Member Info for romaron

Is the elephant in the room the EPL?

Britain will become “subservient to foreign regimes” if it allows the North Sea to decline further, the Energy Secretary has warned, raising concerns that production will fall faster than demand without new drilling.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/10/18/north-sea-oil-dependent-foreign-regimes-energy-secretary/

Doesn't she [Clare Couthino] talk to Jeremy Hunt or the PM? Then again "Energy Security" means something totally different to the Labour Party.

I can't believe that she is blaming Labour threats for the situation. I wonder how or if Labour will respond.

Silence surrounds the results of the 33rd Round.

*tip for Claire Couthino - the draconian windfall tax might have speeded up the decline - worth investigating.

As one at a time the claims of climate activists are being challenged because they aren't living up to promises isn't it time to concentrate on attacking Labour and the fantastical claims made by them. Being in opposition actually gives them a freedom to hide behind a screen of "we weren't being shown the figures or the government (who had the figures) misled us; totally ignoring the fact that the O&G industry was educating and warning them at the same time. Are Labour saying they don't have any 'experts' in the field and have to rely on Greta Thunberg and Dale Vince. I have written off the Tories as being of any assistance as EPL lands on the doorstep of nos. 10 and 11. Both went for it.

If Labour sense a trap I expect some quite serious backpedalling. Red Ed is already towards the end of the queue of Ministers when they line up. He bears the stigmata for allowing Keir Starmer to humiliate himself in January, twice, at Davos and with his New year speech in East London, stating the 9X cheaper shibboleth (strangely missing in current speeches - did physics or the science change?).

Opportunism always works for politicians. Won't it be marvelous if both parties now look for a way to distance themselves from the cost of renewables that make HS2 overspend look like a 'rounding error' by comparison.

I think you nailed it there AOK - we were/are in such deep caca that expediency and desperation was their cunning ploy. Just pick an industry having a rough time in the media on the latest climate threat. I love it when they say "scientists forecast". It isn't all scientists and when have they and governments ever got the future right? They are guessing as we are.

Calling it a windfall tax and then cementing it in for 4 years is hardly disguised. They don't hate O&G it is just that we're the easiest to bully with approval from a very small but noisy group of eco-zealots. We can all name 10 of them but the public have no idea of those promoting and explaining the need for this essential product that enables us to enjoy life at the standard our forbears could only dream of.

I wonder if the government is prepared to sacrifice the O&G industry as they stare into the abyss and ask the proponents of renewables as to why they cannot exist without subsidies and higher prices? I think they'll rate being elected higher than any action to reduce windfall tax. Politicians aren't known for their bravery or understanding of complex industries. Without a relaxation of the draconian tax imposed on the NS ther'll only be decline in the NS until we reach a point where the industry joins the coal-mining industry.

The government should dismiss the prospect of using hydrogen for home heating to enable an "exclusive focus" on electrification, its infrastructure advisor has recommended. The National Infrastructure Commission also called for the creation of a strategic energy reserve under the control of ministers and the introduction of compulsory water metering in it latest five-yearly National Infrastructure Assessment. Source Utility Week.

Does that mean the £30 odd million spent in Fife, Scotland was spunked away or does proving 'pipe dreams' (couldn't resist) don't work in the real world mean that the eco-zealots and Ed will now gracefully accept defeat? Still, it wasn't real money. Grants and subsidies don't count. There is a magic money-tree that never stops producing. Some say it is fertilized by EPL.

To our friends in Sweden. It doesn't work that way. You sending money into the UK to keep Greta Thunberg imprisoned and prevented from returning to Sweden is actually illegal here.

*noted that the representatives of Gunvor and Trafigura used the demonstration as an excuse not to attend. I wonder if Shell and BP trading attended? Scared they might be asked to pay EPL too?

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/climate-activist-greta-thunberg-detained-by-police-london-witness-2023-10-17/

6 October to CEO NSTA by letter - Dear Stuart,

I am a long term retail investor in the North Sea. I accept the need for a transition to Net Zero but frankly expect it to be a glide more than a full stop. There appears to be an unfair bias towards renewables against any new oil or gas field with ever more inventive hurdles and delays seemingly introduced, especially the EPL which totally missed its target by undermining the small and medium sized companies whilst the super-majors suffered a mere pinprick to their figures – Shell and BP for instance have minimal investment in the North Sea and are exiting the basin with haste.

The CEO of Serica said recently (19 September) that they were told that the “results of the 33rd Licensing Round would be announced by the end of September but he isn’t holding his breath.”

If the results of the 33rd Round are as disappointing as the recent off-shore wind auction then it appears that it is all over for the North Sea’s future as regards fossil fuels. You have a responsibility to the wider public too and I’d like to know if there is an industry appetite to be part the march to Net Zero or will we be importing all our oil and ever more gas from overseas with the unavoidable increase in emissions.

When will the results be announced?

Received today by email -

Thank you for your letter of 6 October to Stuart Payne, NSTA Chief Executive, referring to oil and gas

licensing and seeking an update on the 33rd Offshore Round.

We note your comments, and obviously cannot comment on Government policy matters (including

the EPL), but would point out that the UK’s offshore and onshore energy resources are being

developed by a wide range of companies spanning different sectors.

Upon launch of the 33rd Round, the NSTA invited applications for licences to explore and potentially

develop 898 blocks and part-blocks in the North Sea.

The round is the latest element in the NSTA’s ongoing work with industry to ensure security of

supply. NSTA also asked leading operators to supply details of their production and investment plans

and to look at how they might go further and faster wherever possible.

The details of when the licences will be awarded have not been finalised yet, but we do expect it to

be during this autumn.

NSTA Correspondence

"Expect it to be this Autumn" A waste of their time and mine. A faint chance we'll know by the end of November.

Omission - doing something similar -

I did think of writing "Greta and Extinction Rebellion support Israel" but thought it might be a little provocative. A terrified mother with young children or sick parents in Gaza doesn't have the option. It isn't fossil fuels killing them in Gaza.

"334mm boe of potential resources discovered in past three years" - that includes 3P reserves which are inferred and only possible NOT probable reserves. Evidence of a basin in decline. Tiny amount in the scheme of things.

"NSTA wants to see speedy upturn in-fill and new well drilling" Er-do they think that's possible with EPL wiping out the possibility of a profit by putting all the risk onto the developer?

"Well intervention rates must rise to boost production" - prize for stating the bleedin' obvious.

"NSTA wants to see operators meet promised project plans" - Why? The government just moved the goal posts and it seems you enthusiastically joined in.

Protestors blocking the entrance to the London InterContinental trying to stop the oil industry's Energy Intelligence Forum meeting today. They want to blockade oil and gas which is essential and underpins the unreliable electricity they rely on. Israel is currently actually doing something blockading Gaza. Perhaps Greta should head over there but I imagine it is a little to hot for her and her acolytes.

*KO - no mention of the 33rd Round in the Wells Report.

Last month Sunak said: “I think the UK should focus on the North Sea because we’re going to take every last drop. I mean, we need oil and gas for decades to come.

So yes, I would much rather have that from home because it’s better for our energy security.”

That phrase again. He clearly doesn't understand it so why do they keep using it? The UKCS will be finished long before 2050 at the rate of decline we are seeing and with no NEW fields or exploration that is nailed on. I wonder when the results of the 33rd round will be announced?

*I suppose this is irrelevant re: our 2 aircraft carriers.

Nuclear propulsion was rejected due to its high cost and manpower required in favour of Integrated Electric Propulsion consisting of two Rolls-Royce Marine Trent MT30 36 MW (48,000 hp) gas turbine generator units and four Wärtsilä diesel generator sets (two 9 MW or 12,000 hp and two 11 MW or 15,000 hp).

That's more energy than Enfield homes use a year. Could be a tad embarrassing if they're moth-balled due to no fuel (or being painted orange).

Hi ukbbb - your post reminded me to check mcdan.com price forecasts. They've just published the figures to October 1. They have the last 3 months Brent @ $94.50

It is a useful reference tool. The future remains unknown but they're better at guessing than us.

Stevo is correct. I doubt he's talking his book because he knows it is ineffective. I wrote to IR to get clarity on the fact that we are paying in excess of the headline rate of 85% effectively. This is the reply:

"the non-deductibility of decommissioning and interest costs from EPL means that the marginal tax rate is higher than the headline 35% for most, including EnQuest. In addition, as you note below, it is likely that full CT/SCT tax payers are paying in excess of 80-85% tax in the UK and it is this reality which is driving some of our peers to reduce investment in the UKCS and others to depart the basin altogether."

If you haven't realised how serious this is now I hope you all take note. Using what I have written start writing to all and sundry - legislators especially. If you're Labour - threaten to vote Lib-Dem, Tory or not at all. If you're Tory the same. The majority of politicians value being elected above all else.

With what is happening in the Middle East we should be rewarded and nurtured. Instead we are hounded and demonised whilst our ability to make a profit is penalised. EPL is in effect a fine for extracting fossil fuels in the North Sea, nothing less. A floating ULEZ charge. For an Industry that is essential and has been struggling to make a profit for most of the last decade. It is on a path to extinction - and there is no rebellion from shareholders.

It explains why AB repeats so often the importance of reducing debt. If it wasn't for our tax credits we'd have been finished some time ago. It really is that serious. Jeremy Hunt and Sunak should face an enquiry.

It is time to ratchet up our resistance to this insane fanaticism that is "renewables". They are cleaner but NOT cheaper and I don't believe the electorate are going to vote for higher energy prices and less security. It is time for the truth and facts to come out. Start writing. FOIs are simple and every public body has to comply. Start today.

I can confirm that imo the Sheriff's assessment is accurate. I can't be bothered to go back but I remember what I wrote after the JSO meeting I attended on February 14 (is there a quick way to go back on LSE?). They were all a bit odd and I expressed my sympathy for the anarchist (bald head, pony tail) who refused to have a capitalist bank account or credit card but was on the scrounge for cash to get to Chelmsford where he was facing charges for the Navigator protest. He was a gentle soul and not very bright but felt part of a family. At the Intelligence2 event I attended "Is climate activism working" there was a poor turn-out with people in the cheap seats being asked to move to the front to make it appear there was a decent attendance. The whooping and cheering when Phoebe Plummer spoke suggested she had a disproportionate number of supporters attending. I suspected complimentary tickets. WTF was Ben Okri there other than he had a new book of poems to promote and then the sinister condescending narcissist Dr. Rupert Read (look everybody, I've got a PhD).

I wrote that if I was the parent of Phoebe Plummer I'd be worried as she comes over as very sincere but fragile. It is people like Read, Hallam and Dale that are professional agitators - I believe that most jso are honest but easily manipulated by pseudo-science with a lack of real world experience - they believe in the 9X mantra.

Finally, Uplift and Tessa Khan. Some of you are better at it than me but do they have an office? I looked for a contact address and can't find one. I suspect it is a loose collection of mainly academics and charity/NGO workers probably held together by Zoom meetings. The media looks for balance when presenting arguments and Tessa Khan is always available. Linda Cook came second to her at the Environmental Audit. LC wasn't ready for the dirty tactics or unimportance of facts. I'd love to see the O&G industry take the gloves off but events are moving in our favour anyway. I just hope that they have a plan.

I don't have a problem with the CCC monitoring/auditing the progress towards NZ but if their claims are fraudulent then they need to be held to account. We do after all pay their wages/expenses. I reluctantly accept their bias towards climate campaigners on the committee e.g. Baroness Brown - Chair of the Adaption Committee (whatever that is) being a NED of Ørsted but do worry about the balance on the other side. OEUK are dismissed as a trade body of the obscene price gouging oil profiteers whilst NSTA's main job seems to be to increase hurdles thwarting any growth in the North Sea.

Have we any champions?

*Waldorf have given up. I doubt there is much competition for their portfolio and expect us to take over their share of Kraken - making us 100% owners.

Https://mailchi.mp/bef8f8e71a8a/net-zero-watch-calls-for-a-clear-out-at-climate-change-committee-199168?e=35cf3821be

MER - I'd forgotten that. The reviews and ongoing discussions must be alarming the politicians now. Labour are protected for now because they're in opposition. Do they worry if they win the GE? Jeremy Hunt has caused more damage than juststopoil ever could. There isn't a healthy industry to hand over. Forget us having oil in 2050. It'll be gone to all intents and purposes by 2035 if the present path continues. Labour want to build homes. Try doing that without fossil fuels. Perhaps the industry should show how much revenue either government can raise. Not a problem really - there's always imports and a saving on emissions.

The whole climate activism has gone too far too fast. I don't think the public have signed up to a lower standard of living, and cleaner but much, much, more expensive energy that isn't reliable (intermittency). Energy security no longer includes being able to protect and defend ourselves against hostile actors from abroad. Surely the military are as alarmed as us?

Do employees of NSTA wear orange T-shirts?

This is the best place to find answers:

From their website -

Should you wish to submit a Freedom of Information or Environmental Information Regulations request to the NSTA, please send it by email to: foirequests@nstauthority.co.uk.

A.ka.a as NSTA. Headline in Energy Voice today "New NSTA electrification plans matter of 'huge concern' for operators'

For once not hyperbole. This was of concern to EnQuest and Craig Baxter said that the NSTA had moved the goalposts.

-The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) is currently consulting with the sector on new plans to drive upstream emissions reduction, after it voiced “concerns targets will be missed without further action.”

The draft “OGA Plan” sets out new requirements for various aspects of upstream operations across four main areas: platform electrification and low carbon power; inventory; investment and efficiency; and flaring and venting.

These include a seemingly tougher stance and more explicit expectations around the first two areas.

The substance of the consultation document makes clear a proposed requirement that: “New developments with a first oil or gas date after 1 January 2030 must be fully electrified. For tie-back developments that will mean only tying back to fully electrified hosts.”

Meanwhile, new developments with a first oil or gas date before 1 January 2030 should “generally at a minimum come online electrification ready.”

It marks an apparent escalation in expectations from the regulator, which earlier this year said it would require eight assets to be fully electrified by 2030 to meet its “central case” scenario on emissions reduction.

Drilling 'no longer viable' in places. Perhaps somebody should tell Halima Begum.

Doesn't it make you despair. Halima Begum professional NGO following aid work with government. Now CEO of some obscure charity. Discussion of housing - she said her friend Keir needs to be bold with his policies and added a rhetorical question of where is the money coming from - "I'll tell you where - it can actually come from the excess profits that a lot of oil and gas companies are making" (38:20) and repeated at the end (54:30) again on funding "maybe from some kind of shake up of the oil companies".

What world do these people live in? ONS July 2023 "Imports from non-EU countries increased by £0.3 billion (1.4%) in July 2023. Imports of fuels rose by £0.6 billion, the result of increased imports of crude oil and gas from Norway. "

They'd better be quick. They're already scraping the barrel.

Forget I mentioned it. I'll leave it to you traders. I have better things to do.