Member Info for romaron

Expect a string of RNS's over the next few days and weeks as deals can now be priced and closed. I expect us to be among them.

I'm happy because it is the first time I've seen either government back away from the precipice. I was also looking at Ed Miliband when it was announced. I don't think he was happy. There is enough in there for us to consider the development of Bressay whilst public perception hardens against renewables over the cost and what will be seen as lies told about them. I am personally seeing more people come around to my position. Heat pumps and EV's are too expensive and have may problems the public didn't anticipate. Word-of-mouth still works and it is only tree hugging vegans who defend it to the last.

I expect next year will see a further disenchantment towards renewables and it is even worse in other countries; particularly Germany. Labour want to announce good news and jobs. I expect that to override Ed Miliband's fragility as they announce the expected revenue and new jobs from NEW field investment. I think we have the potential of a multi-bagger with EnQuest. Reality has entered this space.

JOG have gone bonkers on Buchan. We have Bressay and then Bentley. The relentless attacks by the green blob had stalled and will now be pushed back. I've bought more EnQuest.

Rachel Reeves redirecting millions away from poorer voters so that Ed Miliband can build a giant dream catcher on the South Downs.

Source- Tim Stanley DT

Https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/index.php

If you hover over the dials you get some interesting information. I was right about the interconnector with France being nuclear but a couple of other things surprised me. Solar is not metered centrally and wind power has 30% unmetered.

Luckily we have a government in power (and the previous) who have their finger on the pulse and have this under total control and foolproof auditing. We can also rely on the integrity and honesty of the green blob. I am checking it out all the same.

Https://grid.iamkate.com/

Current reading :

10.2% renewables

57.9% fossil fuels (only gas presently)

19.8% other sources

9.6% interconnectors

I'd like to move biomass (Drax) to fossil fuels and move the French interconnector to Nuclear because it almost undoubtedly is. So my new generation split is:

renewables 10%

fossil fuels 66.2%

nuclear 17%

interconnectors 4.0% (which might be renewables so definitely expensive)

More accurate picture imo and removal of "other sources".

I feel better now.

I looked here and saw gas use was high today: https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

I looked here then - https://grid.iamkate.com/

Luckily I haven't got the heating on as it is also a mild day. Seems the interconnectors don't have a lot to spare either. I'm hoping January to March is as warm as the climate zealots tell me it will be. I do hope that BRICS only attack us on a sunny, windy day in the summer.

Typo - "something similar is happening to the gas bill." Should read "something similar is happening to the electricity bill."

Stevo is correct in what he’s posted and I imagine he has similar problems getting people to understand. Firstly we need to simplify using the NG Gas Flow chart (all in TWh) this is my (amateur) analysis for 2023.

Incoming is 877.6 (production our NG + Imports Norway NG and LNG) this drops to 702 by deducting export. I’m guessing that some is that we process LNG or easier to put through some Norwegian gas via shorter, existing pipelines. This in fact helps destroy Tessa Khan’s argument that we don’t use our own production and shows her complete misunderstanding of the economics, production and fungibility of O&G or more likely her prejudiced ideology. Norwegian citizens do very well out of O&G.

It then gets more interesting. The amount to power stations is low and becoming lower (205.7). This is because wind turbines and solar farms have been growing on a subsidy binge and clearly reduce the amount of gas needed for electricity. Wind is cheap (when available) but it is what it takes in capex and networks etc (all on your bills or through taxes) to reach your socket.

The remaining 470.7 goes to 237.1 for domestic heating. So you could say that out of Net gas input to the UK (702) that 29% goes to power stations and 34% goes to heating our homes. These are the 2 numbers that the public have best chance of understanding. The remaining 33% though important is hidden from the public but paid for by the public. It doesn’t add up to 100% but I’m trying to keep it simple.

Points to note here are that gas production and imports become blended. The important point to note is that using it for heating means that you will be burning some of the LNG (I know the same with power stations but you start complicating with subsidies and renewables). If we can clearly get this to the public they will be able to get their heads around a component that costs 3/4X the price and is a similar amount dirtier. The question is how much of our gas is LNG. Maybe the electricity component is not so complicated because if we can establish the cost to our gas bills it follows that something similar is happening to the gas bill. The LNG element may be complicated by the 175.6 exports but who cares? We said it first and can conveniently ignore – I doubt anybody would query it anyway.

So we have gas made artificially expensive by confiscatory taxation and a self-imposed decision to stop O&G production in favour of LNG. This link gives a 2023 breakdown of gas input https://www.sunsave.energy/blog/uk-gas-sources

NS gas is declining so a rough estimate imo would be 25% NS – I’ll leave Norway at 40% and LNG 35%. The future? Not a clue but I expect Norwegian gas to be in high demand so I guess our imports will be 50/50 NG/LNG with the LNG likely to become more dominant.

I don’t want dirtier more expensive energy. Labour does.

*monkey or should we call you Pilgrim - put down your bible and check my unaudited calculations.

The budget that is. They are after bigger fish and the O&G industry has been landed and gutted, “overfished” I think is the term. Any further pillaging and the trawlers will soon be gone forever. I was going to make the subject of this post “Gas for Dummies” and I’ll explain. I attended the fuel allowance rally and met my MP in the HoC. I also got closer to Unite the union so imagine my surprise when instead of adopting common sense the 9X video

https://x.com/NetZeroWatch/status/1830995939496206552

elicited the response of questioning where’s my evidence that renewables are not cheaper and again accusing shareholders of pocketing much of our energy bills. Both ludicrous and no attempt by them to prove the efficacy of the 9X cheaper statement. They did mention though that most of our energy is not generated by renewables. We are on shakier ground here. We need to have answers because these are numbers, not a faith or belief.

I struggled with this because it is a half-truth and one that you could expect a politician to use. Bills are complicated, especially electricity so a better argument may be through gas which is baked into EPL and ESIM and a potential problem for Labour (unbaking a cake).

There are other costs that make up your bills: operating, environmental, TPI, metering and network but I’m talking here of wholesale and for us it is the gas element that concerns us. I asked experts for help and they provided these links: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/natural-gas-chapter-4-digest-of-united-kingdom-energy-statistics-dukes

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

For the DUKES link the first document provides on P.7 a Natural Gas Flow chart 2023 (TWH). It is a mine of information in one place. The second link is self-explanatory. I’ll come back later and using again the same ‘cod-science’ analogy of what I think is the truth that needs to be broken down into simpler terms and examples that the man-in-the-street can understand. I don’t have all the answers.

*pay attention at the back. That includes you monkey!

Stevo - I was posting about Block 2A not DEWA. But thanks for the numbers for DEWA.

Could be transformational if we're involved in the farm-down. Could be one for Stevo (see P.15 of Seascape presentation today)

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SEA/seascape-energy-asia-plc/company-page

Some of you might find this interesting:

https://x.com/aDissentient/status/1840690466477535685/photo/1

or this regarding the Green Job bonanza:

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/09/30/green-jobs-bonanza-2/

One or two exposed walls? Floor? It probably has a heated corridor and being a "B" I guess is fairly new. It means you're sampling the joys of block living so you understand procrastination and persuasion of other inmates (joke). I cannot see heat pumps ever being retrofitted.

"You're joking. Not another one." (Scandal that is)

https://unherd.com/2024/09/the-miliband-files/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyxm8cjMSCo

I'll keep a record. Spin is it a house or flat? It helps if you indicate. "B" is really gold medal level. I once got an "A" and it was a new build flat surrounded by other flats so pinching heat from sides, floor and ceiling with only one outside wall. I asked the Council guy in Enfield how many "A"s he'd come across and he said "two". They are as rare as hen's teeth.

The houses up my road that have had EPC's do not show any as having heat pumps. You can be nosey and check why a neighbour has a better/worse rating than you by clicking on their EPC. Frac, they obviously like where they live and haven't moved or rented them out.

Go here https://find-energy-certificate.service.gov.uk/find-a-certificate/type-of-property

Click domestic property and put in your post code. You might not be on it but your neighbours will. In 17 years people move.

I think you’ll be surprised with the results. In my own road out of 7 properties registered (out of 13) 4 are D and 3 are C. Those that are C had major extensions 2011, 2018, 2021 (£100k plus) which makes sense but I don’t think any have an ASHP. I’m investigating the improvement ratings if you install one.

Now I may be wrong and you all come back telling me that you are all “C”s. If your house hasn’t had an EPC you can choose a neighbour who has a similar property and condition as yours.

This isn’t anecdotal. This is closer to polling and is acceptable. I hope for a response.

This is important. I need some assistance. Some of you will think (like my wife) that I spend too much time here but by attacking the idiocy of Ed Miliband and his policies it improves (and proves) the future and importance of O&G in the UK. This request is specific. You all live somewhere and even if you haven't budged for 17 years a neighbour would have and that requires an EPC as do rental properties. Maybe your kids have moved or rent? Landlords are facing enormous bills to get properties to an EPC "C" rating by 2030. You can see where this is going. It will be a requirement for those selling a house to achieve this rating eventually. My house was built to a high specification in 1994 and is a "D". The most important impact is solid walls against cavity. Insulation is a prerequisite otherwise you are heating a tent. I have the documentation and the FOIs for 10 Council semis in Enfield that were retrofitted to a high standard (£127k each) which included ASHPs and experimental ventilation. It did create some FTE roles (Full Time Employees or maybe "Green Jobs"). The aim was to move them from EPC D, E and F to C.

https://www.enfield.gov.uk/news-and-events/2024/05/fresh-funding-to-upgrade-and-improve-enfield-council-homes#:~:text=Enfield%20Council%20has%20already%20successfully,Retrofit%20Accelerator%20and%20contractor%20Osborne.

You cannot sit passively by whilst our politicians take away our own choices and impoverish each of us and the country. The next post will explain where you can help. I don't know but expect many of you in your complacency don't realise that you have even bigger bills heading your way. All for the cult of Net Zero. If your property isn't already "C" rated start saving.

In the scheme of things 'Sunday Morning Live' is run on a shoestring and certainly doesn't have the viewers or impact of Kuenssberg. It was a filler because I know that SML is filmed in London whatever google says. They might broadcast from Salford but I'd bet decent money this was filmed in ITV studios London (cheaper). Ross Clark lives in Cambridgeshire and this collection of guests was relatively lightweight. Ross Clark though was the expert and his book Not Zero is worth a read.

Forgetting that and trying hard not to be partisan but climate activists would turn up to the opening of an envelope. Gathering views and exposure is how they get publicity and donations. You will always get them at short notice and it is usually the same suspects plus Dale Vince, Tessa Khan, Jim Dale ad nauseam. The industry would be on a hiding to nothing so is usually "unavailable" and politicians wouldn't deem it worth the effort either.

They must meet but where?

The format would work with a neutral chair. Broad sweep statements from the activists seldom stand up to specific enquiries or questions. I'm afraid it is all about politics, lobbying and vested interests.

The two things working in our favour are the economics and impossible and Trade Union support. How much longer can the promises keep coming without a reduction in energy bills?

Having said that I'd say some good came from the debate and the climate activists resorted to slogans and vague reference to science that actually isn't; just models and selective data.

The shame is not enough will have seen it. I'm sticking with the Unions and the public asking why UK energy bills are the most expensive in Europe (even with an O&G industry).

Surely Starmer must be concerned with some in his cabinet. Maybe Keir has been naughtier than we thought and Ed has the negatives.

I'll summarise - the programme was "Sunday Morning Live" which does concentrate on Faith and Ethics so no surprise that we had Melanie Nazereth from Christian Climate Action (they didn't mention her Extinction Rebellion role) who managed to plug last Sunday's quote by the Archbishop of Canterbury saying "God is Green". Doctor Kush Naker from Just Stop Oil (who mentioned his God too; David Attenborough) . Ross Clark journalist and broadcaster and Inaya Folarin Iman also a journalist and broadcaster.

I'd say that overall it was a fair debate but do criticise the shutting down of Ross Clark when in response to the claim by Nazareth that "flooding is on the rise" challenged her on where the data came from -as IPCC disagreed. I would have liked to have heard the answer. Anecdote isn't science.

In some ways this programme was the right setting as the anti-fossil groups work on the fundamentalism of a belief.

*Inaya Folarin Iman was very good and is only 27 - I hadn't really come across her before.