Member Info for romaron

Clarification - I listened again. It is probably almost impossible to quantify exactly where the oil from the North sea goes and as AB says it is a fungible product. Mike Tholen actually said "We are a massive importer of petroleum from Rotterdam. We don't have the capacity to refine all the oil we need in the UK. We import about half of all our petroleum from Rotterdam and from around Europe".

This muddies the water and feeds into the NZ campaign narrative. They glibly say - "but the oil will be exported" without explaining how oil is refined and the lack of adequate refineries in the UK (Jim Ratcliffe has a lot to say about this). The public are probably unaware so in this aspect juststopoil and Tessa Khan win by manipulating the reality. It needs a firm rebuttal.

Perhaps a riposte is to demand that the activists explain exactly where the sunlight and wind goes? The gas from Rosebank goes straight to the UK.

When will Ed speak?

Michael Tholen OEUK was on LBC this morning (08:13). He made an interesting remark that educated me. It was following on from a remark that Tessa Khan (always available - would turn up to envelope opening) that the oil from Rosebank would be exported anyway. He pointed out that half UK oil goes to Rotterdam where it is refined and exported back to the UK.

We are a massive importer of petroleum. We import half our petroleum and around half our petroleum comes from Rotterdam and around Europe according to Tholen (and he should know). Rosebank will be cleaner than most other oil production too.

Some of the calls were encouraging. A caller mentioned that the simple answer of get the train doesn't really work if you want to deliver to Tesco.

*What is interesting is that the heavyweights are in hiding. Labour put Jonathan Reynolds up - predictable and glued to Labour's ambivalent position. We are seeing experts showing their faces like the Chairman of Ithaca, Equinor's UK guy, Michael Tholen. It was accidental that I listened in to LBC this morning so please, if people hear stuff can they post it here. It all adds up.

Led the news on BBC this evening. You had Tessa Khan predictably repeating her slogans but more interestingly the Chairman of Ithaca balancing her stridency along with Equinor's Arne Gürtner. The analysis after was much more interesting. The BBC climate editor said that NZ is a legal obligation and "some campaigners" will take the government to court but the political editor Chris Mason was much more interesting. He said Labour's response was "fascinating". They did not oppose it and had they done it would have blocked it. They are presenting an image of economic responsibility and political stability. I think Labour sense a trap and beginning to sense that the voters aren't as convinced about renewables as Ed Miliband.

There was another commentator, Nick Stern of Grantham Research saying that Rosebank doesn't improve our energy security and only renewables can do that. I'd like to ask him how he'd feel about buying weapons for our military from Saudi Arabia and Russia? Maybe our next adversary would agree to settle it with kite fighting (providing it's a windy day)?

The real tester though will be Cambo and Bressay. Do they advance? I imagine there was some horse-trading around this as the Cambo RNS was only 15 days before the Rosebank RNS. In oil terms the sheets were still warm. Now it has been announced we may get some leaks.

I'm still wondering when we'll hear about the 33rd round of licenses?

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asias-coal-sector-sees-long-prosperous-life-despite-energy-transition-russell-2023-09-27/

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-serious-is-russias-fuel-export-ban-who-will-be-hit-2023-09-27/

You can't get around real life by relying on angel's tears and unicorn horn shavings. Coal, diesel and petrol very much in demand. Russia is such an important producer but they are at war. It is costing them more than the West as a percentage of GDP with sanctions playing their part.

Meanwhile in Bali ""The reality is that coal demand will continue to increase," Septian Hario Seto, Indonesia's deputy of investment at its Coordinating Ministry for Maritime and Investment Affairs, told the conference.

This was a common view, with delegates expressing scepticism over the pathways to net-zero emissions advocated by Western bodies such as the International Energy Agency.

And from rentagob:

"Tessa Khan, executive director of Uplift argued the decision proves Rishi Sunak “couldn’t care less about climate change.”

“As we’ve heard repeatedly, our world can no longer sustain new oil and gas drilling. And when we’re witnessing scorching temperatures, wildfires, devastating flooding and heatwaves in our seas, it could not be clearer that this is a decision by the Prime Minister to add more fuel to the fire,” she said.

Funny - that wasn't the climate experience in Barnet. Let's see what winter brings.

I meant Ithaca's share price. I wonder if the healthy Brent price has anything to do with it and the timing shortly before the Tory Conference. A confident announcement - not a Friday afternoon one. An encouraging sign. Await Labour's response.

Let's see the effect on its share price.

It obviously doesn't copy and paste easily. I find it encouraging if you're invested in O&G. It's what happens to Brits when we get taken for granted. Labour are in bed with juststopoil and my own MP and Sadiq Khan dodged the blocking of roads by saying that the right to protest was an inalienable right and Labour abstaining from the vote on the Public Order Act which freed up our roads and bridges. My MP proudly boasted that he had voted against amendments and was making life difficult for the Tories.

Whole email without graphics and the "I'll chip in" box

We’re neck-and-neck in London, Ronald.

A shocking new poll from The Times has the Tories just *one percent* behind Labour in London.

Remember: the Tories changed the voting system to make it easier for them to win.

This is serious, Ronald. We can’t let the Tories do to London what they’ve done to the UK...

Especially when you consider the extreme out-of-touch Tory candidate for Mayor. We’re talking about someone who celebrated Liz Truss’s mini budget, which sent your mortgages and rents soaring, and who liked tweets praising Enoch Powell.

We cannot risk having a Tory Mayor, Ronald.

Can you spare £10, £20 or £30 to help fund important campaigns against the Tories -- in Enfield, Southgate -- and around London?

Remember: the Tories changed the voting system to make it easier for them to win.

This is serious, Ronald. We can’t let the Tories do to London what they’ve done to the UK...

Especially when you consider the extreme out-of-touch Tory candidate for Mayor. We’re talking about someone who celebrated Liz Truss’s mini budget, which sent your mortgages and rents soaring, and who liked tweets praising Enoch Powell.

We cannot risk having a Tory Mayor, Ronald.

Can you spare £10, £20 or £30 to help fund important campaigns against the Tories -- in Enfield, Southgate -- and around London?

We don’t have an endless supply of billionaire donors like the Tories, Ronald.

The Labour movement is funded by members and supporters like you, so believe me when I tell you that anything you send will go a really long way.

Thank you. I know that together, we can stop the Tories and keep London Labour for years to come.

Best wishes,

Angela

We don’t have an endless supply of billionaire donors like the Tories, Ronald.

The Labour movement is funded by members and supporters like you, so believe me when I tell you that anything you send will go a really long way.

Thank you. I know that together, we can stop the Tories and keep London Labour for years to come.

Best wishes,

Angela

Ooops - typo I wasn't trying to spread misinformation. I typed something that wasn't in the email accidentally. This should have been at the end "Why do they continue to demonise the oil & gas industry and attack motorists? I wouldn't really call that a vote winner but what do I know, I'm not a political strategist."

They are my words and thoughts obviously referring to Labour.

Does though indicate to me that Labour will be rethinking tactics and even policy. We cannot let up. Governments ALWAYS trump companies which is why I'm ignoring the market commentary for now as I imagine AB is. He'll have plans but unless the government offers some respite and there is a signal from Labour the O&G industry will remain in stasis. The indecision and uncertainty is a classic case of how to torpedo an essential industry and energy security.

Worried? Just received an email from Angela Rayner.]

"We’re neck-and-neck in London, Ronald.

A shocking new poll from The Times has the Tories just *one percent* behind Labour in London.

[ can't copy and paste but 2 bars saying

In Red Sadiq Khan 33%

In Blue Susan Hall 32%]

Remember: the Tories changed the voting system to make it easier for them to win. Why do they continue to demonise the oil & gas industry and attack motorists? I wouldn't really call that a vote winner but what do I know, I'm not a political strategist.

This is serious, Ronald. We can’t let the Tories do to London what they’ve done to the UK...

Especially when you consider the extreme out-of-touch Tory candidate for Mayor. We’re talking about someone who celebrated Liz Truss’s mini budget, which sent your mortgages and rents soaring, and who liked tweets praising Enoch Powell.

We cannot risk having a Tory Mayor, Ronald.

Can you spare £10, £20 or £30 to help fund important campaigns against the Tories -- in Enfield, Southgate -- and around London?"

I'll consider it if they stop telling lies about renewables and get rid of Ed Miliband.

Read and weep https://www.power-technology.com/news/report-majority-carbon-offsets-junk-or-useless/?cf-view

I can't even remember when we walked through the looking-glass.

*I realise my posts might be boring some of you but the intention is to post stuff that other holders may use when they're posting elsewhere, discussing with contacts or mailing their MP/Councillor. I don't listen to LBC everyday but I choose it because it is left leaning and supports climate activism (keep your enemy closer). I don't want to (for example) follow GB news because they'll only say what I want to hear about climate change and NZ. Politicians also exist in an echo-chamber and - if you'd have invested so much time and effort into getting elected it is comforting to produce glib support from the usual suspects and claim it is an outlier [Uxbridge] and unlikely to reproduce in a GE. In the same vein I am thinking the opposite. I got Brexit wrong. I was a remainer. Wrong in the sense that I called the referendum vote wrong and a GE is close to a referendum too.

It has been one-way for years and I believe that politicians make the same mistake that I made and exist in a bubble that reinforces their stance. Let's face it they really just want to get elected and whilst each blame the other for populism they are also taking the public (voters) for granted. Young people DO NOT talk about climate-change all the time and fear for the future. Older people are concerned about costs and if I'm confused gord knows what the average person understands. That is why we need to destroy their lies. They'll waffle but people know when a politician hasn't answered the subject or done a swerve. There's a good chance they've misread the public (voters) again on climate-change and fossil fuels.

Here's a good example of manipulation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001jkq0 A viral tweet feeding paranoia. Disingenuous and post the Carbon Brief 9X cheaper. It is wholesale and the consumer doesn't pay it. Conclusion - Total Rubbish. See how the Guardian reported it https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/11/uk-power-prices-hit-record-high-amid-cold-snap-and-lack-of-wind-power

*the BBC More or Less programme is about statistics and a bit of a backwater but is a myth-buster and trusted source.

Https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/25/petrostate-windfall-tax-oil-gas-climate-crisis-gordon-brown

The radio interview (LBC Nick Ferrari 00:42:00) left the listener believing that it was the Petrostates and Norway that made $4trillion. In the Guardian it is global export revenue but then gets confusing because he writes that levying a 3% windfall tax on O&G export revenues of the biggest-producing countries would yield about $25bn a year.

He does say on the radio a windfall by the Petrostates and Norway "made 4 trillion out of O&G last year and their windfall profits of 2.5 trillion was made by charging really high and exorbitant prices" - "extraordinary unthinkable profits"

Not a new 'Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse' but only the last one can lead to them - conquest, war, hunger, and death. Without fertilizer (Haber Bosch) which presently comes mainly from fossil fuels billions will die and that will incite war and conquest.

Fossil fuels have done a lot of good and without them life will be a lot more uncomfortable and impossible for many. If fossil fuels are killing the planet then they'll need replacing - not stopping (you can survive without crack, smoking and booze). That will take time. The UK isn't even the worst 'offender' but for some reason we have to be the leaders in ditching them. We apparently benefit from this virtue signaling and leading the world to a 'cleaner future'. All whilst India and China build more coal-fired power plants.

We must keep fighting the lies spread about the cost differentials and the "billions" being made by oil companies and the continual demand for a 'windfall tax'. It has got silly. Only this morning we heard Gordon Brown demanding the Petrostates - Middle East and Norway made $4 trillion of which was $2.5 trillion windfall profits should pay a windfall levy into a climate fund. That isn't a misspell - I listened again. It is $ trillions. He used "unthinkable" and "unprecedented" to describe the profits on LBC. That'll improve relationships with those countries. Elements of Labour has always hated the term 'profit' and it was notable that the largest producer, the US wasn't included and of course Russia. Truth is if we close the industry here we will need those countries product for many decades with absolutely no domestic security of supply.

I think some of it is his frustration that the ransom (EPL) paid by Shell and BP was so small and their larger profits were made away from the North Sea. At least it says a lot about his ambition and possibly his mental health. The interviewer never asked the obvious question and that was a breakdown or source for these 'unprecedented profits'.

*I quickly googled 2022 profits and his figures are nonsense.

Aramco $161bn, Qatar $43bn, Equinor $75bn and UAE's ADNOC $5bn.

I realise that these aren't complete but they are the major producers in their countries. I've left off Kuwait, Iraq and imagine Iran might have a short reply. I think this is an example of Labour's cunning philosophy. Maggie Thatcher said "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money". Well the cupboard's pretty bare in this country so why not spend other countries money? If they got away with this they'd be able to get their hands on more of Shell and BPs earnings.

*If he'd said $400bn and $250bn it wouldn't have been so shocking. I think the silly old sod got his decimal point in the wrong place. 9X, 10X wrong no longer matters. Just throw a number out there, nobody checks.

In current edition of Private Eye No. 1607

Under Energy and starting off with the recent unsuccessful subsidy auction of contract-for-difference for offshore wind.

"This isn't just a UK issue: it is acutely felt on both sides of the Atlantic. German and Spanish auctions flopped too; and Denmark's Orsted, one of the most respected companies in the windfarm sector, has seen its share price dented by cost-related setbacks in the US.

Before actively contested auctions were introduced, ministers were regularly taken for silly money by developers, who prefer to lobby bungs, rather than compete for them. But the lack of bids means this particular auction yielded no useful cost data on the UK offshore windfarms right now, and it would have been better if a mechanism had been devised to obtain accurate "price discovery" at the same time as keeping the lid on.

Advocates of renewable energy routinely make extravagant and misleading claims for how cheap it is: Labour's Ed Miliband recently said renewables are "nine times cheaper than gas" which, if it were true (it isn't), would mean no subsidy was required at all. So proper data points are badly needed.

In EYE 1595 we reported that the UN's climate committee declared spending on renewables must "immediately" triple. Now, it is saying it must increase as much as six-fold. Sounds plausible?"

Is a problem. They're a richer neighbour than us and we believe in keeping up with the Joneses (I just looked through the net curtains and they've changed their car, again!).

"No industrial nation with, perhaps, the exception of Norway can achieve or afford net-zero by 2050. Accept.

Those that make different claims have either no idea what it means to replace 14,500 TWh of annual primary energy use from fossil fuels (crude oil; natgas; coal) in Europe alone or are simply lying to you."

source - https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1704819999926362331

He's really hammering the point home on his twitter feed today including this:

"These are obviously fake stats.

Like the blob's claims that "wind is nine times cheaper than gas", which Ed Miliband also churned out, without giving them even the slightest sniff test."

I am not alone.

We have the Tory (10 days) and Labour (17 days) conferences in a matter of days. Little will be decided until then and I wonder if we'll see the 33rd round results or a follow up to the disastrous offshore wind auction before? Expect the usual volatility that comes from uncertainty but at least it is focusing attention on the damage done to the North Sea by EPL and the sprint to NZ . We aren't in the firing line at present. The damage has already being done.

The only good news is that the public is becoming immune to the promises of the green lobby - because that is all they are - promises, and expensive ones at that.

*I checked the HYN. The Bond market is a useful thermometer - no fever, tickety-boo.

Seriously though. Who takes over if they're bust? You can't just shutter up an oilfield like a branch of Wilko. Embarrassing for the government and the regulator. Do we know of anyone expanding in the NS under the EPL regime? No bidders for offshore wind auction and I'm not getting the feeling that the 33rd round will be celebratory. One bidder is exiting before the result (Waldorf).

AOK - we would have probably had first dibs and been all over them like a rash. We're involved with them like it or not.