Member Info for romaron

I tied myself in knots but I have to admit that it looks like Ed was right. What he said on LBC looks pretty convincing now. I realise it isn't the whole story but when he said "wholesale prices 60% higher" regarding gas he was probably right. I'm so used to his dissembling and half-truths that I jumped too quickly to the conclusion that he was manipulating again. He was, but not so much on this point. Of course energy bills going higher isn't his fault it is those petrostates, dictators and geopolitical upheaval. So with those factors he carried on with the mistakes made by the Tories (tax revenue is so tempting) which speeded up the decline and stopped investment in the NS O&G. We now don't have a plan 'B' for the intermittency costs which are racking up at an alarming speed and the reduced production in the NS means the revenue hasn't really increased when higher price cycles are met. I was as surprised as Ed to find out that winter can be cold and weather unpredictable. I think the benefit I've got from this exercise is that my gas bill has been pretty stable and I'd argue that the gas price doesn't have as big an effect on electricity prices. It shares it with the carbon taxes and renewable subsidies etc. they all add up. The big political drama will be if we have blackouts which are getting closer and may be unavoidable.

141.45 https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ICEEUR-GWM1!/

It's that dictator in Norway I reckon. Never mind - we have the renewables on standby. I've worked it out now. Following Ed's victory over intermittency we're halving the emergency services. Why keep fire stations staffed all the time. There aren't emergencies or fires every day. Brilliant - surprised nobody had thought of that before. Think of the money we'll save and all the spare stations for emergency housing.

Https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/the-coming-capacity-crunch

We are heading for a crash unless someone takes the wheel away from Ed. In fact, it may be too late!

Correction: I wrote (air is free as we are constantly reminded)

Wind is free - I live in London where Sir Sadiq has made sure that air is not free.

I think I've solved the differing gas costs and understand a little more about the increase which is unlikely to be 60% (my post 11:02 yesterday). It is still fiendishly complicated and though I'm confident I am right it needs an expert to comment.

I guess Ed Miliband knows the difference but has successfully conflated the cheap gas we have at present and through half-truths used it as the reason for energy bills not coming down. He cleverly placed the blame on fossil fuels for energy prices not coming down. A "not my fault guv" ploy which may land.

I had a mental block because the natural gas direct to our houses only really needs a compressor station whilst the gas for electricity needs to go through a CCGT and is effectively turned into another form of energy . The expense is turning gas to electricity so the contest is more the much fewer CCGT and single cycle power stations stations (29?) against around 11,500 wind turbines. So the comparison is really gas + CCGT versus wind turbines ((air is free as we are constantly reminded). Natural gas to our homes and businesses stays the same more or less and only compressor costs are added. It isn't the gas that is the problem presently more the rising costs of renewable subsidies (AR7?) and the intermittency which plays havoc with the economics of CCGT delivery and pricing. The CCGTs on certain days are little more than standby generators.

If you reduced (or removed) renewable subsidies and removed the penal windfall tax on fossil fuels there would only be one winner and it ain't wind.

We are chipping away at Ed's pack of cards but he has been underestimated for far too long. Please watch the video I mentioned yesterday and pass it on. A shame the quality isn't perfect but the content destroys many of the false claims made about renewables. The slides are fine - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEbERzYtnD0 - the venue was full and sold out. Next time I think there'll be improvements.

If you want glossy professional here is an example: https://www.ted.com/talks/tessa_khan_how_can_we_escape_soaring_energy_bills_stop_using_fossil_fuels

Problem is that it is pure propaganda full of misinformation but it did get 1.288 m views. This is what we're up against. There is still a long way to go but we're going forward and they're retreating.

*Look at the David Turver video from 18:30 - gas prices would need to rise 5 fold (he used 120p a therm which is high) and stay there for 25 years for break even on a cash basis using NESO projections for CP 2030 to be reached. The numbers are truly staggering.

Ed may have been telling the truth - listen from 26:20 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEbERzYtnD0

The wholesale price per therm eventually comes out of our sockets as MwH.

The video is of the meeting I attended. It is full of information by an expert. I think his technical knowledge and understanding of numbers will impress Londoner7 and Stevo.

What I am confused by though is the low gas prices I'm paying Octopus. They haven't fluctuated by anywhere near the same amount. I think Ed has been disingenuous here. Using the low prices of spring 2023 against the high prices of winter 2023. He is using 9 months and stretching it into a year. I'm not completely useless at maths but this is at PhD level.

As I said earlier I am taking this to people who have the skills to dissect it. My sense is that Ed manipulates and takes the lowest to the highest and not averages. We know that renewables have got more expensive just from the CfD auctions. That would obviously not be in Ed's interest to mention.

This is some of what I found:

ChatGTP - In 2024, the average wholesale price of gas in the UK varied throughout the year, influenced by market dynamics and geopolitical factors. In November 2024, the average gas price in Great Britain was 111.56 British pence per therm.

For the manufacturing industry, the average price paid for gas in the third quarter of 2024 decreased by 22% to 3.7 pence per kWh compared to the same period in 2023.

It's important to note that wholesale gas prices can fluctuate due to various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and seasonal variations. Therefore, the average prices mentioned above represent specific points in time and may not reflect the entire year's pricing trends.

This suggests that Ed may have a point and the graph is similar to the natural gas chart.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1174560/average-monthly-gas-prices-uk/

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

BUT

for those like me in the shallow end I went back to my Octopus energy bills. I ignored electricity and just tracked my gas bills. What most of us have forgotten (well, I did) what a short time ago was the energy bill crisis. The cost of gas shot up in 2022 and was coming down in 2023 but the HUGE bills which the government subsidised were all in 2023 (March to June) so there is a lag and means that there is a mismatch and you cannot TRUTHFULLY make comparisons without making the allowances. 2024 is easier to compare.

So I went to an authoritative source. Ed got over the impression to those listening that any bill increase was due to fossil fuels which really only means GAS.

So I went to my Octopus energy bills for 2024. The cost per KwH at 31/12/2023 6.46p and on 31/12/2024 5.87 (went to 5.96 on 01/01/25. Now gas isn't affected by renewables as far as I know so 6.46 to 5.87 is a FALL imo. In fact a reduction of 9%. This is as barmy as the 9X shibboleth. Can somebody please demolish my arguments.

O/T Greg Jackson just said that some Cities in China were cleaner pollution wise than some cities in the West. Kuennssberg never asked "which ones?". She did though correct that the BBC said BoE said growth was "putrid" that was actually how the Lib-Dems described it.

Accusations that BBC favour Hamas by the Israeli President were hard hitting. Kuennsberg said it was ONLY the BBC repeating what the UN says. All I can say is that the pictures of broken emaciated hostages surrounded by chubby Hamas fighters speak a thousand words. I don't know what happens to Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails but they don't come out looking like they've been kept in a concentration camp.

I’ve done some reflection on Ed Miliband’s Friday morning interviews and have come to the conclusion that he won on points. We don’t like to admit it but Ed is extremely experienced and capable when it comes to dissembling. Many of the links we read and use only reinforce our position; this message board is one of them. What we have to accept that there is another large group who do the same but with climate activism and left wing bias being their driver. e.g. The Guardian. The much larger group in the middle are the politician’s target. There are similarities with Ed and Trump who have NO compunction to lying if it helps their politics or ambition. Their diehard supporters and caucuses are happy to go along with the charade and “alternative facts” is not a myth. It means we keep plugging away but show respect – not for the man – but for his skills.

He was on LBC with Nick Ferrari first. NF is imo one of the best interviewers around but he certainly doesn’t understand wholesale electricity pricing. He demolished an unprepared NF when being attacked on bills shifted all blame onto fossil fuel prices and said “wholesale prices are 60% higher than a year ago”. This should have been interrogated.

https://www.tiktok.com/@lbc/video/7468649136909258017

He then shifted the end date to 2030 thereby creating wiggle room and his acolytes still have the promise of the ‘great rapture’. Masterful. Poor old NF didn’t have the knowledge (few do) to challenge him there and then. Even if we prove Ed lied and it is another 9X quote that will soon be forgotten and complaining about it makes you look a sore loser. He has wowed his supporters and fellow Labour MPs too. If he can face down Ferocious Nick then he must be telling the truth! Then there is the other angle that major politicians can pick and choose who they speak to. Go too far and you’re unlikely to get another chance so a certain amount of tugging of the forelock. I will investigate with far more capable people just how accurate the 60% is. Even if NF had the knowledge I daresay Ed would have said “it’s complicated and I’ll get back/write to you”. I would add that NF’s ignorance isn’t that rare and I think EnQuest executives don’t fully understand electricity pricing either from their silos.

Ed then moved on to Simon Jack at the BBC. He didn’t repeat the 60% [faint chance that it might be checked by an ex business journalist?] and skilfully evaded all the traps that SJ tried to spring on him and left unanswered the killer question “what is a resigning issue for you?” I think there isn’t one and Keir is too afraid to sack him.

When dealing with Ed Miliband you need to be cannier and fight dirty the way he does. Hopefully pressure is building and something drove him out of his foxhole on Friday. It was a rearguard action as I don’t remember any announcements or was he trying to get his retaliation in first for something bein

Will say a more incisive interview than the normal cuddle up. Possibly because Simon Jack is a business journalist and BBC business editor since 2016.

Ed probably thinks the interview went well in the same way that Prince Andrew did with Emily Maitlis.

Ed believes he's a Messiah - I think he's on the spectrum.

just listened. he's a stuck record. still ****ging petrostates and dictators. imagine how he irritates the rest of the cabinet. avoids all questions. wouldn't answer the question of what would make him resign. i know. nothing. he thinks he's relevant but is becoming increasingly isolated. promises, promises -and we know about them at enquest.

From the Waldorf RNS "The Company is targeting a completion date for the Restructuring as soon as possible, and no later than May 2025. The Company will continue working with all relevant key stakeholders with a view to completing the Restructuring as soon as possible."

So does that mean our "transformational deal" is being pushed into May 2025? Almost a year after it was mentioned.

Are AGM's worth attending?

This company has only lost shareholders money. Time to accept facts. They dumped on the Swedish shareholders - are we next? They take us for granted. I hope they haven't another rights issue coming up.

And then it sent me this message: "Electricity is expensive because we are building wind & solar. It is NOT because of gas - all gas importing countries pay the same international price, so this does not explain why our electricity prices are so uncompetitive" Actually I read it but my brain translated it. This is the ideal response for when eco-zealots say we're being held hostage by the price of gas. Why aren't other countries?

UK - leading the world in deindustrialisation

I used to think that the brain was the most wonderful organ in my body. Then I realized who was telling me this. -Emo Phillips, comedian, actor (b. 7 Feb 1956)

Excellent AoK. I'm impressed.

From David Turver today:

"Danish firm Orsted is the leading offshore wind developer in the UK and claims to be the leading offshore wind developer in the world. Yesterday’s announcement comes hot on the heels of Orsted’s CEO being replaced last month and the chairman, finance chief and operating officer being fired last year. Yesterday’s news was not specific about which projects will continue and which will be cancelled. It looks like Hornsea Project 3 that is already under construction will continue.

However, significant doubt has been placed over the 2.4GW Hornsea Project Four (H4) that won a Contract for Difference (CfD) at a 2024 price of £82/MWh in Allocation Round 6 (AR6) when the results were announced last September. According to H4 latest newsletter, the project has been granted planning permission and won a CfD but it has not yet passed the Final Investment Decision. It certainly looks like this project is on the chopping block to be cancelled.

It is all but certain that Orsted will not be participating in the forthcoming Allocation Round 7 (AR7) to win new subsidy contracts. Of course, this torpedoes Ed Miliband’s plan to almost quadruple offshore wind capacity by 2030. The loss of Hornsea Project Four and the lack of participation of Orsted in new auctions will leave a massive gap to be filled. If the world’s leading offshore wind developer is feeling the pinch, then we can be fairly sure that other developers will be facing significant challenges too.

This sudden announcement may explain why AR7 announcements appear to be behind schedule. The Administrative Strike Prices for AR6 were announced in November 2023, more than four months before the auction process began in March 2024 and some ten months before the results were announced. Yet, we do not yet know the strike prices for AR7, nor the date for the start of applications. We might expect Miliband to offer even more of our money to try and keep his plans on track and for strike prices to rise again.

It is certainly looking like Miliband’s insane plans for offshore wind to provide the bulk of our electricity generation by 2030 are holed below the waterline. Instead of the answer blowing in the wind, it’s an entirely different fluid emanating from a different orifice."

It's quite simple - https://www.bbc.co.uk/contact/complaints/make-a-complaint/#/Complaint%20Summary

I've also sent a FOI to Enfield over this mob - https://energetik.london/

I've asked for revenue received and number of customers. I believe it's making horrendous losses. They got sucked in by a grant. Grants and subsidies are the equivalent of gateway drugs when eco-fanaticism and politicians get involved.

AoK you wrote: "Why can we not find someone to recommend to the BBC as a pundit for common sense backed up with appropriate analysis?"

I think I've found him - https://x.com/7Kiwi

On top of his in depth knowledge he presents argument interestingly and with good presentation skills and humour. He is also combative. Look at his response to Ed Miliband's latest flailing attempts to distract https://x.com/Ed_Miliband/status/1887171553969705267

I had to listen to the programme that AoK mentioned (12:10). I could have remained in blissful ignorance and it incensed me so much I've complained to the BBC. This is what I sent.

"I accept the debate was between growth and green so I can accept the absence of anyone representing the oil and gas industry but unfortunately it reduces the debate to an advertisement and further propaganda for the renewables industry with no checks on the veracity of statements.

Dale Vince said towards the end (39:20) “I’ll be your numbers man tonight”* and proceeded to promote renewables with highly questionable assertions and then said this, “Rosebank itself is going to cost us £7billion in subsidies for a Norwegian company to build it and never pay any tax into our country”

This is completely untrue and there was no correction by the chairman or other contributors.

There are NO subsidies for the UK oil and gas industry. There are tax reliefs just as there are in renewable industries but O&G remains the highest taxed industry in the UK.

These taxes are; Petroleum Revenue Tax (PRT), Energy Profits Levy (EPL), Ring Fence Corporation Tax (RFCT) and the supplementary charge.

I can remember a time when the BBC was not such a left wing biased broadcaster. If I can access AI and information so easily (I’m not in the industry) then why can’t your researchers? I’ve seen better balanced 6th form debates.

Https://register.lowcarboncontracts.uk/?search=hydrogen

It might work if you're quick. Brilliant PMQT. Attack after attack by Badenoch on Starmer. Almost all about energy.

Badenoch used Eco-nutters and Eco-Zealots when referring to DESNZ and its glorious leader. Revolved around Rosebank and the best response Starmer could come up with is it takes Putin's boot off our throat. Totally ignoring the point that we already have what Putin has - oil and gas in abundance.

The odds against Bressay being developed have dropped enormously.

Just announced the first CfDs for Hydrogen Allocation round 1. https://register.lowcarboncontracts.uk/?search=hydrogen Totally unaffordable.

Meanwhile, a few months ago in the real world

https://www.skynews.com.au/business/energy/origin-energy-scraps-hunter-valley-hydrogen-hub-plans-in-brutal-blow-to-labors-renewables-future/news-story/f389f5209fe11cfe375c5340b9aca130

I like to think people here are more intelligent and better informed than the general public (putting aside our EnQuest investment) but the general public stand no chance of understanding the complexities of energy. If Brenda from Bristol doesn't get the gist then it is a failure for all.

A hungry man is not a free man - Adlai Stevenson

So much for energy security away from Petrostates and dictators. I think we should put Foodbanks and energy bills in the same sentence as often as we can.