Member Info for romaron

They follow the numbers as do Moody's. Not one of them predicted Covid, Ukraine etc... Like when you meet your accountant. He works from past figures and predictions based on things continuing as they are. That includes EPL.
The ramifications are for politicians to fight over. The Jefferies reduction is a statement of fact. Not unexpected. Promises and optimism have little forward value in their world.

Air Source Heat pumps. I've been trying to find out the size rads I'd need in my house (gas CH, solid floors, built 1994) and another (built c.1920, gas CH, solid walls) if I chose ASH. I am struggling to get this information without getting a salesman around. I believe this sort of information is deliberately hidden or kept vague. It isn't rocket science. Any assistance will be gratefully appreciated. I have known about ASH pumps since c.2010 and the physics won't have changed.
The public are being fed propaganda and ignoring the cost of electricity, the sheer expense of converting to ASH pumps is horrendous. Mainly due to the need of oversize rads which entails redecoration on top of the expense of changing the rads. The cost of solid wall insulation also requires redecoration and adjustment to electric points inside, gutters outside etc. Even then, when after ticking all the boxes some regret their decision. Can you trust the future price of electricity? They say the air is FREE but that isn't the case if you live in London and drive in the wrong place or have the wrong type of transport (think thin edge and wedges). For new-builds it is a different story if ASH is designed in. However, the take-up will be tiny as we just aren't building enough new properties so the housing stock standard will be little changed imo by 2050 with only new builds being compliant.
This isn't the reason for the post though. Much to my surprise my daughter knows what an EPC is and I see a storm coming. People will look at several properties and it won't always be a seller's market. The EPC kinda tells the truth (I've done hundreds) but it is quite a blunt instrument and many are wrongly surveyed anyway. I would ask to look at utility bills with special attention to the heating costs. The seller will always brag about the benefits but the utility bills don't lie. They will also tell friends and colleagues if they have buyers remorse and the product hasn't lived up to its promises. Even poorly finished new-builds might be included. It can't happen soon enough for us but the government and more so the Labour opposition are living in a fool's paradise.
I'm sure most of you have had builders and plumbers round. Are you confident they understand and can fit the latest technology at prices we've gotten used to? I'm not!

Thinking about it. The fact that BJ said it proves the idiocy of the statement. Not a problem if they want to use the 9X against Labour and climate activists imo. It actually reinforces our argument.

It's up there with drinking bleach to stop Covid. Alchemy and money-trees still have believers it seems.

Good find Dumbly - is there any section of the economy not damaged by Johnson's expediency and attention seeking?

Give it time and clever PR will link BJ's outrageous claims with Starmer's. Not that great an obstacle to overcome. BJ is thought of like Trump in many ways and his quotes are not taken seriously. For Starmer to use it in defence would make him look as superficial as BJ.

I had a long chat with another investor who doesn't post here. We knock ideas about and maybe one day we'll get it right. His latest suggestion is that we are getting closer towards Waldorf who farmed into Kraken. He is particularly intrigued by this: https://www.waldorf-production.com/news/
What is the $150m for?
I have no problem with the 12% rate because I'm more impressed that they raised the funds at all and it was "significantly oversubscribed". It also indicates they have access to funds in an area starved of traditional financing. There are bargains out there and Neo's deal with JOG is an example. It still has risk and imo the JOG shareholders were ignoring the fact that EPL has all but cratered the access to funds and even impacted the RBL route with existing debt. Neo know that there wasn't a queue interested in JOG and priced accordingly. "Beggars can't be choosers". That doesn't apply to us.
It did though start me thinking. Why am I admiring the opportunities and flexibility of Waldorf and Neo when we are invested in a company that is shortly to become practically debt free from a leverage perspective, has decent production and a proven management team? EnQuest is in an enviable position if you think that Waldorf and Neo have the right strategy. The tax losses aren't an impediment either and I think the CFO outlined that last Wednesday. CCS and SVT are also flavour of the month.
The smart money involved in M&A won't have missed this.

Thanks for the input guys. It is a long walk from the initial article to Keir Starmer repeating the lies in January 2023 in Davos and in his New Year speech. It was even repeated on BBC QT on 23 March , less than 3 weeks ago, which indicates a level of acceptance of the "9 X mantra" into activist and Labour (un)thinking. I'm considering attending the Weekly Sceptic live event in May. The problem with the article is that it is long and technical. I'll admit to not understanding parts of it. I wonder if there are events where the data, impact and costs are sensibly discussed? If everyone keeps plugging away we may get a breakthrough.

*Dumbly - I wrote to CarbonBrief att. Dr. Simon Evans last month. I don't expect a reply. I changed the letter but I'm unable to copy it on here as it has personal details. He purports to be a scientist but is happy to be silent when the facts are distorted, exaggerated and misrepresented. He should know better but zealotry doesn't really allow for guardrails.

"coal development has been falling across the world (with the notable exceptions of China and India)," that's all right then. It is after all only 35 per cent of the world's population living in those two countries. Meanwhile over here the British public (less than 1 per cent of the world's population) will carry the burden and responsibility of renewals and the blame for climate change.

At this time of religious reflection I have witnessed a miracle. Stigmata have appeared on my bank statement and portfolio valuation as red stains.

*can't renewables help carry the cross instead of smugly blaming it on us fossil heathens?

Hi Tim, re 11:34. Nothing clever. I got their via government links and google. It didn't occur to me to take the easier way through the EnQuest site but I had a nice stroll taking the long way round. I'm just putting my thoughts out there because I tend to look forwards and leave the torturing of historical figures to the likes of Stevo. I think he's an auditor or in compliance. He seldom has anything optimistic or good to say about EnQuest.

I also believe in serendipity and slices of luck. You'll never get a straight answer but SVT could have been forced upon us and it may well turn out to be a golden nugget (example Ineos and refineries when all they really were after was the chemical business from BP). AB has Petrofac experience and training. He is certainly capable of thinking out of the box. If CCS does come down in price and grow who better to be involved than a company experienced in abandonment and drilling with access to SVT and pipelines.
The serendipity revolves around of all thing imo; Brexit! Surely there must be something good to come out of it and it may well be that ourselves and Norway will be in control of fossil fuels during the transition (they call it "transition" but it could last 80 years or more). Because both ourselves and Norway are not in the EU they cannot dictate to us and we are actually important to all of the EU. we are though both in NATO. They can always blame us for intransigence or opportunism etc. but it is what it is.
On my stroll I came across this. There is a Memorandum of Understanding between Norway and Britain on cooperation in the field of carbon capture and storage. Signed 28 November 2018.
At the time it might have been a sop to the greens etc.. but it predates Russia/Ukraine and means there are connections and co-operations that will exist even if there is a change of government. The Labour party are just as bellicose as the Tories. Not at the top but their base are. I come from a chav background and although I never had a white van I did work at Fords, Dagenham for 6 months. I think Labour are alienating their core voters.

I'll be listening to the 19 April repeat and I hope it has some good promotional content and you never know, some new news.

Thanks Tim. I'm guessing that a pipeline is necessary and there's some nice pictures. I came from a different direction but they at least tie-up. Time for others who're better at this stuff than me to comment.

*technology without energy is a sculpture.

They're true to their word. If Labour get in there'll be a huge requirement for S*hit Monitors -

today's email

"The next Labour government will prevent sewage dumping by:

Having mandatory monitoring of all sewage outlets
Introducing automatic fines for discharges
Holding water bosses that routinely and systematically break the rules accountable
Let’s send the Tories a message this May to stop treating British waters as an open sewer.

Ronald, donate to our campaign fund today.

Thank you,

Team Labour"

Enquest May 2022 applied for two carbon capture and storage “CCS” license area both accessible from our existing infrastructure. Both were accepted and two applications made which closed on September 13 2022 with results expected to be announced in Q1 2023. There were 26 applications covering all or part of all 13 areas offered.
AB never mentioned which two but did allude to them on Wednesday. I think he might tell us which two on the 19th.
The government had said the results were expected in Q1 2023 and AB said by Q2. I imagine we're close. I tried to find which two as he said they were close to existing infrastructure. I found this:
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/1st-offshore-carbon-dioxide-storage-licensing-round-appropriate-assessment#:~:text=The%201st%20Carbon%20Storage%20Licensing,have%20been%20subject%20to%20AA.
Open the file and go to page 6. CNS Area 1 is close but not on target. Kittiwake is close but you really need a Therapist or mrc to understand better. However, higher up NNS Area 1/2 it is bulls eye for Magnus. Whether you agree or not with CCS we are combatting a religion with facts and tenets of faith interchangeable. If we get a license it will boost our price. It may even be possible that our tax losses might be used here (miracles do happen, apparently).

*Labour without energy is a corpse.

The 'Full Year Results' scheduled for 19 April with Investor Meet Company is (imo) not a repeat of last Wednesday but aimed at what AB called 'new investors' and even external investors. If you play with the site you'll find a lot of new companies or less well known with a definite lean towards renewables. My heart sank a bit when I came across a company that I'd once invested in that is now a zombie on there but picked up when I started coming across less well known companies worth a £billion plus. It will be interesting to see what story AB has to tell in 11 days time. We can guess at some. CCS (more in next post) will be central and of course SVT. I wonder about the timing and it would help sell us if we knew about the two CCS licenses we have applied for. An outside chance that we'll know by then but the government won't really be back until Monday the 17th.

*Serica were on it.

Deal: NEO Energy takes over Buchan field from Jersey Oil and Gas - Energy Voice.

I have to go out. This has massive implications for us. Discuss.

AB did say something about making the company attractive to new shareholders. Perhaps that includes retail? I do think there is something to be said for a new Retail Bond. With inflation due to drop I think one could go well. The landscape is changing and if they can make EnQuest attractive to retail investors then that will help the share price. I think we can say that the majority of funds have abandoned the North Sea O&G industry. We have become more important by default.

Stevo is reacting like any Accountant and with EPL a major obstacle for progress and the future of the NS O&G industry it is understandable. They are not investing and this isn't posturing; it is a fact. Capex no longer has a major role in the NS so he is probably right to lamp it all on to Opex/Abex. It is a gloomy view but that is how Accountants look at things. The companies also join in with throwing the kitchen sink in to signal their frustration and lack of trust in government.

Labour's priority is to get elected and they think that the "climate crisis and the obscene profits of big oil" will appeal to voters. They have avoided pricing their strategy to a large extent. I think they're wrong and it is NOT a vote winner. It could cost them the election. They'll drop it like a hot potato if their focus groups agree.

Climate activism is the NEW religion. For certain people they need an ideology or a "cause" to follow. It is also a profitable line of business with benefits running from "green" subsidies to political advancement. What does anybody really expect António Guterres secretary of the UN to say? (I hear the Pope continues to believe in heaven and celibacy).

I think certain cards are on the table and we await events. Even boring stuff to the English like the fortunes of the SNP in Scotland will have an impact. Who can predict the outcome in Ukraine? All I know is that we cannot keep our standard of living without fossil energy. The public like feeling virtuous but baulk at paying for it.

We shall see. I don't see why the rest of us should wear a hair shirt to help Red Ed, Gullible Greta or Jeremy Hunt with his sums.

Hi AOK - AB is a practising Muslim and it is Ramadan. The CFO is a Muslim too. Probably the equivalent of us going for a Dry January. It can be a struggle.

The UK fleet has been increased by a third land based carrier better known as Sullom Voe Terminal. Today it was announced that it has the potential to supply up to 10 Gigawatts of electricity further increasing the energy security of the UK. Put in perspective that is around 16 per cent of current UK peak demand.
We operate the terminal and own (I think) 15.10 per cent. Its importance to us does get diluted and 10GW is after all only potential but it is a brownfield site and likely to get planning permission sooner/more easily for any new developments. I'm only guessing here but I think we could power Bressay & Bentley from shore which would be significantly cheaper than floating offshore wind.
Another point is that even if what I just wrote is BS it will get lapped up because it has renewable energy involved. It makes us even more attractive. It reminds me in some ways of when Ineos were forced to take on 2 oil refineries as part of a chemical deal with BP. It made several partners billionaires. It is probably serendipity rather than long-term planning as we were really after Magnus.
Another item I liked was when AB mentioned we were seeking external partners to develop B & B. I immediately thought of Gareth Penny and his contacts and he added that the FID's on both were advanced and we have plenty of time (whatever that meant).
Jan - I don't see AB heading for the rocking-chair any time soon. Too much to do and we are extremely well placed though probably a bit too small, hence the need for 'external partners'.

Encouraging that reserves held up well "Net 2P reserves at the end of 2022 were c.190 MMboe (2021: reported c.194 MMboe)."

When we were struggling the declines went into the high teens. We're marching on the spot at the moment.

Under 'Other Upstream assets':
"At Bressay, EnQuest is actively exploring farm-down opportunities while continuing to progress development planning of the asset. EnQuest aims to utilise its expertise in heavy oil developments to access hydrocarbons at Bressay and Bentley, with each field having more than 100 Mmboe of 2C resources."

Pretty bland but why did Energy Voice have this piece today with the headline "Windfall Tax: Equinor and Harbour Energy exit Bressay oilfield in UK " It is OLD news.
Might just be little news around and clumsy. Maybe the webinar later will help explain.

The spokesperson for The Melon Party (Green on the outside, Red on the inside) was one of the first to comment on yet another oil giant celebrating poisoning the planet.

"Once again the Global Giant EnQuest makes a mockery of Net Zero and its aims. Another year of obscene profits. It is time to stop *****footing around and put some real targets in. The vagueness of 2050 is not scientifically based and was plucked out of thin air. We need to be more specific and the Melon Party with scientific advice have determined that Net Zero is to be legislated for 3.15 p.m. on Wednesday the 29 March 2045. We will continue to press for Net Zero because it equals Green Jobs. So far these jobs have been in China but this hides the real gains and explains why the Green Economy hasn't grown since 2013. What better way to clean up pollution and shift it to the third world where it is so desperately needed and can be turned into economic success. We shall enjoy the fruits of Marxism as we re-wild vast expanses of the British countryside in the gaps left between solar panels and wind turbines.
Be warned – the clock is ticking. Supporters of fossil fuel will complain that it will be impossibly expensive to achieve Net Zero by (see above) but why should capitalism come into the equation? With global warming expected to be 0.1 degree Celsius per decade the time for action is NOW.

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