Member Info for RMR1969

91jonmo - I don't think you can take the trading range and assume 'lack of interest', the issue as I see it is that the shares are day by day getting into stickier and stickier hands, even those trading will be thinking about it before off loading.

LTHs like myself are merely mopping up on any little dips and adding to our investment and never selling a share, not lack of interest by any stretch.

Arsenalles

The only thing I would say is that clearly this is something that had already been signed off and agreed as a number of the cranes are already operational, and a number more already ordered, so unlikely they would meet today to 'unanimously agree' it. I would also respectfully suggest this is more an company investment than a company transaction.

I may be wrong.

Well, the way I see it is that if nothing was happening or likely to happen we would have heard something, absolutely no reason to remain quiet, just tell us what has happened and adios!

However, that is not what has happened, in fact the last communication, albeit some time ago, was positive and suggested things were moving along, we have no option to believe that for now until told otherwise.

The silence is frustrating but perhaps it is enforced, maybe they are not in a position to say anything at the moment or whilst activity remains ongoing, to be honest that is the most likely scenario based on the facts and the information and communications we have had to date.

GLA

I am a little sceptical about the MM messaging theory, however there have been a significant number of 6 and 7 share trades in the last week, I did ask once before what could be a reasonable explanation of these but no one seems to know.

I also am aware that on FreeTrade people do trade small amounts for free on very low numbers but there is no way that so many people would deal in exactly the same amount of shares surely.

There is most likely some logical reason, I would love to know what it is..........?

Peter47

I think it is has just settled here to be honest, I am less convinced that there is anything more to it than that.

The vast majority of available shares are held very tightly and will not be let go whatever happens to the price, we are left with very few reasons to trade, the spread has been pretty big.

It is found a happy equilibrium, go up above 30, a few traders sell, most investors believe it is the start of the big rise so hold even tighter, go below 30 and some who bought in later get spooked and sell, other LTHs decide to add a few more, we are really just playing around in the margins here and have been for quite a while - I think rather than it being the MMs, it is actually us investors who are keeping it here.

At the end of the day it possibly makes absolutely no difference whatsoever anyway!

SevenDragons - I think we have been here so long we think everyday could be the day - we will be right one day (hopefully)!

The NN meeting tomorrow has an interesting and rather 'unclear' agenda point which has sparked a degree of interest, it may be nothing to do with us, but it may, timelines fit and most on here (myself included) believe we can only be a short time away from some news based on everything we know and have been told to this point.

Let us have our moment of excitement if you would.....lol

yea that link works, good job SunnyNShare, clearly far more techy than me!

Thank you

apologies, the last point, 3 words starting 'O' - when you highlight them, right click then search Google, it comes up with a load of items on Mergers & Acquisitions, not merely 'transactions' as had been translated and mentioned previously, but M&A!

Someone may already have done this and I may have missed it, but right click the specific 3 words on the last line in the text and then click on search Google and see what you get........interesting!

I know people have mentioned 'transaction' etc - but if you right click just those 3 words and then search Google rather than the whole thing, see what comes up..........somethings happening here.

Whilst we are on NN, I keep thinking about the subtle but possibly key change to the RNS's we receive (see below), the wording changed in potentially a key way on August 25th, every RNS prior to that mentioned NN processing plant by name, from the 25th it was made more generic, that must have been for a reason..........why such a deliberate and specific change, someone must have requested that.

August 18th RNS (and all RNS's before this date):

"Eurasia Mining plc, the palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium and gold producing company, operating the established West Kytlim Mine in the Urals, and also the operator of the Monchetundra Project comprising two predominantly palladium open pit deposits located 3km away from Severonickel, one of Norilsk Nickel's largest base metals and PGM processing facilities, near the town of Monchegorsk on the Kola Peninsula, is pleased to provide a general update................."

Then from the 25th August:

"Eurasia Mining plc, the palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium and gold producing company, operating the established West Kytlim Mine in the Urals, and also the operator of the Monchetundra Project comprising two predominantly palladium open pit deposits near base metal and PGM processing facilities close to the town of Monchegorsk on the Kola Peninsula, is pleased to announce.........................."

At this point we would have been about 7 weeks into the FSP, far enough in for them to know at that point what the outcome was likely to be I would suggest. If NN had at that point 'won' the process, then maybe it would be prudent to remove any reference to them in future RNS's which have to be issued, ok to mention them before that perhaps, but not from that point onwards, just a thought to pass the day!

avo333 - where do you start...?

This is a massive transaction, 25 years in the making
This transaction potentially has wide ranging political and financial implications
This could be the largest TO in AIM history
Resources need to be proved up as best they can prior to any sale yo maximise SH value
There could be a bidding war

oh and there is a once in a generation world wide pandemic going on, apart from that, what the hell is holding this lot up.....?

Come on, give them a break and be patient.

Sbrace06 - Rowka is still here, just in different guises..........

tomtwit, montyboz.........maybe others

Might just be being a bit pedantic, and I have mentioned before, but I think when/if the deal is announced, the shares in issue number will be closer to 3,032m rather than 2,759m to take into account deferred shares and options outstanding.......stand to be corrected however, it seems most people on here use the current shares in issue number of 2,759. They may be right......?

Makes £1b = more like 33p

Guitarman001 - the other challenge here of course is that we really don't know what we have in terms of resources, of course we have the RNS and presentations to work off, however we know that all miners will underestimate resources initially, until it is time to sell of course, then they aim to maximise them.

We know that AP have been involved for us or possible buyers, or perhaps for both, therefore any resource number we have knowledge of is likely already out of date.

The SP just reflects current demand / supply / risk etc, it is not necessarily a sound basis upon which to build a possible buy out price from.

What we do know and hope however is that the BOD will have done everything to maximise share holder value, they will have worked hard to 'prove up' as much as they feasibly can and we also know that the buyer, whoever that may be, will be confident of what they are getting and therefore base any TO price on that rather than what the SP suggests currently.

That all said, a price will have been broadly agreed for some time I think, it may have varied by a few pence either way as negotiations have continued, but the BOD will know what they want and what they deem as fair. We are simply guessing!

A doubling, tripling or quadrupling is of course possible.

I am still with my cautious 65p.

Just another example this morning of the sort of premium that can be paid on TO.

Fully appreciate that it is a completely different scenario, sector, company etc etc, but often people on here question that companies get taken over for such premiums - more than doubled the SP overnight there.

That could easily happen here of course which would see us at the ACF valuation based on current 'depressed' price, with what is potentially on offer here, value, scarcity of resources, political desire, potential for growth based on PGM prices rising etc etc, is a doubling, trebling or quadrupling of current price so ridiculous????

If another company wants what you have they will pay for it! If several companies want it, then, well..........

Hallster - good spot, certainly a man with a strong track record and detailed knowledge of the markets and precious metals. To be one of 3 stocks he chose as top tips for 2020 is reassuring for sure, for those that don't use Twitter, when questioned why EUA, his Twitter feed states:

"Takeover situation with an extreme undervalued company"

Well I guess we all knew that, nevertheless, good to see him seeing that too, he has more knowledge than many of us on here for sure and a strong track record of identifying opportunities.

Even if you believe the last RNS was a 'speeding ticket' (and I have my doubts for reasons suggested previously), then we could be looking at a share price above 60p. Why?

1. ACF report suggested 54-60p with flanks discounted due to non issuance of licence at that point, the licence has now been issued. (metal prices have increased from that point too)
2. The 'speeding ticket' (if indeed it was that) was issued at close to 40p, there is usually a premium added to takeovers, for this sector it averages 50-55% - that would take us to 62p area from 40p
3. 65p values us at around $3.2b taking into account shares in issue, deferred shares and options outstanding, an exchange rate of 1.29% and the % owned of both WK and MT.

So IMO a few reasons to believe mid 60s is feasible and realistic, it could well be more. I would be reasonably happy with this if it happened pre Xmas and allowed me to divest into the undoubted bargains we already have and will continue to have in the coming weeks.......

All my own opinion, just guesses based on what we do know, nothing more. I think even PATT could even be persuaded that this is a possibility.

Hi Crabby

Sorry, wasn't me I am afraid although I can remember someone did post that.

RMR

Well it looks like no RNS today then, my one and only guess based on some loose logic, but never mind there is still Monday of course!

No more predictions from me on when news may land, as we all really know, it will be when it will be, I just take comfort in the fact that nearly 18 weeks into the process, the FSP remains ongoing, and if a deal was not to be done we would most surely have found out by now, add to that the obvious and significant 'change' in circumstances which required DLA Piper to be instructed around 4-5 weeks ago, and I remain very optimistic of a positive outcome at some point in the future.

We certainly saw today how quickly things can move, up 10% in minutes, most definitely feels like a tightly coiled spring. The big buys were interesting, regularly throughout the day and IMO from the same buyer, unlikely to have several buying the same amount in such close proximity on one day.

A good close in all honesty in a poor week for the markets, I remain happy that I have a good chunk in here.

Have a great weekend all.

lol - it's obviously a guess, but there is logic to it, timelines and dates all line up really well so I have long thought tomorrow is a strong candidate.

It struck me more than ever when I wrote the post how significant the DLA Piper appointment was, not just because of who they are, but the fact that such a change would only have happened when circumstances had altered, something specific happened which initiated our BOD to appoint them, and so obviously it was to do with moving into a new phase. I believe I know what that change was, an offer had been agreed in principle, that's my view.

Anyone who comes on here suggesting all doom and gloom needs to address that point for me, clarify why DLA Piper would be appointed 12 weeks into an FSP if the process was not developing positively. If they can't answer that for me I have no interest in what they have to say.

Lawyers like that don't get appointed on a whim, imagine calling them up "hi, is that DLA Piper? great, can we appoint you to act for us at your extraordinarily large hourly rates, sorry what was that, do we have someone interested in buying us? no we don't, no one is interested, we are in an FSP but have had no takers, we just want to appoint you so we can RNS it and so our share holders believe we are doing something, is that ok?" - DLA Piper - "yea no problem that will be great, we would love to get involved with a dodgy Russian scam on AIM, it's exactly the sort of business we deal in, does wonders for our reputation as the world's leading M&A lawyer, thanks for thinking of us, sign us up"

Anyway, keep up the great work TillyWhiz, love your posts, appreciate they may not be for everyone, I think only those who have been here a while can really appreciate them, we have needed some laughs and humour from time to time and you have certainly helped with that.......!