Member Info for rizq786

The west gets oil and gas from Russia, Germany upto 30%. Uk and US do to. Their sanctions were selective to not impede gas etc as they still are importing it now.

Far have done absolutely nothing wrong by having commercial relations and will not by continuing to get what they need from Russia just as West is. But they've done the sensible thing by stating there are alternatives and they will most likely pursue them if needed.

It's good to hear that everything is progressing well and they are not impacted. In fact, the cost of things will be down so they'll make savings due to currency depreciation.

We clearly know that there is big selling which has affected the price, but the company fundementals have not changed and the work is clearly ongoing in terms of drilling as well as the feasability study.
The company is funded with the VB investment to carry out the above work.

Also the small plant is active and with the byproducts will be making a decent amount.

Yes as far as the full scale development plan is concerned then VB have a big investment and if they choose not to, which I doubt they will not, then by then other suitors can come on board. Remember once the bankable FS is done then the investment case is clear. Also why would kazak banks not want to lend to their own country developments?

This asset is located in the south of kazak and away from inhabited area so the political risk is not as severe as some may fear.

Obviously the neighbouring situation is dangerous.

Can you explain how you come to that conclusion that VB value the company at 150 mil

agree, the prize is so big that if the company can get a deal then it won't be in the millions it could be in billions as the deal with simadou showed. These are very expensive resources and with a lot of capex involved ( zioc 2bn capex) so is not straight forward and is binary nothing may come out of it. But a bit of exposure here can be very rewarding if they can pull it off and if not then you havent lost much. Dont over invest here its been a very very slow mover.

This deal is transformational and if you read the rns when the market is closed you will see why:
Mick davies appointed as CoB and you will know this guy is a miner at heart and was not happy with how was replaced at xtrata taken over by glencore so he has proving to do as money is not an issue.
Secondly with access to 300 million they would have had many many opportunities so it must be compelling economics to take a stake in far

The small plant is making good progress and will do even more From May

Buying options from 24p to 75p so shows that those numbers are realistic for the development of the main mine

And can list more but think about what is at play here

Very excited but there is always risk

The management seem quite confident of an attractive deal as Nick said during the CC they will be looking for much higher price when the price was around 5.5p. Also the copper price has risen considerably and they've had a Chinese approach. So in terms of a deal it looks very promising. Also they are looking to produce at current prices and they can be cash surpluses of approx 25 mil usd which is very significant.

The real plus is that for investors who get in early once they start producing they could add so much value if they retain some licence areas.

I'm happy to be in from the 2p range.

I think he may have referred to this article
https://www.dnevnik.si/1042940421
Which says these litigation can cost hundreds of millions. I think its more the risk of potential litigation cost and award if found guilty that can mount to big sums of the claims was substantial damage.

Awards are based on merit but since we are negotiating directly and amicably I would happily take 10 million if settled very quickly.

This internal dispute has been ongoing for years perhaps where AST felt they were being dealt umvavourably but the legal dispute was filed on 23rd July this year.

This then got litigation financiers interested as mentioned in their previous update. Obviously not taken further because the Government has agreed to negotiate directly for a possible amicable settelment. The Gov would have speculatively asked for legal advice at the possible case against them and possibly see a good case against them. And all the negative publicity along with legal fees can be quite damaging. So now they're negotiating directly.

In other words trying to settle out of court.

Why try to settle out of court if they thought case was going to be weak.
Direct negotioans and out of court settelment can be quick and less expensive compared to court way.

Our bargain chip is that the asset has had 50 million spent on it. We will not get that sort of money but our argument is shareholders' investment has been destroyed. So even 5 million gives us more than our current mcap with assets in for free.

Risk is that the board settle for low offer or theytake a dangling carrot from the Government.

Market cap hassen risen very much so there's decent upside and less risk.

Would have been different if our mcap was over 10 million on this speculation. Current mcap is around 4 million.

Long term don't know, but short to medium term looks good.

Good luck all

I'm struggling with what investors are missing here?

They were in 'dispute' and now advanced to 'direct negotiations with government' that is a massive step up and the talk of potential amicable settlement spells out willingness from the government.

How much is the question and the risk here?

warrant holders and placees selling will create volatility I'm sure.

Things do look good here.

Exactly they are with the Condor which are the government set up validation programme.

Lfd and bams are probably at different stages but they're there.

Avcta's lfd and the BAMS test are both with Condor at their respective phases so it is with the government validation setup. We are not going have the test ready in the next couple of weeks so the government has to employ something in the meantime as the cases are rising and we're having localised outbreaks so these available tests are good fit for time being because these capacity and slightly quicker result is better than nothing. Also gives Gov some breathing space and some control over the virus. There is no I dependant validation because none have been. We are pretty much in the game and top horse because the need is rapid POC tests with high specs and independently validated. We're not there yet but those tests from Gov need a bit of perspective.

Good luck all

It is beyond doubt that the virus is here for the next year or two and instant saliva based testing is the place to be.
One point of consideration that i've picked up is that the call for LFT is two fold: first is the mass screening and safety to work side which even at lower sensitivity may work as they can be supplemented by the other tests, but the demand from the hospitality and cross border dealings will require the much more sensitive ones.

So whilst we will capture a decent market even with decent specs but if it is what they said they're after then the demandfor our product will be off the scale.

good luck all

with all the emerging info around poc tests with S/S requirement, cost, ease of manufacture and ease of use, it will be safe to assume that AVACTA will be the best all round test package. It can be the 'best value test kit'.

good luck all

I think there is consensus to say that the virus is not going away and everyone world over is planning on dealing with the flu season as that season will be more create more problems than the one we encountered.

secondly if you look at the statements coming out from reports and officials it seems that rapid antigen testing is the biggest need for the winter and requirement will be 100s of millions of tests per month. If I'm honest when our CEO said 100/200 million tests per month is what's being touted i was a bit sceptical, but seems he was correct and it maybe more. The need for Rapid test is such that they're suggesting compromising on the sensitivity as long as its cheap and available so can be tested frequently. AVCT have few advantages over competitors: the cheaper the better, our test price from the presentation was approx $2 manufacture and even in Rockefeller report we were in the low cost bracket and we can sell to gov at 15 or lower ( sona test is at $40 approx and the E25Bio test with a sensivity of 50% is approx $3/4 to manufacture). Second is the producibility as the reagents required are not as easy to get as the affirmers are; third advantage is the specificity is already in the clinical range in the sample prototype and it has the support of condor which means it meets certain level for it it be supported; third is the Medusa19 partnership as that will capture the direct to consumer market ( you can imagine that being a very lucrative market and perhaps the requirement for that will be slightly more) and lastly the cruiser market identified with INETGUMEN.
Also add in the fact that government guidelines change so whilst they may drop the sensitivity requirement now, the may demand it in the future. Also of note will be that when we slightly get better control over the virus through testing, tracking and isolating lot of the lesser performing products will be dropped and only the best will have a longer life.

So therefore get the best product out there which ticks all boxes so we can attract GOV & HEALTHCARE, B2B, AND D2C markets together and our tests become future proof and has the potential to be last test standing.

good luck all.

Today's progress shows where we are with developments and that we have made progress since last update both for BAMS and LFD. We are working towards clinical validation with CONDOR.
I am happy that there's progress but i am a bit unhappy with speed of progress. I would like a bit more clarity as to what discussions are happening around the full set up, collaborations, manufactures, with regards to these tests. We have been told that these are ongoing so keep us informed because what was supposed to be news rich period is proving to be a lag. Most importantly i would like to know if we are still on course for tests to be in summer.

I normally don't talk or respond to other plats but here is constant reference to SNG. Need to get a real understanding of prospects here and there. As of now SNG mcap is above Avct mcap.
SNG was hanging around the 30p mark for a good few weeks and it was a binary option. If trials successful very good if not then a long road ahead. Secondly people are looking at remdesvir which was taken up by USA and its sales and saying this is better so therefore more sales etc.
This was a small scale trial of 100 and there will be further trials and then you will have regulatory approvals etc. So when will sales take place? Sales won't be anytime before winter. Given that drugs sales are much more lucrative than diagnostics. Avct are targeting to bring test out before end of summer.
They will say it will be bought, possible but no guarantee and what price.

What's the competition out there? I know of 3 but I haven't followed SNG too much to know of it. Here it has the potential to be among the very best based on speed, accuracy, cost etc.

What happens if further trials don't bring the desired results? Avct have 4 covid plays and have two other mega divisions of affirmer platform and precision platform as backup if covid fails. I can't see it but it's always sensible to allocate risk.

I'm not deramping, like I said earlier it's such a good result for SNG and the world and we should be happy because it adds much benefit.

But talking of SNG here is poor form and even more so were you deramp one for the other.

Good luck SNG and Avct holders.

We need to celebrate Aim success because it has many positives. Firstly it demonstrates the market can produce true successes as opposed to ramping rubbish. Secondly it creates more liquidity with profits ( last I checked Avct is blue today) which can be profits from sng in here. Also its good for UK as an economy and centre of academic and commercial excellence(with post covid economy and brexit) we will need these element to our armour.

Sng rise today has just shown again that sentiment with covid 19 is still here so long as result are good.
As far as Avct is concerned it's got its hands in 4 covid plays: the biggest is Lfd test, second is Bams test then we have potential affirmer therapy followed by waste detection.

Our bad side has been we've been without hard news (such as commercial success or orders etc) and have waited slightly longer than would've hoped for on some news. But the good of it is that we're due so much news so they can be frequent and proving they're good it can create a healthy run for the sp. But a blockbuster news can put light under the sp. And in the case of a damp news then the advantage is we have a variety of covid plays and the mega cancer division will provide number of life lines.

Good luck all

Avacta are in a very good position with the rocker fella report suggesting usa needing millions of weekly testing, the UK govt aspiring for 500k testy per day and the rest of the world needing testing too. What also puts Avacta in a good position is that report are suggesting 4 positives for us: Saliva based testing might be better than nasal swab; secondly the sensitivity is in a range that Avacta believe will surpass; the ease of use and speedy results are extremely desirable and lastly the cheaper they are the better for everyone. If you read the reports out there you'll find that Avacta tick all boxes not all the providers can do that.

The other issue of medusa19 being linked with bohoo is so tentative that is ridiculous for suggestion. Firstly Boohoo are not the direct culprits it's a company they use, secondly boohoo and meduasa19 are separate companies and on the commercial world big players have so many varied interests that you'll rarely be able to find a totally clean company. Many big players have been involved with various scandals. The biggest company being Amazon read about their treatment of employees. Doesn't mean you don't stand for moral values of course you should. But using it here as a deramp is blatant for all.

As for exit points with all the pipeline for Avacta once they start making money from covid diagnostics it will hopefully fuel other cash generation pipelines whoch will hopefully reflect in the share price.

Obviously there's so much going on here and requires a lot of your own research.

Good luck all

That's why I believe it's important to understand the value of each and every company rns. Given this is soft news it doesn't have the hard details or financial metrics which move the sp on its own. But when the share will move the first group to add value to these partnerships or deals would be the rampers. The market will also attribute value when one product is taken over the line because then the many potentials translates into possible opportunities as you've demonstrated you can pull a deal off. Avacta haven't really pulled of there potential opportunities yet so I can understand the market waiting. But just one hard deal and we will be looked at differently.

Placing is at a heavy discount so that hurts but i knew the possibility of a fundraise was always there with AIM companies. The company hasn't given an exciting reason for the raise ( like pursuing a deal or so) but it's well funded now. Will they raise further who knows, you can never say no in AIM.
The company mentioned Norvatis, 10 global biomedical company, "it has provided DigitalGlassware™ to a top 10 global pharmaceutical company, Novartis, and is finalising a collaboration agreement with them, building on previously announced collaborations with AstraZeneca, the University of Nottingham, the University of Leeds and Cancer Research UK.

So two takeaways from this: the company is collaborating with big companies which will help with data and know hows. secondly the companies that they highlighted are being pursued for collaboarions.

This one was a long one for me, so will take the good and the bad and review investement case accordingly.