Member Info for RogueRiver

Trader, shorter, optimist? Who knows? Better to focus on the macroeconomic situation and how it is likely to affect the bond sale. Clearly that is what the market is doing.

"What does this mean in terms of SM getting the bonds away?"

If the economic outlook is even worse when SM next attempt to sell the bonds, it isn't good.

Forget Hong Kong. This is a bigger threat to Sirius. On the upside, if the threat of recession starts badly to affect the US stock market, it might spur Trump to find a trade deal, or at least start talking up the prospect of one. On the downside...well, you know the rest.

"Bond market flashes ominous warning over US and UK economies

The global bond markets have flashed an ominous signal for two of the world’s biggest economies amid mounting concern over a slowdown in growth and persistent uncertainty caused by the US-China trade battle.

“This is a warning sign about the global slowdown,” said Andrea Iannelli, investment director at Fidelity International."

https://www.ft.com/content/95c4362e-be79-11e9-b350-db00d509634e

"Reuters today; "Hong Kong tensions could zap any trade deal" I keep saying watch whats happening there it could affect this share price nobody seems to be listening."

A lot of things could zap a trade deal, but I don't think HK is one of them. As far as Trump is concerned, China can do what it likes in HK, because it's their territory. Trump will doubtless use any Chinese military intervention in HK as Twitter ammo and the State Department will make a lot of disapproving noises, but it won't go beyond that.

Meanwhile, Trump will continue blowing hot and cold over the trade war - so it's anyone's guess as to how his words and actions will affect the market view of Sirius's bond sale prospects. In short, get used to more of the rollercoasting SP.

I don't think Trump really gives a monkey's about Hong Kong. He might use any Chinese intervention there as a bit of extra Twitter ammo in the trade war, but in reality he will see it as an internal matter for China.

Hong Kong amounts to just 3% of China's GDP. While it is still important to China, its economic clout isn't sufficient to prevent China going in Tiananmen style as a last resort.

Meanwhile, the UK, as the co-signatory to the Hong Kong handover, is powerless in the matter.

Amazing. When broker ratings are positive the SP doesn't budge. When one broker downgrades, the SP falls 4%. At least it seems to have stabilized around 130p. Shorts have risen slightly to 4%.

The Donald giveth and The Donald taketh away (or t'other way round today).

"Director buys? That would show some confidence!!!"

They're probably searching down the back of the sofa like everyone else around here atm.

"It’s called spoofing and is illegal trick used to manipulate the price of a stock."

Of course, that could be happening here, but it is pretty unlikely. The more probable (and mundane) explanation is that the current SP reflects the fact Sirius failed to sell its bonds - and time is running out for it to do so.

"Someone still has confidence buying £480k worth at 8.20p !"

Yeah, but is it long-term confidence in the SP - or confidence in it hitting 8.5p tomorrow, so they can walk away with a £17k (pre-costs) profit?

kld1
Yeah, we get it. Are you going to spend the next 11 weeks finding new ways to phrase the same thing, over and over again?

"Having written to numerous ministers and mps recently, I am surprised to have had no replies at all particularly from the local constituency guys. They will all. have an election to fight and sxx will be headline news."

I suspect MPs are more preoccupied with Brexit, food bank users and those in agony because their hip operations have been cancelled, again. Speculative share investors are probably somewhere near the bottom of the in-tray.

On certain days for weeks now it has been 'all sells' . No change there.

There will certainly be advantages to a very weak peso as far as President's operating costs in Argentina are concerned. Whether that will offset nervousness about a change of government remains to be seen.

FP

The management surely knew what havok their failure to secure the bond sale would wreak upon the SP. I simply don't believe they stayed their hand to get a better deal later. They might yet secure the bond sale, but given the short time frame and the current economic climate, all bets are off - hence the SP.

"These bonds will fly"

They didn't, hence the current SP.

"Well I’ve been spooked out today and sold at a 47% loss. A LTH not wanting to lose any more life savings. Could afford to lose it, but still could not stomach it any more."

A very difficult decision, but at least you will sleep soundly tonight.

"What a sad state of affairs for our once great nation to let a reigniting vision of such innovation and prospect fail? If we couldn't have got this right....then we certainly have no hope"

A slightly histrionic take on 'great nationhood', given that popular investment ventures have been going down the pan for hundreds of years. Besides, the Woodsmith Mine project will most likely go on. It is whether it will go on with PIs that is the major cause of anxiety here.

"You don’t quite get it do you - you are dangerous, and your actions could well cost all of us our investments- you need to calm down and think...."

I'm afraid it has gone beyond the 'thinking' stage with many PIs. Some are now into the realms of desperate fantasy. Instead of finding new and creative ways to waste the time of the BOD and burn through the company's remaining cash reserves, PIs should be planning as to whether they are prepared to lose what remains of their investment in SM. That is the worst case (but increasingly risky) scenario here - and at least some have the wit to recognize the fact.

"Like I have said previously there has been too much blood sweat and tears expended previously on this for it not to succeed. Institutions and certain Board members have too much skin in the game also and it is a project of GDP and national importance."

Hmm, just like DeLorean, Torotrack, Afren and a few others. "Too big to fail" is probably the weakest argument out of the many touted here for keeping faith with SM.

"Tell Sid" was offering investment in an established and very profitable company. Sirius is a speculative investment, which is losing money and may be about to run out of it.

Presumably, those who are enthusiastic about Sirius (and can afford to invest) have already put their money where their mouth is. The rest of the population, while probably supportive of the project (in as much as it is a British company which is creating UK employment) don't really give a chuff about private investors in Sirius and don't really care how the project ends up being funded (i.e. with or without PIs).