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If there were any dilution to the bonds, I don't think the SP would make much short-term progress from where it is now - maybe an immediate rise into the 12-13p range. The 13.5% bond news a few months ago was bad enough . If dilution were added to that, investor sentiment would be pretty depressed.

I think management will avoid dilution at almost any cost. Given the much improved macroeconomic climate and the soaring market for high-yield bonds, I will be amazed if they can't get them away at a decent rate and without dilution. The market seems to be of that view too - hence the 8% rise in the SP this week.

Not sure if this has been posted before, but it does confirm just how much the appetite for high-yield bonds has changed from early last month:

" Funds that buy US high-yield bonds took in $2.8bn in the past week, the largest inflow since the beginning of February, as fears of an imminent recession receded.

“We are going to be plagued by a prolonged low interest rate environment,” said Jim Sarni, managing principal at Payden & Rygel Investment Management. “Investors are just saying ‘I need yield’.”

Investors favoured higher-rated, investment-grade bonds when sovereign bond yields initially plummeted in August, attempting to remain in relatively safe assets as fears of an economic downturn remained elevated.

The EPFR data for the week ended September 11, however, showed investors becoming more comfortable with riskier junk bonds from borrowers that would be more at risk in a downturn."

https://www.ft.com/content/f3a258aa-d5af-11e9-a0bd-ab8ec6435630

It's perhaps interesting to note that today's closing price is just 14% below the most recent 'pre-bond crisis' trade low of 12.92p on 19 Jun. The SP recovered to hit a trade high of 21.08p on 12 Jul.

I think this demonstrates that:
1. As of today, the SP is not all that far off recent 'normal' trading conditions.
2. It is not unreasonable to expect the SP to hit 20p within a month of the bonds being sold.

Of course, one has to factor in investor caution after such a turbulent few weeks, but I think this would be ameliorated by the prospect of full funding up to production.

It seems logical now that they will wait for the expected Fed rate cut 17-18 Sep. It could mean an extra bit off the bond yield %.

Now might be a good time to start that drum-roll .

(He says, having just called them 'nonsense'.)

The 3.6M and 1.9M buys were both off-book TNCPs (i.e. transactions not contributing to the price discovery process). There were quite a few reported after the close. They are not straightforward share buys, but they could be significant in terms of II activity.

Lazarus1
Of course, but it is certainly much better grounds for optimism that some of the amorphous nonsense that sends tech shares into a stratospheric rise.

However, looking on the bright side, today's biggest trade was a 1.3M buy at 16:00. Off-book, but a proper buy, not some TNCP/NPFT nonsense.

Davey
Uncrossing trade. Not a buy. Just a bookkeeping exercise at the end of the trading day.

They certainly were a couple of days ago, but we will have to wait until next week to see where they stood today.

Maybe not quite a breakout, but certainly indicative of market optimism that the bonds will be (or are being) sold.

Delayed reaction it is then. 600s next week? With around £200 million worth of shares to find, the shorters had better get their skates on. Looks like they may already have done so.

Yeah, several attempts to break out from 11p, which I'm reading as a fairly positive sign.

SP this morning is like the calm before the storm. When it comes, let's hope it blows a fair wind.

"Today's move seems to be on the idea that management has approached government about a bailout."

This line is quite laughable. Surely the idea that management had approached government (in desperation) about a bailout would have sent the SP down rather than up. Was this really written by a financial journalist or was it just idle speculation by someone in the comments section? A far more credible reason for the rise is that market conditions for the bond sale have improved markedly.

The important things to remember with FT Alphaville is that hardly anyone reads it.

Not quite - 20% up here. If it's any consolation, my dogs of Clipper Logistics shares are managing to suppress any tendency toward self-satisfaction.

Yep, quite a few big off-book TNCPs showing again on the London Stock Exchange site. Funnily enough, there are none of the cancelled big trades we have seen of late. Perhaps the LSE have rumbled it as attempted market manipulation and refused to cancel anymore.

I doubt it will be heading significantly down again. BAB are looking at a decade of healthy profits off the back of this order. Are the shorters holding out for a fall in 2030?