Member Info for romaron

"one can always tell when something popular has run its course when it becomes a parody of itself. sustainable investing has reached this point. it’s comic that fossil fuel companies are excluded from funds despite keeping us alive, whereas companies which could remove us from the face of the earth are included." - stuart kirk

an article about the folly of extreme views being ultimately self-defeating. juststopoil are a fringe group with "evidence" that is basically making a repeated mantra the argument. he was pointing out that ai poses a bigger threat and if you rid the world of ****-sapiens who would collect the dividend?

*you can read the full article on linkedin.

Talk about unintended consequences. They've overturned the ban on conventional car production in Europe but Michael Gove is flip-flopping under green pressure and sticking to the 2030 ban on sale of new combustion engine cars. He calls it an "immovable" deadline.

"Now that the European ban has been overturned, the government will come under growing pressure to follow suit if it wants to avoid a driver rebellion and destroying the British car industry for good." - NetZeroWatch today. I'm not so sure. Climate activism has become a religion where proof or evidence is not necessary to support your view.

"The Great Disappointment is viewed by some scholars as an example of the psychological phenomenon of cognitive dissonance. The theory was proposed by Leon Festinger to describe the formation of new beliefs and increased proselytizing in order to reduce the tension, or dissonance, that results from failed prophecies.

The announcement is fluff and conflation. We recently had a newspaper report here that Redrow would only install heart pumps in new developments. Closer inspection and it only covers DETACHED houses. This is tokenism and lazy headline grabbing. How many detached houses will be built? What about flats? It will make NO difference and will take decades before heat pumps could possibly become dominant as a percentage of space heating for dwellings; if ever!

Perhaps they've reduced the average cost below £100k per dwelling in Fife for hydrogen. They might change the building regs and that is SLOW but most people live in the present. The cost to make a property heat pump compliant is horrendous and wins NO votes. Trying through the back door by using EPC ratings is doomed to failure. People just aren't that simple although by their actions politicians believe they are.

I am awaiting a FOI on Enfield's Deep Retrofit Scheme that I sent on June 1 with heat pumps being a major component. They explained that figures/costs wouldn't be available until 18 July so any time now I hope. They did send me around the houses and now I am part of a Carbon Literacy Workshop working with this group https://www.climateinteractive.org/en-roads/

I managed to get on LBC with Andrew Castle at the weekend. He agrees with me on heat-pumps. They are not an economic replacement for gas boiler. The voters know this and belatedly so do Labour and the Tories. Gord knows what the SNP are up to. Probably preparing to be a green opposition party with crackpot ideas.

.... or maybe NOT. Go to www.luxse.com and type in Enquest.

The US$11.625% HYN. The RegS didn't move but the 144A did. By 4.75 points. I bought some anyway in case it isn't a misprint.

Www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2023/07/Montford-Heat-Pumps.pdf?mc_cid=ec569c3ff6&mc_eid=35cf3821be

Some of this is new to me. I was often thrown by the fact that Norway used them and they are popular in Sweden and even France. This is a report from the real world and Norway is easily explained by the abundance of abundant and cheap hydro power (not available in Holland and their mountain rescue team haven't been called out for 30 years). What is interesting is that 70% of homes in Norway with heat pumps also have a secondary source of heating, typically a wood burning stove. Norway also has little by way of domestic gas distribution networks.

The COP ratio sounds great in theory but seldom reaches the maximum and when costs are added and real life environments used (Myth 2). France with its cheap nuclear puts heat pumps within economic possibilities whilst I'm still confused about the success of heat pumps in Sweden. It has a mixture of reliable sources and one of the best outcomes for cheap electricity to feed into the heat pump. Meanwhile, a near neighbour of theirs,Germany with a large penetration of variable renewables on its grid has one of the worst heat pump gain ratios similar to the UK. The report adds that it is no wonder that Sweden has a lot more heat pumps than Germany.

The report https://valent-projects.com/publications/

"Specialists and researchers describe disinformation as purposefully wrong information that is produced and circulated with the intent of achieving some sort of political, financial, or criminal benefit. So, the key characteristic of disinformation is not that it’s “wrong” or “right”, it’s that someone put it out there knowing it was false."

The human race searches for a 'reason' and a greater plan behind our existence. People want dreams not reality. History is littered with cults and followers so why should the internet be any different? I could argue that climate change is a religion and has a better ring to it than 'weather'. Crops have always failed and temperatures swung about but now we are told that there will be a billion climate refugees by 2030 as things stand (JSO prophet Phoebe Plummer 12 July 2023).

Onedb will like the 'dead internet theory' with some saying there are more bots than actual people posting on the internet. There is an element of truth in this and nobody cares at JSO that renewables are not 9X cheaper because they've moved on. Their whole movement helps explain the 'useful idiots' definition. They're like religion - there is no settlement or proof so they believe they are unchallengeable. Just say peer reviewed by scientists because nobody looks it up. Only believe experts when it suits [bit worried in Barnet that my figs aren't ripening any earlier this year]. It is beyond argument that bots and directed message can push people into decisions that they believe they made by objective understanding and intelligence. The O&G industry has been on the receiving end of this for most of the last decade. Some people are more persuadable than others, especially young people. THe main beneficiaries behind this manipulation are politicians because all power eventually ends with them. The best at it are Putin and Trump whilst Boris only got where he did because of the internet.

I'm not religious and a realist. There isn't a snowball's chance of the demands from climate activists being met but they do have a momentum and like religion few politicians challenge their claims whilst at the same time ignoring them because economic suicide tends to upset the silent, moderate majority which we are told go along with fears over the climate 'emergency'. That is what Rupert Read (another prophet claimed). It is like children making claims by saying "I said it first". Just wait until old people die in a cold winter to see what they really value.

Read this report - it explains it better than I ever could.

There are no flowers without rain.

Elitesky 10:43 - I agree with you but the funds don't.

AOK - The timetables are already impossibly tight to achieve the early aims by 2030 and will fail.

*watching this from last night https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_1udpJYkD4

Thanks Stevo - that helps a lot. I think at the AGM AB said in reply to a breakeven price question that it was (from memory) $68. Perhaps somebody else can be more precise with the actual quote/statement.

I think another obstacle to the EnQuest share price is the large shareholding of AB. It makes us behave like an unpopular investment trust with the reduced liquidity it can bring. Add that to our low ranking as a small cap and no dividend. Against that is the fact that we are becoming a rarity as the North Sea production reduces and we become more important IF the politicians face the reality that the transition won't happen overnight. We are of a size that makes us interesting in many ways and the risks of abandoning the NS too soon are swinging in our favour.

Phoebe Plummer after deep research thinks 8 years will bring the shutters down on existing production in the North Sea.

i'll post again on this but presently doing a bit of investigation. there may be a video of the event at some stage. i am curious about certain things. it isn't sinister and regularly happens on videoed events but i was in row gg (cheap seats) and 5 minutes before the start in a sp****ly seated auditorium we were invited to move down to the front. in a room that could take a thousand there were about 250/300 in attendance. judging by the clapping and whooping whenever phoebe plummer spoke and made outrageous claims (always supposedly peer reviewed and from the scientific community that are actually meaningless guesses) she seemed to have her own group of followers. it makes me wonder just how many subsidised or complimentary tickets were provided? it also can be made to look like more attended. i'd suggest that they would have been disappointed with the turnout. i base this also on another event (forgotten now) organised by jso where i was due to attend was cancelled at the last moment and i posted on here that i thought the reason was lack of ticket sales.

the event probably ran at a loss. you have the staff to be paid and room hire. the guests would have been cheap. two book promoters, a young journalist making a name for himself and god only knows what phoebe plummer got out of it? i actually quite liked her and i'd say she is being cruelly manipulated. speaking as a father i was concerned when she said she had spent a month in prison and was awaiting further cases. she appeared fragile and i would worry about her mental health. she wears her heart on her sleeve and stated that she was 'queer', non-binary (whatever that means) is looking for love and that she is a 'they' kinda thing. she mentioned it - personally it makes no difference to me and a person's sexuality is their own business but some will call her names. she is clearly committed and honest but not that bright. she even said she wasn't clever enough to be a politician because she didn't have a degree. nonsense really but the crowd loved it. she is a kinda reverse image of nutty nadine norris. she is one of the faces of juststopoil and she deserves better.

the audience was almost completely for climate activism but i think they were all there. they will exaggerate the import of the event. rupert read is a weaselly professional agitator sucking the blood from the likes of pp and has an inordinately high opinion of himself. he mentioned the mistakes made by xr when the british public had had enough of xr tactics and dragged protestors off a tube train. he is sinister. he is obsessed with gb news and i will start tuning in because it scares him.

I attended an Intelligence squared "debate" (it wasn't) at the QE Hall Southbank this evening. There were 4 on the panel plus a Chair. A proper debate asks people before and after their view and did the debate influence them in any way. They usually try to create a balance too. In precis they were:

Chair - Ritula Shah professionally competent

Dr. Rupert Read - a patronising book promoter (the Ph.D is in Philosophy to save you looking it up) and a former XR spokesperson.

Phoebe Plummer - 21 year old activist who is queer, under a lot of stress due to imprisonment and 3 court cases awaiting whose claim to fame is throwing soup at an Old Master for JSO. She talks about herself a lot.

Tom Harwood - a disappointment but he was outnumbered and it was brave of him to attend and he didn't even have a book to promote.

Ben Okri - a lovely guy who obviously had nothing else on tonight and seemed a bit bewildered by it all. Still, he has a new book out. Mentioned the compulsory comparison to Nelson Mandela and climate change activists.

More tomorrow but it opened with a poem from Ben Okri. -

"We hear the future weeping

love shifts on vision dreams

the desert be fertilised with marigolds

should the tortoise bear the same weight as the elephant?"

Me neither.

I put my hand up but never got a question in but did make two heckles.

Hi Stevo - your explanation regarding fair value of Harbour (today 14.05) is explained in terms that those of us in the shallow end of the accountancy pool can understand. Using your formula I used $8 for our 2P of around 200mio barrels which gives c. $1.6bn + something for EP; knock off our debt and a nice round $1 billion. Am I warm?

Something else to throw in the mix - could gas reserves be holding back Harbour? The only reason I say that is because Energean were quite resilient and not UK invested but I notice a couple of funds have shorted them both?

"My Ancient Right to walk in the road has been taken away from me and everybody in this country"-

Deborah Wilde - juststopoil activist

https://twitter.com/JustStop_Oil/status/1678410481285906432

Er, Debs - that was before they invented pavements.

Shame that Labour moved from their old home of spin at Millbank house which kinda messed up my headline. There is though (from my reading) serious infighting going on at the top of Labour. This (imo) a reaction to the Sunday Times article.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/11/new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-fields-will-not-meet-uks-energy-needs

This appears to have been written by Tessa Khan although the Guardian says the author is Fiona Harvey. It totally misrepresents how the oil market operates and makes no allowance for energy security and why countries have SPR's. If your have your own reserves you are less reliant on foreign despots and can always use a 'force majeure' in extreme situations. You can just as easily say that we need to increase our production and reserves. The US take it seriously and are just about self sufficient. The whole point is that the UK has strategic advantage (as does Norway) by having its own reserves.

This Guardian response to the Sunday Times article makes it look like the green lobby and its friends within Labour are flailing. There was also talk at the weekend that Keir Starmer is due a shadow cabinet reshuffle and needs to show a ruthless side. Equivocation isn't a good look for Labour at present and there needs to be some firm leadership.

It is getting interesting. I don't see the Tories weaponising oil and gas. It is more a case that the climate activists base their arguments on pseudo-science and a blanket refusal to be realistic or represent what the bulk of people (voters) want and how they live their lives. Juststopoil are doing a grand job. Fringe, deluded nutters.

Reading this: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/dno-makes-significant-gas-condensate-find-north-sea-2023-07-10/#:~:text=COPENHAGEN%2FOSLO%2C%20July%2010%20(,its%20shares%20soaring%20almost%2015%25.

Bressay and Bentley together are bigger. If they ever got the go-ahead it would be transformational.

Headline on P.6 Politics today - "Starmer told Miliband: 'I'm not interested in tree-huggers. In fact I hate them'.

It says this is symptomatic of the divide that exists between Starmer and Miliband. People close to Starmer see Miliband as an eco-warrior who is more interested in the green agenda than the party's central priorities of jobs, bills and energy security. KS thinks the party's pledge to end all NS O&G licenses has been an unhelpful distraction and something the Tories can easily weaponise. Rachel Reeves is also a sceptic and another member of the shadow cabinet said the party risked shooting itself in the foot on the climate change agenda where there are "very few votes". There was even a discussion to change the colour of Labour's red rose emblem to green. Others overruled the idea including the unions who thought the idea was "mad". Starmer is now waking up to the disconnect between his own party's political and economic objectives.

It is understood he will visit Aberdeen this summer to talk to industry and union figures, after criticism of the party's proposals to freeze NS O&G licenses. Critics believe Labour has fallen into the same trap as the SNP - which has embraced the green agenda and has Green Party MSP's in the Holyrood cabinet - and risks losing voters. A senior Labour figure said: "It will just take one North Sea oil worker to stand up and say that despite being a lifetime Labour voter, they are going to vote Tory because of this policy, and it could be game over. We need to be the party that can sow the green shoots of recovery rather than the party of tree-huggers."

I will second what the hypothetical oil worker may do regarding voting. I hope I don't have to vote Tory. The article was written by Caroline Wheeler the political Editor. She is not a lightweight and her sources will be high-level.

Very encouraging. Later there is a cartoon with Kier Starmer rolling turf over Ed Miliband and burying him. It has Green Policy as the only words in the corner.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”

— William Arthur Ward

Before writing this I checked the last 10 year performance of Brent. It covers my time in oil with an initial disastrous investment in Xcite (Bentley). Lower interest rates were cancelled out by US shale and later Covid. A wet finger in the air would suggest around $50 before the Ukraine war and climate activism. Who can forget the negative fixing of WTI in April 2020? To have survived this period says a lot about our leadership. I don't blame AB for any of the headwinds.

JSO are doing a great job for us and have already driven Harbour's future developments out of the UK. There is no avoiding that oil from the NS is becoming tighter and field declines are a fact of life. Demand is likely to beat supply but that's OK as we can import it from overseas and bask in lower emissions (on paper).

My point is that in the past decade we never had a backstop. We have now! If something disastrous happened we would have a big bonus in increased profitability as the tax drops 35%. This will not have been missed by actuaries and those who invest on sure things. The pension funds must be surely tempted and not all have left fossils behind.

Whilst JSO continue their juvenile antics they deserve a pat on the back for allowing sensible lobbying and realism to enter the debate. What they're really protesting about is overseas flights (holidays) and conveniently forgetting the impact on imports and life essentials. The public wouldn't accept that and neither will they accept blackouts or rationing - that is the only logical conclusion whilst technology into getting sunbeams from cucumbers continues.

Hunt will NOT backtrack on the EPL imo because there are bigger threats to be dealt with; staying in power being one of them. Labour will tinker but they have been handed a kinda 'fait accompli' that means they can move onto other areas. I think Hunt and other talking heads have done a good job and the best thing Labour can do is leave it alone. I also imagine that wise and practical advisors have pointed out the benefits still accruing to Norway and maybe 'energy security' is more than a pithy slogan. With the current antipathy towards fossil fuels in the West I suspect that oil prices are heading into much higher territory. That will not go unnoticed by the new Labour administration.

Own it and stay open, they will come.

So why are you here chiro if solar is the answer? I could buy a Ferrari to get to the shops quicker but the lack of boot space instead made me choose a small SUV. With my mileage an EV made no sense and I don't worry about impressing the neighbours. Very few solar panels where I live unless a new or newish build. People are concerned with the integrity and appearance of their buildings plus upfront costs are a deterrent. My wife wouldn't have them - so even if I wanted them she wouldn't agree. If it makes me sound hen-pecked then you are very observant. I also don't wear sackcloth or sandals although I realise it would save me money.

Missed - renewables "anywhere between 3X and 9X cheaper I'm told"

I signed up to Net Zero watch for updates by email. They are further right than I usually go but my perfect political party doesn't exist. They are close to my views on energy security though and their view that common sense and subsidies have been lefty out of the debate. I watched QT last night and wouldn't mind having Johnny Mercer as my MP. There are still principled politicians and I'm not after perfection.

There was also an ITV programme about Renewables that didn't add to my knowledge apart from one item. Redrow are the first builder to abandon gas and only install heat pumps on new builds. I'm not sure I'll find the information but I wonder if Redrow receive a subsidy towards this? The most interesting for me was that solar panels are optional on their new build - I don't think they receive subsidies any longer (happy to be corrected). The point to me is that adding the solar panels means an added expense that many are not prepared to pay. You can end up with cheap energy but there is a big capital expense to begin with. Another point was that most installers are not MCS approved but instead work under an umbrella scheme which has opened the door to some sub-standard installations.

I looked at an old EPC on my property (I used it for accreditation purposes in 2010) and it is a 1994 build that got a D. I cast my mind back and A's were as rare as chicken's teeth and I only scored a couple. They were almost always relatively new flats (few years old) that had gas CH and were in the middle surrounded by other flats, above , below and on either side. That means fewer exposed walls and you nick the heat from adjoining properties. Going for an AB rating is commendable but near impossible [incidentally 10 Downing Street is rated F]

On QT Dale Vince said that with renewables you get 2.5 X more jobs. That may be true but it doesn't mention the salaries. I'd imagine sweeping debris and leaves from solar panels in fields aren't highly paid. I can't answer his second point that you also get twice as much GDP growth with renewables - the comparison is always against fossil fuels and I can't really check this and (of course) nobody on the panel could either.

One point though is why worry about solar panels on your property when renewables are so much cheaper (anywhere between and 9X cheaper I'm told). I'm still waiting for an electricity bill lower than before the war in Ukraine.