2015 stil looks very good21 Jan 2015 09:46
VSA Capital this morning still expect a PBT of £5.5m for 2015 based on the output already sold - this equates to around 3.75p EPS....
They have a 49p target price:
"Alkane Energy (ALK LN)#
Alkane Energy (ALK), the UK gas-to-power producer, has released a pre-close trading update for the period ended 31 December 2014.
• Electricity output (CMM and Power Response) was c200GWh, +4.2% YoY (2013: 192GWh), VSA FY estimate was 230GWh.
• Average electricity sales price was £52/MWh, -1.9% YoY (2013: £53/MWh), VSA FY estimate was £53/MWh.
• As of 31 December 2014, 82% of 2015 output contracted at an average price of £52/MWh (As of 31 December 2013, 59% of 2014 output at £53/MWh)
• FY 2014 results will be published 11 March 2015. Board expects revenue to be c£18m (-14% on our forecast of £20.9m) and an adjusted PBT of £3.25-£3.5m (-16.7%-22.6% on our forecast of £4.2m)
VSA Comment
Headline financial figures are certain to deliver share price weakness today. From an H1 adjusted PBT of £0.5m, there was little room for error in H2 if FY forecasts were to be hit. A late start for the upgraded capacity at Wheldale and Shirebrook combined with a mild winter, which reduced the number of STOR calls (-56% YoY), impacted results significantly.
However, ALK made significant progress in 2014 in its power response business through acquisitions (10MW Wheldale, 49MW Carron Energy) and developing its organic pipeline, supported by the award of Capacity Mechanism agreements concerning the development of 46MW of new generation capacity to be completed by winter 2018. In CMM, ALK will drill two CMM licence sites in 2015 (Stoke, Markham Main) and the company has also applied for a number of new CMM licences as part of the 14th Onshore Licensing Round.
The current weak electricity prices is predominately an issue for ALK’s coal mine methane base load output, although it does also impact STOR/winter peak-load pricing.
However, ALK has locked in a much higher proportion of this year’s output than it did last year and even has 30% of its 2016 output sold at £51/MWh. In power response, the related fall in gas prices has helped to preserve margins. Average 2015 electricity price is currently c£43/MWh (having been in the 50s for most of 2014) with 2016 pricing currently c£45/MWh, demonstrating the advantages of ALK’s forward pricing strategy and also highlights that fact that 2016 provides the most near-term risk, not 2015.
For 2015, we would expect a significant jump in output as Maltby (down for maintenance for three months in FY 2014) and other acquired assets make a FY impact (VSA est: 230GWh). Given the level of output already forward sold, we expect an adjusted PBT of £5.5m for FY 2015.
We retain our BUY recommendation but, having made certain adjustments to our model (including reducing average selling price