Member Info for romaron

Thought that's throw you. It did me. Yesterday Craig kept mentioning ESOM and I didn't want to show my ignorance. I found out today that it is the Energy Security Investment Mechanism which is about as much help as an ash tray on a motorbike. That is the worthless commitment to repeal EPL if for 6 months oil goes to $71.40 and gas £0.54 per therm. They have gone back to a period where shale depressed oil and gas was dumped by Russia. No connection to real life now and of course they are linked. Both have to move. Inflation is used for every other argument, especially with renewables, but not for O&G. The ESIM is an insult and they don't even see the irony of including "Investment" in the title.

Craig said they were trying to get the gas connection removed. Not necessarily just EnQuest and he possibly meant OEUK. To me it reads that if gas dropped below .54p a therm NS companies involved in gas are stymied because oil needs to move too and consensus is that is unlikely. Or it needs to be removed because if EPL remains and makes gas operations in the NS uneconomic then it will mean we import more from overseas (LNG) with extra costs and emissions. I also read into it that it would make some M&A easier. The EPL affect reduces RBL and smaller companies like us rely on it. We aren't as lucky as Harbour with easy access to the Bond market with their size and rating.

It also seems to confirm that gas is a direction we're moving towards. I wrote yesterday that we might be involved in buying some of Shell's southern gas fields but googling suggests that there are 3 bidders and we aren't one of them. Perhaps Craig was using them as an example of the problems with ESIM. I may well have got that wrong but why did he bring it up? Gas is byzantian but escapes some of the opprobrium that oil attracts (there is no 'juststopgas').

I also mentioned $2.3bn immediately available and $1.3-1.4bn in 2025 and called them tax credits. Another investor asked if they were tax credits or tax losses. I don't know. I assume one of you clever sods can clarify. I just write the numbers down.

Declaration of Directors’ financial interests In accordance with the NSTA’s conflict of interest policy, Directors must declare any financial interests which may, or may be perceived to, influence their judgment in performing their duties as Directors of the NSTA. This is done on appointment and annually. Directors are further asked to declare any conflicts of interest at the start of each board meeting. If a Director declares a conflict of interest with any agenda item, they will not participate in the discussion of that item. The Board does not consider the interests held by Tim Eggar and Iain Lanaghan to be sufficiently significant to impair their independent judgement in Board discussions. The Board does not consider that any decision within the NSTA’s powers could materially impact the value of their shareholdings. Directors’ declared interests are shown below.

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Andy Samuel placed his oil and gas interests in a blind trust prior to joining the NSTA. He resigned from the Board on 31st December 2022. Malcolm Brown’s investments are held in managed funds over which he has no control. Sara Vaughan, Sarah Deasley, Stuart Payne and Nic Granger submitted nil returns. Fiona Mettam and Vicky Dawe submitted a nil return to DESNZ. Tim Eggar had 4099 BP and 1875 Shell shares. Ian Lanaghan had 1017 BP and 8266 Shell. - Source NSTA annual Report & Accounts 2022-23 P.30

So, with the super-major's headlong rush for the exit if we ignore Shell & BP these Directors have Zero interest in the North Sea. Malcolm Brown might have some in a managed fund and chances are they'll only hold Shell or BP. They say it makes them impartial. It also appears they don't hold any renewables. I've written to NSTA asking when the 33rd Licensing round will be announced. I'm not impartial.

Thanks Zippy and Oxygen - the Zippy comment regarding RH ties in with personal reasons and we all have personal interests which are no business of others but can be misconstrued (another investor immediately jumped to a M&A conclusion) or turned into conjecture. And I think Oxygen is spot on. There will be two November statements - one from the Chancellor and an operations update from EnQuest. The company is pressing their case hard and the dangers from EPL and its effect on RBL and future growth and M&A in the NS. I think all investors should pepper their MPs and associated organisations. It builds up evidence, even if sent to the company. Individually we are powerless but in other areas we have as much power as the CEO or Chairman, more in fact, because we have a vote. If the politicians get plenty of mail or momentum builds they will ignore us at their peril. It is easy to blame it on others or "they" should be doing something. They cannot do it alone.

In fact a letter from a constituent may have more effect. Ask a question that means they will have to either ask the minister or read up on a statement. The performance of BP and Shell speaks volumes. The only companies in the NS that suffered minimal EPL tax were the super-majors - the whole campaign was based on obscene profits by oil giants. They hardly scraped the surface of BP & Shell but cratered a lot of medium size companies whose cooperation is essential for the transition which will take decades.

Apologies if I jump about. Labour are now more responsive and meetings have been arranged. For a long while we (the industry) were ignored. He did mention Bressay but I said 'no chance' if Cambo doesn't happen and he also said you should include Claire. The EPL impact is hurting on RBL. The bank's over-caution means that a relaxation of the EPL would have improve significantly the leverage with a higher RBL and stimulate M&A.

The recent 'call for evidence' with HMRC could produce results but personally I think it is what suits the politics at the time. There is now an accepted problem at meetings regarding the 'windfall tax' that is impacting on those not intended as targets and most necessary to foster if there is to be a future for O&G in the NS. Privately many politicians remark with "I had no idea" or "I didn't know that" but almost all are now looking closer at the next election.

That's about it. I think Craig is as frustrated as we are with the wilful misrepresentation from certain quarters. I am convinced there are some sleeper 'climate activists' in government and NSTA who slow progress and information. Or is it just the amount of paperwork and a broken system - it is accepted in planning in the property world that the system is broken and we have the added problem that anything involving fossil fuels attracts words like "obscene or crisis". It is often a polarised debate full of slogans.

I think Craig was open and told me as much as governance allows. I was satisfied with the replies and happy to hold. I'm not selling but government won't ease the EPL unless it looks likely that it is to a political advantage. That point hasn't arrived imo but we shouldn't let up on pressurising our MPs, NSTA and even radio call-ins. He did say that letters should be kept short (1 page max) as longer diatribes are considered rants and binned. Less is more in this case.

I'll sleep better tonight.

It looks like only 3 of us were interested in the company losing its COO. I emailed IR and was unhappy with the reply. RH is being replaced by a General manager. To me these events are serious indicators and could be a sell signal. You can only get so much from an email and eventually need a conversation. Something similar happened to me with Xcite and I sold out within 2 days of the call. They will always say that the resignation was amicable etc. but it doesn't hurt to dig deeper. There has always been an air of mystery (to me) about where RH fitted in but it tended to be "abroad".

I spoke to Craig Baxter, Head of IR today and got some answers.

It is for personal reasons that RH spends a certain time in the UK and I was satisfied as that fits in with his movements since I have been invested. It does of course open the question of has his job been lost due to a future M&A. I was told we have 4 processes ongoing - 3 of which are in the public domain. I don't expect to be told sensitive stuff.

It was good of Craig to give me time as he was on holiday. I obviously took advantage and asked questions which probably interest me more and will post later as I remember the points we covered.

One thing for sure is that we should not underestimate the effort the company is putting into getting our arguments to government. He referred several times to a "third party" in this respect and they are consultants who act as interlocutors in getting meetings. He said that the NSTA were guilty of 'moving goal posts' and this is unsurprising to any sensible person. Most government departments/quangos are under resourced and have limited powers [*we retail investors need to write to NSTA more] AB is pushing hard and Gareth Penny has high level contacts in government. He did say (and it is no surprise) that the level of knowledge about how the O&G industry works among politicians is woeful.

One thing I'll remember is that the last tinkering with EPL was on the 17 Nov 2022 (imprinted on Craig's memory) and the super-majors BP and Shell's share price went up. I don't have to tell you what happened to those of us relying on the NS. If that doesn't torpedo the EPL argument then I don't know what will.

Craig made the point that ex-employees like Bob Davenport and Jonathan Swinney are still close and working with the company as consultants. I also learned that JS is a NED with Seadrill.

We have $2.3bn tax credits for immediate use and $1.3-1.4bn available in 2025.

He repeated several times that their plans were to "rebase" the company. It probably means more to you 'numbers' guys. He was pushing that line hard.

He mentioned Shell's proposed sales of gas fields in the Southern North Sea. We are involved and I assume this is one of the 3 processes. It doesn't mean they'll go anywhere. I think that the .54p EPL 'get out' base could be a handicap here as they [EnQuest] would like it removed. More later if I remember.

This was said in reference to a Labour politician who'd upset his master. Not because the master had a revelation about the cost and efficiency of renewables and a life without fossil fuels. More to do with the possibility that it could cost Labour 20 seats in Scotland at the next election. Confirmation of what I have been saying for some time. Who can the master blame when he quoted at Davos that "in the UK renewables are 9X cheaper than oil and gas". His underling did say on 6 November on the 'Sunday with Laura Kuensberg' that "solar and wind power is 9X cheaper than fossil fuels" [not to self - anniversary in a month - must send card]

Always sad when a nonentity has a second chance but that is where empty plastic bags end up. Stuck up a tree, blowing aimlessly, no one knows how it got there and nobody really cares.

Martinen - that is unfair and plain wrong. Here's a thought and it's about AB. Not our CEO but the merger of A and B shares by Shell. At the time the reason given was - "the simplification was designed to strengthen Shell's competitiveness and accelerate both shareholder distributions and the delivery of its strategy to become a net-zero emissions business."

We have 4 processes going - 3 are public knowledge - "what if" the streamlining helps to achieve or take advantage of opportunities that these times will force.

From my 19 Sept post -

"Whilst here I asked the CEO of Serica at QA today if they had bid for any licenses in the 33rd Round. He replied YES, and that they were close to existing fields and mainly tie-backs if oil/gas found. He said they were told they'll get results by end of September but he isn't holding his breath. I think we'll have to get the two conferences out of the way before clarity imo."

I think we can safely say the end of September has gone.

Wandering in a vast forest at night, I have only a faint light to guide me. A stranger appears and says to me: 'My friend, you should blow out your candle in order to find your way more clearly.' The stranger is a theologian. -Denis Diderot, philosopher (5 Oct 1713-1784)

Https://mailchi.mp/abd94a4a5981/foisting-green-levies-onto-gas-bills-will-cause-public-health-crisis-sunak-warned-199052?e=35cf3821be

The thing is that in the UK the only time you might benefit from a heat pump is if you live in a relatively new house and/or are about to do a complete upgrade of the fabric including decoration. I'm not convinced that electricity will ever become cheaper due to the grid upgrades necessary, capex and opex plus Jevons Paradox keeping the pressure on. Intermittency is an ever present and has not been solved. A battery the size of Essex might work but then where would you put your solar panels?

When will the penny drop with politicians that the public are sick to the back teeth with promises. The money being wasted on uneconomic and unfeasible projects are costing us far more than HS2 ever will.

It is a truism that almost any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so. -Robert A. Heinlein, science-fiction author (7 Jul 1907-1988)

This will interest a few of you. I picked this EPC out at random https://find-energy-certificate.service.gov.uk/energy-certificate/2678-9085-7247-5978-0990

I chose it because it was rated in 2018 so pretty fresh. It is very typical for the area. You can see after the breakdown it offers solutions into how you can raise the rating from D to B. The loft insulation recommendation is now (I believe) 270mm).

The 4 recommendations are further down and you can see the incremental gains. The 'typical insulation costs' 2018 figures I assume are between £17k-£34k for an annual saving of £592 p.a. Lets say between 30-50 years to breakeven. You might be tempted to do some of theses things on a refurb but not on a refit if you were a landlord and I believe Enfield Council could be called a landlord.

This is another random EPC https://find-energy-certificate.service.gov.uk/energy-certificate/0056-0220-8502-4505-7400 [they're all public domain] and I tried to get one practically up to date to see if they're now suggesting ASHPs. It looks like they aren't but you can see that photovoltaic is cheaper than in 2018. To get the benefit of ASHP you should consider the wall and floor insulation in an older home. The actual costs are pretty frightening and I wouldn't consider them unless I won the Enfield Lottery.

*In Summer 2019, Enfield declared a Climate Emergency. In Autumn 2023 romaron declared a Sustainability emergency in Enfield.

Ooh Frac, and I thought you were one of the more sensible posters. This is pure propaganda. It is only a saving of £44 presently. As electric prices go through the roof (pardon the pun) then the savings will be much, much higher. It will be divisive but the money will be welcome for maintenance and replacement of the panels. At the moment you have the fossil fuels bogey man - you know, that rapacious extorter of obscene profits taken from single mothers and orphans.

I see a windfall tax heading towards renewables once there is nobody else to blame for high energy prices.

The recommendations on an EPC are almost always ignored because if people don't get payback pretty quickly they won't spend the capital to maybe pass it on to the next owner of the property. The only one that is a no brainer is loft insulation. Double glazing helps a little but usually installed to reduce maintenance and remove rotten wooden frames.

Social housing doesn't have such a restraint and Councils love virtue signalling. The only reason there are the limited number of solar panels was due to the early subsidies otherwise known as feed-in-tariffs. They were very generous - once.

*You'll be pleased to know that 10 houses in Edmonton, in the Borough of Enfield now have solar panels installed, plus external wall insulation, mechanical ventilation, and heat recovery, triple glazing, new doors, and ASHPs. All at the bargain price of just £127,700 per property. There is a downside in that each resident now has to contribute £35 a month towards the improvements under a "Comfort Plan".

https://www.enfield.gov.uk/news-and-events/2023/05/haselbury-homes-become-models-of-sustainability

The pressure must be relentless on AB. There is NO appetite for oil and gas stocks. It's NO better with renewables. Check Orsted's prices and only the gullible invest in Tidal and Hydrogen. Solar is a Chinese industry and is cheap - at the expense of land and you have guaranteed intermittency - it's called night-time whilst dull days don't help either. It is possible to present an argument that Renewables (basically wind) are more expensive than Nuclear.

Has anybody addressed the problems facing the Grid. Nimbys want the lines buried but that cost is what cratered HS2 (London-Birmingham) to a large extent. Intermittency from wind remains.

I'm clinging on to the basic common sense of the British public rejecting the cultism surrounding renewables and asking for audited costs - not what the politicians or campaigners produce. Life as we know it cannot continue without fossil fuels.

Until this year I'd never written to my Council, the Mayor or my MP. That has changed. I'm now on my 4th FOI with Enfield and believe it or not influential people are asking me if they can use my findings. I have had encouragement from the industry and my emails are now answered. I suppose I will now be described as a campaigner. I don't see it that way. I bought a product - shares in an oil company - and politicians desperate desire for power meant they took short term measures that increases energy INSECURITY and impoverishes the country using a mixture of fear and suspect "models" of Armageddon. They have let me down and if they want my vote they need to make reparations, to me.

And don't tell me about future rewards from renewables. We have over two centuries of railway building experience and hasn't HS2 gone well!

*I hope HS2 is saved. Labour's silence is deafening. Where will they find the money?

There is a bigger problem. There has been next to NO new field developments in the NS in the past decade. Kraken itself is an outlier, and Mariner too, in the sense that they may be the last fields (Rosebank may still fail) You can only shuffle old declining fields for so long from larger to smaller companies. That is another transition the politicians seem unaware of. The majors have all but left. Apache says it is "harvesting". Maybe sucking fields dry with minimal capex is more accurate. Eventually the whole basin lacks the economic scale to survive. Wasn't there some problems with the Forties pipeline for instance?

The transition was meant to be a steady glide to 2050. It isn't and both parties are to blame. Labour need to do nothing and let the damage permeate through. They have a short window of being able to blame it all on the Tories and appease the eco-zealots by speeding up the demise of the industry based on science and data that is challenged. It may cause a few problems with energy security and tax revenue but it really is a case of "be careful what you wish for". We will need fossil fuels for decades but both parties seem happy with importing them from abroad. Tories strangling growth and a future with EPL and Labour promising NO new fields. How long do both parties think we'll have before a CLOSED sign goes up on the NS. I'd say 15 years on the outside and a steady decline to the end - matched by an steady increase on imports of oil & products, LNG and natural gas from Norway (highly bid).

Are there any grown-up business people left in politics. Have any of them heard of intermittency. Do they not see any benefit, past or future, in oil and gas? We've stopped gliding and jumped out - cutting the parachute cords on the way down so we can proudly say we led the world in abandoning fossil fuels [whilst the r.o.w. continue to use them]

Https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/30/the-quotes-were-5000-or-more-electric-vehicle-owners-face-soaring-insurance-costs?CMP=share_btn_tw

This is self-explanatory:

https://mailchi.mp/1c37d244d68b/open-peer-review-the-truth-about-weather-extremes?e=35cf3821be

I remember (just about) the trip my grandmother took me on to Canvey in 1953. It must have been days after the disaster but the flooding was still visible. We haven't had another in 60 years and there was only one storm surge in that time with a similar potential. That's why insurers have risks like "1 in a 100 years" and continue to issue policies. I can also remember the Great Storm of 1987 - I haven't experienced one similar since. Floods and natural disasters are a part of climate and always have been. The only real difference is that less people are killed by them and we have better warnings and reactions.

Labour win and follow through with their threats. Phoebe Plummer becomes official adviser to Ed Miliband now known (unofficially) as "King of Renewables". Warnings of blackouts and food shortages due to a lack of fertilizer are ignored. Energy costs skyrocket but are ignored as the promise of renewables and the cold is only temporary continues. In the media Carbon Credits are now known more accurately as "Medieval Indulgences". The UK drops out of the G7 and is replace by Qatar.

Reluctantly EnQuest accept that Apache Corp and romaron were correct and the NS is left as a harvesting asset that will soon be uneconomic. They privatise and move to the ME. Equinor backs out of the Rosebank development due to Labour hostility and no economic model of scale as the industry withers. Job opportunities increase. Thousands return to farming to replace the no longer legal tractors and harvesters (diesel) which are too expensive to run anyway although most land now has a turbine or a solar panel on it.

Oxen magnate romaron tells voters that he did warn them.

I don't know how this got missed by the message board. I believe it deserves a subject title of its own and thank Oilman (07:03) for posting the link.

I've been in EnQuest longer than most of the EnQuest board and come to that the Senior Management. Is AB impossible to work with?

A couple of points to mention. He [RH] starts at Dana on 6 November. That's quick, was he out of contract? He was always a kinda floater imo and he disappeared for a while and I wondered if he had moved to newer pastures once Kraken was up and running. I even asked Ian Wood at an AGM if he still worked for them and the reply was "yes I think so, I saw him in the office a few days ago" (he wasn't based in London) because of his absence (pre Covid St.James AGM from memory).

Another point is that AB did say (almost as an afterthought) that they would get more involved with gas at the last AGM. The Chairman of Dana has a similar background to AB and is of Iraqi heritage. Dana is a private company with echoes of AB's family interests. It is probably impossible that they don't know each other very well. No RNS on RH's exit but I expect one on his replacement.

Something is afoot imo.

*probably irrelevant but RH was at the last AGM and I asked Ian Wood WTF had RH done to his barnet. It was jet black. A syrup or a Crown Topper would have been less noticeable. They seem to be more tolerant of male grooming in the Arab world.

To avoid confusion I'm a fan of Fergus Ewing. I also have a grudging admiration of Lee Anderson for instance and that's my problem. I am centrist but appreciate policies of groups and individuals where I abhor the majority of their policies.

If there was a "Pragmatist Party" that campaigned on realism and common sense I'd join it.

My quest against Enfield Council (next to go bankrupt) concerning unaudited spending of (a mere) £1.27mio continues and has taken me down another rabbit hole. My FOI (three so far) has resulted in them using a section 43 (2) defence.

"I can confirm that the Council holds this information. This information is exempt under Section 43 (2) of the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) and is therefore being withheld. "

Basically they have spent the money moving 10 homes from an EPC rating of D/E rating to a C. This is roughly an annual saving of between £400- £700 for each home. The homes are paying a £35 a month increase to the council under a "Comfort Plan". Kinda nets out. The only losers are the people providing the £1.277 mio to fund this extravagance.

The winners appear to be the contractors.

It isn't over.

Organic obviously. Fergus Ewing applied the definition to the Scottish Greens. He also called them "hard left extremists". He has been suspended by the SNP Party. Something to do with empty bottles. The jocks are good at emptying them but not so keen on the recycling. At least I think that's what it is about.

Anyway he disobeyed the Fuehrer, Humza Yousaf and is now suspended. He has more "bottle" than many politicians - just the wrong type.