Member Info for romaron

I signed up to Net Zero watch for updates by email. They are further right than I usually go but my perfect political party doesn't exist. They are close to my views on energy security though and their view that common sense and subsidies have been lefty out of the debate. I watched QT last night and wouldn't mind having Johnny Mercer as my MP. There are still principled politicians and I'm not after perfection.

There was also an ITV programme about Renewables that didn't add to my knowledge apart from one item. Redrow are the first builder to abandon gas and only install heat pumps on new builds. I'm not sure I'll find the information but I wonder if Redrow receive a subsidy towards this? The most interesting for me was that solar panels are optional on their new build - I don't think they receive subsidies any longer (happy to be corrected). The point to me is that adding the solar panels means an added expense that many are not prepared to pay. You can end up with cheap energy but there is a big capital expense to begin with. Another point was that most installers are not MCS approved but instead work under an umbrella scheme which has opened the door to some sub-standard installations.

I looked at an old EPC on my property (I used it for accreditation purposes in 2010) and it is a 1994 build that got a D. I cast my mind back and A's were as rare as chicken's teeth and I only scored a couple. They were almost always relatively new flats (few years old) that had gas CH and were in the middle surrounded by other flats, above , below and on either side. That means fewer exposed walls and you nick the heat from adjoining properties. Going for an AB rating is commendable but near impossible [incidentally 10 Downing Street is rated F]

On QT Dale Vince said that with renewables you get 2.5 X more jobs. That may be true but it doesn't mention the salaries. I'd imagine sweeping debris and leaves from solar panels in fields aren't highly paid. I can't answer his second point that you also get twice as much GDP growth with renewables - the comparison is always against fossil fuels and I can't really check this and (of course) nobody on the panel could either.

One point though is why worry about solar panels on your property when renewables are so much cheaper (anywhere between and 9X cheaper I'm told). I'm still waiting for an electricity bill lower than before the war in Ukraine.

Armada kraken can't be in two places at the same time. It was an option mentioned by AB to use EP on Bressay. It would mean Bressay is a goer.

I hadn't read the EV article when I posted and it was only a musing. However, the EV report has detail but could also simply be the author's musings - "NEO and Jersey haven’t yet named which FPSO they may go after, and local selection has narrowed in recent months.

In April, the Voyageur Spirit FPSO which was long-docked at Kishorn on Scotland’s west coast, left for the Middle East ahead of a job off Cote D’Ivoire.

The formerly-named Hummingbird Spirit FPSO has been booked up by Ping Petroleum for the Avalon field, and renamed “Excalibur”.

However the EnQuest Producer FPSO remains docked in the Cromarty Firth, not far from the Buchan site.

EnQuest said in 2021 there was “significant interest” in the vessel."

The EP is 40 years old but that shouldn't be held against it as 25% of the world's FPSO's are over 40 years old and that refers more to the hull whilst the topside is quite modern (my amateur sleuthing). I'm not getting too excited and would frankly prefer it to be used for Bressay but it will all depend on the politics and the decision to authorise fields in the future. That is then further qualified by availability of capital which looks increasingly likely to come from private equity rather than the banks and debt issuance.

It is a financial market that we have experience in and the tax credits give us added leverage. I'd imagine AB and team are very busy.

The Saudi and Russia move is reminding the US that this time around shale won't be riding to the rescue. The SPR is both a security and a political tool which I'm not qualified to comment on or even understand. There is so much manipulation and confusion. It does look though (to me) that the Saudi's have placed a big bet. Maybe they'll win, maybe they won't? One thing for sure, there isn't much capital around to finance the chronic underinvestment in oil over the past decade.

As far as bets go this is an outsider. From a JOG RNS today "In tandem with the specification of the preferred development solution, the GBA partners have agreed the key commercial terms for the proposed acquisition of an existing FPSO. The proposed acquisition is conditional on the negotiation and execution of relevant transaction agreements, including a sale and purchase agreement. The acquisition would form part of the carry arrangements agreed between NEO and JOG." - Could it be the EnQuest Producer? Personally I doubt it but you can see what capital starvation is doing to the industry.

This is where I got the £69k from:

https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/news/how-deep-retrofits-could-end-up-costing-you-a-huge-pound69000-more-than-double-the-figure-claimed-by-the-government

hi zippy, until i get the figures i can only go on *** packet calculations. the info i took from this: https://www.enfield.gov.uk/news-and-events/council-homes-to-go-green-with-1m-funding#:~:text=12%20may%202021%20council%20homes%20to%20go%20green%20with%20%c2%a31m%20funding&text=the%20council%20has%20successfully%20joined,upper%20edmonton%20and%20haselbury%20wards.

is what got me started. the figures are meaningless because you have no idea of individual work done or how much is left. presently it looks like £2m funding and they've retrofitted 36 properties. so up to £55k per property but simply guesswork at this stage. i remember doing the hydrogen houses in fife that came in around £100k a house. these are fantasy aims because the costs are huge and i'm not even accusing anybody of profiteering. it is easier to (slow) march than find funding but labour continue to pander to impossible dreams and promises. the tories are no better.

my aim is to get fresh figures and see if they can help me get them into the public space. locally might be better with the hope that on a quiet day the nationals might pick up on it. i've accepted that it will be attritional but it is an area where i have knowledge and experience. i'm sure there are others doing similar to me and i attend events where i may meet useful people. i'm going to this https://intelligencesquared.com/events/debate-is-climate-activism-working/ and will try and speak to tom harwood. i hope to have information that he might find useful. i think it may be a couple of months before we start to see traction but we'll do it from realistic, quantifiable data. like the oil industry we need to take a longer view. i do have contacts but won't use them until i have built up my munitions and reserves. it is only me and dumbly it seems taking it further and i've got more free time than him but i expect others to join in. i take my investments seriously and don't appreciate being mugged by ideology and climate zealotry. on an investment level we have been treated abominably and unfairly by the politicians of every hue.

Energy transition is going to take a lot longer, it's going to cost a lot more money and need new technologies that don't even exist today," said Hess Corporation's CEO.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/06/30/energy-transition-is-lagging-oil-demand-will-stay-industry-players.html

So there's a strong possibility they'll never exist or remain prohibitively expensive. But then many believe in Santa Claus until they leave nursery school.

*I received an answer to my FOI from Enfield Council about their Deep Retrofit Scheme part of the "Retrofit Accelerator Homes Innovation Partnership". They apologised for not having a 'finalised cost summary' but expect it at the end of July. Encouragingly they stated that the next stages will be at a lower cost because of increased numbers and lessons learned from earlier stages.

From simple googling estimates range from £38k to £114k with the average being £69k. I expect something similar. I am not happy paying twice towards this as a council tax and income tax payer. I am open to bribery if they want to come round and do my house up. I read that there has been improvement in EPC ratings and government led policies are behind this. I think it is more prosaic. New builds help but also renovations (knocking out single glazed rotten wooden windows) and boilers don't last forever (ignoring my mother-in-law's back boiler from the 70's) and are replaced by increasingly efficient condensing boilers. Loft insulation is a cheap no-brainer. Basically, it would have happened anyway.

Credit to the Rishi Sunak speech writer who came up with that quote. A 'splinter' group to JSO, it is in part funded by the same person and led by a 60 year old lawyer from North London who has a long history (which he now tries to deny) of associating with hard left figures.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12246357/Rishi-Sunak-brands-Labour-Just-Stop-Oil-splinter-group-PM-takes-aim-Keir-Starmers-plans.html

It got me thinking. You can't get much further left than Maduro in Venezuela (also 60 years old) and their economy is an indication of what can happen when you take ideology too far. US sanctions and chronic mismanagement have collapsed their [Venezuela's] oil industry yet it still remains one of its few sources of hard income.

Perhaps Labour should arrange a fact finding mission to Venezuela. I'm sure Ed Miliband has the necessary contacts. It seems to be a model they're interested in.

*I have to say that it glosses over the fact that the Tories have caused the most damage to the O&G industry of any UK government in history. Hypocrisy has become an accepted part of British politics. Facts and reality must eventually intervene? I hope so.

"The most crucial development in global oil markets is depletion in the Permian basin. We first warned about this in 2018, predicting the Permian would peak in 2025. In retrospect, our analysis was too conservative. We now believe the basin could peak within the next twelve months. The implications will be as profound as when United States oil production peaked in 1970, starting a chain of events ultimately sending prices up five-fold over ten years. IF WE ARE CORRECT, this could not come at a worse time for oil markets: inventories are tight, production in the rest of the world is declining, and investors are incredibly complacent" resulting in "once the Permian rolls over, the shale revolution will shift from growth to decline, and Hubbert’s Peak will reemerge with a vengeance."

Source "The Permian Basin Is Depleting Faster Than We Thought" 06/ 30/ 2023 Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates

It does read well to me but then I suffer from confirmation bias. Maybe our product will start attracting higher prices soon. Politicians faced with an uprising due to taking the oil away too soon will predictably do a U-turn. Hypocrisy and hyperbole is their mother tongue.

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/berkshire-hathaway-boosts-stake-occidental-petroleum-25-2023-06-29/

They weren't but hard to spot the difference. The only Green MP who between flights to the US attacks O&G at every opportunity had called a debate on Rosebank and Environmental Impact https://www.theyworkforyou.com/whall/?id=2023-06-28a.125.0&p=24910

It was predictable but between the repetitive diatribes it was a pathetic performance by the antis. The mad lady (who is not standing for re-election) was ably supported by other nutters including Richard Burgon a Corbynista who was booted out by Starmer.

This from the debate interested me; especially this: "I want to come to the position of His Majesty’s official Opposition. I am sad to see none of them here in a formal capacity, though I am delighted to see Back Benchers" . My reading is that Labour do not want to openly back Rosebank but their non-attendance speaks volumes.

Graham Stuart the Minister for Energy Security and Net Zero painfully explained reality to the crazy woman: "The reality is very different from the picture painted by the hon. Lady and those who intervened on her. This country, the most decarbonised major economy in the world, is more than 75% dependent on fossil fuels for its energy right now; that is the basis of this civilisation. Our aim is to accelerate the reduction in oil and gas use, but we recognise that they are essential to modern life, and will remain so for many years to come, including in the production of cement, steel, plastics, chemicals, medicines and fertilisers. We are a net importer of oil and gas, and a fast-declining producer, so I ask the hon. Lady not to use words such as “expansion”. By supporting new licences, we are moderating the savage decline in domestic production, and that is the right thing to do."

and later "It makes no sense, or only in the parallel universe occupied by the bizarre fringes of politics does it make sense for us to import—"

He even gave economic advice to the hon. Lady "It is demand that typically drives supply, rather than supply driving demand, although I recognise that there are movements in both directions."

My opinion of those opposing - fractious and irrelevant.

Conflict.

“With or without religion, good people can behave well and bad people can do evil; but for good people to do evil - that takes religion.” Not accusing Carl Hughes of evil but seems to me like he made a choice and it wasn't the promotion of fossil fuels. When it goes your way it's "god's will". If it doesn't suit the narrative then it's obscene profits. He clearly did f..all for us. Good riddance.

At the AGM Malik said there were various options regarding Autumn payments. He seemed pretty relaxed and it wouldn't surprise me if they issued another RB. In a month or two it could be that interest rates are turning downwards and EnQuest have had some encouragement from government (actual or shadow). There is imo a retail appetite for higher returns and EnQuest has always paid their debts. I think they stand a good chance of getting it away. It is one of the few vehicles that are easy to get aboard and quite flexible in my experience. Without looking it up you can trade from about £2k and upwards.

I can't help thinking this is important:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-oil-quota-reform-increases-gulfs-dominance-2023-06-27/

Gas seems more ubiquitous but oil is fundamental to many of the pillars of society. The politicians are quite happy for us to relate oil to combustion engines because we can get our head around that. We don't see cement everyday, underground plastic pipes and steel making. We ignore fertlizer when we purchase plastic covered food from supermarkets. Hospital equipment is heavy into plastic and even the paint on the walls rely heavily on oil and the transportability of oil is second to none etc...

I think our armed forces would have something to say about putting our oil supplies at risk. Plenty of new weapons in modern day wars but diesel still moves the heavy stuff around and there will never be an aircraft carrier big enough to launch a battery driven bomber from (or land on). Only short range drones run on electricity and batteries and ammo are heavy.

So unless something changes we will rely (as will the rest of Europe) on Norway, the Gulf and the USA. Russia is a failed state and it could be a decade before they again export to Europe (if ever).. The Gulf doesn't have the best record in human rights but JSO will hold their noses. The USA for all its posturing isn't a charity regards selling energy. Norway feeds from a declining basin.

Will common sense return after the summer holidays?

Only slight but these have a habit of disappearing and normal business resumed. To me it indicates a higher oil price in H2 and I think that is the info the government was given when they did the last EPL tinkering - that is assuming they still occasionally listen to professionals over political expediency which has become the main driver creating a barrier to new investment [not just in O&G]

"Meanwhile the UK is falling behind its peers in key metrics – ranking 21st out of 21 countries in terms of heat pump installations per capita, for example."

I will come back to this but our housing stock is old and leaky but that isn't one of the biggest factors against the poor take-up. Many people live in flats/apartments. I was involved in property management for a couple of years. I term it as my time dealing with "trivia and misery".

Trying to get agreement or consensus on anything to do with block management is never easy and the petty argument with trolls on here occasionally pale into comparison with block disputes. Neighbours from hell are on almost every block. I brought it up at meetings with government that the uptake of improvements stimulated by EPC's were not only ignoring the plight of people living in flats but completely abandoning the fate of flat owners to the lowest common denominator. A LEASE is often as solid and inflexible as any out of date regulation or law from centuries ago. Some are just silly and ignored (Wembley - no male visitors after a certain hour and no fencing practise) but 47 flats out of 48 with double glazing would still have to pay routine decoration for the flat hanging on to the wood framed, single glazed property. He would pay 1/48th of the cost. Also, where do you position the noisy heat pump? What about properties with old communal (or new) heating. It just goes on, is insoluble and only increases division. I don't have the answers but to pretend there are simple solutions is just as dopey and unrealistic.

CC also ignores human behaviour. The richest people want to live on the coast and then complain about rising water levels. They fly all over the world to complain about carbon emissions. Then you have the fact that in California the native Americans were banned from having light regular clearance fires that avoided the huge conflagrations that get the headlines now due to the build up of natural woodland debris. It was how they had tended the land for generations. I read that a 350 year old tree had suffered 36 fires without being destroyed. Fire isn't a modern invention.

Ooops - reading my emails and Energy Voice announce that Andy Samuel has joined Summit Energy Evolution. Coincidental timing. Summit sold its North Sea assets to Ithaca for $224 mio. A journalist should contact him for an interview before he goes on a slow walk.

Good find Kris although you could say Ithaca are talking their book. I have a bug about NSTA and wonder what others think or know about them. I looked up the previous incumbent, Andy Samuel, wondering where he had gone after 8 years. I thought a nice little earner with some NED's thrown in.

He is instead a self-employed 'Executive Coach and Consultant'. He is rewildng a farm in North Devon and with his degrees seems much more aligned with Juststopoil than the O&G industry. I wonder what the real story is there? I'm left thinking that the NTSA wasn't on our side under his tutelage.

"The unfortunate truth is that we still rely on oil and gas to keep the lights on, homes heated, and vehicles moving at this stage of the transition. " Why the use of the word 'unfortunate'? we're lucky to have our own oil & gas. From this largely political statement and fence-sitting.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/dr-andy-samuel-oil-gas-060000126.html

Thanks Kris - some interesting stuff in there. I would like them to name oilfields and also the criteria - will it include 2C and its subdivisions (Pending, hold, unclarified and of course not viable). The not viable could be changed at the stroke of a pen but many are there purely because of EPL and Labour threats.

This is political babble "The review into the future of offshore oil and gas licensing has concluded that a formal climate compatibility checkpoint building on current practice should be established. This will help ensure that any future licenses are only awarded on the basis that they are aligned with the government’s broad climate change ambitions, including the UK’s target of reaching net zero by 2050. A climate compatibility checkpoint will allow for an orderly transition, underpinned by ongoing production of oil and gas as long as we still require it domestically, while the sector increasingly bears down on its production emissions, and pivots to support the energy transition. The government has committed to designing the new checkpoint by the end of 2021"

So climate considerations take precedence and not what the country needs?

I'm also concerned that the NSTA seems to lack independence and is a mouthpiece for whatever political position is fashionable. Its main responsibility is purportedly to 'maximise economic recovery' (MER). Well it has failed. And that is without mentioning energy security.

*The chief executive of NSTA stepped down at the end of the year. Not usually a good sign. They replaced him from within - ditto, Stuart from HR.

Hi Dumbly - we've been discussing this for some time and I am actually awaiting an email response from IR. I realise most of our missives are wasted effort and ambitious but we only need one to get through. I think along the lines of when a politician says "I spoke to or got a letter from [pick a name] with concerns about ......." The same technique could easily be used by quoting us small retail investors and pension savers. There is also the point that we see and say many things they cannot and of course aren't afraid of upsetting anybody.

Labour imo appear to be getting themselves into a corner and it isn't a good look. The weekend ST had a big article about a JSO financier saying they should just STOP. They are losing support and damaging their aims. We had Rishi Sunak openly attack Labour's policy on Sunday morning which is also juststopoil with a rather hazy policy on the difference between a license and exploration. I'll ignore the hypocrisy and damage that the Tories have done with their ill thought out EPL for now.

If you go to slide 4 of this corporate presentation: https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/investors/presentations/ there is a list of the Top 10 UK Pre-Dev. Fields. Bressay is no. 6. I imagine the list came from another source and if anybody can identify that source I'd appreciate a more detailed list. I assume Bentley would be further down and although the list says 'gross mmboe' it is really about what is recoverable or 2P and the EPL has played havoc with that.