RE: This week26 Nov 2022 08:49
Bighammer, Stephen11, Starres & Inphobe: some well reasoned posts, which I’m enjoying reading even though we’re all very concerned about the current situation. It’s a big shame that it’s taken Gilham and Budd to bring the company to its knees to rid this bb of some of the wild rampers.
My take is that the BODs now know they’ve blown the commercialisation aspect of their work over these last three years and the Nomad, for all the reasons you have expressed and we all now understand after the latest results and presentation, has forced them to include the statements regarding being a ‘going concern’. I think Budd and Gil have effectively put their hands up and let the market know they’re up for sale. This could end up being a good result for lths and especially for those who have only more recently bought in. Two scenarios imv. First, a potential purchaser lets things go right to the wire and attempts to nab GdR for a song. If there is the risk of going bust - Starres is right in that they will find it extremely difficult to get a raise from the market now the mcap is so low, no pis will buy into a placing given zero confidence in management and any loan could be prohibitively expensive (& that’s only if they could get one and on the recently publish results they don’t have a chance) - will potential buyers just wait for administration and then pick up the technology for peanuts? In this scenario share holders unfortunately will end up with nothing. Second (& hopefully this is more likely), a buyer comes forward before the AGM and so Budd gets his job and salary guaranteed and then another suitor puts in a rival bid and we’re off to the races.
In the second scenario I could see a final buyout price of £30m - £50m and most of us get away with out too serious a loss. I think the first scenario is less likely because, even though far cheaper for a buyer, it works a) take much longer and b) all the technology would have to be handed over to new teams who would take time to understand how GDR R & D have come up with the products. £50m would be pocket money to a big pharma to bag what is clearly a great team of scientists and engineers and some great products with massive potential. They could easily dump Budd further down the line or find something he’d be good at (making the tea?) but my guess is someone somewhere will want to bag GDR quickly so they can get on asap with realising the vast potential of AIHL and the stroke market tests and what ever else they’ve got in development at the mo eg the TB tests. I just can’t see this company ending up being left to rot and the products wasted. Hope I’m right.
Good w/e all.
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