Open Offer Numbers Game15 May 2019 09:29
Open Offer Numbers Game
In less than a week we will know how many have taken-up their full entitlement in the open-offer and what proportion of any additional shares will be allocated to those that requested them.
The abbreviation OO may be quite appropriate and most will get a big fat O (zero) Why do I say this? Because when you start to number crunch various scenarios you may draw the same conclusion.
On any placing there are always some who do not take up their full allocation, possibly because of inertia, lack of funds or they don’t want any more shares. You also get some who are greedy, very greedy and ask for more, a lot more and that is where could be an issue if too many apply for too many.
When you look at our new website and see the percentage holdings under AIM Rule 26 you will notice that all the “disclosed” holdings come to 4,484,456,001. Let us assume that all 4.484 billion take up their full entitlement then that would only leave 847,765,133 which would be available for excess allocation. That is about 18.9% (say 20% or one fifth) so if you requested an additional 10 million you may get 2 million (10m *20% = 2m)
But if you look at the shares available in the open-offer after taking into consideration just two individuals (Antos & Mr CMR) it is a little different. If these two apply for their full entitlement they would receive 1,159,068,564 and that would leave only 4,173,152,570. Then if Mr Freeman applies the balance is 4,099,492,909 and if only 50% of the owners of these 4 billion shares apply for their full allocation in full then that would leave about 2,049,746,455 available for excess allocation. Now if Antos, Mr CMR & Mr Freeman apply for the same again as their disclosed holding that would take out 1,232,728,225 and only leave 817,018,230 for everyone else who would like additional shares.
Now you may think it would be unfair if the three above were to be allocated an additional 1,232,728,225 but is it? Why would the company not “reward” “Loyal large shareholders”? (Life is unfair) So on the above scenario just over 817 million shares would then be available for “ordinary shareholders” These ordinary shareholders could have taken up in the open offer about 2 billion shares (50%) and if they all requested an equal amount to their current shareholdings then they may request 2 billion (in reality I believe they will apply for a lot more) On 2 billion and only having 817 million (using the above figures) would mean they would only get about 39.86% (say 40%) so if you requested an additional 10 million you may get 4 million (10m *40% = 4m)
You can make your own assumptions as to how many will apply for their open-offer entitlement, how many additional shares they may apply for using the percentage you yourself have applied for and see what numbers you come up with.
RKB
PS now you must not factor in a figure of 1.66 billion by subtracting this figure to balance the arithmetic as this is not permitte