Member Info for romaron

Hi Tigar - I am firing fairly indiscriminately but I will eventually hit a target. What I'm counting on is my fairly apolitical stance (I abhor Boris and Red Ed equally) and I have background experience of insulation and heating that gives me more authority than most but of course I bow to the experts. So far I haven't met one [expert] from Juststopoil or Insulate Britain. I accept that they know more about veganism and super glue than me. I would also be equally lost on the benefit system having never claimed for anything (I don't think a Freedom Pass counts).

There is a subtle change and yesterday's email may have a benefit if one of the councillors brings up at a meeting that one of their residents is concerned about the cost of renewables etc.

They can often pursue a course under the excuse that they're fighting for the silent majority or a resident - it does help especially as I'm not worried about anonymity. They do need ammunition and helpfully I can provide some. If enough of us write, comment or attend something we will help change the narrative. I am inching forward and have had some encouraging responses. Eventually something will crack. I have bought a ticket for Intelligence Squared on 12 July with the debate: Is Climate Activism Working?" Things will have changed by then so impossible to predict but they have said there will be 4 speakers. So far 3 have been named and are green/activists and the Chair hasn't been announced. I expect to be in a minority but intend to speak.

Politicians shy away from detail because they often don't know enough about a subject or don't press home because at the next debate they could be on the receiving end. Almost a mutual 'no-go' area. Then they might drop a ricket or give away a 'gotcha' quote so they stay closer to neutral. We don't have this restraint and neither do the activists. The difference is we don't protest about anything and everything from a position of ignorance.

I cut & pasted this. It dropped all the Capitals for some reason

hi alessandro, ruby,

i received an email today from enfield council proudly announcing the successful 'deep' retrofit of 10 homes in haselbury. i did some research and found out that it is part of a scheme whereby c.£1 million funding from beis was matched by funding from enfield council as part of the national net zero retrofit accelerator project. it includes properties in upper edmonton and edmonton green as well as haselbury.

from 12 may 2021 enfield council news: - "the project aims to make the circa 36 council homes super-efficient with thermal improvements and renewable energy generation, reducing carbon emissions and lowering residents’ energy bills. the whole-house retrofit approach is a more in-depth package of work than standard retrofit measures such as loft insulation or refitting of windows."

now whilst i accept this is admirable in one sense and i am quite jealous but i couldn't afford to do this myself. i did some quick sums and £2m divided by 36 is £55,000 pounds per home or is there still some funding left? if there is some funding left i am in urgent need of a new boiler and quite interested in getting on this gravy train.

i have been aware of costs involved as i am a plumber/surveyor and was a qualified green deal domestic adviser (2012).

i have paid towards this retrofit both as an income tax payer and a council tax payer so obviously feel entitled to a better explanation with costs per home being a much more useful measure than the "climate successes" that activists claim without a clear breakdown.

i live in your ****foster/hadley wood ward ................... etc.

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alessandro and ruby are my local councillors and this is an email i sent. it is a tory ward. the 36 homes in haselbury and edmonton green are labour wards. why am i not surprised?

*my new gas boiler is being fitted week starting 22 may. i have 2 hopes of getting a grant - bob hope and no hope.

Funny that the forward bids for oil by the SPR were ignored: https://prospect.org/environment/2023-05-11-energy-department-stabilize-oil-prices/

"Two of the four SPR sites are down for maintenance, and therefore the government could not store the oil it purchased. She has also pointed to the fact that the Energy Department is in the middle of congressionally mandated sales of oil, saying that the department cannot simultaneously sell and take in crude.

But in October, the DOE’s rules were updated to allow fixed-price forward purchases of oil. That means it can sign a contract today to lock in current prices, and receive the oil at a later date. This makes the storage issue a moot point.

Reached for comment, an Energy Department official echoed Granholm’s point about physical constraints, and referenced issues with a fixed-price forward purchase late last year."

“We did a fixed-price approach back in December, but we didn’t receive any suitable bids from sellers. So we’re not going to just take in oil if it doesn’t match the characteristics that are required,” the official said, declining to specify why the bids were not suitable.

There also may not be enough funding to buy back oil, because much of the proceeds from the initial sale was taken by Congress in a year-end spending bill.

*always easier on paper.

I suppose it had to happen. Move over Nimbys you've been replaced by Bananas {Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anybody]

I'm all for progress but this is affecting the mining industry especially. It takes roughly 23 years from discovery of a copper resource to a producing mine according to Michael Langford of consultants Airguide.

Without copper you don't grow EV's, wind turbines or grids. It is a bit of a problem as the people demanding an energy transition the loudest are the very same people working hardest to make it virtually impossible to produce the necessary metals.

*it'll solve the NHS crisis. Without ambulances the hospitals won't be so busy.

Energy Voice headline: Yousaf: No new North Sea oil and gas unless there is a ‘good reason’

"Results of the licensing round, coordinated by the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), are expected in the coming months, and will pave the way for companies to secure additional oil and gas sources.

On how that fits with the Scottish Government’s North Sea drilling stance, Mr Yousaf said: “These decisions are for the UK Government ultimately to make, but how I square that circle is by saying these are the factors that we need to look into."

Hi Pelle - I don't know. I remember £67 a month off my bill each month but I know it went up overall from around £200 a month to £400 but of course it was winter. In the real world prices move. A pint of beer in the UK is now probably close to what you pay in Sweden. There is a range naturally depending on the pub you drink in. If you get one for under a 'fiver' you are happy but £7 isn't unusual. I ordered a pint and a glass of wine close to where the AGM was in a plain boozer and it was close to £20. I didn't order a second.

In fact you now have the situation where the barperson will often warn you of the price before they pour, especially with wine.

*Monkey is probably whingeing that his pint of Federation bitter at the Perseverance Working Men's Club has "soared" through £3.

KO - at the time there was incredible pressure and I think it was a political decision as much as anything. Hunt spiked Labour's guns with a pre-emptive strike and installed the EPL. I am though still at a loss to understand the increase in the EPL from 25-35%, no floor and that it will remain in place until 2028. Maybe Hunt is a climate activist?

Where I would like your thoughts is regarding what ordinary people are feeling. You must meet a wide variety of people in the motor trade. Trade and customers. EV's have been taken up by the richest first and are to an extent a status symbol. I had to change my diesel and chose petrol. I do low annual mileage and the economics didn't stand up and a Timex is as good for me as a Rolex. What do you think?

Then there is heating. I have to replace my boiler (actually 2 boilers) the Megaflo which has sprung a leak and TRVs for 20 rads. The quote including VAT is just short of £10k and I think that is reasonable. I looked into an ASHP and like the EV it didn't make sense to me. I know electricity isn't 9 X cheaper than gas.

What I'm trying to say is that the people who count aren't the purple coloured hair people with rings in their noses but ordinary people trying to earn a crust. Activists are basically all hammers looking for a nail. If it wasn't climate it'd be something else, animal welfare or the like. I don't want to go vegan either.

Hi Pelle - not a complete answer but after PM QT yesterday Andrew Bowie Tory Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Minister for Nuclear and Networks) at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero in a post PM QT discussion stated that the 75% tax on O&G companies profit and went towards paying half of everybody's energy bill over the past winter.

He also said that Labour had already spent the money on abolishing non-dom status 3 X over.

He also repeated that it is better to produce our own O&G that has lower CO2 emissions than imports. It will be with us for the next 20-30 years [O&G] and better to keep jobs in the UK.

The Labour MP retorted that BP and other oil companies had said the WFT would make no difference to investment decisions here in the UK. Andrew Bowie replied that Bernard Looney said this before they introduced WFT and they are not saying that now. He added that "we are seeing companies NOT investing in the North Sea as a result of some of the decisions we regrettably had to take". I find that encouraging.

In reply to Caroline Lucas of the Green Party with a predictable question regarding banning Rosebank and not handing £4bn to Equinor. He replied that we will need fossil fuels for decades yet (ref: the CCC) and it makes no sense to import with twice the emissions. He finished with "it is an economically illiterate policy but that's what you'd expect from the Green Party".

This raises an important point for me. Recently Fergus Ewing in the Scottish Parliament said emissions of imports were 4 X the emissions of Rosebank.

For the public and most these differences are of little interest and even if Ewing was attacked for exaggeration it still pales into insignificance against the renewables 9X cheaper than fossil fuels tenet of the climate activists.

It may even be that Rishi Sunak exaggerated.

This seems more accurate: LNG imported from the US would be responsible for 636 kg carbon dioxide equivalent for every MWh generated. Of this, 38 kg came from liquefaction, 28 kg ocean transport4 kg from regasification.

Source: www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/09/f66/2019%20NETL%20LCA-GHG%20Report.pdf

It is all posturing and the owner of facts and accurate data will eventually defeat the hyperbole. In the final analysis the fight won't be about emissions imo. It will be about COST. Better we keep the tax revenue and enhance our energy security. Labour are only talking about what they'd do NOW. These aren't manifesto pledges; that is when they'll have to enter the real world.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hwd0JQjOi8I

Listen at 31:30 and 43:30

I wrote to Dominic Lawson in November about 9 X. I'm not saying we had anything to do with it but spreading the word is important. The whole video is interesting and the book is amazing. The negative (for me) is that clever as he is Ross Clark isn't a household name and comes over a bit nerdish. He is scrupulous on facts and data whereas the climate zealots are not. The whole climate movement could herald in another Poll Tax type rebellion imo as the results of an unthought out headlong rush to Net Zero will affect the poorest in society most. It will get worse and you can't get blood out of a stone a.k.a. the NS O&G industry.

The second bit is about Storm Arwen that the snowflakes in Scotland suffered in 2021. Of course it was blamed on the "climate crisis". It turns out that it was nowhere need the extreme weather of previous times. A lazy point scoring exercise indulged in during an exchange in parliament between Ed Miliband (who else) and Kwasi Kwarteng.

For you scientists; the maximum gust was 98 mph at low level, Brizlee, and 117 mph in the Cairngorms.

Historically we 102 mph Lynemouth1984 and 107 mph 1979 (low level). It didn't even get close to the high level gust of 173 mph in the Cairngorms 1986.

A cynic might say that it suited both MPs. One for the Ed Miliband crusade and the other for KK to explain away why 31,000 homes had no electricity for 4 nights.

Everything nowadays is a "climate crisis". When I was growing up we used to call it "weather".

Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero.

It's in the title. Aren't they mutually exclusive?

Good ideas AIM - along with others I am adjusting my thinking. The entrenched "climate emergency" lobby will never be persuaded. As the industry moves towards them they dig in and ask for more. A sizeable proportion of them are young and inexperienced. We've been there ourselves. At 23 years old I knew everything.

If the UK achieves Net Zero by 2050 what will it mean? It will mean we have moved the last of our industry overseas so they no longer count in the current methods of accounting for CO2 emissions. We will still rely heavily on and continue to use fossil fuels. Cement, steel and transport will still require fossil fuels. We'll have the smug satisfaction of the blessed whilst the East especially increase their standard of living as ours drops. The lobby forced a ban on fracking in the UK yet have no problem in importing dirtier and more expensive LNG from the US which naturally makes that country richer - whilst we become poorer.

This message board helps me collect my thoughts and I'm hoping it does lead to some positive action. I don't post on other boards so I cannot spread the message but hopefully there will be some traction. There is still time and perhaps this AGM is a milestone. However, I don't expect cooperation from EnQuest. The industry and OEUK need to explain why the passive resistance and avoidance of calling out the blatant misinformation spread by Labour, the Greens and activists is allowed to go unchecked. We also need a figure we can rally around. I'm surprised that the vacuum hasn't been filled. There seems to be plenty of money in promoting renewables. Maybe the retail investors and boards will become more than the equivalent of a four-ale bar.

This is the real world: https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1655248994421952517/photo/1 Do climate activists know more than the EIA?

*Juststopoil and the like want to start a revolution - they couldn't even start a lawnmower.

I used the heading "Great British Energy" before because that is Labour's plan - to set up a new strategy based on renewables. I don't think it really includes O&G judging by the statement of KS in Davos 'no new investment in North Sea oil and gas under Labour'.

Well JAPEX have taken them at their word; https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/500620/elp-impact-on-japexs-investment-in-norway/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter%20AB%20Test%20%5BA%5D%202023-05-08&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter%20%2810%25%20AB%20Test%29

JAPEX and Norway seem to see a future in the NS for O&G but what particularly worried me was this:

"The Welligence vice president said: “JAPEX had been considering entry into Norway and faced several hurdles including building expertise within a local office, developing commercial contacts and securing pre-qualification from the regulator.

“Longboat is pre-qualified and provides an experienced team with both geological know-how and commercial contacts."

That could be a description of EnQuest. Labour's intention is to burn down the library and lose all the knowledge that EnQuest and others in the industry possess. They are driving investment away from these shores. TBF the Tories are no better and arguably worse. The Boris legacy hangs over them and nobody is challenging the "Saudi Arabia of wind" promises. Practically all new sources of energy are in "development" stage and there is a faint chance that costs will one day get close to fossil prices. Based on implausible conjecture based on false evidence (fake news) repeated incessantly.

The true cost of wind and solar is hidden and cannot supply all our needs simply because the land and intermittency problems are too challenging.

If you were a foreign company would you invest in the UK?

From last September's Labour Conference:

"Labour led the way in January with the call for a windfall tax.

Labour led the way in August with the call for an energy price freeze.

Now Liz Truss said she won’t have a windfall tax because she says it is a “Labour idea”.

For the first time in recorded history, Liz Truss has got something exactly right.

The windfall tax is a Labour idea.

Standing up to the big vested interests, the rich and powerful, so we can help the people of Britain in their moment of need." Nothing new there or a bit later:

"And all of them have the same solution.

Low-cost, homegrown zero carbon power.

The price of solar and wind energy is nine times less than that of gas.

This is the defining truth of our age.

This is the undeniable truth of our age."

Author Ed Miliband. Source: https://labour.org.uk/press/ed-miliband-conference-speech/

I'm feeling a lot more confident about our future as Labour are building up a body of evidence that has no bearing in the real world and as usual is based on 'heroic' assumptions. It is in fact a litany of lies and exaggeration; a fairy story. The British public are suckers for this kind of thing to an extent and the acceptance of a Coronation and involvement of the Church of England shows how susceptible we are. It changes when the cost is down to the individual with something like energy bills. I would not have contributed to Charles' ritual but many enjoyed it. I contributed towards the police presence and the armies' fancy dress. In fact the way things are going the household cavalry are more carbon free than tanks and aircraft so all is not lost.

Labour's solutions require a 'money tree' and nothing has changed since their last time in power. In fact the same guy is in charge. Yes, Red Ed: www.housinglin.org.uk/_assets/Resources/Housing/OtherOrganisation/warm_homes_greener_homes.pdf

“plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose “

Thanks Frac. I have sent the complaint and written to the MP. It doesn't take long and there's nothing on the telly. I've also sent it to Harbour, OEUK and our IR. They may or may not be aware so it is more "belt and braces".

The speed with which they sent the windfall email suggests to me that Labour have a Dominic Cummings type approach and are copying some of the Trump style propaganda. Spreading a message is more important than actual facts.

Boris's £350m a week to the EU was wildly inaccurate but very beneficial to Brexit. Labour aren't worried about accuracy or truth.

Bit more Edonomic detail:
From google:
"UK oil and gas tax revenues rose from £300 million in 2020/21 to £2.6 billion in 2021/22. The OBR currently forecast tax receipts over the six-year period 2022/23 to 2027/28 will average £8.6 billion, up from an average of £0.8 billion over the six years to 2021/22.25 Apr 2023"
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From Labour:
Nice graphic of Rishi in a white sweatshirt with the Shell Logo and a misspelling underneath it of "Shill". The accompanying words are "UNDER THE TORIES, ENERGY GIANTS ARE TAKING £60 MILLION IN PROFITS EVERY DAY BUT RISHI SUNAK REFUSES TO IMPLEMENT A PROPER WINDFALL TAX TO HELP WORKING PEOPLE"

Labour are dropping below juststopoil standards and no bar is too low but here's the thing. £60mio a day is £21.9 billion.
It is actually misinformation and propaganda that would embarrass Trump or Putin. If the OBR figures are right and the tax is £8.6bn at 75% then even at 100% you only get to £11.47 bn. Am I going mad or am I missing something?

*I'd like to see Shell take some action against the picture and abuse of their Logo.

Schools in the West Bank at risk of demolitions
The situation in the West Bank is deeply concerning. Reports indicate that as many as 59 schools in the area are currently under threat of demolition orders. This is an alarming development that threatens to undermine the basic right to education for countless children in the region.

In Parliament this week, I asked the Foreign Secretary to join the British Consulate General Jerusalem and urge the Israeli government to reverse demolition orders that damage prospects of peace

Oil and Gas Windfall Tax

The energy industry is making massive profits, to the tune of £60 million every single day. Shockingly, despite these enormous figures Rishi Sunak has failed to implement a fair windfall tax that could help ease the financial burden on working people.

Labour would take a different approach. We would prioritise the needs of working people by implementing a windfall tax that would capture some of these excessive profits and redirect them towards policies that would help alleviate the financial strain on families. We would use this money to freeze council tax this year, providing much-needed relief to households across the country.
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I'm for the first and against the second. Labour are quick to attack Israel but I come from the direction that illegal occupation is morally wrong - I'm sure it has nothing to do with any lingering anti-semitism in the Labour Party. I shall try and get details from Bambos Charalambous regarding Labour's idea of a "fair" windfall tax. I'll also ask him that if they get elected at the General Election will they reverse the Public Order Bill (law now since 2 May) and allow "peaceful demonstrations " to recommence?

I was just tidying up and doing some housework and glanced over our bonds. Nothing much to record there. No pressure on the rump of the 7% RB due 15 October. The 11.625 $HYN still has almost 4.5 years to run and is steady with a YTM of 13.30% whilst the 9% RB of a similar duration has a YTM of 10.58%. It is also reassuring to see that there is no imminent repayment.
A different story at Tullow though. Their 7% $HYN due 1/03/2025 has a YTM of just over 40% and the longer dated 10.25 to 15/05/2026 has a YTM of almost 21%. I would be concerned.

I saw on another board that someone had suggested that EnQuest might have some problems at the end of the year regarding RBL demands. Well it isn't alarming the professionals from the money markets who normally know what they're talking about. We're ahead of schedule for the June payment and I don't think anything is due after that until early 2024. Does anybody have the RBL schedule or can point me in its direction?

Thanks M - unfortunately they have "Exploration" in their name and as far as I can see there is very little of that planned for the future. They are though more representative of our interests I believe. Maybe we should cancel our subscriptions to both as there doesn't seem to be much benefit. OEUK dropped the O&G from their previous title; OGUK.
I was impressed when the previous CE Deidre Michie spoke but it didn't really get us anywhere. Let's hope the replacement gets something done. There must be pressure on both organisations from their members. Perhaps they'll say that protest movements and appearances on popular media channels don't really reflect the facts but they're the ones reaching the public. And the public is certainly reaching the politicians.