Member Info for RogueRiver

Nice bounce on the latest forecast from Goldman Sachs: Upgrade from 'neutral' to 'buy'.

Agree Fred. I think it will happen after the Fed meeting (17-18 Sep). Meantime, the SP will probably continue bouncing around in the 10-10.6p range.

Javid announced an extra £2.2bn for defence next year, a real-terms increase of 2.6%. That has to be good news for Bab****.

Respectable gain today, closing up 1.07% at 10.40p.

Shorts already dropping.

I don't think anyone believes the investment manager at Readmayne Bentley has any additional info. He was probably being asked what effect a government guarantee would have for SM. It's the source of the BBC reporter's information that is important here.

The Bloomberg article is encouraging, but it is referring to two companies with very large incomes. SM has no income at present, so it is a different proposition for a high-yield bond sale. That said, a higher than normal interest rate might mitigate the risk for bond investors, particularly if some sort of government guarantee were attached (hence the relevance of government-backing talk).

Of course it is conjecture, but if you have a better theory for the source of the BBC's info...

I reckon the BBC info came from a SM management insider, hence the lack of any comment from the company - and the reporter keeping his distance (i.e. reporting from outside the premises).

"However, they (the reporter and the Investment Manager of Redmayne Bentley) must have heard something from somewhere."

This.

Even regional BBC News editors are a pretty thorough lot. I highly doubt they would allow one of their reporters to run with a story like this on the basis of weak speculation. Had it been speculative reporting (on, say, a slow news day) then there would have been qualifying remarks, such as "it is rumoured that". I didn't hear anything to that effect.

Unfortunately, it's a window with a broken hinge, until the bonds are sold, hence the current SP.

If, as expected, Javid announces a halt to HS2, then government (guarantor?) support for SM could well be mentioned, along with other measures, such as Leeds-Manchester rail improvements - as evidence that the Northern Powerhouse isn't being abandoned. Putting off HS2 is going to free-up a lot of funds.

Linky: https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/09/02/forget-sirius-minerals-id-buy-this-high-growth-millionaire-maker-stock-instead/

Nice to see a positive recommendation for BREE, even if it is at the expense of Sirius (which I also hold).

jonesrichard

Thank you for posting the closing price each day, it is much appreciated.

Just one thing. Do you think you could title it 'SP finish'? For some reason 'SP finished' gives me momentary palpitations.

I don't think there is anything to be read into that. The SP will probably continue bouncing around in the 10 - 10.6p range until there is further news on the bonds.

LifeonMars

It is less a question of patience and more a matter of using what evidence is out there to assist in making an investment decision.

I personally think that the yield of the bond, together with the $2.5 billion JPM facility that its sale will unlock (thereby making the bond more tenable) are factors which militate in favour of a successful bond sale (notwithstanding short-term hiccups, like President Trump's big trap). But that's just my very inexpert take on the situation. I'd be much more convinced by, say, a statistic showing a rise in the sale of high-yield corporate bonds in the last couple of weeks.

Let's not lose sight of the squirrel. The most important factor here is the current state of the high-yield corporate bond market. We certainly know it wasn't favourable a few weeks ago when the last attempt to sell the bonds was made. Has it improved since then and, if so, where's the evidence?

cjgoldsmith

If you truly are a long-term holder, then you will have lost a lot of money on this share. Five years ago, it was trading in the 20 - 38p range. I appreciate President Energy has turned around somewhat, which is what attracted me to buying into it. The new macroeconomic and political landscape in Argentina, however, means that nothing about this company is certain anymore. Its entire future could be put in jeopardy at the stroke of a (very unpredictable) presidential pen. It's just too risky for my liking. I won't be buying again, even if it hits 2p.

woolverstone13

If 'professionals' like Woodford can get it so badly wrong, then there is certainly no shame in us PIs making bad calls. As you know, a lot of it is just down to luck. I tend to spread my risk by investing in FTSE 100 companies across multiple sectors, which works for me. I usually also have a couple of speculative holdings, of which SM is currently one. If the bond sale goes ahead it will, of course, be a lot less speculative.