Member Info for romaron

Please don't describe them as intellectuals. Some are; the majority are simpletons learning how to adapt to the real world.
Most are sincere but misguided. They are susceptible individuals who don't find religion exciting enough.

The guy from juststopoil on GMB this morning was shrill and animated making wild statements of their opinions as facts. Trump does it all the time so it is dangerous. They just keep repeating the hackneyed message full of half-truths and exaggeration. The biggest problem is that they have strong political support from the Left. Labour have challenged every step of the way the passage of the Public Order Bill which is in its final stage.
I don't think the industry does itself any favours with the timid rebuttals. BP and Shell have abandoned ship so we're really only left with companies the majority have never heard of. Hydrogen won't be the saviour for instance but we have to accept that global warming is guaranteed.

At risk of raising your blood pressure even higher: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c4iFUpXD7w

Try and keep up M - Profit stopped mattering in the UK around 2020. They became obscene and unnecessary. Might be different in Belgium. You'll be fine with your Jeremiah Johnson skills.
Meanwhile juststopoil is on Breakfast TV accusing the government of criminal acts of genocide. The public are checking holiday flights.

40 EU lawmakers are interfering in our politics and want Rosebank banned. They are all Green lefties. The letter is here:

https://michaelbloss.eu/de/presse/pressemitteilung/klima-zeitbombe-in-der-nordsee

I would be interested in their communications to China and India. At last a potential benefit from Brexit.

"Furthermore, renewable energy is currently multiple times cheaper than gas, and every new oil
field project impedes the fair transition to a more affordable, renewable energy system. With gas
prices projected to remain high for years to come, we encourage you to instead invest in energy
efficiency and lower-cost, homegrown renewable energy, which are the quickest and safest
means of strengthening energy security and lowering bills."

They've not used 9 X but prefer the vague term "multiple times cheaper". It also opens the route to "pick your own number". Meanwhile Russia sails menacingly amongst our wind farms.

Following the comment yesterday regarding the only comparable companies to us regarding tax credits being Ithaca and Equinor I did some simple comparisons. I tracked the prices of the following from 9 November 2022 the date of the Ithaca IPO. We know it's usually the equivalent of nailing jelly to a wall but the results are remarkably similar and 9 November was a date when the market and advisors were trying to ascertain the market value of Ithaca and arguably the rest of the O&G market with an emphasis on the NS. It'll do for me.

9 November 22 -19 April 2023 share performance
Ithaca - 36%
EnQuest -34%
Harbour -34%
Equinor -19%
Shell + 3%
BP +11%

I realise those good with statistics will say the figures are pretty meaningless but there is one undeniable fact that leapt out at me. The North Sea is a hostile environment. Both onshore and at sea.

Skilfully handled by Ian regarding approaches saying the company would always have shareholders interests uppermost. I'd say there has been more than the usual amount of window-shopping. They would know if companies or private equity have been sniffing but until they make an official approach they can't tell us anything. That's the real world; AB would have just said NO because it wasn't official.

I thought Ian and Craig were very good and I hope they do another.

I learned more from this than the results on the 5th. In QA it appears we haven't applied for anything of consequence in the 33rd license round. I asked it because there seems an inordinate delay and I suspect it is because take up has been companies of poor quality who treat them more as lottery tickets. It also confirms EnQuest's plans to stick with the knitting.
My SVT question wasn't answered fully so I've sent a chaser.
In the NS apart from us it is only Ithaca and Equinor with strategic tax losses. I immediately went to Ithaca and a rough trawl is $5bn of credits. I didn't bother with Equinor as there would be too much data. It does though help explain why Equinor even bothers with the UK NS and is the only reason to hang around.
The comment about their and Harbour's politeness when relinquishing Bressay shows there is some respect and understanding between the companies. A shame it doesn't extend to politicians.
Ithaca have announced dividends but their MC has suffered the same as ours and Harbour. It still looks like the prices are frozen until we see some government action.
Since their IPO on 9 Nov they are down 36% and we are down 34% which feeds into my theory that we are all (including Harbour) treading water.

*If it kicks off this weekend with juststopoil and Extinction Rebellion we might get some traction from the government. I informed my Labour MP and the Mayor of London in February of juststopoil plans to "slow march" and bring London to a standstill in April. Both answered saying that legal protest is a democratic right. Their sympathies are loud and clear. I hope the public (voters) are taking notice.

Back in 2018, the far-right influencer Steve Bannon shared his theory of American politics. “The Democrats don’t matter,” he told journalist Michael Lewis. “The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with ****.”

https://www.niemanlab.org/2023/04/r-i-p-fuego-2011-2023-you-were-a-good-bot/

*disappointed that we have no RNS today (so far) which suggests that we'll be underwhelmed by today's presentation. Looks like this weekend might get a bit spicy. The confidence of juststopoil, Extinction Rebellion and their masters must be sky high. Time to combat the sewage they spill to an ever increasingly credulous and supine media. They're beginning to make Trump extremists seem the sane ones. It's deplorable!

I think I've trumped you Therapist:
https://juststopoil.org/2023/04/15/just-stop-oil-supporters-slow-march-through-cambridge-and-reading-ahead-of-sustained-campaign-in-london-from-april-24/
Highlights: "“In the 1980s the Conservative government closed the coal mines, deeming them too expensive to run and plunging the masses into poverty." You can't have it both ways, Sunshine.
"Bill Yates, who also took part in the Reading slow march and is eighty years old" he's hardly a sprinter!
And this comparing us to Nazis.
"In moments of emergency, we must be brave, we must stand for good over evil, life over death, right over wrong. We cannot stand by and watch while our rights and freedoms and everything we love is being destroyed. It’s time to pick a side. Either you are actively supporting civil resistance, fighting for life, or you are complicit with genocide."
Finally - "Join us in civil resistance on a slow march around the streets of London from April 24th"

I wrote to the Mayor warning him of the Slow March plans of juststopoil on 16 February. I got a reply on 24 March. They were blasé about it.
"With regards to your concern around mobility around London, the Mayor believes in the right to protest, but has been clear that it must always be done peacefully, safely and within the law. The Mayor shares the passion of those who campaign to highlight the urgent need to tackle the climate crisis – this is an issue he cares deeply about, and it is evident from the extreme weather events London has experienced in recent years that much more needs to be done to tackle the climate emergency. However, dangerous and disruptive protests can risk turning public opinion against a vitally important cause. The Mayor asks anyone looking to protest to think carefully about their tactics, to co-operate fully with the police and to act peacefully, safely and lawfully."

We know who to blame if it goes drastically wrong. Forewarned should mean forearmed.

"While people are better off in a lot of ways, they’ve still had to make some sacrifices. They don’t fly abroad on holiday any more. They share essential resources like vacuum cleaners, DIY tools and camping kit. They rarely buy new, but find there’s still an abundance of choice in the clothes, books, electronics and furniture already in circulation."

Do their parents know they're out without supervision? So while Elon Musk is trying to get us to Mars the rest of us can't even go to Benidorm? juststopoil is heading for extinction; they'll soon implode. If one gets in my way I shall clump him. This manifesto appears to have been written by a mixed up 13 year old. It is embarrassing.

MO - I hope you stay around. It could get interesting. We're hoping for something special tomorrow. They can hardly underwhelm us with a repeat of the 5 April.

*I think the banner is made of bamboo pulp. Grown on tropical forest land that they cleared to grow bamboo. At least it stopped the palm oil planters getting it..

Answers:
1. (a) 1 in 20 got the right answer
2. (a) 1 in 5 got the right answer
3. (c) 1 in 4 got the right answer

3. wasn't in the survey but from The Times yesterday. https://www.gapminder.org/ignorance/studies/sdg2020/

They're Swedish actually. I know you like a quiz. They did an independent survey in 2020.

1. In 1990 58 per cent of the world's population lived in low-income countries. What is the proportion today?
a) 9 per cent b) 37 per cent c) 61 per cent

2. How many people in rich countries lived below the worldwide poverty line of about $2 a day?
a) 1 per cent b) 11 per cent c) 21 per cent

3. How much of the world's energy comes from coal, oil and gas?
a) 42 per cent b) 62 per cent c) 82 per cent

I'll post the answers later with their findings. It is a bit concerning as it was restricted to Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland. They discovered that Monkeys do better than people.

* and I always thought Pelle was smart but the survey indicates maybe not. It's not so much the investment in kindergartens it is adding the word "profit" that upsets activists and Labour so much. It is becoming the "n" word. The "p" word is already taken so we have a bit of a problem presently in the UK.

.... and this today: "UK natural gas futures were trading around 100 pence a therm, close to levels not seen since July 2021 and down almost 90% from last year's peak of 800 pence,

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

Hi Dumbly - this is all getting a bit too close to comfort for me. I could say more but I would break confidences. If I could interest my daughter I would have access to very senior people at the BBC (she is ex-BBC). From a journalistic perspective there is little to be gained if you're not in the financial space; she isn't.
However, I like this tack of yours. We are unaligned with "big oil" other than being retail investors and that does actually give us a freedom and hopefully some influence. I wouldn't want a connection to be found that would weaken our case. I have posted information to companies, lobbyists and legislators etc. but get little back. That is fair enough as for all they know I am a member of Uplift or an Internet nutter.
The case is pretty simple in my eyes. If you can import more cheaply from abroad then that is worth considering. If importing from abroad means losing revenue and skills from the UK and paying twice as much (LNG) for an essential then that is a path that leads to economic ruin. Then there is that small matter of Energy Security!

If you want more info romaron49 at gmail

33rd Offshore Licensing Round
The North Sea Transition Authority (“NSTA”) announced on 17th January 2023, that the 33rd Round had garnered 115 bids across 258 blocks or part-blocks, with bids having been received from 76 different companies.19 Jan 2023

....and this from NSTA "To encourage production as quickly as possible, the NSTA identified four priority cluster areas in the Southern North Sea, which have known hydrocarbons, are close to infrastructure and have the potential to be developed quickly - and will seek to license these ahead of others. Applicants were encouraged to bid for these areas so they can go into production as soon as possible."

Radio silence? No rush to release the results? My own stab in the dark is that the realistic bids from financially sound companies are a little thin.

WATCH: EnQuest shares documentary as North Sea’s Magnus turns 40. Energy Voice today.

I found the men (and woman) involved inspiring. A timely release of the video?

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/496741/enquest-documentary-north-seas-magnus-turns-40/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Daily%20Newsletter%202023-04-18&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter

Be correct mrc - "a clever tool". He won that exchange quite easily and got the attention he was after. I think he [Musk] choreographed the interview superbly. I think he did better than juststopoil at The Crucible last night. They got the attention alright.
A day or an evening out is now decided by these idiots and animal rights demonstrators. When does a fringe group with tiny numbers decide what you or I want to do or watch?

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/494506/shakeup-in-league-table-of-uk-north-sea-top-producers/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Daily%20Newsletter%202023-04-17&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter

Headline in EV "Shakeup in league table of UK North Sea top producers"

It is both oil and gas. Golden Eagle has dropped from 8 to 17.

I did a very quick google and the list of OIL producers is Clair, Buzzard, Glen Lyon, Catcher, Beryl, Kraken, Mariner.
I'd suggest not a very good picture if you're concerned about the transition or energy security.

Reminds me of clauses in signing new football players that "if they play for England there is extra to pay". You don't like paying it but it means the player has progressed and you don't normally do that in a losing side. You can also flog them on for a capital gain. Magnus can be a win/win but from memory (again sorry) isn't there a cap on how much we can eventually pay BP?

Hi Stevo - it was from memory and I didn't fancy trawling through the past announcements to check. It could have been another NED. He is also on the board of OGL Geothermal where Rani Koya is CEO. It may have been a baton change.

We need something to break this logjam of news. AB said to me at the last AGM that running the company into the ground "is not how it works" yet that is exactly what seems to be happening. Not long now to the presentation and perhaps the change of directors is a teaser of big changes? One lives in hope.