RE: Investment case for Platinum25 Apr 2021 16:38
So, if we believe the long range forecasts for the price of palladium, and there is absolutely no reason not too, it is predicted to double over the coming 3 years, based on supply and demand this looks a reasonable view and it is an expert view (see link from Monkey70).
So now lets just take the PROVEN 2.2m oz at MT, forget the other 15m oz or more we have there, forget WK completely, ignore Semenovsky and let's pretend we have no legally binding JV arrangement with Rosgeo for 104.5m oz of PGMs, bear with me.........
if we do all that and stick with the 2.2m oz, put the fact that we have the lowest extraction cost in the industry point to one side as well for ease of calculation......
then our 2.2m oz would have a 'worth' of circa $6.6b today using $3,000 per oz (it's there or thereabouts), of course there is extraction etc etc etc, I know all that, but bear with me.........
based on expert industry views, our 2.2m oz will be worth $13.2b in 3 years time, a rise of $6.6b, and remember, costs of extraction will remain broadly similar, may increase a little, but the same volume of metal will have increased by $6.6b.
So, buy EUA today for $6.6b, and a very small element of it, the 2.2m oz proven, would return your outlay in 3 years, some payback that would be (and of course you do have all the other areas I said earlier to ignore)!
Feel free to correct me if I am wrong.