Member Info for romaron

License to print money when the direction was downwards. Inflation, high interest rates, and supply chain woes are part of the real world. Personally I don't see that much difference with between the gifts and favouritism given to renewables as the PPE scandal other than the amounts are likely to be even bigger (PPE estimated loss £9bn).

If the O&G industry isn't enraged by now then they don't deserve to continue. Do they need even more ammunition?

I have given up on the Tories. They are clinging to an outside chance of winning the next election and are unlikely to tinker with the EPL. Votes are far more important. Labour have made more worrying threats and that is who we should be targeting. The renewable sector had a unique set of advantages that are slowly being dismantled. Their biggest was that EVERY political party paid obeisance at the altar of Net Zero. They [politicians] did this because they believed it is a vote winner. It is if you want juststopoil and Extinction Rebellion to vote for you.

The public really do want energy security at a fair price. It is being proven every day that the renewable sector cannot live up to its claims without subsidy so the public needs to realise that you either pay the true price or the renewable price plus a subsidy which makes the true cost higher than gas. Gas of course is essential to keep the lights on and will be for decades.

Intermittency is REAL and solutions are decades away whilst battery storage has its own pollution problems in production and decommissioning. Everybody needs to lobby their MP and better still if they're Labour or likely to be. If more individuals stand up to the pseudo-science and cranky theories that do not take cost into consideration.

I think I’ve finally got my head around the Government Auctions. As sources I’ll list them at the bottom the web pages I extracted the info from.

We’ll concentrate on the last auction, AR5, which was set at £44/MWh in 2012 prices so £60/MWh today. The Baseload Market Reference Price (BMRP) is important in CfD settlement and it is based on seasonal forward contracts reported by LEBA. The BRMP for this coming winter, October 2023 to March 2024, is £128.81/MWh. Most of this would have been known by participants and you would have to be foolhardy to commit to £60 when the real world is calling it double that although we have to accept that when we reach production of these fields nobody knows the actual BMRP they’ll be referenced to. It seems less rewarding to get the difference if you require a top up from the LCCC when the strike price is below the market price. There was a loophole whereby you could delay the start date on previous CfD auction wins and cop the difference whilst having the Cfd insurance on the other side. That was closed in AR5 with the use of “UCON”. The industry basically wants the BRMP to be below the CfD strike price as it is more favourable [I haven’t gone into the workings but obviously high prices benefit producers if they don’t have to share it with the LCCC]

As there was no take-up of offshore wind at the auction we know where they definitely expect to lose money. What they will accept must be known by government now. Wind-farm developers are unwilling to build without being underwritten by CfDs. The CfD is a hedge not a subsidy per se but if governments dreams came true and electricity became close to zero and under the strike prices they’d be subsidising the wind farms until CoP or companies go bust.

https://watt-logic.com/2023/09/26/cfd-ar5-auction-failure/

https://www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/news/baseload-market-reference-price-winter-2023-published/

https://www.linklaters.com/en/knowledge/publications/alerts-newsletters-and-guides/2023/march/31/contracts-for-difference-uk-government-releases-final-terms-of-cfd-ar5

Https://mailchi.mp/ae3f0dafb655/wind-industry-confirms-great-green-lie-199264?e=35cf3821be

"Deliver one hundred percent clean power by 2030."

Afraid it's true Frac. They can't do anything but achieve it. They're not going to be using coal, gas or oil. It won't be available across the country and will just fill a tiny percentage of the intermittent space. The use of the word "power" rather than "energy" is another give away. Of course it only applies to GB Energy and we don't know if they'll be competing with existing energy companies on a level playing field. That includes commercial wind and solar farms.

"Save £93 billion for UK households." - I don't see it happening but you can bet that they'll blame it on world events and that under the Tories the bills would have been even higher (roughly £93bn).

"cut energy bills for good" - we've seen no evidence despite the vaunted days of 100% renewables in electricity and world gas prices getting back to normal.

"create thousands of good local jobs" - what are they that aren't already coming from existing energy. Will it just be a transfer of my local Kosovans cleaning cars to cleaning solar panels?

"Deliver energy security" - how? They expect to solve intermittency. Develop storage, nuclear, hydrogen, CCS etc.. and fight off the Russians or Chines with electric drones?

"Make the UK energy independent" - a good idea. Make us like the US.

"Labour will build an energy system for the future, run for the British people" - like Norway. I agree but have serious misgivings about Ed Miliband being anywhere near the development. He is seriously out of his depth already.

Last post I assure you:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421518308504?via%3Dihub

In the intro you'll notice that the CfDs for wind have fallen from £150/MWh to £57.50/MWh. That is the 2017 auction and it already disguises that it is £57.50 at 2012 prices. So you could argue that instead of heading in a downward direction not only has there been a handbrake turn but prices are heading in the wrong direction. By the time real world numbers are used and the hidden layers added the only advantage of off-shore wind is that it is cleaner - but still unreliable.

I'm keeping my (new) gas boilers.

Hi Therapist - I saw that. I don't know why you don't all boil it down to a couple of points and ask IR. They'll give an answer on most things unless it is commercially sensitive but it seems pretty much common knowledge how Malaysia operates. My interest now is in getting the message out to as many people as I can at the cost of off-shore wind and the Ed Miliband school of arithmetic. It is a difficult subject and I keep thinking "now I've got it" and 5 minutes later the thought escapes me. I think Dieter Helm says it clearer. You are not comparing like-with-like which is how the politicians explain it on cost. It might be cheaper on a good day but then matinee tickets aren't for everyone. On a good sunny, windy day it can reach 100% renewables. Problem is they are also called 'weather ' and it is unreliable and intermittent and the wind drops and the light fades. You wouldn't buy anything you use every day and accept intermittency that could last for days or weeks. The answer is you like the cheapest but need insurance. There is another problem when the quote of the cheapest turns out to have hidden surprises and subsidies from governments. Renewables are unlikely to get a "windfall tax" but they could easily have their favourable status and subsidies removed. I'm sure my energy bills are telling me something that I'm missing.

A reply I got from a pretty reliable source a month ago had this to say: "The best way to do this would be to quote Aldersey-Williams et al. on offshore wind (Fig 2 - paper attached) and compare it to the current market price for electricity, which is a reasonable proxy for the levelised cost of gas fired power (see https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/en/Market-data1/GB/Auction-prices/UK/monthly/?view=table, but make sure to switch to GBP display!) It's roughly £125 vs £80, although gas would be cheaper if they could run flat out and were new (our gas fleet is old, as nobody wants to invest in machinery that only runs part time)."

There isn't actually that much up to date info on LCOE for off-shore wind and you'd be impressed by who I've asked. It tells me the industry is hiding the truth. Vattenfall and Ørsted are struggling with budgets whilst ESG seems to have lost its cachet.

At PM QT today I was almost sick when I saw Jeremy Hunt glow and preen when hydrogen was mentioned (another money-pit). I think he is a closet climate activist - he's certainly done more damage than juststopoil ever could.

(cont) sources "Renewables 100% - National average 33% - 38.7%" That is b*llks as we all know. I think the sleight of hand was in them ‘greenwashing’ with REGO certificates (c. £1.50 per customer, per annum). The true figure was more like 4%. No large scale electricity provider can offer 100% renewable electricity.

*I read somewhere that off-shore wind was around £80 per MWh which explains why September’s Auction for off-shore wind failed. Ed and Keir wouldn't be so stupid as to break that down to 1 kWh and get a price of 8.4p would they and compare this to the CCGT price which flies around in the same way that emergency plumbers charge more on Christmas Day for example. Cloudy windless days are another concern. I’m finding it difficult to get the LCOE of CCGT electricity in the UK, help required.. I found a price of $39.94 per MWh at 2021 prices here P.9 in the US. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf They have cheaper gas but I think you’ll find eventually that gas easily competes with renewables. Wind like water is free in nature but we still have water bills. I have a paper that helps with the LCOE of off-shore wind v. CCGT which hurts my brain. It comes from Aberdeen Business School and I don’t know how to get it from an email to here. It is from dry as dust academics and published by Elsevier. It dates back to 2019 but seems to be fairly recent in LCOE terms. A better source is from Prof. Sir Deiter Helm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBxJqhVYhKI listen from 11:40 when he says that it is “not at all clear that off-shore wind is cheaper than nuclear” and that’s before you allow for intermittency. Nuclear is better because it’s large scale and predictable. And finally this is probably the easiest to understand: https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/en/Market-data1/GB/Auction-prices/UK/monthly/?view=table Compare August 22 with Aug 2023. Pretending that off-shore wind will keep coming down has already proven a false premise. Nothing beats gas at present. I wonder how they’ll try to favour gas producers over oil producers. Both products are essential and the existing workforce in O&G are far too canny to give up well paid jobs for lower paid renewables. Older ones will just retire whilst the younger ones will go abroad. We’ll lose the skills – a bit like burning down a library.

The truth is out there - and it hurts

I have been doing my own investigations into something far more complex than the Malaysia Stevo/Tarmak postings. It makes their discussion look like a child's jigsaw. Yes, I'm talking Energy Bills.

Most here have them and I was with Bulb until they were taken over by Octopus. The bills crept up but got incredibly confusing, especially from Mar 2023-Jun 2023 (inc) when I was being given credits under the price guarantee. An example was my 19 March 2023 when my gas was £806.64 and it was reduced by £319.05 and my electric £392.46 reduced by £191.36

I got in a muddle just writing them down and thought I'd never get a real understanding as the highest bills were 19 Mar 2023 -30 June 2023 when the highest gas prices were Mar 2022 and Dec 2022. I hope you'll all agree that this is due to the way the bills are calculated. They price belatedly and you cannot know wholesale prices of gas until you get there. Much relates directly to the spot price of natural gas. It fits well with my bills as the Price Guarantees started in Feb 2023 and finished 30 June 2023. When you see it in black and white you can see how terrified the Government and Hunt were.

My despair increased in trying to work out what you're in at . Using my 19 Mar 2023 bill you have kWh used with a plus and a minus. A debit for Gas £806.64 (4966.4 kWh @ 16.24p) with a credit of £319.05 (4966.4 kWh @ 6.42p). Then I got my Eureka moment. The kWh @ 6.42p is what the Government are giving as a hand-out (our EPL money). It is the @16.24 that relates to real world prices that were in previous months. In fact we were being given price guarantee monies after the price of natural gas was pretty much back/closer to normal ($3 after peaking at $9.4 in Aug 2022*).

This makes it easier to kinda overlay the price of energy us (the public) were paying throughout the crisis and making the connection that the public have Next to Zero (like it?) chance of understanding!

These are my electric numbers in kWh (gas in brackets). Yours will be similar.

7 Feb 2022 - 7 Apr 2022 19.867p (3.862p)

7 Apr 2022 - 7 Oct 2022 27.847p (6.994p)

7 Oct 2022 - 19 Mar 2023 33.387p (9.818p)

19 Mar 2023 - 31 Mar 2023 65.3p (16.24p)

31 Mar 2023 - 30 June 2023 48.93p (11.90p)

30 June 2023 - 30 Sep 2023 29.26p (7.05p)

30 Sep 2023 - 18 Oct 2023 26.6p (6.46p)

I've ignored the standing charges. My reason to break it down like this is to rebuff the simplistic rubbish that Labour and the eco-evangelists are spouting regarding the shibboleth that renewables are multiples cheaper than fossil fuels. I was with Bulb until 6 Feb 2023 and every bill had on it under electricity sources "Renewables 100% -

But Zippy - you can apply that sentiment to just about everything the politicians are complicit in and feed to the public. When I attended the House of Lords on Monday I sat in a committee room hosted by Baroness Lea of Lymm. It was arranged by Net Zero Watch who are closely connected to the Global Warming Policy Foundation and both are based at the notorious 55, Tufton Street. Unfortunately it has associations with Leave Means leave, Brexit Central and the Taxpayer' Alliance and is hated by the Left. I was loathe to get involved with them but who else is listening to us? My problem is that I agree with what NZW stand for and the absolute senselessness of a precipitous rush to abandoning fossil fuels which will only exacerbate the so called "cost of living crisis" here and threatens society with those trying to enter Europe illegally. I know more about a cost of living crisis than most of those protesting in a comfortable and safe environment. We are lucky to live in this country and I don't see the juststopoil idiots or Uplift helping the millions of Africans whose desperation and real poverty end up with refugees risking their lives to escape. I want controlled immigration not open doors. The only real answer is to give them a reason to stay in Africa and help with bigger projects and not let climate activists dictate the agenda. Providing energy and clean water is a basis for life and many don't have it in Africa.

At the event I attended were several members of the HoL who left when the division bell rang. My immediate thought was that there were too many old white men when all the politicians care about are votes and yours and my vote might easily be cancelled out by a noisy, purple haired youth in an orange T-shirt.

The attendees had wide stretching experience and the questions were polite and well thought out. Many had spent careers in Africa and understood the infrastructure and problems. Geoff Hill has a farm and was one of the first to get solar panels. They lasted 6 weeks before they were stolen. Was he angry? No. He explained that with so much poverty around you have to understand that they may have been sold to make a shack or buy food for a family. He said the Russians are better at it than us. They stand over the African workers as they lay the gas pipes. He asked the Russian Ambassador (in Kenya I think) if it had a hint of 'colonial oppression' about it. The Ambassador replied that they were learning from the West. Our aid disappears amid corruption and hopeless do-gooder NGO's. They wanted to make sure the money went to the intended projects.

They can call it what they like but if they were more honest it would be better described as a FPN (Fixed Penalty Notice)

Https://mailchi.mp/ff62bb190274/70-of-africas-forest-is-gone-without-affordable-energy-it-will-vanish-199228?e=35cf3821be

I was at this event yesterday evening. Geoff Hill who knows many of the politicians and ambassadors in Africa declared that there "is no interest in climate change in Africa". There is no shortage of water in much of Africa but they struggle to find electricity to pump it.

The West won't provide what is needed. They have plenty of coal but if it is mentioned it the lenders or development agencies throw an ESG wobbly and it dies. I didn't know that it gets cloudy for many months in South Africa and the wind isn't as good as ours; especially around the equator (doldrums). There is a solution for Africa. Give these resourceful people the tools and their entrepreneurial spirit will do the rest. Africa is good at education.

Geoff Hill gave an amusing anecdote - An American with the 'can do' attitude said give them 2 acres each and they can produce pumpkins. The African statesman replied "is that the ambition for your children?"

With ineffectual western governments repeating mistakes and listening to climate lobbyists it looks like much of Africa will remain trapped with 70 per cent unemployment and no welfare. If I was a young African I'd emigrate - illegally if need be.

He also said that the money Africa requires to achieve Net Zero or move away from charcoal and deforestation is much more than the West have offered and the West can't even afford what it has offered.

Easy for you to say ukbb.

Befuddled, Barnet.

Clarification: when I said there are only two of us oil and gas producers in Europe I should have added "that count". She made it sound as though we were still a massive basin.

Notes:

Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

Alok Sharma 13 Feb 20 – 8 Jan 21 -Boris

8 January 2021 - 6 September 2022 -Boris

Kwasi Kwarteng – Liz Truss

Then Jacob Rees-Mogg 6 Sep – 25 Oct Liz truss

Grant Shapps 25 Oct 22- 7 Feb 23 Rishi Sunak

Later became Dept for Energy for Energy security and Net Zero

Shapps 7 Feb 23 – 31 Aug 23

Scrutinised by Energy Security and Net Zero Select Committee since April 2023.

Claire Coutinho appointed Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero on 31 August 2023.

A frigging mess. We can only hope that Claire Coutinho is an improvement.

I know you shouldn't play the man (or woman) in debate but it is so hard when TK is involved because she started it. Making a straw man of those of us who appreciate the benefits that fossil fuels brought civilisation. Her use of renewables 4X cheaper is a perfect example. At times they are cheaper but they are intermittent and have capital and grid costs. If this was true how do you explain the failure of the latest off-shore wind auction? Wind is likely to prove more expensive than gas in the longer run imo. She blithely states that we are the second largest oil and gas producer in Europe. There's only two of us so you could equally say we are the trailing producer (last) in Europe.

I listened again to the 20 July 2022 Environmental Audit Committee (I am sad) and as usual stuff comes up that you missed last time round. The three producers present (Harbour, Shell, BP) are a minority in the NS with HBR being the biggest (was 15%). TK stated that there were at that time 42 active operators in the NS with only 11 investing in renewables And of those 11 a third were to enhance their fossil production. She did help me with a definition though. She stated that the IEA describe energy security as "uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price". Well renewables struggle to achieve that even after the 20 years of subsidies they have sucked out of the system.

Back to playing the man. She is of Bangladeshi heritage and grew up in Australia. She says that she has deep personal connections with both countries who are two of the most vulnerable countries in the world in terms of the impacts of climate change. So why is she based here? She travels pretty regularly to Australia but I don't know her mode of transport. Perhaps she shares the paddling with Caroline Lucas when she visits her son in the US? Her economic illiteracy is clear and she doesn't understand demand.

Another thing I missed was that there was supposed to be a second panel but the Secretary of State couldn't make it. I took some notes and I'll post them after this.

This is a masterclass: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Kathryn+porter+iea

"Is our energy market working?"

Her interview with Nigel Farage unfortunately links her with right wing Brexiteer thinking so even if she is correct it will be dismissed by many as an ideological propaganda. That is the problem - the argument pigeon-holes you and you are either a right wing, greedy profiteer who wants to kill babies or a saintly, vegan animal lover who just wants people to love each other and get energy from nature's bounty of sun and wind.

The industry needs to get her message out and it is the best exposé I've seen and is a year old yet still as fresh and true as when filmed. It is concerning that it hasn't reached politicians and predates Ed Miliband's famous 9X quote. Either Ed Miliband is a simpleton or he is guilty of wilful misrepresentation, probably both.

The public should be made aware but I'm afraid they'll need to be forced. Higher prices will force them to pay attention - they're unavoidable.

One thing I did learn from this video that it helps answer the question of what is "energy security". That is the generic term when most of the time people mean "security of supply" which is almost always about electricity anyway. By trying to simplify the message to the public it has conflated many different aspects into one that totally confuses the layman or woman.

We're getting there.

This is more in response to the Dumbly post 9:38 and the numbers of employees at Uplift. I took a slightly different approach

I used LinkedIn for a quick point of reference on the basis that most people their age need a job and LinkedIn is a good way of showing off your CV with a hint of "always open to a better offer". Some of the results of my cursory research.

None of them have ever held a job outside campaigning, govt, .org or climate activism.

I've got the numbers down to 14 for those regularly employed by Uplift.

The steering committee are volunteers imo with McGibbon and van der Burg both working for Oil Change Intl.

Some of those working have on LinkedIn terms like; remote(CEO), part-time (Morris), hybrid (Bola).

The rest are either 'consultants', students, contractors, self-employed or canine.

I'm not sure if Rowden and Waters work for Uplift or Warm this Winter. Kinda murky.

You get the drift. As organised as juststopoil with the same disregard for facts, economics and the law. Their numbers are far fewer than we are led to believe by the media and this is one area they excel in. Tessa Khan is on speed dial for lazy producers or hacks looking for a quote or an appearance. I don't think they even have premises.

Anybody in the mood for a whip round?

"Wind farm builders push UK for tax breaks amid surging costs. SSE Plc and Centrica Plc are among the builders asking the Treasury to offer larger capital allowances on their investments — essentially a form of tax relief to ease their upfront costs. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is due to set out fiscal plans for the nation in next month’s Autumn Statement. Centrica’s UK general counsel, Raj Roy, said help also could be offered by easing the government’s Electricity Generator Levy, known as the windfall tax. They spoke at trade body Energy UK’s annual conference in London." _ source Energy Voice

November will be interesting.

She is a professional activist. Never had a proper job and works in .org , NGO and nonprofit groups that use evangelical phrases not that different from religious chants. I wonder what her salary is? I'm guessing she's Australian because that's where she seemed to be educated in her LinkedIn bio. We allow people like her and Greta Thunberg to disrupt the everyday business of the British public. I wonder how many of us have such a high profile doing the same in Australia and Sweden. I'd go further and suggest that Australia with its coal production needs her more than we do.

The fact that she is on our screens so much and asked for comment in the inky sphere is because she is always available. I doubt she's expensive either. Probably happy to forgo an appearance fee and just claim expenses. Her reward comes from the salary/s she gets from 'nonprofit' because profit is a satanic word and separates the godly from the heathens who stubbornly use fossil fuels to enhance their life.

On her Linkedin bio she advertised in August for a media/PR freelancer for COP28. It was/is short-term (4 months) and goes to show the shoe-string economics of these outfits. They are basically scroungers existing on donations. More fool those who donate. She consistently either lies or is just not that bright when it comes to understanding the oil and gas industry. It is a supine media that keeps them alive because of the need for "balance". The pool of those who'd turn up for the opening of an envelope is not that large which is why we get Roger Hallam, Phoebe Plummer, Dale Vince, Ed Miliband, Caroline Lucas etc.. so regularly; always available for a predictable quote.

Their bubble has been burst imo with events in Gaza. Perhaps the media should make a stock question when interviewing them and ask - "what do you understand the term 'energy security' to mean?"