Member Info for Roguemale1

Hi Rupans.

I think the key is enough financial info for some clever bloke to see when its gonna pay a dividend again and therefore a value/share. Needs a desire to own the stock which has been burned away over the last few years even by us PIs. Otherwise it will be a drawn out process of waiting for published hard results.

Yeah my source was a couple days off. FIngers crossed...

Ok.

What do you think re the goodwill issue? I hope i'm wrong but I fear there will be another load washed out with liberal use of the word "Underlying". Cant see a deal on ships tbh.

There needs to be more clarity re how the insurance partnership will affect the bottom line. And then hopefully some cleaver people will say therefore its worth this and the price will move and attract new new investors, because the 5 of us here aren't going to move it are we?

Good luck anyway.

Apparently 21st is d day.

Ah the oracle has spoken.

What good news are you expecting Thomson?

I emailed them to ask for results date-no response obviously.

Don't give a monkeys about retail....

Paul. No drama. lets park it there. The only thing I'd add is that my life has been the private co. grey gold farmers. And in all of those it would be construction who were hoisted on the gibbet in this situation not the CFO. "We make history, you just write about it etc etc".

As I said previously, totally agree about focus-reducing, clash of interests, side gigs-they should rein him in on that.

Hi Paul.

Well I don't think the dotcom bubble and Vistry is a valid comparison really-a few guys with a computer and no profit and no income isn't analogous.

The "no financial controls" statement is only admissible if you are saying that they are lying about it being one business unit..which will show in the accounts in due course and then be audited. I'm in construction albeit a different sector and predicting costs is extremely difficult and incredibly sensitive to a heap of stuff not necessarily controllable.

Which promised profits have not materialised? If you read the RNS during the rising price they have. But now we have a set back yes. This is the worst time of year for construction in terms of cash, so I don't expect an improvement just yet, that will come when they decide to sell the schemes mentioned in the last RNS.

You said in an earlier post that you had averaged down to north of 900? SO you must have bought initially at somewhere like what 1100? So isn't the truth that you bought on the back of your hindsight hot air bubble at 1100, averaged down too soon and now you have a paper loss which upsets you?

FWIW I got in too soon and average 700 but I sat on a paper loss on COST for 3 years and made a bag in the 4th.

We're both down but life is more complicated than share price goes up=mgt heros, price go down=mgt zeroes. It'll come but needs a couple of years now, until there's some audited confidence. GL anyway. We're both in it together!

Paul,

Just coming back to Vistry for a sec, you mentioned in an earlier post that the rise to 1400 from 565 was based on hot air?

Can you clarify what you based your opinion on there? I mean from all the TU, HY and FY RNSs they are basically improving figures, presumably then signed off by auditors. There is a mention of a mid term ambition in terms of GP I think but that's a 3-5 yr target I guess.

All construction companies have outbreaks of bad jobs-Laing, Kier, Costain, etc etc. It happens and usually the same management team restore order, work through the bad-whatever caused it and numbers recover and price follows..I don't like GFs side gigs but I still think it'll recover. We shall see.

Lots of overdone falls in the sector-look at WJG or Severs to name but two. There must be people who work either for Vistry or supply chain who could comment on the mood in the business right now. Hopefully someone will offer a view..GLA

Agree helloDave, I have also heard they are busy and that funding is beginning to free up a bit. But to get back to a sensible price they have to clarify the "mid and long term funding" note which crashed the price.

Its a shame that they don't engage with retail investors-anyone know when the results are gonna hit?

Let's hope not Winchester. Its worth a quid even if they raise significantly and 2 quid if they don't. Will take a few years but that's fine with me. Min from last 12 months around 60p fwiw.

Can't post a link but basically saying various government contractors are renegotiating existing contracts or have clauses in to protect them from legislative increases...Mitie expecting to recover 60% of their increases....join the queue AH if you haven't already!

The interview is well worth a watch. In the 31.35 section he gives a good overview of what they do and how the cash works around. And actually then he comes back to them in response to a question at 51.40 and its noted that book value is circa 49p/share and that the most likely funding route is partnership, though an equity raise cannot be fully ruled out. He says that he believes even then the raise price would be more than the (at the time of interview) 28p. Could do with interest rates continuing to fall and some clarity. I guess we get something in the Jan results.

FROM-Well the Enquirer reckons the affected works are Corten steel which is designed to be exposed, so majority wont be encased..https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2024/11/27/severfield-welding-crisis-hits-five-national-highways-bridges/

JG-it was due on 29/11 but I didn't see it-it hasn't appeared on the investor relations presentation as yet...

Maybe, but if he's half right on the value here i'll forgive him lol.

Happy Xmas to all indeed!

I think it needs them to say what quantum of savings there are and how the revenues will split. But having said that atm it seems the market needs a couple of years of hard, actual good numbers before the price moves much.

I am not giving up but for me its 3 years.(again! LOL).

Well its a shame that most of the consideration initially is eaten up inworking capital replacement, I guess that was inevitable, but hopefully some of the target 30m/yr will materialise.

Biggest thing could be an end to goodwill write down, but it needs someone far more clever than me to figure that one.

I'm not sure what some people were expecting beyond this?

FWIW I think people are getting carried away with this. DLG is being sold as a whole. SAGA is not.

No point in daydreaming pro rata lumps of cash.

The only thing being sold is AICL-whats that worth?

The rest is a "partnership". To me that doesn't mean AGEAS paying a huge amount though reduces risk I guess which has a value.-jam tomorrow....

Interesting-I ended up at Cape Wrath via my holding in WJG. In that industry, so had already patiently waited for COST before I had heard of CW.

This and TTG have made me a few quid so far. I like their rebel standpoint.

And ease up the carping on GO Compare lads? The shares are as a whole last time I looked.

GLA.

Agreed last point.

The word on the street industry wise is that they are upbeat, paying their bills and winning new work. So why did they feel the need to torpedo the price a while back now with no immediate issues to report.

We shall see I guess. Have a backstop buy just in case to make my maths easier, lol:-