Member Info for rivaldo

The order book is galloping ahead, and remember that the post period end earnings-enhancing Full Circle acquisition should add £5.4m+ of EBITDA this year.

The increase in AMP8 water infrastructure expenditure is astonishing:

"we are pleased to note that Ofwat's Draft Determination anticipates a total spend of £88bn. This marks an increase of over £37bn from AMP7, and of which, £35bn has been committed to investment in new infrastructure, representing a considerable increase on the £11bn investment in new infrastructure through AMP7"

The CP7 Rail maintenance budget has also increased by a substantial 9% to £31.9 billion, and we know from past experience that new Rail control periods always start slowly and ramp up quickly.

RNWH are now wholly focussed on maintenance and renewals having disposed of Walter Lilly, and with increased involvement in 5G, nuclear decomissioning, airports, renewables, electricity grid works, EV charging etc their core sectors are only going to grow.

Nicely solid Q3 results, helping the nine months' EPS up 11% to 3.6c.

There's also almost $5m in the bank after $1.1m of buybacks.

Most importantly the outlook remains positive short and long-term, with 5G, defence and irrigation/water conservation all key global sectors for investment for the foreseeable future:

- "Q4 has begun well"

- new antenna solution now moving into pre-production

- MWE's own wireless irrigation controller being introduced

- Indian 5G sales rising on "new orders from a leading cellular service provider"

- "Increased demand for military antennas globally"

- Summit expected to have an improved Q4 for a number of reasons

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/mti-wireless-edge-MWE/share-news/MTI-Wireless-Edge-Limited-Q3-2024-Financial-Results-and-Directorate-Change/94976671

DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH RAISES JET2 PRICE TARGET TO 2385 (2240) PENCE - 'BUY'

and:

UBS RAISES JET2 PRICE TARGET TO 1850 (1700) PENCE - 'BUY'

Plus more good PR this morning:

Https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-jet2-iqe-breedon-cvs-group-norcros/a2455084?re=126121&refea=218441&link_id=1763776

"No turbulence at Jet2, says AJ Bell

Record half-year results from Jet2 (JET2) delivered a smooth landing for investors as the package holiday group balances profitability with well-priced breaks.

The Citywire Elite Companies AA-rated company said it was on track to beat full-year guidance after the results showed revenues climbed 15% to £5bn and pre-tax profit rise 16% to £772m in the six months to the end of September.

‘Price still remains a determining factor in people’s decision making and Jet2 seems to have got the balance right between protecting its own profitability and still offering reasonable value for its customers,’ said analyst Russ Mould.

Jet2’s confidence in the outlook was marked with a ‘meaningful’ 10% increase in the dividend to 4.4p.

‘The company’s hedging of fuel and currency exposure into 2025 gives both it and its shareholders decent visibility as it flies into next year,’ said Mould.

‘The company’s strong balance sheet and consistent cash generation also means it has a buffer to guard against future turbulence.’"

Looks like a low-ball offer designed to take advantage of the current market climate.

Media Concierge have evidently been buying without declaring they've done so - per today's RNS they now have 74,354,075 shares, up from the 6th August holding of 68,454,075 per NWOR's web site.

Hopefully Aberforth etc will hold out for more and perhaps other offers will follow - here's the full major shareholder list at 6th August:

Media Concierge (Holdings) Ltd* 68,454,075 25.58%

Aberforth Partners 52,000,425 19.43%

Alasdair Locke 25,632,627 9.88%

David Montgomery** 19,231,631 7.41%

Rockwood Strategic Plc 13,575,000 5.07%

Axiom Media Holdings Ltd 12,982,187 5.00%

Zeus forecast 5p EPS this year, up 28% from last year.

That's a PEG of only 0.59, which is bargain territory in itself.

The P/E of 16.6 might be considered ambitious if taken on its own - until you take into account the current £4m+ cash pile, which is forecast to rise to £5.1m, i.e 45% of the current £11.2m m/cap.

Of course (and hopefully) a decent proportion of that cash will likely be spent on earnings-enhancing acquisitions to convert into fully fledged security centres.

So imo there's still good upside from here. Zeus have a current fair value of 92p with upside to 119p, and as CSSG crystallise their promised pipeline of potential acquisitions that current fair value should increase.

On the 26th November accordong to a poster elsewhere.

Good to see RNWH thoroughly praised by "professional investor & Director at CEN Group Iain Staples" in conversation with Paul Hill (from 55.05 mins in):

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzsY2HAWlTM

Aberforth Partners have been buying. They're now above 10%, with 19.99m shares:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/capital-CAPD/share-news/Capital-Limited-TR-1-Notification-of-Major-Holdings/94890705

Up around 20% so far this month, and Cannacord have been buying - they now own over 13%, with 5.39m shares:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/accesso-technology-ACSO/share-news/Accesso-Technology-Group-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/94935698

From Rockwood Strategic's interim results today :-

"National World

For the very first time we have repurchased a previously realised investment. This will be a very rare occurrence. The company was formed via the purchase of the Johnston Press regional media assets from administration, shorn of debilitating debt and pension fund liabilities it had built up, by the media industry veteran David Montgomery. We initially invested in January 2021 at 10p. This investment was realised in March 2022 at 28.9p. Subsequently profits and sales have grown and a number of bolt-on acquisitions have been made. The market expects c. £100m of sales and £11m of profit in 2024 with net cash of c.£12m. Due to a small company fund wind-up process we were able to repurchase shares for 13.5p and we have subsequently increased our equity stake to over 5% of the company which was capitalised by the market at c.£40m at period end. On current market expectations, the shares were valued on an EV/Ebitda of 2.4x for their financial year 2025, at period end."

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/rockwood-strategic--rkw/interim-results/8557940

Can't ask for more than that in the current environment.

With the high repeating revenues, blue chip client base and overseas rollout to come in H2 FNX should continue to be a solid performer with periodic leg-ups as per the long-term chart.

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/m-p-evans-MPE/share-news/M-P-Evans-Group-PLC-Strong-CPO-pricing-during-second-half-of-2024/94918115

"CPO prices have strengthened significantly since the Group's interim results announcement in response to a tightening of global vegetable-oil supplies. As a consequence, the Group has consistently achieved mill-gate prices higher than the eight-month average such that the average for the first ten months of the year has increased to approximately US$800 per tonne. Some Group sales in November have exceeded US$950 per tonne."

CAPD have increased their holding in WIA Gold to 242.9m shares (almost exactly 18%).

At the current A$0.13 that's worth £16.1m:

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02881431-6A1237816

New note out from Edison:

Https://d3s3shtvds09gm.cloudfront.net/7c227c7d8987ffdd6e876eaba16a0a51.pdf

They forecast 22.9c EPS this year, rising to 23.3c EPS next year - a P/E of 4.8...

That's with 2.3p and 2.5p dividends.

They conclude (when the share price was 102p):

"Valuation: Ample opportunities for value creation

The shares look overly discounted at an FY25e P/E of 5.6x (a c 50% discount to adtech peers) and an FCF yield of 20%. We believe this discount should start to close if trading remains stable, as expected, and investors gain more visibility on

the impact of key strategic initiatives. Management initiatives to deliver value through capital returns or asset sales could deliver substantial upside."

The Shinez acquisition has been disastrous. I couldn't particularly see the attraction anyway, but given TIG's excellent track record to date re acquisitions I gave them the benefit of the doubt. This has been their first major mis-step, and has exacerbated the relatively weak general performance in Online Marketing.

Nevertheless, TIG was trading on a low rating anyway so hopefully these are the lows. In particular the Online Presence arm alone must be worth a large sum given its huge recurring income, highly positive cash flows and market positioning.

The Shinez deferred consideration is now almost certain not to have to be paid, and perhaps its repositioning will succeed.

I like the CEO and believe he knows his stuff in this sector so should stay and work through this, which is really the first - large - black mark against him and his team.

News from Clarke Telecom, who also seem to be thriving:

Https://clarke-connect.com/response-growth-success/

"Clarke Telecom Unveils Strategic Company Updates in Response to Continuous Growth and Success

In response to our company growth, we’re pleased to announce two significant company updates:

A new combined Commercial and Procurement department structured to manage our future growth.

The appointment of Justin Kippest as Commercial and Procurement Director.

These strategic company developments are in response to achieving over 50% turnover growth in the past two years, and each will strengthen Clarke Telecom’s operational capabilities and reinforce our commitment to proactive, client-focused solutions.

Explore the updates in more detail below."

Three pieces of good news.

Firstly, Sanu Gold has just announced the start of drilling at its Daina Gold operations in Guinea, where it says:

"The Company is excited to be drilling at Daina where auger gold results, rock chip sampling and ground geophysics have contributed to the understanding of key targets most of which remain largely untested. Capital, our new strategic shareholder, has done an excellent job at Diguifara and will also be conducting the drilling at Daina."

Https://money.tmx.com/quote/SANU:OMG/news/8331997205708580/Sanu_Gold_Announces_Start_of_Drilling_at_its_Daina_Gold_Permit

Secondly, Leo Lithium has announced that "net proceeds3 from the US$161 million Tranche 1 payment, the US$10.5 million deposit and the Firefinch Payment are to be distributed to shareholders in January 2025 (Tranche 1 Distribution)".

CAPD's holding in Leo Lithium was worth almost £4m, so hopefully this first distribution might be worth low £millions given that over $170m should soon have been received by Leo Lithium:

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02875909-6A1235570

Thirdly, CAPD have won a new drilling contract with Aton:

"...Aton has executed a new driling contract with Capital Drilling Egypt Ltd (“Capital”) to undertake a minimum of 5,000m of RC drilling on the retained exploration areas at the Abu Marawat Concession. Drilling is planned at the Abu Marawat deposit and the Semna gold mine project, as well as other to date undrilled high priority targets on the Concession, including Sir Bakis and Bohlog..."

Https://atonresources.com/news/2024/aton-announces-corporate-and-operations-update/

Cavendish have reiterated their 112p price target - that's 91% upside - and their new increased adjusted EPS forecasts are:

this year : 6.1p EPS

next year : 6.8p EPS

They summarise:

"Time Finance (TIME): CORP

Timely earnings upgrade

Time has released a positive trading update which shows that momentum has continued into FY25E. The Company continues to grow the lending book to record sizes and generate record revenues. As ever, the quality of the book has not been lessened to achieve this growth. In-line with guidance, we have upgraded our FY25E revenue forecast by 2% to £35.1m, which feeds through to a 5% upgrade at the FY25E PBT and EPS level. Its valuation continues to look compelling trading on a FY26E Basic P/E of just 8.8x and FY26E P/TNAV of 1.1x. We reiterate our 1-year price target of 112p, representing nearly 100% upside."

Excellent update as usual, ahead of expectations once again:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/time-finance-TIME/share-news/Time-Finance-PLC-Trading-Update/94884130

And just tipped again today by the IC's Simon Thompson:

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/e62cc492-62fc-5c25-ae9b-c80a4438ce88

"Simon Thompson:

A lowly rated small business specialist is upgrading earnings guidance again and it’s unlikely to stop

This lender's upgrade cycle is far from over

Published on November 12, 2024

by Simon Thompson

Profits at least 5 per cent ahead of market expectations

Forward PE ratio of 10 and 1.2 times tangible book value

Bath-based Time Finance (TIME:55.5p), a provider of invoice finance, asset finance and loan finance to more than 10,000 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has upgraded earnings guidance in an unscheduled first-half trading update.

The positive trading environment is underpinned by the reluctance of high-street banks to provide funding to SMEs, and Bank of England base rate cuts, too. Buoyed by record revenue, a loan book at an all-time high and stable arrears, the directors expect to deliver at least 22 per cent growth in pre-tax profit to £7.2mn (upgrade from £6.9mn) on 6 per cent higher revenue of £35.1mn in the 12 months to 31 May 2025. On this basis, expect earnings per share (EPS) of 5.9p.

etc"

New note out today from Zeus doesn't add much to the RNS - except that their cashew production forecasts are predicated on 19 tonnes of cashews processed per day, whereas DKL are already about to test at 20 tonnes per day.

And CPO prices have once again surged, reaching $1,345 as of last Thursday - up from $1,000 in August.

For the first time, with even a half-decent CPO production season, DKL could benefit from both a bumper CPO profit and a positive cash flow cashew tonnage (with positive cashew cash flows expected from next month).

Brief notes from this morning's presentation:

- revenues could be £20m-£25m within 3 years, but could exceed that too

- expansion will be in Fire & Security as well as Locksmiths

- NAV is 112p per share

- the cash pile is now £4.4m against the £10.9m m/cap, up from the "over £4m" quoted at 1st November

- the 15% ROI target from new stores is a minimum, whereas actual is more like 40%

- typically acquired store revenues will be from £0.2m-£1m

- iLoq is now in 1,200 student accommodations, with discussions under way for more

- Fire & Security should be boosted by Martyn's Law, now in its final stages and introduced after the Mancheter bombing, which aims to keep the public safe in any venues with more than 100 people, including schools

- CSSG get at least 5% better prices via discounts etc than their smaller competitors

Nice review of RNWH in the IC's new AIM 100 for 2024 - RNWH come in at number 10. I can only access the start as follows:

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/6aec79c3-58d7-5101-b493-a15851705c7a

"10. Renew Holdings

As we’ve seen in parts of North America, there comes a point when infrastructure spending moves from something that is desirable to something that is imperative. We may well have passed that point in the UK some time ago. And it’s this need to update the UK’s ailing road and rail networks that is supporting contract volumes at Renew Holdings (RNWH).

In a recent year-end trading update, the engineering services group confirmed that organic growth was being “underpinned by a robust order book which benefits from the UK's committed infrastructure spending programmes and clients’ long-term operating budgets”. The upshot is that revenue, operating profits and net cash are all expected to come in ahead of market consensus when the company reports figures for the year to 30 September next month.

etc"