Member Info for RogueRiver

It does look as though the macroeconomic panic is beginning to ease somewhat. Hopefully that trend will continue into next month. Trump now has one eye on re-election and he doesn't want to go into election year with the US descending into recession.

I could probably get that next week, but no thanks.

Shorts in Debenhams were running at 10.5% a month before they went into admin. Shorts in Kier are currently at 12%.

At 5.8%, shorts in SM are far from indicative of a share about to go under.

The macroeconomic outlook and, more specifically, its effect on high-yield bonds (i.e. the ones SM are trying to sell) would appear to be the most important factor for this share at present. Is there an index showing daily/weekly high-yield bond trends?

"Ignore please".

If only...

"For example, an investor holds some shares, but he believes that the recent macroeconomic trends will push the stock price down in the short term while substantially appreciating in the long term."

Could this example describe Citi's current position?

Careful what you wish for. Don't want an II telling us they've dropped their holding below 3%.

Seems to be happy sitting around 9p. I'll settle for that pending further news.

It might be useful if we had two separate BBs - one for the $h*ts and giggles cohort and another for serious (even ostensibly serious) discussion.

s

I was just wondering if the big institutions get wind of these things before the RNS goes out.

So, presumably we won't know the shorts reaction (if any) to today's Citi RNS for a couple of day.

Did shorts go up before or after the market would have had knowledge of the Citi news? Or is not possible to establish that?

ogm4
If you're referring to the £170k trade at 1635, that's just UT.

Sounds plausible. But then, it could just be a very plausible ramper. Who knows?

Oh I do keep up Chesh. You're looking at a new SM shareholder ;)

Citi were not holding any according to the last ownership stats. 5% is a huge chunk.

I'm not really a fan of greater devolution. It sucks up public money and creates yet another layer of talking shop. The last time Yorkshire was asked if it wanted its own assembly, it replied with a big fat "no". The south will always be 'more important' because that is where the capital is. Like it or not, UK politics and economics tend to be London-centric.

I think all shares are going to take a hammering tomorrow and beyond - SM being no exception.

I think the best short-term hope is that, in the next few weeks, the US stock market continues on a serious downward spiral . We know the stock market is something to which Trump is very sensitive. Given that he is heading into an election year, the last thing he wants is a recession. That might just spook him into a trade deal with China - or at least a major easing of the trade war. Perhaps his latest tariff delay is the start of such a shift. The resulting economic optimism might provide SM with an opportunity to get the bond sale completed. The downside is that the SP will have been further battered by then.

Conversely, as someone here pointed out recently, Trump might want to use the trade war to rally his base in election year, even if that means a recession. In which case, he will double down on the trade war - and it will be more bad news I'm afraid.

Who knows with Lyin' Donald?

In a recession (especially a US one) high-yield bonds tend be an unfavorable investment. Given that certain US recession indicators are now flashing red, that does not bode particularly well for another SM attempt at a selling its bonds. It is just bad luck that the bond sale has come when it has. Who knows? The storm clouds may clear just in time for SM to get them sold at the next attempt, but I wouldn't like to bet on it. I think they will have to resort to another plan to keep the cash coming.