Member Info for RogueRiver

"Don’t get too excited....£100m is only....3.85p per share....someone has got their sums wrong."

Thanks. My maths is a bit ropy, but the FT (which I quoted verbatim) ought to know better.

Needless to say, no rocket today, just a modest gain.

Another solid day.

Bizarrely, shorts are showing up at 8.37% on shorttracker, as at 24 Sep. More bizarrely, every fund shorting the share is shown as having reduced their position, except AKO, whose position increased by just 0.10% - on 15 Aug??? Have I missed something?

If indeed shorts were up to 8.37% on 24 Sep (the day the SP slumped to 541p) perhaps they did a swift about-turn on yesterday's trading update, which would account for the 6% SP rise. We shall have to wait until pm tomorrow to find out.

I can see the SP rocketing tomorrow: £3.85 per share special divi next year.

"The UK’s largest insurance company announced on Wednesday that asset manager and insurer M&G would be spun off into a separate FTSE 100 company by October 21 — 10 days before the UK is due to leave the EU.

M&G will not raise new capital via the transaction; instead existing Prudential shareholders will effectively receive one M&G share for every group share they own. In an added one-off bonus for shareholders, M&G said it expected to pay a special dividend of about £100m next year, equivalent to £3.85 per share."

https://www.ft.com/content/384ada26-dfa2-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

Crikey, what a day!

We won't know for a couple of days, but it looks like short sellers may have been hitting their stop-losses, triggering lots of buying . It's very satisfying to see the boot on the other foot for a change. Covering over £200 million worth of shares is going to keep them very busy over the next few weeks.

Nice rise on the way to the 600s. BAB appears to have left behind the negative cloud that has been hanging over it for the last year.

The shorters ought to be nervous about this and I think we will see a major short squeeze soon. (simonrolph seems to have gone very quiet.)

Today of all days, I'm not sure the BB would be able to stomach the irony of Mr Jones's daily "SP finished" update. I hope he's okay. You have to admire his boundless optimism and, whatever you may think of him, he's a perfectly decent chap.

"Looks like we'll all have to vote lib dem then."

Always have of late - and probably always will.

Hate to say it, but I think the MMs will chuck this around for the next few months before the inevitable happens. We've seen it so many times before with distressed companies. The Sirius project will almost certainly go on to full production, but I think the PI journey is over on this one. Sorry. I really hope I'm wrong (I have been many times).

I'm sure today will feel like a bereavement for a lot of people here. Many investors here have been through a lot; it's normal to feel angry and upset. But it was just bad luck. If Woodford can get it wrong, so can anyone else.

There are reports that today's oil-related news has affected risk appetite in general - which might have been perceived by the market as making the SM bonds more difficult to sell. I'm not saying it's a logical reaction, but it may offer an explanation.

Of course, there is that too, but I'm trying to keep it pertinent to recent events, rather than ancient history.

The SP was tootling along nicely (even gaining) to around 11.22p, when at 12:05 there was a sell for £61,080.80, which seemed to be the starting gun for the sell-off. A couple more largish sells came within the next few minutes and then it fell for about the next 1hr 15min to 9.75p. After a slow recovery to 10.63p at 14:03, it fell away again to the 10p close.

Very odd and inexplicable, but isn't that the market for you? The SP is now back to where it was on 23 Aug.

I disagree. It's about setting your stop loss at the right level. I have one set and I'm still holding.

Like I said - no news.

There's no news - it's BS.

Big buys going in now.

The current SP is just 14% below the most recent 'pre-bond crisis' trade low of 12.92p on 19 Jun. The SP recovered to hit a trade high of 21.08p on 12 Jul. Based on this, it's not unreasonable to expect the SP to hit 20p within a month of the bonds being sold. After that, I'm sure we'll see the usual ups and downs until full production is reached. After that, a progressive 1 year climb into the 40-60p range.

Not much sign of pessimism in the SP this morning. Onwards and upwards.

LostInTheCasino
Possibly, but if it were a herd thing, one might have expected the herd to go the other way, given that SM has had only negative press coverage of late.

According to the London Stock Exchange, yesterday's SM total share value traded was the highest it has been for one month - and over 3 times that of last Monday. Given that we saw an 8% rise this week and far less volatility over the last 2 trading days, I'm beginning to wonder if something (positive) isn't already afoot.

wwguk
From what I have read, the general consensus is that the Fed cut will be 0.25%. I agree that waiting for the Fed decision now seems rather pointless and that SM should be launching the bond sale immediately (assuming they haven't already done so).