Member Info for RogerJolly

That's interesting Smudger, 8 posts one every Wednesday between 11.30 and 2.30. See the next exciting publication in episode 9 on Wednesday 25th January right here on LSE TV

Let us assume the dam does get to full operation in 2024. At 2021 the call was for 1.6gw, 55% of which is provided by gas. The dam is (that word) "expected" to produce 2.1gw total 3.7gw peak requirement. The forecasted predicted peak requirement by 2025 to be in excess of 4gw and continuing to grow as power to the people is expanded.

Assuming those figures, then there will be a shortfall of .3gw and a call for 30% more gas than currently used/available. With the economic expansion, that demand is sure to grow year on year.

The country is still in drought and has had lower precipitation over recent years. They have started to fill the dam but it holds 34,000,000,000 cubic feet of water and there is no guarantee it will fill up by 2025 in which case the shortfall will be 2.4 gw so we can assume this to be a part of the urgency from the energy minister to see the drill and pipeline completed to enable production.

In my view there is nothing for Aminex to fear from the dam offering a limited extra production. The medium and long term need for gas in Tanzania will see exponential growth in demand.

Can we have at least one monthly update on the companies operational position?

Alcapone, that rig has be down beyond 4,000mtrs according the Xhalo spec before its page was taken down after the extension. I think it was over specced for HE1 and adequate for ARA needs, but I was only speculating possibilities. I really hope they have something lined up for March or as near as damn it.

Unless ARA simply haven't told AEX a rig has been secured, its all cutting it a bit fine for a March drill. It seems HE1 were inline for Xhalo 202 a few weeks ago which may have meant ARA were next inline for that rig. At least from the drill specs, I think ARA would be wanting something quite similar.

If that was the plan then Invictus extending their contract would mean ARA are are now competing with HE1 for a suitable rig in a bidding war for first dibs.

If it wasn't the planned rig, then ARA may have something up their sleeve. Fingers crossed, that be the case because I'm in both and don't want to see delays on either.

Reasonable speculation LegalWolf. Rig suppliers will want to be sure of payment whichever way an agreement is reached

Thanks for the BH info RoJo.
You talk of GSA, I would assume that is still in negotiation stage but the TZ government has indicated it wishes to put out more favourable terms to encourage investments. Not sure when that will be finalised, but as for the pipeline, the government have already committed to building it.
"Construct a 30 km pipeline to tie the Ntorya gas field into the existing Madimba processing and pumping station in the next six to nine months." This was officially announced back in November and on their government twitter page, they told the world they were discussing terms with landowners, so I hardly think the go ahead can be questioned. Timing is all down to the rig availability IMO and aex are not party to that information until told by the operator.

You seem very well informed RoJo, do you have an inside line on rig supply? I seem to remember some sort of rig list being published somewhere, but I can't find it on a search. I think there was obe showing who has planned for drilling each year. Do you have any links? Thanks

@glennhoss personally if I had any doubts about the management of a company I wouldn't be putting my money into it. That's not to say they wont make mistakes or do everything the way I would like it, but is really that simple, if you don't trust just leave well alone!

Cheers for the answers guys

Is this the same rig where there were legal issues? It seems Cluff are different owners?

Looking again, it may not be suitable for the depth aex wish to drill, but happy hear views of any rig workers

Currently in Kenya, expected to start drilling East Africa early 2023 https://www.hotspurgeothermal.com/drilling/

Talk on HE1 of a Tanzanian buyers club. Their CEO had spoke of other drillers in country approached them about joint bookings for service and rigs etc. I'm in both, but I'm not sure I like that idea. Who would get first dibs? Who else is planning drills in the country this year?

I like Dai's cunning plan so much I topped up with 10m shares

Well that do you know. Seems I called that one right. Any bets on another tomorrow? :-)

As big as the gas find is, that potential for oil is certainly a good reason for ARA to invest so much. In fact I understand now having taken Scirocco share of commitments, they are pumping in $35m more than was envisaged at the start of the farm in. They soon jumped in to prevent the WEN offer from going through. No bad thing I think, best not to have to many cooks in the kitchen. Fingers crossed some rig news not too far away.

As far as I am aware Invictus held a contract with Xhalo for a 1+1. It seems they are going ahead with the second drill, but rather than risk having to wait for its return, they've elected to pay a premium to keep it on station

Who will be next to buy and did they get a whisper of things to come in the near future?

They were quite excited about that second one following some decent oil shows I remember. I wouldn't be banking on oil, but the new well is updip and the lower Triassic target is untested so fingers crossed. If it turns out to be gas or condensate it will still add more vale.