Member Info for RogueRiver

Chriskies

The future prospects of the company are integral to the success of the bond sale - which is clearly the point I was making.

Perhaps you should take a little more time to read what people have actually written, before reacting. It's not the first time you have engaged in this sort of unnecessary nit picking.

Won't they get y-o-y yield (and at a very generous percentage) if the project is funded to production and beyond?

A lot of commentary has focused on the fact that the bonds are being offered in a company with no income and how this might be off-putting to potential investors. But surely the yield of the bonds, together with the prospect of releasing the $2.5billion JPM facility, is a very positive driver for potential bond buyers, given that this will enable the company to proceed to production and income generation. Yes, there are risks for investors, but the future rewards are very enticing.

Glad to have got out with a 30% loss. The Argentinian election result was the last straw for a share already drowning in a sea of negativity (albeit briefly buoyed up by a Daily Mail life belt). Good luck if you're still holding (the question is, why?).

£19M (off-book) buy reported at 16:28 today. It seems someone is very confident of a rise.

Love my Weetabix (or at least the Tesco generic). Let's hope the wheat therein will be POLY4-grown before too long.

3.9M uncrossing trade - disregard.

Let's just hope the fireworks won't be the result of the factory going up. I'm still very wary of the bonds getting sold - but with share-diluting strings attached.

"(Alliance News) - Capita PLC on Tuesday said RWC Asset Management LLP upped its stake in the outsourcing company to 11.20% from 5.01%.

Following the purchase, RWC owns 186.6 million Capita shares, of the 1.67 billion outstanding shares in the company.

Capita shares on Tuesday closed 2.6% higher in London at 124.75 pence each."

Institutional investors now own 86% of Capita, which appears to be a resounding endorsement of the company's ongoing turnaround. Shorts are down to 3.7%.

If the bond sale goes successfully, I can see the SP getting back to 15p in the short-term and perhaps 18-20p in the next year. I suspect the average paid by most PIs is around 20p, so I think there will be quite a bit of relief selling at that price by those who have had enough.

Not so much pessimism as realism. We can argue semantics all day. The fact is, the bonds didn't sell the first time round, hence we are at 10.5p.

I posted an example (below) of a company which, like SM, failed to sell its high-yield bonds the first time round, only to sell them one month later - but apparently some 'optimists' here don't like that either. It seems that anything short of maniacal zeal is frowned upon by some people here.

Chriskies

The Fortescue example is far from irrelevant. It is a perfect example of how a faltering bond sale came good.

Government continues, even when parliament is not sitting.

Yes, I'm probably being a bit bearish at 50:50. When it comes to bond sales, I think the following example is very encouraging.

17 March 2015:
"Fortescue Scraps $2.5 Billion Bond Sale

Fortescue Metals Group scrapped a planned $2.5 billion bond sale, a surprise move that highlights investor jitters toward iron-ore exporters."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fortescue-scraps-2-5-billion-bond-sale-1426638777

23 April 2015:
"Fortescue raises $2.3bn to refinance debt

Australian iron ore producer Fortescue Metals Group has sold $2.3bn in junk bonds, less than a month after scrapping a similar fundraising and debt refinancing effort amid a decline in commodity prices."
https://www.ft.com/content/97e22f22-e964-11e4-a71a-00144feab7de

Of course, some will argue that comparisons between Fortescue and Sirius are not valid. There are many differences. The most compelling similarity, however, is that a company which could not sell its high-yield bonds at the first attempt managed to do so one month later.

Today, Fortescue is close to investment-grade with a A$23.65bn market cap.

It would have to be a big rabbit. At the moment there is probably a 50:50 chance Sirius will get its bonds sold. If it doesn't, there are other financing options, but they will probably dilute the share price.

The macroeconomic outlook does not seem to be as doom-laden as it was last week. If things tick along like this into next month and central banks signal some stimulus may be on its way (and the Fed hints at a rate cut), the SM bond sale will probably go through.

Dunno, there were some pretty chunky buys going in this morning:

09:18 - 20/08 Buy 534045 9.36p £49,999.96
11:19 - 20/08 Buy 519357 9.33p £48,447.70
09:08 - 20/08 Buy 257397 9.32p £23,999.95
09:27 - 20/08 Buy 212723 9.35p £19,889.60
09:30 - 20/08 Buy 212637 9.35p £19,881.56

The bond sale is still uncertain, but I think the following example is very encouraging.

17 March 2015:
"Fortescue Scraps $2.5 Billion Bond Sale

Fortescue Metals Group scrapped a planned $2.5 billion bond sale, a surprise move that highlights investor jitters toward iron-ore exporters."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fortescue-scraps-2-5-billion-bond-sale-1426638777

23 April 2015:
"Fortescue raises $2.3bn to refinance debt

Australian iron ore producer Fortescue Metals Group has sold $2.3bn in junk bonds, less than a month after scrapping a similar fundraising and debt refinancing effort amid a decline in commodity prices."
https://www.ft.com/content/97e22f22-e964-11e4-a71a-00144feab7de

Of course, some will argue that comparisons between Fortescue and Sirius are not valid. There are many differences. The most compelling similarity, however, is that a company which could not sell its high-yield bonds at the first attempt managed to do so one month later.

Today, Fortescue is close to investment-grade with a A$23.5bn market cap.

17 March 2015:
"Fortescue Scraps $2.5 Billion Bond Sale

Fortescue Metals Group scrapped a planned $2.5 billion bond sale, a surprise move that highlights investor jitters toward iron-ore exporters."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fortescue-scraps-2-5-billion-bond-sale-1426638777

23 April 2015:
"Fortescue raises $2.3bn to refinance debt

Australian iron ore producer Fortescue Metals Group has sold $2.3bn in junk bonds, less than a month after scrapping a similar fundraising and debt refinancing effort amid a decline in commodity prices."
https://www.ft.com/content/97e22f22-e964-11e4-a71a-00144feab7de

Of course, some will argue that comparisons between Fortescue and Sirius are not valid. There are many differences. The most compelling similarity, however, is that a company which could not sell its high-yield bonds at the first attempt managed to do so one month later.

Today, Fortescue is close to investment-grade with a A$23.5bn market cap.

This, from the FT article of 06/08/19:

"One high-yield bond fund manager said that while the deal should probably have included equity warrants, offering additional upside to bond investors, he thought it could still be done in a stronger market.

“Fortescue had all the same issues when Citi launched their first [bond] deal,” he said. “It is now close to investment-grade with a A$22bn market cap.”"

https://www.ft.com/content/1911b0e6-b813-11e9-8a88-aa6628ac896c