Member Info for romaron

Https://twitter.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1666016169038323713/photo/1

It has to be a joke, right? You stop writing this stuff when you go to nursery school.

I wouldn't worry about it as it does help draw stuff out and you're too honest to be a troll. It looks like I got the wrong end of the stick regarding the Waldorf Presentation as well but we all feed information in to get other opinions in return. I'm a bit surprised that the news that Waldorf deal to buy Taqa and Dana assets was made impossible by WFT and decom uncertainties didn't get more traction. Perhaps it is still going ahead but using it to increase pressure on the politicians?

True story. Years ago the only news service I had at the bank I worked for was Reuters. I regularly got shafted by news coming from an outfit called 'Dow Jones Telerate'. It was like comparing the Daily Sport to the FT. They'd print almost anything whilst Reuters would go for the corroboration and official or trusted sources. Occasionally DJ Telerate were right and there was quite a bit of manipulation as it was more Dodge City in the late 70's. I was at a disadvantage because not having access to them left me in the dark. I'd rather have information that might or might not be true than none at all; especially if others had it first.

KO 8.38 - "Currently lenders cannot lend to producers until this is changed, I would imagine that goes for all energy companies not just oil and gas producers" - I don't think it is as black and white as that but close enough. It actually means that NO new development could go ahead as the 2P reserves have been decimated by the actions of the Tories and the threats of Labour making NO new field developments economic.

There you have it. Both parties are now presented with the situation they both created that unless there are fiscal changes and cast-iron promises made there will be NO North Sea oil and gas industry in 10 years. Labour claimed that the windfall tax was their idea. Isn't it a criminal act when two parties act with community of purpose.

It is quite amusing in some ways. The smoke from the burning tyres as both parties do a 180 degree handbrake turn will be something to enjoy. I'm with you on the 'loophole' Dumbly. At some stage Labour will have to get their willy wet and start giving some financial details. However, we've seen this [Tory] government make so many missteps and miss open goals that I'd rather Stuart Pearce took the penalty.

There will be some insurance cover but you cannot cover the lost "profit". We could be losing close to $1mio a day but most was going to the government anyway. I'm with you KO - this isn't the first time there's been a mechanical or electrical breakdown in the North Sea. I think it has got Bumi's full attention.

A late arrival to the debate: "Asked whether Labour would honour any licence granted for Rosebank, Sarwar said: "We would honour any licences that are granted and that demonstrates that we're not suggesting a cliff edge, we're recognising that oil and gas will play a role for decades to come. "

https://www.thenational.scot/news/23571142.labour-honour-rosebank-licence-granted-tories-says-sarwar/

Bressay/Bentley anyone?

Economic suicide with both parties complicit. Juststopoil have got more than they even asked for. I won't be ruled by the unelected. Is it a collapse or a capitulation. Do the parties congratulate one another or blame each other. You can do both nowadays. Dale Vince for Supreme leader. We must be the laughing stock of Europe.

Lest we forget this was the Environmental Audit Committee. It was an interrogation by a particularly adversarial Labour and Green representatives. I bet Tessa Khan couldn't believe her luck that a shaman could get on sucg an auspicious panel.

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/09e28c6c-4afa-48e8-aae2-d73485784719

I did try and get a response from the board yesterday. I queried just what constituted a 'new license'. I used Bentley as an example. It raised 135,000 barrels back in 2012 and called it a pre-production flow test. Right up to its demise they had one hard-working employee continuing to work on the environmental statement. To me that means it is live but maybe not at FDP but it is NOT a 'new license. AB replied and said that Bressay would be their first choice and that FID is really down to the regulator/government. It is the kind of question that you cannot answer and in some respects I was wasting people's time but we only really get one chance a year to publicly/personally address the company.

My question really revolved around what is a 'new' license. Maybe Starmer is a bit smarter than we give him credit for.

If Trump can declassify documents by 'thinking about it' it should be a piece of cake for Labour to give a new field a 'papal blessing' by playing with the semantics. I mean the public are basically unaware of the complexity of oil and gas fields whilst JSO, Uplift and the like have driven people away with their rhetoric and actions. They're also guilty of becoming ineffectually and boringly repetitive. I suspect high electricity prices (which you cannot blame on fossils) will also help our cause.

Imagine that. We could have one oven ready and another to go if somebody wanted it.

KO saw me scribbling and thinks I was taking notes. Nope, they were scribbles. Nothing of any real consequence comes from an AGM but there are some things that cannot be hidden. There were only 3 members of the board present - AB, Gareth Penny and Salman Malik. Carl Hughes and Howard Paver were sitting in the cheap seats along with us. Excuses were made for the women NED's not being there and as always there is something you wished you had asked. Were the women in the building and was there another board meeting following the AGM where the real stuff would be discussed?

Gareth Penny is combative and a welcome change from his predecessor. He was hurrying AB along. I didn't get the impression he enjoys AGMs.

There were Swedish investors there and they tend to be younger. A couple were concerned and a little confused by the none attendance of directors. It does hint at a state of flux in the hierarchy and sometimes this helps the creation of new structures. AB did say they are always talking and prepared to talk with other companies but this is a meaningless comment but at least it stopped a question from an old fogey (I asked it last year).

The board disappeared pretty quickly and the AGM was briskly hurried along (imo) by GP. They disappeared and we were left with Carl Hughes and Ian Wood. I may remember more stuff later and there must be some comments and observations from Sweden that can be brought onto this message board.

more about the agm later but something 'nagging'. just before the agm i had been alerted to this;

https://www.waldorf-production.com/news/ another investor had received an email about it on the saturday. "the investor presentation conference call will be held on microsoft teams on monday 5th june at 2pm (uk)." i am not usually a conspi****** but there is a huge 'coincidence' here. my memory is a bit stop start but this agm was delayed on (for me) a spurious reason from the original date. it also was moved to 2 p.m. which is later than usual [ko - i don't think it serious but the information we were given yesterday that last year's agm was 2 p.m was incorrect]

to save you googling here is some stuff i found regarding waldorf which in my mind is a kinda mini eig partners (behind harbour) with some very entrepreneurial backers.

https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2023/02/28/7989809/skyhoy-inntjening-for-hveem-and-co?zephr_sso_ott=nql1gs

https://www.finansavisen.no/nyheter/energi/2022/12/09/7968061/det-store-norske-oljekuppet

i did ask ab and he said he was unaware of the presentation. i also asked about it again during the agm. he added that he spoke 3 times to them at the weekend which was probably more to do with the fpso problem as waldorf has 29.5% of kraken.

this morning there is a story in ev that "taxes, decom uncertainties made waldorf deal 'impossible'. i realise it is a bit of a hotchpotch but it did cloud my thinking. is there anything in it or not?

Can you cannibalise another FPSO - for example EP? This'll test our recycling capabilities.

Reminds me of a deep-sea diver I met who worked offshore. I said it must be dangerous? He disagreed. He said there is so much daily money involved the last thing they want is an accident.

Obviously it'll be raised at the AGM but they can always say "investigations and solutions continuing".

Re the transformer - could be an issue. But there are always contingency plans. Expect more informed answers later today.

Good luck with the position Mito

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWSx0bBiNIs

This is the closest I've read:

https://www.artberman.com/2023/05/19/there-is-no-energy-transition-no-paradigm-shift-or-green-revolution/

They are populist in the same way that "world peace" and would you like a "pay rise or more holiday" are populist. I'd like cheaper and cleaner energy - I suppose I'm a populist too.

Sipp - I did read them. The detail and costs are always absent. All this talk of green jobs ain't happening. They are off-shored to China and elsewhere. Now we're out of Europe we live in a different Universe. France, Germany and Holland must have different 'energy'. It seems that renewables aren't living up to their promises over there.

Drip, drip:

Story 1. 'Starmer could pull plug on Green Ed's ambitions'. Starmer also under pressure for taking £1.5m from Dale Vince who also funds JSO and introduced as a donor under Ed's leadership. Re the promised £28bn a year green investment planned elements from within Labour and close to Starmer have already started using phrases that scuppered earlier plans, e.g. - "It was announced before Tories crashed the economy". Rachel Reeves is dubious too.

Story 2. Dominic Lawson pointing out the failings of the Net Zero ideology. In Germany the government is likely to back down in the face of public opposition to its proposed law forcing homeowners to switch their heating from oil and gas to heat pumps from next year. "The estimated cost is £15,000 to £40,000 depending on the size of the house. In poorer regions, such as East Germany ... house prices do not exceed £80,000." The Dutch Farmer-Citizen movement is becoming the most successful party formed as a protest against closing farms producing too much greenhouse gas from nitrogenous fertilizer and the rear ends of cows.

In the UK we are even dafter. Importing O&G instead of producing it but that is an accounting trick to make us look good in Net Zero terms. Emissions related to the UK NS go on the British Government's carbon account. But LNG shipments go on the carbon account of the exporting country. So, as the result of a statutory instrument passed in the dying days of the Theresa may administration we will be paying more and increasing worldwide emissions. He then went on to show how ludicrous it is to pretend that supplying Drax with 'biomass'. Not only is it flawed Drax has received more than £6bn in subsidies. More detail about incompetence and collusion with the CCC. He also explains why wood burning, per unit of energy produced, is much more CO2 generative even than coal.

Looks like its closer than I thought. From today's Times and an interview with Dale Vince the green millionaire who bankrolls juststopoil and the Labour Party. This from the interview:

His fellow multimillionaires prefer private jets. "I wouldn't ban them, but I would tax them very highly and put fuel duty on aviation." Vince will not fly until he finds a green solution. "Flying looks like the last frontier, something we have to give up, but the technology is coming. We are launching an electric airline soon and then maybe we can fly completely carbon-free planes."

*I suspect balsa wood and rubber bands will play a large part. They are close to creating a carbon free propulsion method apparently with a mixture of fairy dust and faith fuel.

Also in the Times was a leading article headed 'Just Stop It' referring to the activities of JSO with the first sentence saying "Exrtremism rarely bolsters a cause" and added that "their smugness is matched only by their naivety". It goes on "their rationale is that the more the public are infuriated, the more it will pay attention. This is foolish nonsense."

I think they're doing a grand job.

They haven't ever done a webcast to an AGM in my experience. If you want to attend you've left it a little late for a letter of representation.

They might have great people at Boeing but I bet they can't solve getting a battery-powered transatlantic jet into the air. A Boeing 777 has a maximum take off weight of 350 tonnes. Roughly 145 tonnes aircraft, 145 tonnes fuel, and 60 tonnes passengers, luggage and freight. Now let's replace the fuel with a battery capable of providing the same energy (they won't drive jet but propeller engines but leave that aside for now). The batteries will weigh around 9,700 tonnes so around 10,000 tonnes or the weight of the Eiffel Tower. Assuming it hasn't collapsed onto the runway and gets airborne there is another potential hazard.

Planes get lighter as they fly burning fuel but that doesn't happen with a battery. You can't really release a lithium battery in the way that you lighten a plane by dumping fuel in the case of a problem once airborne. It might hit somebody on the head. Assuming you can jettison the battery you now have NO power. Ah, but you say. We have a small back-up for just these scenarios called an engine that runs on fossil fuel.

Anyway, assuming you complete the flight how are you going to land the thing which by now has all the characteristics and manouverability of a meteor. A reinforced runway about 10 miles long sounds about right.

No doubt there are already investment opportunities and subsidies available to get in early for the next technological leap.

Absolutely Gordon - for sure something is happening. Shapps has his orders and Labour have fallen into the trap. They DID align themselves with JSO and it was a bad error. Events are moving in our favour. Today JSO blocked the coach taking the England team to Lord's by slow walking in front of it. It was on the news and the police didn't act immediately; they can't. Brilliant - the reason is that the Public Order Bill needs tweaking and secondary legislation takes a few weeks. It means that JSO will have another couple of weeks to further alienate the public and fix in people's mind their alliance with Labour (Dale Vince donor to JSO and Labour etc.). In Times today - EV car owners call to pay 6p-a-mile charge; Matthew Syed tells Djokovic and JSO that sport is where we go to escape politics. Macron breaks rank and calls for a 'pause' in EU environmental regulations. The good news just keeps coming. I'm not overly concerned about a recession. I doubt it'd impact the damage caused by the demonisation of O&G in the NS over the past years and there is an awful lot of under -capitalisation catch-up to do to arrest declines. Labour are missing open goals and proving they couldn't run a bath. I'm more interested in what Labour will do now. Will they double down or try and walk back or spin their way out of the corner?

I missed Dumbly's post on 29 May which gave this link: https://dailysceptic.org/2023/05/26/not-dark-yet-but-its-getting-there/

rather long but an excellent read by somebody who does know what he's talking about. I recommend reading it.

*gonna watch Question Time tonight. it'll be interesting to see if energy gets a mention. Some good guests. I like Jess Phillips and Jack Monroe. They'll make it more feisty.

Not really KO. SQZ got a lucky break with Rhum and ITH pay dividends. One thing I did take from it was that ITH only surfaced on 9 November 2022 with an issue price of 250p so are down 39%. On the same time scale we're down 47%.

I took the divi away from ITH and got 47% too.

What is more interesting to me is that ITH attracted almost zero retail interest judging from their message board. The whole industry (ignoring "oil giants") has been ostracised with retail investors following the funds since at least November. If the political wind changes and there is a rush for stock with NS assets then there will be a shortage unless you're there to provide liquidity?