the Inquisition, Ed Miliband. That was based on witchcraft and apostasy as well. We've replaced Indulgences with Carbon Credits and subsidies for the faithful.

Ed - "Imagine your heating runs on gin & tonic. It is a 50/50 mix. Gin is 90p and Tonic is 10p. So £1 a unit on your bills.

That is fairly close to the mix for gas which is 50/50 natural gas and imported LNG. On the same terms roughly 25p for NG and 75p for LNG.

We're going to improve your life by going over to 100% LNG."

Brenda - "But won't that be more expensive?"

Ed - "No - because you'll be protected by income support, pension credit or Universal credit. You'll also benefit by being healthier and protecting the future of your grandchildren."

Brenda - "But won't those who aren't eligible for help be poorer?"

Ed - "Only until 2030 because by then you won't need gas. All your energy will come as electricity which is up to 9X cheaper than fossil fuels."

Brenda - "It's all very confusing but you're in the Government so must know what you're talking about. 2030 you say? "

Ed - "You can trust us Brenda - it's all about clean energy at speed."

I don't think we're at the bottom. I think we've gone past it. The producers of the BOA analysis probably don't talk to their bond team who just arranged an oversubscribed bond tap. That isn't surprising. I know that Citibank FX traders hid their orders from their Sales team and they were in the same room. All sales wanted to know was what Brevan Howard were up to. Sales might grass you immediately by giving favoured clients a 'between you and me' tip. Same where I worked. When it didn't matter we were open and transparent but if it damaged or risked a trade we looked after number one. It is often easier to silo stuff anyway as it will only confuse customers. Traders like to know everything whilst the credit team will be more circumspect, dig deeper and take a longer view. The analysts will try and read the runes and anyway the model may throw up lines that are crossed and adjustments to make automatically. The thing is that a lot of this is catch-up and stuff may be coming to an end. If the trend changes then all actions are likely to be wrong.

It was only 12 days since the St. Leger and we still have the Budget to look forward to whilst the ME descends into chaos. I think energy security does matter and it won't be through renewables. I'm not even sure what next week will bring let alone post-budget. The movements at the moment are fairly predictable. Does Labour ignore the warnings and carry on down the road to self-harm? RR hasn't mentioned the investment allowance lately - the EPL 75%-78% looks baked in.

*Reg S 101.75 down from 102.125

144 A 101.75 down from 102.50

And the algorithms, liars and bad actors. Like many here I haven’t done well in EnQuest. That is because we massively failed by betting on economics and common sense against Government action and the cult of Climate Zealotry. Fossil fuels still remain the cheapest form of energy despite being taxed to near death and the religious fervour of “The Great Leap Forward” with its figurehead, Ed Miliband, seemingly bent on impoverishing the country and effectively de-industrialising it. No more engineers but plenty of Deliveroo drivers and call centre jobs.

I don’t blame EnQuest for our current valuation and prospects. Harbour are leaving the basin but they haven’t trebled in price either. I realised some time ago that this message board is useful for venting and filling in knowledge gaps but has no effect on the share price. Our biggest threat is the dogma of the eco-activists. “97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change”. That is AI talking which confirms that this belief has gone mainstream. But, it doesn’t stand up. It is 97% of publishing climate scientists and you’ll have some pointing out mild effects and the greater good brought by fossil fuels cheap energy against the nutters at the other end of the spectrum like Michael Mann (Hockey Stick) who conveniently wiped out the medieval warming period and evidence that warming raises the level of CO2 – not the other way round. Science is divided but any sane person realises that bath water and sewage isn’t drinkable but is inevitable. An impoverished coastal town 80 years ago now has £1m + holiday homes and No Parking everywhere. Building on a flood plain needs no explanation or living in the middle of a forest that has had wildfires since time immemorial and some trees need intense heat for seed germination.

I have had some success in getting stories to people who can get them published or aired, I have also joined Unite and will be at the 7 October rally. I cannot claim direct success but once you learn the language it is quite easy to defeat the arguments of cult members by asking them a specific. They seldom have any answer outside of a slogan. Tonight I am on a zoom arranged by the “Enfield Climate Action Forum”. I expect to get banned and have another FOI in questioning Enfield’s actions.

*Did you know that 22 Sep was World Car Free Day? I was accosted by 4 council employees asking how I got to the Civic Centre on Tuesday. The prize was a banana or apple. I asked the interviewer how she got there. She came from Australia – as does Tessa Khan. I don’t appreciate being preached to by foreigners.

India, Argentina, China are rolling the dice. Irrelevant what we do but virtue signalling gives you a warm inner glow (apparently). It is a form of levelling up. They'll get richer while the UK and Europe become poorer. I didn't vote to be part of an ideology or social experiment and eventually the public will cotton on. I especially liked the bit about forcing a factory to close because of high energy prices and suggest they move closer to renewables in (say) Scotland. Why - If you've found a country has far cheaper energy elsewhere and you've already packed your bags then why nor relocate there?

Tata are expanding in India - how many Welsh people are they employing?

"If you would know the value of money, go and try to borrow some.” – Benjamin Franklin

We know today's announcement is fungible and you might expect a slight drop when it is blended in. Today the Reg S went up an eighth (102.125) and the 144A stayed the same (102.50). That's a good sign.

On balance I'll follow the money and not the analyst. The budget is queering up everything. We might have to wait until around then for action.

Https://contrariancapitalist.substack.com/p/doomberg-you-cant-have-heavy-industry?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=email

Extremely good listen

This could be a win/win. Flexibility is all important and sometimes it is better to pay a few extra quid for the options it brings. Could it be a reverse move? Remove the second lien term loan and file it with the HYNs which currently are running smoothly and need little attention. This frees up the RBL completely which can then be utilised with pretty much immediate effect. The 2 October is next week,

I've struggled with this. Unconventional (fracking) fields decline fast whilst the conventional decline too. For arguments sake 15% and 8%. There is very little investment in oil and gas compared to its heyday. What if the declines are much faster than the reduction in world demand and NO investment in new fields?

It is just media filler and a working crystal ball has not been invented.

20 September 2024

Successful listing of bond issue

Waldorf Production UK plc (the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has successfully listed the bonds under its 13.00% Senior Secured USD 53,706,770 Bonds 2024/2025 ISIN NO0013280206 on Nordic ABM as of today.

For further information, please contact: Aaditya Chintalapati, Chief Financial Officer, Tel: +44 1224 202850

Thanks VoR - and I was getting quite excited. Overall its good I'd say. A reduction in interest and there appear to be pros and cons with RBL v HYNs anyway. Beginning to look like housekeeping. The market has reacted with a yawn.

I can't find the rate of the August 2023 loan. AB gets $9m back on the face of it as the Double A contribution. Might be immaterial but worth mentioning.

This new loan will be subsumed into the existing HYNs is my reading. The rate is very similar and with a small discount to the existing rate (101 from 102/102.5). I guess that they will be blended in and I don't really see much change. The Reg S did drop a 100 points on 23 Sept from 103 to 102 and is probably because of this.

There are several questions here. Was it internally accountancy driven? Does it facilitate the next move for EnQuest? A second lien is removed and does it improve our attractiveness or make deals easier to transact?

I imagine EnQuest will respond with bland corporate speak when asked.

I'd imagine that it will be seen as an improvement as the 'second lien' could be viewed as a kinda second mortgage and an additional charge on the asset. If Stevo is reading this he can probably assist. I wonder if another RNS is being put in the magazine and fired over the next few days. Interestingly I wonder if the original $150 mio was always temporary and just a bridging loan. It could be as prosaic as that. An accountancy tidy up?

Hi AOK it obviously refers to this :

"On 25 August 2023, EnQuest entered into a term loan facility of up to $150 million. The facility matures in July 2027 and will rank junior to the Group's existing $500 million reserve based lending facility (the 'RBL') as a secured second lien instrument within the capital structure."

Outside of my knowledge. It was always there in plain sight and obviously had a role to play. I think the complication is whether it is tidying up the balance sheet and the money raised is just the replacement of the existing loan and how much for 'corporate purposes'. I'm hopeful that it is just another chess move towards the 'transformational' deal we're hoping for. Afraid I'm not much help. Craig needs to add some colour.

The lenders would have been all over this with the proverbial comb. There was nothing there to frighten them. Kinda funny when you look at the share price.

I'd say they're raising money to form part of a deal. The pricing is encouraging. This isn't distress raising imo. The existing HYNs closed @ 102.50 144A and 102.00 Reg S.

"I am “the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer… in 800 years” she said, earning her an entirely unearned round of applause. The Tories have had three female PMs. You can’t boast about climbing Mount Snowdon when the opposition has already done Everest.

Did you know her parents were primary school teachers? That she went to a comprehensive school? The hall held its breath. For the rest of us, such things are quite normal; in the Labour imagination it’s akin to pulling yourself up from a rubbish tip in New Delhi."

Tim Stanley in fine form.