Member Info for RogueRiver

The HL article sums up the situation very well. I think further share dilution is probably on the cards, which the market seems to be pricing in already.

Shorts still closing - now down to 3.89%. Invesco have increased their holding of Capita shares from 11.14% to 12%, while Norges Bank (the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund) continue to hold 3.12%.

The information vacuum is always frustrating in these situations. People are crying out for reassurance and none is forthcoming. The problem is that, if management were to issue an optimistic RNS and, god forbid, it all went pear shaped in a few weeks time, PIs would be the first to say they had been duped by false reassurances from the board. I suspect they've said all they are going to say for now. The next RNS will be very good news or very bad news - or maybe just another "We're still working on it".

chilting
You may be right, but the presidential election is 14 months away - and the most closely watched US Treasury-market recession indicator, the yield curve, is sounding its loudest recession warning since 2007. If Trump allows the US to slip into recession in the next few months, the worst effects could be hitting the US in the run-up to the election.

US stocks are faltering - and we know Trump is very sensitive to falling stock prices. Perhaps his recent trade war talk is all bluster, before reality sinks in and he does a deal with the Chinese. The strong economy is pretty much the only positive he has going for him at the moment, so the last thing he needs is a recession heading into election year.

Day traders will be selling. Brace yourselves.

Certainly, don't panic - but do consider setting a stop loss. Think of it as an insurance policy, should the worst happen.

Shorts now down to 3.9%. Clearly the market has a good idea which way the SP is heading.

Given some of the invective around here it is at least pretty benign, Bob. Anyone who is an investor (including me) has probably found themself in a similar position. There but for the grace of god...

I doubt anyone is laughing at this, unless they are a complete sadist (or a shorter). My only thought when I saw the SP today was "$h*t, I'm so glad I didn't invest". I hope everyone is okay.

Sorry, I mean PIP assessments.

Tragic, but blame the government - it is their policies and criteria that Capita are implementing, ultimately at the behest of a large section of the electorate, who have viewed the benefits system as being widely abused in the past. Do you imagine the government have instructed Capita to err on the side of the claimant when making PPI assessments? No, me neither.

Easy to see why people are selling. Better to walk away with half your money than with nowt.

Another good day, all things considered. Shorts are now down to 4.6%, from 5.1% late last week.

Given today's mini crash in the market, the SP held up remarkably well. I'm hanging on to mine. Knowing my luck, if I were to sell, they would soar, never to return to their previous average. Shorts are already slightly down and I think we will see more closing in the weeks ahead. As we get nearer to the end of the year, I think the 120-130s will be a thing of the past and we will see a new resilience in the SP.

As shown in the H1 report, 77% of Capita shares are currently held by institutional investors. I think they will be adding a few more before the year is out.

Crikey. I was expecting a modest uptick, if the H1 results were in line with the forecast, but nothing like this. The CEO intimated there may be a divi on the horizon (2020?). I think this will help to suppress the helter skelter nature of the SP. Meantime, the SP has clearly been woefully undervalued in the last few months and is now starting to reflect the company's successful recovery plan - and the broker forecasts. If all continues on track I think we could see 150-180p by the end of H2.

Hear that? That's the sound of 5.1% of shorts closing.

I don't think anyone expects the special divi to go on forever, but if you've been smart enough reinvest it, your shareholding will have multiplied substantially by the time it ends. The standard divi is unlikely to fall dramatically in the long-term. If we were talking about the retail property sector, I'd be quite worried. As it is (notwithstanding the usual cyclical changes) the strong demand for housing is unlikely to wane for decades. It's hard to think of a better prospect for long-term investment than a house builder. Meanwhile, just let these silly knee-jerk market reactions go over your head.

Not too worried about the depressed SP, as my share reinvestment doesn't kick in until next month and the cheaper they are, the better. In fact, given that this is a long-term investment for me, I'm happy for the SP to bump along like this for the foreseeable future. With the excellent dividends and the demand for UK housing stock likely to remain strong for decades to come, this share is an accumulating rollover that will almost certainly hit the jackpot in the long-term.