Member Info for RogueRiver

Nice bounce today. Bodes well for a steady rise toward demerger.

Maucha. I know what you mean. I think last summer was a bit of a false dawn. The recovery plan had some way to go and there was a lot of bad publicity for the company - mostly hangovers from the previous regime at Capita. I think we will see a steady climb toward the next update.

Given the current market turmoil, nothing is going anywhere fast at the moment. The CPI SP has held up remarkably well.

SP breached 150p again today (hitting almost 151). Can't be long before it stays above 150.

Nice bounce back today above £14. Clearly some investors are capable of looking beyond Christmas (and US Civil War II et al).

Correction: Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) Plc and TT Electronics plc are held by Pru, not the other way round.

I would treat (the accuracy of) these RNSs with caution. According to 2 recent RNSs, others have been adding substantially. Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) Plc have just acquired a 5.54% holding and TT Electronics plc a 5.14% holding, which would substantially outweigh Capital Group's 5% disposal.

I'm sure that traders sweat about short-term dramas and hypotheticals, but as a long-term investor with a 5-10 year outlook I'm not really concerned with such things. Given that Pru represents about 3% of my portfolio, I'm also adequately diversified in the unlikely event that it does go pear-shaped.

In any case, what we do we know (from previous demergers) is that demerged companies tend to perform far better apart than they did as a whole. I've yet to see anything that convinces me that the Pru/M&G demerger will be any different.

How is it a "very real thing"? It's just speculation.

We are probably entering a recession. So what? We've seen them before and we will see them again. Meanwhile, Pru is still a very safe long-term investment, regardless of the short to medium-term political noise.

"Nov - UK election (likely), Labour government "appropriates" 10% of Pru's equity and 10% of M&Gs equity (potentially)"

Get a grip. The general election bit is quite possible, even probable, but the rest is pure fantasy.

Indeed, if that isn't momentum, I don't know what is.

"Buying to speculate on an uplift caused by demerger is a fools game in these conditions."

Except that we know from previous demergers that spun-off companies tend to outperform their former owner by 10% in the first 12 months and more than 20% over the first three years, following the demerger. Uplift is certainly not guaranteed, but far from being a matter of speculation, we know that it is more likely to happen than not. Previous demergers have been executed in politically turbulent conditions. It is a fools game to ignore proven economic trends, while focusing only on current political ones.

The road improvements announced by the Chancellor today are good news for Breedon. Whether that will be reflected in the SP remains to be seen.

"To encourage others to take a irrevocable massive hit ?"

In case you hadn't noticed, the 'irrevocable massive hit' ship has already sailed.

dunc

If selling at 10p (with a 10% profit) on the Friday before the crash is 'clownish', I'll wear the label with pride. I'm not gloating. It was just a lucky decision.

I'm afraid I've seen too many PIs hanging on and hoping for a miracle in these situations (see Deb, TC, Flybe et al). It's awful, but you have to know when to call it a day.

If I were still holding, I think I would be looking at 4p as a good selling opportunity, in the circumstances.

In spite of the fine, there is also some good news out today for Pru:

1. UBS retains its buy rating, with a target of £19.

2. Morgan Stanley reiterates its overweight rating.

3. Prudential PLC on Monday said its Asian asset management business Eastspring Investments has agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Thanachart Fund Management Co Ltd.

The deal, valued at THB4.21 billion, roughly GBP108 million, will see Eastspring secure 25% of the fund management firm from Thai bank Thanachart Bank Public Co Ltd and another 25% stake held by Thailand's state-owned Government Savings Bank.

Eastspring will have the option to take sole ownership of Thanachart Fund Management "in the future".

Nic Nicandrou, chief executive of Prudential Corp Asia, said: "As a leading life insurer and asset manager in Asia, Prudential is committed to helping customers protect their health and grow their wealth. By signing this agreement, we are seizing the opportunity to acquire a highly attractive business in the growing Thai market and work more closely with strong partners - TMB and Thanachart Bank.

"Karl Loomes, the author of that Fool article, doesn't even seem aware that the company is demerging in just three weeks time, not even mentioning it: it's an astonishing omission of staggering proportions!"

I read it and thought exactly the same. For someone commenting on a company that is demerging in 3 weeks' time, he seems remarkably ill-informed.

Good to see a bit of relief for battered PIs.

I was tempted to buy, but having read this I don't think I will, even if it hits 371p again.

"PIK bonds are ultra high-risk, paying sky-high interest rates and favoured by businesses desperate to avoid shelling out cash even if it means piling up debt. They signal a company teetering on the edge. Aston Martin is that. Since floating its shares have plummeted to 544p. The group warned this summer that costs were rising and it would turn out just over 6,000 cars this year — 1,000 fewer than expected.

In April, it raised $190m through another senior secured bond. In August, it took out £90m in short-term loans to tide it over.

But the “headwinds” persist, Aston Martin moaned on Wednesday, even as borrowings — all of which fall due in 2022 — approach £900m. That nearly matches last year’s revenues and is well over four times the group’s most optimistic measures of earnings, including orders that have been scheduled but are nowhere near delivery.

If the DBX sells well, then earnings will motor. But investors should brace themselves. If the parachute fails to open fully, Aston Martin will crash to the bottom of the ravine."

https://www.ft.com/content/1ad7f2a0-df82-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc