Member Info for rizq786

avacta has found a bit a base around the 1.20 mark. Its gone up and down last few days by 20/30p.
so now the conviction on the investment to kick in: as it's going to be very wild in the next few days and weeks.
CEO said in the interview post placing that there's so much news to look forward to and he named them:
1. We have been doing live sample trials of BAMS test for more than a month both here and usa following the very positive prototype development within clinical range. Don't really know the demand or potential but it will add sales and also market affirmer platform.
2. It is more than 3 weeks since we heard of the affirmer neutralising therapy, they are looking for a partner, whatever the outcome it again demonstrates the benefits of affirmers. If we get a JV then that is a blockbuster news. We have a precedent of VIR & GSK $250 million equity deal.
3. LFD test got a working prototype announcement on 24th June, analyst said 3 weeks optimisation and CEO said after a week couple of weeks so anytime next week. This is obviously the biggie because the demand as mentioned repeatedly could be 100 million+ test per month. Sona sets a precedent here where upon a small scale validation it added more than $300 million to its mcap. We are obviously behind in timescale but have certain advantages over them: affirmer more specific, quicker to produce, more stable and cheaper and we get to learn from them as we work both work with cytivia.
4. CEO Said emphatically few weeks ago in an interview that they were looking at other forms of testing. We haven't heard anything about one yet so potential news.
5. Said in the interview that they have a few other diagnostics which have passed the validation process so potential news on that front.
and more....
10 million for covid and 35 million for other work so plenty of capital to put to use now.
Assuming we receive good news then the we are in for a news rich period.
fantastic article on twitter about Ruanne their due dilligence and their investment strategy ( have a read)
I am long in here so I'm looking at slightly bigger and longer picture here. If you wish to trade this then obviously your outlook maybe different.

Good luck all

Having read the final results i have taken the decision to reduce my holding here. I still have have hope thats why i have left 1/4 in here which i will leave for next few years as the asset is a monster and the sector is in demand. My fear is that they are having difficulty progressing things at pace that can really benefit us and also the coidic partnership hasn't shown much tangible progress. I'm comfortable to wait for the next tangible progress to decide if i should invest further.

good luck all

There's been a lot of talk lately of selling when the price is up and buying back cheaper. Sounds good but just not possible for everyone or all the time.

you either trade the swings or you invest for longer term, but it being AIM you have to slice some EVEN WHEN LONG.

When people trade they normally spend more time on boards, charts and would be monitoring many shares for entry and exits etc. They will also most likey follow other traders for quick thumbs upetc. I would presume they wont be able to research as thoroughly as some long term investor in a share would. They will most likely look to short term compound strategy: 7 x 10% gains almost gives you 100% profit. And that strategy requires a lot of screen time, quick movements and emotional resilience. Good if you can do it. But remember a lot lose money so it's easier said than done.
The other method is of longer term strategy, where you look for shares that have real long term prospects and you research the fundamentals. You have to be prepared to look at all the key investing points: sector, management, cash positions and many other things. You will have to spend a lot time researching but wont be micro-managing but instead following key milestones which strengthen your investment regardless of what the share price does in the short term. Exit strategy on them are clear though further down the road. There are many examples of that too in Aim: GGB, SOLG, BMN. But you have to slice because Aim is very volatile.

How you deal with your money is your call. And how you view AVCT, does it have real mega potential that can be unlocked or is it more a sentiment driven investment where you go in and out quickly, is also your call.

good luck all

Have to say I not seen this syle of fundraising before. Fundraising to keep the lights on is never nice, whereas fundraising to accelerate adding value is taken somewhat positively.

Positives for me is that the raise is small and staged with the option of cancelling or even buying back subscribed shares(how can they buy back when they don't have money?) and it basically cleares the fear of 'massive' dilution. No warrants or other things to cause issues with SP.

Now that the cash for running the company is sorted let's hear what the project is doing.

They did say June so 2 trading days left.

Thanks for the notes guys, Much appreciated.
People on Aim just don't follow investment cases, instead want to hear short term news with specific words. I haven't listened and as soon as its up i will. Look what's come out of this event for AVCT:

The demand is in almost 100 million per month from lower to middle income countries for the next 12 - 18 months( Globally i would assume much much more and they would want to get it middle income countries so they can fight the virus from spreading) Now next time you hear someone say the virus is dying we're too late. Here's your answer.

Another question you'll hear is can they do it, can they make a test that is fit for purpose? Its hard but they seem confident, especially AVCT . Theyre saying this after few weeks of working and overcoming challenges and it seems everyone is confident to extremely confident to achieving it. And they are confident because they have the right scientific knowledge, mechanism and infrastructure in place.

The other question you'll hear is of competition? Who will be first? new test coming on? With the medical requirements in place it won't be easy but that's not the answer. The answer is to help combat this disease and open economies this LFT mass testing is crucial so all these players are not competitors but collaborators and will support other potential developers too.
The other question you'll hear if it will be of use if the virus mutates? They are well prepared to come together and deliver for any further or future pandemics.

The company shares were only in the 20s very recently? The affirmer tech is a disruptive tech with so much scope and potential it is still being explored and developed further. The market for this is in excess of 100 billion and if as the promise of affirmer ( that they are quicker, cheaper, efficient, safer and other benefits compared to antibodies) is translated into hard proof of concepts with real world products developed in quick time then the industry take notice. And in America they really support these disruptive techs don't they with Mcap which is staggering. That's why Connifer management were mentioned as strategic investors who will hopefully get this tech to where it can realise its potential.

good luck all

when the sp is down you can't see company's potential and when the sp is up you can't see its risks. Learn to see potential when it's down and risks when its up.

People are saying this company should deliver the test as if there's no work involved or challenges. If they had the test to market do you think the price will be here? Covid sales will mean cash but what can they do with that cash will turn this company into a multi billion company.
The affirmers as a reagent or replacement for antibody market is 100billion
the Pre-cision platform is tapping into a combined market of excess of 50 billion
further work theyre doing is tapping into multi billion market
and the diagnostic ( as shown here with covid 19) could be big too.

NCYT is cash rich as they're making sales, their value would've multiplied if they were ready to tap into other lucrative markets. AVCT can so therefore think were it can go. So on the potential alone it justifies this mcap but if it delivers the tests then?

Good luck all

good luck all

That's why the long term future is good, but most importantly for me I feel my investment case is a good one. Alistair said they can take any generic treatment and use the pre ision tech.
Now all the promising things that they were working can be accelerated.
We are in a news rich period as per rns and these are some potential news:
More partnerships and distributions currently in discussion
News related to Adetrix BAMS testing
News related to lateral flow test
News related to covid neutralising affirner
IND application for drugs

So yes patience is needed but the company ais well funded to accelerate commercial possibilities and shareholder value. The wild swings unfortunately are part of the Aim territory.

It was a painful day looking at the Sp of Avct, but the covid sector was all impacted and the wider markets were not so bullish either. I can't say what tomorrow will be like but i feel there are many new investors who would not have experienced such wild depreciation before and are really going to stress.

Aim market is very risky and one should learn that wild swings is part of it. At this moment some might start to think if they will ever see the highs again or wheres the bottom. In Aim sentiments can change instantly what looks dead and buried can suddenly jump. And if the fundamentals are good there is good chance of recovery and making money but short term things are based on sentiments, market mechanics etc.

go back to the company and see if it has the potential to deliver, is the wider market conducive, is it managed effectively, is it funded to meet its needs and most importantly does it have something tangible to deliver to create shareholder value and has it got near term news to support investor sentiment.

good luck all

I said before it will be very turbulent and up and down here. That's what will happen. Need to cancel the noise, both positive and negative, and focus on the company news.
Covid and Lockdown is costing the global economy trillions, industries like tourism and flights are suffering badly and even after the virus has gone away testing will not stop until people have been vaccinated. How does Avacta benefit as a company?
The covid play will make money
The affirmer platform will be marketed worldwide

Their other therapeutic treatments will get more focus due to the current cash injection as well as future cash flow.

They just raised 48 million at 5% discount to the 30 day average price. No warrants attached.

Just in the covid space think how diverse and important Avcts offering are: antigen POC lateral flow test, BAMS new testing method as well covid neutralising therapeutic potential.

Agree or disagree, buy or sell but read and listen to what's on offer and make your decision.
Don't rush into your decision.

Thrusday is presentation so have a look.

Good luck all

I also think it's Glen who are the issue as zioc has no historical value and they're not ingerested in developing either. Also the value of Zanaga is not too big for them as compared to us so that's why we are making all the moves to either get some development going or making it more saleable.
But as Jay said the resource is too big not to attract interest. IMO even if they went for the small scale of 3mtpa that will still be very profitable. Let's see what the June update tells us.

When you invest you want to make money and not lose it. Biggest and quickest way of losing money is chasing things you don't research and jump in. Either you get lucky (infrequent!) or you get stick and lose money by selling low.

I don't look for massive gains but one that can potentially double ot triple in a couple of years but most importantly one where I feel my risk of losing it is low. No guarantees in investment of course.
Exploration is extremely risky but with massive potential rewards. Or new startups are similar as they can fail.
With what I'm seeing with DMTR I see a a real potential of multi bag but one that poses lesser risk of capital wipe out.
They successfully passed their early stage of development and thenn validated their product with industry players. Then moved onto commercial stage and have payinh clients.
They've started to work with big industry players as they validate further and improve it further with integration.

The question of dilution is there. I know Mark said we're funded for 12 months but on Aim if CEOs are approached by city players then they don't say no. But that's not my concern.

A novel digital platform addressing a global multi billion market with major players on side with recurring revenue and at a market cap of 15million with 12months of funding in place.

What's not to like. As always DYOR and best of luck.

Am i understanding the statement correctly?

"bookbuild that was multiple times oversubscribed"

How much interest was there?
At a price of 1.20 it is like a second chance for many as a few would've felt they missed it at over 2 quid.

This extreme interest is going to make this a mega rollecoster and very turbulent. Rampers, derampers, misinformed, traders will be trying to play this.

Research now before the news so you know what you should do, not what someone else wants you to do.

Close look at today's rns and the investor presentation along with mcnultys paper is good recap.
Good luck all. Hope everyone makes money here.

I'm in Odx too and that has great potential but some info is incorrect in that they can really capture a bi market share, they can't. Odx as part of the consortium their role is manufacturing and their potential scale up is 5illion test per month. Which is still huge but at Avct their scale up and market capture now can be through medusa19, cytiva, adeptrix, commercial reagents supply and business contracts.

It's costing the global economy trillions so I don't see them not scaling up testing to get things movinh, even if it costs billions.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

The management is uber bullish here and really going for it. This acceleration is very positive as lung as they can deliver.

The new things in the covid play is further distribution agreement, a diagnostic tool (I'm thinking they're probably thinking of having their own testing kit) further reagents agreements. So much to deliver and the best thing is they can really scale up now as they don't have much limitations now.

They have the UK market medusa19 & avacta test, USA via cytiva and other and global through medusa plus more distribution and agreement hinted to.

Hundreds of millions of test per month. Testing will last till well into 2021 (hopefully by then we will have vaccine, doesn't matter about loss of business life is more important)

They are really going for it, no ifs or buts, can they really deliver is the question.

I'm hopeful. Good luck all

I encourage everyone to read extraders comment here.
In my opinion there's great interest here but everyone's interest and leveraging tactics are different.
Glencore has its interest, options and leveraging tactics, the chinese have interest, options and their leveraging in terms of infrastructure build as well as being the biggest consumer, CongoB have their interest of the mine as wider development with China and debt issues with Glencore.
Poor old ZIOC stuck in the middle lol perhaps that's why trying to go for the EPP whilst the bigger boys sort out their complicated leveraged options.

But just imagine if it was written in an rns that we've had low offer.

Just at that the share will rocket as anyone who knows the iron ore industry knows Zanaga is not a 100 million asset.

They're up for sale or Jv that's for sure

Just don't really know the inner workings, but interest has to be there based on what's been reported lately.

We have iron ore is and lots of it and very high grade too.
Either the big guys want it or they don't.
If they don't (bad news) then we have to do it as no other option. So either 1mpt which is more feasible even for little zioc or 12pmt much harder offcourse. So options are there.

If they want it then who wants it?
If its not the Chinese then they need the port and this has been made a better option for them now.

If the Chinese want it then it has made a quicker option for them now. But the Chinese were not going to just agree ant price they would bargain based on their control of port etc.

So all in this has has given zioc some bargaining space.

To be fair well say all three above are possible,
No interest
Chinese interest
Non Chinese interest.

When the sp is down that's when you have to think harder and research more to check that the investment is worth it or not and most importantly can you make money here?

Never fall in love with a share as every share gives you can equal chance of making money.

E.g, Your investment is worth 1000 now (that's your capital now, loss or profit) with this 1000 where can you make money is the question now. Is there another company that has better chance or do you think this has a better chance to make money for you

Me personally I will keep my money here as I know this company, their prospects, why the sp is depressed and what news I await.

Think hard and make a choice because its your hard earned money.
Good luck all

We have 3 big collaborations Atm and Astrazeneca is the biggest of Pharma.
There's also a lot of interest right now in the AI Pharma industry
Once the MMs have their fill watch they'll raise it without news
And of we have further strong news then it will go up quickly as the MMs don't have much shares atm and that is one reason for the widespread

Also look at what's possible here and sit and wait. You can't gwt into every share nor can you tune the highs and lows all the time but find a share that has very good people, potential and the right industry and at the right curve.

Good luck to all