Member Info for Rocka999

From memory the only thing he got right from the last report was the lack of an international deal thus far, he lost credibility when he produced a bullish broker note went to bed and released a bearish broker note the day after. His initial analysis must have been seriously flawed hence why's is he still a leading analyst for Redburn I wonder?

We're due for one today ?

A good piece on the fortunes of the big 4:- "Tesco had its worst day in nearly two years on Wednesday on a forecast that the shares would more than halve. Investors are wrong to expect UK grocery profit margins to recover to historic levels, said Redburn analyst James Tracey, who until 2010 was an insight manager at Tesco. He argued that lost profitability in recent years has been caused not by competition or price cuts but by a rising burden of operating costs, which will be difficult to claw back when the revenue pool is shrinking. The big four have been taking market from “a soft underbelly” of small grocers for the past four decades, Redburn said. That source of growth is fading, the broker forecast, as market share is moving back to niche grocers such as Waitrose and the discount chains, which have structural cost advantages over the big four. “With an insufficient sales opportunity we estimate 20-30 per cent of space needs to be closed. Managements’ stoic confidence in respective turnaround plans makes this unlikely,” Redburn told clients. “Without capacity removal, the margin recovery that the market hopes for will not occur. When the market realises this, Tesco, Sainsbury and Morrison should derate materially.” HSBC also turned cautious on Tesco, downgrading to “hold” on the risk that Asda will launch a price war. The stock dropped 8.1 per cent at 161.6p while Wm Morrison lost 7.2 per cent at 172.4p and J Sainsbury fell 3.7 per cent to 214.6p"

"Overweight" PT £4.20

Crossed my mind as well which is were top slicing comes in, don't really need to explain do I ? The reason for the falls in the grocery sector yesterday were the rumours of yet another price war via ASDA who are losing a fair bit of market share, just like the others really which I've pointed out previously

I'd like to see a further acquisition myself. Great news today regards the contract, the name change seems to be working wonders !

You've obviously not been looking at Ocado for long but there are some investors who have been here for some time now and bought in a lot lower than today's price.

Ocado was bankrupt 4 years ago according the bears, a big fat zero according to one leading retail analyst who's now out of a job, looks who's still trading 4 years on and growing

I do agree that nothing seems to be happening much at present, but all that can change quickly, probably when you've sold your holding as you say. I sold out of CEY (Centamin) at 60p a couple of years ago and it's now more than doubled and is continuing to rise as we speak, if only we knew then what we know now :)

http://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2016/07/the-big-interview-paul-clarke-chief-of-technology-at-ocado

Why have they got it spot on?

Morrisons have plenty of depots to cover distribution, insurance will cover any loss and online won't be affected

When the discounters start closing stores you know the pressures on, Sainsburys joint venture is now over

Redcentric sale paving the way for that investment in ECV, looks a good move imo, there appears to be some money left over also, share buy back on the cards ?

Mr Tatton-Brown purchased 100,000 shares at a price of 226.70 pence per share on 1 July 2016 This looks a great indicator of good news a few months from now !

It was pleasing to hear my good friend Tim state that Amazonfresh has had zero impact on Ocado's sales and anyone who's looked into Amazon's grocery picking and logistics set up would understand why that is. For those who haven't seen it yet, the guys at Amazonfresh walk around a very large warehouse with a handheld scanner picking groceries off a shelf and packing them into brown paper bags. I assume the veg and fruit are handled differently along with the frozen chicken etc which I hope they don't put on top of the eggs which easily smash I gather, also the brown Hovis loaf could get squished! The early reviews are not promising as you don't get what you ordered if at all, but I will await their sales figures with bated breath if they ever have the confidence to release them !

Comment from my good friend Tim Steiner "We’ve had no direct conversations with Autostore Hatteland about their comments on that technology, they have not informed that they believe that there is any issue with what we’re doing in our technology. We’re very confident about our technology and our ability to use it and the series of patents that we filed on it" He did tell me in confidence but I don't mind sharing with you guys for the record

You missed out the distribution depots and transport to store which is a large part of the costs for bricks and mortar stores plus shelf stacking, checkout and all the running costs associated with keeping the store open, then they do online at a loss. You still have to store pick, pack and pay a delivery driver plus his van. This is why Sainsburys, Morrisons, ASDA and Tesco are currently closing stores, reducing 24 hour openings and laying staff off they no longer require as they're now becoming unprofitable, a trend which will continue. Sales and profits in the big four are diminishing as online and the discounters surge, nothings going to change that for the forseeable future. Only Ocado, Waitrose, Iceland, ALDI & LIDL have increased market share over the last 3 years. Suppliers deliver direct to the Ocado CFC's and the robots pick the stock, so now one order can be picked in 5 minutes instead of 2-4 hours therefore matching Amazonfresh for same day delivery over a much larger area than the East of London. The lead time from ordering to delivery could be down to possibly 2 hours. You obviously don't have to pay robots either and they work 24/7 so they will be extremely capital efficient and don't need a fag break. For those that have done a little bit of research, the OSP will be more than just online, it could also incorporate click and collect and or post/courier, tailored to the retailers needs.

Ocado wouldn't be showing it's modular warehouse off to the public, it's commercially sensitive, you'll be saying next Hatteland have developed their own grocery picking solution ?

Another 6 months before we get any real sense of the numbers