Member Info for romaron

Some great input Stevo. There is a retail investors presentation tomorrow at 14:00 https://www.investormeetcompany.com/enquest-plc/register-investor

I still feel there is an element of the new motorway being built and we won't vacate our small holding so they'll just have to build around us. We are a going concern that is likely to get stronger - admittedly dependent on the oil price but also the fact that we still require fossil fuels for 80% of our energy is missed by the public. The world would really grind to a halt if they stopped producing them. True what Stevo says in a world of low oil prices or ban on fossil fuels but unlikely to happen imo. There isn't a lot of help available for EnQuest presently and we rely on the politicians.

A timely reminder of the Magnus debt outstanding and decomm liabilities too. Perhaps they can be nailed down more accurately or with better info tomorrow? I expect the presentation will be run by Craig and Ian.

Affleck Development - just announced. Small field max peak 5,218 bopd. predictable response:

"Environmental groups like Greenpeace have slammed approval of new UK oil and gas project approvals.

When Talbot (co-mingles with Affleck) was greenlit in March, the NGO said: “They’ll claim it’s in the name of energy security but, since the oil and gas belongs not to the UK but the company extracting it, and will be sold on the open market to the highest bidder, this couldn’t be further from the truth.”

The likes of Greenpeace totally miss the point that we are net importers of oil so will only take the economic pain of not earning from our own natural resources. We'll still be using oil. No control over emissions and paying well over the odds. The economics of the madhouse.

Ithaca has bought the remaining stake in Cambo from Shell. The majors really have given up on the NS. The remaining SME's in the NS (I don't include HBR and think those suggesting they'll buy us are wrong) are now getting fields for ZERO but it isn't Net Zero. The ZERO is up front and I suppose there'll be a Magnus kinda deal following up.

We probably got a better deal when we took over the 10.5% interest of First Oil Expro in Kraken back in 2016 but they were going bust.

These are messages written to the government in blood. They seem blind and deaf to the entreaties. I hope somebody is collecting all the quotes that Labour made about "obscene profits from the major oil companies". They're still saying it when it is blatantly untrue.

I’m going to use Sekforde’s figures for 2024 in his 19:19 post. The $996mio is easier to calculate than the sales revenue.

So we have $60.60 a barrel b/e. (If the price slides EPL ceases at $71.40 and £0.54 per therm for gas and has to persist for 2 consecutive quarters). So you might save on EPL but whose to say the price doesn’t go much lower? It is actually a wet finger in the air number and pretending the 20 year historical price averages are useful reference points any longer is facile when we have Labour threatening to ban oil full stop and juvenile demonstrators being held up as some kind of martyrs. Putin and China won’t go gently into that good night either. Let’s ignore gas as we are almost all oil anyway.

Sekforde reminds us that the board always talks about growing the business and is part of the reason AB rebuffed my suggestion to run us into the ground – basically the stock market and the industry don’t work that way. Well, if you’re debt free and have a strategic holding it doesn’t really matter. The world has been turned on its head and oil is persona non grata in the West so f*ck ‘em I say. We aren’t realistically valued anyway by them so why hang around?

I will quite happily accept dividend from a private or overseas company. The market aberration should be ignored (there’s little we can do about it anyway). The actions of this government and probably a Labour one replacing it next year actually make it more likely that the oil price will be buoyant. Tessa Khan says oil is unimportant as we export most of it anyway. Let’s not educate her and we’ll just continue selling to the East and she can start demonstrating outside the Saudi, US or Norwegian embassies.

Sekforde has Capex of $170m. Fine. I hope it is spent on wringing out oil from older fields (organic growth) which just keeps us in the game for (say) another 5 years giving us a reserve life of 15 years which conveniently matches our economic life. We wouldn’t even have to throw money at the crackpot renewable schemes that are just Ponzi schemes to a large extent. The tax credits will have run out by then I guess but at the current price is a no-brainer.

There will be some years when our profit is bigger than our present MC. I think I’d invest in a company that could do that.

Hi Dumbly. Bit of self-promotion there but it does have nuggets of truth. It even made me look up what is classified as a SME because all the talk of "obscene profits being earned by major oil producers" certainly doesn't apply to us (or in fact any UK NS producer). In fact if we were American we would be classed as an SME.

Tory policy and Labour threats have ensured there will be no growth in any form of energy as things stand. My suggestion to AB at the 2022 AGM to run the business into the ground using the tax credits now looks like a potential path to follow. I know he responded that "it doesn't work like that" but unless we are cut some slack I don't see an alternative. Who would invest in O&G NS in the present business environment? What I do see is O&G in the ground becoming an asset growing in value due to the enforced shortage - not in the product itself but forced by barriers to extraction; mainly fiscal but with a huge dollop of virtue-signalling and evangelical zeal. Energy security is just words unless we have secret plans to invade Norway (a pincer move could actually work if our Swedish friends agree?).

Labour sound increasingly like an empty vessel and both parties are guilty of extreme expediency based on populism. The public enjoy the life that fossils have made possible but the religious cult that is based on "climate emergency" has converted many and speeded up that old trope and some even believe the promises - "be careful what you wish for".

The EPL was a sticking plaster but they pretended it was thought out policy based on sound economics and environmental benefits. Let's see what happens when we have black outs and rationing.

Https://twitter.com/aDissentient/status/1700573685604552769/photo/1

On Friday, the UK offshore wind fleet, all 14000MW of it, managed to produce...36MW.

Around a quarter of one percent.

https://twitter.com/NetZeroWatch/status/1700849753104204153/photo/1

Only this morning on LBC Andrew Fisher an adviser to Corbyn said that other countries were making a success of renewables. That's not how they see it in Germany. Jonathan Reynolds the the shadow business minister never really got past repeating 13 years of Tory mismanagement. He avoids talking about costs and where the subsidies will come from.

They need a panel with people who can destroy the claims of the likes of Fisher, Ed Miliband and Caroline Lucas immediately. The figures are complicated but these people are paid to understand them. They pretend that physics, science, data and costs are irrelevant.

The pressure is building and this is technical. "When an opponent is drowning, stick a hose in their mouth."

Actions can lead to regrets.

"The Labour by-election candidate who was embroiled in a row over his role in a Greenpeace eco-stunt while employed by the Bank of England is under investigation, the bank's Governor has told MPs."

The candidate, Alistair Strathern, has parked his principals for now.

I got this today - "Join us as we get out on the doorsteps in our campaign to win Mid Bedfordshire in the upcoming by-election! Sessions taking place at: 10am - 12pm 1pm - 3pm 3:30pm - 5:30pm 6pm - 8pm Mid Bedfordshire is a rural constituency so activists with cars are very helpful - if you have access to a car and are able to bring it to Mid Bedfordshire, please do! If you need a lift from Flitwick Station, please call 07597 851693"

So they're not anti-car when it suits them. I hope the electorate who do require cars and live in Mid Bedfordshire will vote accordingly. It is every day this week. I do hope they've sorted out their carbon offsets.

Worth listening to the comments he made on NS production (from 08:24:00) and EnQuest gets a mention 08:26:00.

*I'm in love with George Ford.

EnQuest got a mention on the Andrew Castle show this morning. It generated a call in from a concerned listener called "Ron in Barnet". You can listen to it at 08:36:40

I doubt it MM. None of my Jewish friends would go near anything to do with DIY and it was a Saturday (their Sabbath). I'm beginning to think he's an imposter. Apparently he normally has a bacon sarnie at the local cafe.

*The Jewish equivalent of DIY is GSI (get someone in).

Net Zero has turned into a quasi-religious debate says Mervyn King, ex-Governor of the Bank of England. Today Daily Telegraph.

I mentioned this to Jesus who I bumped into in Screwfix this morning. He was taking advantage of a sale promotion of nails (his family is in the carpentry business). He laughed and said ‘twas ever thus.

Back in Medieval times his family had a nice little earner in “indulgences” and the only difference is that today they have been replaced by carbon credits. He doesn't believe that climate change is anything new. To illustrate he showed me a postcard from a guy Matt who worked for him briefly.

“And every one that heareth these sayings of mine, and doeth them not, shall be likened unto a foolish man, which built his house upon the sand: And the rain descended, and the floods came, and the wind blew, and beat upon that house; and it fell: and great was the fall of it. Bit hot here and the locals aren’t that friendly. Best, Matt”

Matthew 7:26-7 (Ethiopia)

Is that thunder I hear?

Hi onedb - I think the situation is slowly moving back into our favour. The fault lines of climate communism are becoming more apparent everyday. India have overtaken us and now are the 5th largest economy in the world. Average GDP per capita there is $2,600 and in UK $50,000 They will become a world power and I don't see them easily giving up the advantages of fossil fuels.

They won't be happy until they have driven O&G producers from the NS and the ridiculous date of 2030 for clean power generation by Labour is meaningless. Another one to spike Ed Miliband's head on.

Unless there is a row-back fossil fuels will become anathema in the West whilst BRICS become more powerful by the day. There could even be a black-market in O&G and if the current situation continues there is no likelihood of fossil fuels getting cheaper.

This support both our major parties and there is even a future for the NS with oil at $200 a barrel due to its rarity value (think gold and diamonds).

It is livening up and for AB to go public is in itself a major change. Both parties have been warned and the electorate is watching. A shortage and enforced rationing of fossil fuels is not far away. It would destroy both parties.

The true cost of renewables is leaching into the media.

Where are 33rd licensing round results? My guess is that they'll be released late on a Friday.

Build it and they will come [except it is looking less likely that they'll build in the UK].

Https://twitter.com/aDissentient/status/1700203934663545221/photo/1

The thing is that as incompetent as Hunt has been Labour have promised to be even more incompetent and draconian.

Labour are frozen on this one and cornered. The 9X quote was widely used - In his New Year speech 5 Jan 2023 listen from 22:06 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26nmVQdJAsM

"backed by investment" er, little bit hasty and they're running out of time for the plan of 100% clean power generation" by 2030.

"A number of sources have told The Times they understood the auction had failed to procure any big new offshore wind farms, after the government ignored repeated industry warnings that support on offer was too low to reflect soaring inflation."

Not our problem. Let the politicians fight over it. Nothing another subsidy can't put right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upD6cB9Rzvk

From the FT

"The news isn’t expected to get much better. Offshore wind executives have low expectations for a key renewable energy contract auction, the results of which are due on Friday. Trade bodies representing the biggest developers in the business are calling for reform of the way offshore wind is funded in Britain. Expect those calls to intensify.

Costs have rocketed by 40 per cent this year. Little that goes into making an offshore wind farm, from the turbines to the cabling, has been untouched by inflation-busting price rises.

The industry is partly to blame. In recent years it has raced to deliver projects at lower and lower prices. Developers have squeezed suppliers. Now the supply chain is not only passing on big increases in raw material and energy prices, it is also trying to recover margins. "

I hope Labour are watching. They'll be expected to refill the punch bowl. And they thought renewables were the gift that kept on giving. They're running out of hiding places.

UK ‘completely uncompetitive’ for oil and gas investment, says EnQuest CEO - headline in Energy Voice today. Taken from a quote he made at Offshore Europe which has a conference this week.

"“We clearly now are completely uncompetitive in the upstream oil and gas business,” said the EnQuest CEO of the UK regime.

“It’s very difficult for us to invest in such short-term, short-cycle, and I think something the investment horizon or investment allowances – or a shift to the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) is probably needed to create a fairway for investment.”"

He was on a panel with Doris Reiter BP, Steve Nicol of Wood, Oliver Holden, Deloitte and Ross Dorman OEUK.

He added [AB] "It puts our future prospects at risk. The international competition for investment is fierce; other countries are putting packages in place to encourage companies and investment into their countries. The UK does risk getting left behind unless we take fast action.”

CEO of OEUK, David Whitehouse, told the conference: “We mustn’t get left behind, but the signs are worrying.

“It’s clear to me that the windfall tax is biting. All credible net zero scenarios say we need abated oil and gas in the UK for decades to come, and yet in the first six months of this year, we produced 30% less crude oil from the North Sea than the same period last year; we are seeing lowest production levels on record in the UK.

“With investment on hold, we’re undermining our energy security.”

The industry is bringing the battle to the politicians. This is a major leap for AB who prefers privacy. He is fighting tooth and nail.

That is unsurprising but a far bigger game is afoot. Some of the programming of algos is actuarial and closer to the calculation of gambling odds. They may even be programmed by AI for all I know but humans started it but can now hardly compete. This is pertinent.

On Tuesday in the 4.20 at Ripon a horse called 'Doom' was beaten in a 2 horse race at odds of 1-25. It moved from 1-12 to 1-25. The winner 'Karmology' went off at 9-1 [spooky names]. Racing history and only equaled as long ago as 1948 (pre algos).

The Betfair exchange saw turnover of £451,000 on the race, with £407,000 of that on the 1-25 favourite who traded at the minimum odds of 1-100 during the race. Karmology was matched at 109-1 in-running. I'd say the in running was the algos feeding on themselves.

Those numbers back up my opinion. Individuals don't bet at those odds but almost guaranteed returns attract algos. Some of what we are seeing is exactly this. If EPL was adjusted in our favour you would see the opposite of Tuesday in EnQuest shares. I remember years ago when the public were in thrall to privatisation and the practically guaranteed returns available. More money was found behind sofas to buy into BT and British gas than for the Grand National.

We cannot compete with algos and they usually win. They are however short-term and effectively brokers.

The jury is still out as they say and the next race is a combination of an election and the next stage of the so called "energy transition". There is too much ideology and cultism wrapped up in the narrative at present. Change is on the way.

Hi Frac - I do exactly that. Fire off letters and emails whilst attempting to get past the producers and on the air, usually at LBC. My ambition is to get into "idiots corner", sent there by the sanctimonious James O'Brien. It is the equivalent of being labelled a 'deplorable' but at least you get impact. It is i.m.o. a waste of time getting on a right wing outlet as you just become another 'deplorable' in an echo chamber. There are elements of that if you only post on here. It becomes circular although I'm sure having a whinge is therapeutic it doesn't improve or publicise our case. It is easier for me as I'm retired but I don't do it all the time and still have other interests. I am building a case on excessive local authority spending (Enfield) that may have legs and gain publicity that will help our case. We have been robbed by excitable as well as sinister ideolgs who manipulate the media.

It is erratic but eventually a resistance of ordinary people will coalesce because there is a cost to this and much of the climate case is based on hyperbole and impossible claims. Targets are plucked out of thin air (1.5 degrees, 2050).

There are signs of improvement. AB has now 'come out' and dropped the diplomatic language. juststopoil seem to have been defeated. Most people realise that Labour have yet to produce actual numbers and attacking populist targets will harm the country.

If each of us put up small resistance it will trickle through. Common sense is on our side.

Rachel Reeves labour shadow chancellor talking to Ian Dale on LBC minutes ago:

In reply to where the funding will come.

Abolish non-dom

VAT on private school fees

Tax Private Equity as income rather than capital gains

and

"a proper windfall tax on the huge profits the energy companies are making" followed a little later with

"will bring in billions of pounds by closing the loop-holes which means that big energy companies can get out of paying the so called windfall tax the government has introduced"

And I thought she was beginning to sound competent. Scary. Not just for the oil and gas industry but for the country. I hope somebody taps her on the shoulder and tells her the profits from the NS are imaginary and if she wants to close it early she's going the right way about it. BP and Shell have all but left the UK basin along with others looking for fiscal stability and opportunities to produce. The 33rd round of new licenses will be illuminating. Where are they?

In The Times today under headline "EnQuest boss blames profit levy for $21m half-year loss".

"Amjad Bseisu, a prominent Conservative Party donor, attacked the energy profits levy (EPL) as his company blamed the tax for driving it to a half-year net loss of $21.2m, down from a $203.5m net profit in the same period last year.

Bseisu said that the impact of the tax on Britain was that 'we're reducing our production, we're reducing our jobs and we're increasing our carbon footprint. The industry is investing less, and we are investing less, because we would have looked at more developments without the EPL impact'. He said that the levy was also 'destroying the jobs that we have' in the industry roles he argued would otherwise provide the expertise to support cleaner energy in future. Bseisu said that Britain had 'lost competitiveness due to the adverse change in the fiscal regime' and warned that it had seen 'capital abandon the UK' in favour of America, Africa and Asia."

Asked whether Labour's threats to curb North Sea development were a concern, Bseisu said he would have to wait and assess their policies if elected. 'Talking when you're in opposition is different from when you're in government and trying to create jobs,' he said.

------

AB spoke directly to the Times and it is the strongest I have seen from him. Almost at Linda Cook volume.

The article finished with:

"A Treasury spokesman said its energy security investment mechanism - the new price floor on the windfall tax - would give investors the confidence to keep investing in domestic oil and gas production."

I think they were taking the p*ss.