RE: Chink of light21 Nov 2021 12:08
Rebels have taken Shewa Robit and made other advances only setback for them has been fighting Afar forces and deployment of new government drones.
Diplomatic efforts have intensified both America and China now pushing for a ceasefire. American position has shifted maybe they have got what they wanted geopolitically now (imo) and do not want things to go any further.
Will not deluge everyone with links but my reading of the situation is still that the rebels can take the capital but would find it difficult maybe impossible to hold down the whole country.
Rebels failed to even open a corridor in Afar after multiple attempts pushed back to Bati. The Somali Ethiopian region pulled it troops back just before the government offensive and still lots of support of government in Oromia and suspicion of TPLF even the OLF (Oromo Liberation Front) that is not that friendly with government warned TPLF against entering Oromia.
Think government will be open to a deal now so up to Rebels really realising the cannot conquer the whole country even if they took capital and deciding to just go for the best deal.
I expect fighting to intensify as well as diplomatic efforts as the rebels especially will want to make as much gains as possible to have extra leverage in any negotiations.
More hopeful that there will be an eventual ceasefire now than I was. Post any ceasefire would expect the regions be more powerful than they were compared to central government so Kefis move with local Church was a good one, kefi will just have to keep making the case for TK on a local level while waiting for things to play out on a national level.
Things are moving extremely fast with the conflict though so expect some kind of resolution still either this month or more likely now in December.
Henry Kissinger
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