Member Info for RMR1969

Well, less than 1 hour of trading left today and I guessed the RNS for tomorrow, could be before opening, most likely post close IMO.

Just a reminder for those not in presently or looking to add -

1. 121 days since FSP formally announced (average time for an FSP is 120 days)

2. 4 weeks (exactly 1 month from tomorrow) since we were informed through official RNS that DLA Piper had been recently instructed, so clearly at that point some 12/13 weeks into the FSP process, enough progress had been made with someone for EUA to appoint one of the leading M&A lawyers in the world.

3. Tomorrow marks the end of the month in terms of market days so nice and 'neat', tomorrow is also a Friday, also nice and 'neat'. In my experience businesses like 'neat' timeframes - 4 weeks ( a period), a month, 12 weeks (a quarter), end of month dates like 30th or 31st, Fridays.....all ties up nicely for tomorrow, no one ever says "lets get it all wrapped up in 14 weeks by Tuesday the 11th" - much more likely something to say "you have 12 weeks, up until to Friday 30th October."

Fingers crossed.

Carried on looking and found what I was looking for, found in the 'General Update' dated 9th April 2020:

RUSSIAN CURRENCY DEVALUATION
Eurasia's cost of production is already in the lowest quartile of the global cost curve. The Company notes that the Russian currency has devalued against the US Dollar by c.30% since mid-January 2020 with the result, that the operating costs in US Dollar terms are reduced further.

Since then the rouble recovered a bit however it is back at the same level, maybe slightly more.......so our already very low costs of production reduced by a further 30% in dollar terms......

Whilst re reading this particular RNS I took comfort again from the comment "The company's discussions on it's projects have continued with potential buyers at and after the global mining conferences of Indaba and PDAC."

I know most LTH are aware of this but active talks were ongoing with potential buyers in early April, nearly 7 months ago, 3 months before the FSP was formally started, and most likely sometime before that........a company or more probably, several companies, are clearly very keen to get their hands on what we have. To my mind this further cements the view that once the FSP process was instigated a clear timeline would have been issued for offers, it would have been the time to start the clock ticking and get serious, and personally I cannot imagine that the timeline at that moment would have been 17 weeks or more, so IMO, since no communication has ben received suggesting a breakdown in the process, and as far as we know all parties are still at the table, an offer which is deemed reasonable and fair has already been made 'unofficially.' Once DLA Piper have received confirmation of the buyers ability to finance the deal and everything has been lined up, it will be announced.

GLA

Can somebody help me out please........

There was definitely an RNS which mentioned something about the Russian currency valuation and the positive impact it was having on the cost per ounce as extraction costs were lowered again from an already low base......anyway despite searching I cannot find it now and this thread has got me wanting to re read it........

Can anyone point me in the direction or remember what it said?

Thanks in advance.

It is indeed nice to see MF present a positive view on GGP today albeit I play little heed to anything much they report......

Anyway I was 'surprised' to read that even now they state within the write up...

"However, it could be some time before the company can generate revenues from the site. This is the hard part. The majority of mining operations fail because they can’t get the funding to progress from the exploration to the production stage. That said, the fact Greatland is already supported by sector giant Newcrest lessens the risk of failure, in my view."

'lessens the risk of failure?' - surely that should read 'eliminates the risk of failure' - does anyone honestly believe that Newcrest, after spending so much time and money on Havieron, one of the largest gold deposit finds in decades, in a period of world economic meltdown, with gold prices at the highest point ever and predicted to continue rising, are ever going to say 'you know what, we can't be bothered anymore, we're off, best of luck......'

It may take time to commercialise I accept that, but the gold isn't moving and neither is the price of gold going to drop anytime soon, IMO there is no conceivable way that NC will not support this project through to commercialisation and if they don't, someone else will step in.

I guess they are just hedging their bets and doing their usual sitting on the fence getting splinters in their a***.

Very happy with the report last night, heavily invested myself for more than a year now and will add and add as funds allow, all the way up! Presently I do not even have an exit plan, anything one considers changes every 6 weeks as updates appear.

GLA

Hi Crabby08 - do you really think that we are in the 'offers being made' stage more than 17 weeks after the FSP was started, I am not so sure, I reckon the time frame for offers has been passed, especially since we were informed about DLA Piper being appointed.

I rather think we are in the 'agreed price in principle' stage, some dotting of i's and crossing of t's to be done before we announce, mostly for the buying company to ensure their finances are in order and agree fees I suspect.

I just don't think the Board would have set a timeline this long initially.

Now, as I think about it, there is a possible situation where you could be right and it isn't a mad theory - if an initial offer period was set however due to multiple bidders constantly gazumping one another it was extended and DLA Piper were brought in to support UBS manage the whole situation..........

Wouldn't that be amazing, absolutely feasible, but maybe wishful thinking.

I have my one and only 'guess the RNS date' for tomorrow, could be pre opening or more likely post close, and I set a cautious price of 65p.

GLA

Guys

I am not a believer in the single share transaction theory regarding MM messages, however I am curious about the small trades, earlier in the week there were a large number of 6 trades, that is now 7 trades - can anyone offer a plausible explanations to what these are?

spevy - how would that work exactly?

genius, absolutely brilliant, still laughing as I write.......

iPhoneiTrade

Like you I do not believe that the RNS was a traditional 'speeding ticket' albeit the effect was similar as some people saw it that way. If it had been it would have been worded very differently IMO.

Anyway I was interested in your point 2 - you say it is AIM policy that they have to issue such an RNS, I have looked but cannot find where it states that, are you able to point me as to where I can see it.

Many thanks.

funds4future - that is a sweeping generalisation and wholly incorrect, much of what is said on here is indeed based on the facts as we know them, often extracted from the official news received from the company, there are of course sometimes more general views, thoughts and ideas which simply add to the overall richness and content.

However to say nothing is based on fact is simply wrong.

I think we all know that news is due soon, I am unconvinced that there is anything untoward happening, but we all believe the RNS could land this week so it is fairly clear that anyone shorting may think so also - 12 weeks for the FSP process, 4 weeks for the legals, end of month this Friday/Monday - so if we believe it could be coming so could others.....it is a guess but a logical one based on a reasonable timeline of events thus far.

I think it will be a fascinating week and expect the SP to perhaps pick up as the week progresses maybe to the mid 30s as people look to get in at the last minute or add to existing holdings.

While I do not believe the previous RNS was a traditional 'speeding ticket' it certainly has had that effect and so I think it will be hard to break through that price now before any new news.

I am down for a Friday RNS and share price of a cautious 65p. I remain very hopeful and committed.

just need to be wary of the spread....., minimum amounts to be made, potential to lose more - IMO

lol - I mean 49 different companies.........mixture FTSE100 and AIM, EUA and GGP are biggest holdings by some margin ATM.

Been a better day across the overall market which makes today all the more odd IMO.

Anyway was just sounding off really, I am very positive here and always have been, can't believe those corrections on RNS's though, what's that about, you would think they could get them right being so important......poor form, not that hard surely?

Monkey70, yea I have said before I am cautious with the 65p and put my reasoning on here a couple of days ago, along with the date of next Friday. One can most certainly make a case for a much higher price I admit.

I have 49 shares in my portfolio, all bar 4 are up today, 2 are basket cases to be fair - UKOG, BLOE, also hold JOG which I have a little more hope for and the final one down is EUA!

I am very positive with EUA, I think it is one of the most exciting shares on AIM which is why I have a large holding, but down on a day like today, not having that, it must be being held here by some means, I am unclear how shares are held but we are trading in such a tight range it has to be being 'managed,' I do not believe that left to normal market forces it would be so limited in movement for so many days bearing in mind everything that is going on.

So I sit here frustrated but positive, it will be hard to break the 39p level anyway since that is when we had that rascal RNS which appeared to spook a few PIs and I imagine there will be a few who bought on the rise looking to get out if we get there before the FSP announcement comes out.

Still believe in my 65p prediction with news at the end of next week so to be fair none of the above actually matters a jot!

GLA

well I guess we cannot be 100% sure what is happening but I think we do know that for the last 3 days, on 3 separate occasions someone has either opened or closed a short position on EUA with UBS, now bearing in mind the current situation with regards FSP, and the timings point I have made several times with regards 12 weeks, 4 weeks, Fridays and end of month dates - I would bet pretty large these are shorts closing.

Let's assume that there are no leaks, no investors with any inside knowledge, on this basis would you now open a short? or would you more likely close one? It would be one hell of a risk to open a short position now, in fact with no inside knowledge, it would be a mad crazy gamble which could bankrupt you overnight. I genuinely don't think that investors who short shares (love them or loathe them) are that stupid.

So I am surely thinking these are shorts closing, thats my personal view. It does seem odd that we have 3 on the bounce, not sure what that tells us except that they all have a similar view to me re possible timing of any announcement or perhaps they operate like lemmings, saw one go over and all the others have decided to follow.......

On another note, I did find Snowman100's posting history thanks to responses on here, spent a few minutes looking back over them and found it fascinating, he was truly ahead of his time, such a dreadful shame he is not here today, he would have made a very able shipmate I am sure and it would have been nice to have had his insight to support us through the difficult seas.

GLA

SunnyNShare - it does thank you yes but sadly no posts available to see, a shame.

Anyway thank you for coming back to me, I have learned something new on here with that tip from you so all good.

Best regards

I know you can look at a posters history by clicking on their moniker, however is it possible to search for an old poster where there is no recent posts to click on - point is, I would be interested to take a look at some of Snowman's messages from over a year ago - I see Ian has posted up a couple but not sure how you find them........

Thanks in advance.

Apologies I was out all day yesterday and not caught up on posts since then.

Totally agree, has happened a few times with SKIN being mentioned and Integumen, guess it will take a little time to bed in new name but it is a little frustrating......

https://www-mirror-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-british-company-claims-developed-22818818.amp

Apologies if this has already been shared.

Yea perhaps best you do. Investing clearly not for you.

Best of luck.