Member Info for rivaldo

Terrific news today which lifts the cloud over the company for potential invstors.

With around £5m net cash against a mere £8.5m or so m/cap CNSL is in a terrific position to pursue growth from an already strong position.

Given £0.4m positive EBITDA and a small LBT forecast to March '25, plus rising margins and a trusted and reliable brand there's a huge global food allergy/sensitivity market to go for. Especially with labs in the USA expected to begin commercialising FoodPrint in th current H2.

Just released, and also remember the first distribution of funds from Leo Lithium to CAPD and other shareholders is due for 31st January:

Https://ecodetection.com/eco-detection-first-sale-to-tanzania-mining-customers/

"16 January 2025

Eco Detection first sale to Tanzania mining customers

Eco Detection has shipped its first two Ion-Q+ systems to Tanzania. Our global distribution partner, Capital Limited, are deploying our technology to global mining companies operating in Africa. Capital Limited has some of the world’s largest mining operators as their clients in Africa. This is a substantial market under increasing compliance and operating cost pressure, and ideal for Eco Detection’s continuous water analysis technology."

RNS re $1m of military antenna contract wins, in particular "one development order for a new technology, which moves us up to a sub-system level, meaning we will provide further capabilities in addition to antennas within customer solutions."

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/mti-wireless-edge-MWE/share-news/MTI-Wireless-Edge-Limited-New-Contract-Wins/95240887

Following yesterday's contract wins Shore Capital have reiterated their 80p target price.

With MWE forecast to have around 9p per share in cash, the 2025 forecast of 4.7c EPS means MWE are on an ex-cash P/E of only 11.2.

Shore Capital conclude:

"Outlook and valuation:

We make no changes to any of our group forecasts on the back of today’s news but, obviously, if further significant orders are secured then there is upside potential in FY25F and FY26F.

Our investment case is built on the premise that we believe that each of the divisions has growth drivers with, in our view, Mottech particularly well placed to potentially see stronger demand than we forecast. as its software improves the efficiency of irrigation systems, while reducing the cost of operating them.

However, as has been reinforced by today’s news, we expect to see good demand for the defence-related products. as they benefit from increased defence spending around the world. We also expect the rollout of 5G, such as in India, to lead to more contract wins in due course.

We maintain our 80p fair value on the basis of a DCF analysis, which is corroborated by MTI achieving an FY24F EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.8x (the average of our peer group)."

Announced on their web site too here - I assume this contract isn't quite material enough for an RNS of its own, but for a company of IGE's size it's still likely to be meaningful:

Https://www.3dx-ray.com/3dx-ray-announce-the-sale-of-additional-threatscanunits-at-intersec-dubai-2025/

Here's a link to a terrific article in last weekend's Times (subscription-only though) - great PR for FIPP.

It focuses mainly on what FIPP does for its portfolio of companies, and specifically on Pulsiv, Cambridge Raman and particularly on Alusid, noting once again an upcoming IPO. Here's the snippet on Cambridge Raman:

Https://www.thetimes.com/article/5512561b-44c2-497b-9ca1-a69fa188fc46

"Promising companies in the portfolio include Cambridge Raman Imaging, whose high-speed lasers and advanced artificial intelligence create and analyse detailed digital images in near real-time. Initial applications are in medicine for diagnosing and monitoring tumours and other diseases in human cells."

There's also a new video interview with the Alusid CEO, which reiterates (1) an IPO this year and (2) they're working on "additional distribution agreements with other international partners" as well as the new Dutch agreement - he states "hopefully I'll be in a position to announce future distribution agreements in the near future":

Https://www.frontierip.co.uk/portfolio-companies/watch-alusid-ceo-alasdair-bremner-discusses-the-companys-first-international-distribution-deal/

Encouraging contract wins today, both in terms of materiality and the breadth of customers, from "a leading global financial organisation" to government, telecommunications and national distribution.

And particularly reassuring re:

"Momentum is continuing to build through H2, supporting the Group's ability to deliver full year results in line with market expectations."

With much of the m/cap covered by the cash pile (NB : it's worth noting that there was £28k of finance income in H1 per Note 4 of the interims, implying that there was a decent average cash pile throughout the period), the current share price is a good opportunity imho for a cybersecurity business with AI-based solutions and proprietory IP.

Very good H1 results, setting up OPG for a massive beat of what now look like very conservative forecasts.

The H1 £4.3m PBT means OPG only need to make £0.8m PBT in H2 merely to meet forecasts of £5.1m PBT and 1.2p EPS.

Cavendish have a 28p target price predicated on their forecasts, so there must be decent further upside on a beat.

The £22.3m net cash is more than the current m/cap! Of course this may or may not be an unusually high balance due to payment schedules etc, but the £4.5m forecast year end cash pile also now looks seriously underpowered.

Particularly as coal prices - OPG's main cost - which rose in late September/October have plummeted in November and December to their lowest levels since March:

Https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal

Cavendish have a new note out - they reiterate their Buy recommendation, with a 112p target - almost 100% upside.

They note there's a good chance of further upgrades, and summarise:

"Time for a Christmas update

Time Finance has released its 1H25E trading update pointing to a continuation of strong performance. The gross book grew 11% to £209m (1H24A: £189m) meaning the Group remains on track to hit its 4-year plan to approximately double the book by May 2025. The quality of the growth has remained high with Invoice Finance and the ‘Hard’ subset of Asset

Finance representing c.85% of new deals originated in the period, leading to net bad debt write-offs remaining stable at just 1% of the average lending book.

Revenue increased 16% to £18.2m (1H24A: £15.7m) whilst PBT increased an impressive 44% to £3.9m (1H24A:£2.7m) giving the company a good chance of outperforming our recently upgraded FY25E PBT of £7.2m given the compounding nature of the growing loan book.

Overall, due to operational gearing and Invoice Finance growth driving higher margin revenue mix, there was a significant increase in PBT margin by 4pp to 21% (1H24A: 17%), something we expect to continue to trend higher as the business further expands.

Time’s valuation looks compelling trading on a FY26E basic P/E of 9.2x and FY26E P/TNAV of 1.1x. We reiterate our 1-year price target of 112p, representing nearly 100% upside."

This is from the H1 trading update a year ago on 19th December '23:

"Continuing positive trading momentum, leading to expectation of Group trading for the full year to be at least in line with recently upgraded market guidance"

i.e almost exactly the same word for word. Subsequently there were at least two further profit upgrades.....

The recent profit-taking here is crazy imo, particularly in view of the OFWAT news today of a £104 billion spend and quadrupled investment in water infrastructure:

Https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/ofwat-approves-104bn-upgrade-to-accelerate-delivery-of-cleaner-rivers-and-seas-and-secure-long-term-drinking-water-supplies-for-customers/

And also further news today that National Grid are to double to £35 billion their spending over the new 5 year regulatory period:

Https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/energy/article/national-grids-35bn-cable-upgrade-would-add-to-bills-7hptpxmxn

"National Grid’s £35bn cable upgrade would add to bills

National Grid plans to spend a record £35 billion upgrading electricity transmission cables to help meet clean energy targets, in a move that would bring a sharp rise in network charges for consumers.

The upgrade in England and Wales is necessary to cope with the huge growth in green power that is key to hitting the government’s 2030 clean energy targets.

National Grid has submitted proposals to the energy regulator for an “unprecedented” investment in expanding the capacity of the system between 2026 and 2031, more than double the spending over the current five-year regulatory period."

"More than £11 billion will be spent on upgrading the existing infrastructure as well as the construction of three new transmission projects. Another £14 billion will need to be agreed with Ofgem over the five-year spending period, which will cover the cost of 14 developments.

In total, 35 gigawatts of new generation will be connected, nearly doubling the amount of power that can flow across the country."

Outstanding H1 results. The £3.9m PBT in H1 means TIME are in a position to thrash even the recently increased forecast of £7.2m PBT for the year.

Write-offs are small and stable, arrears are actually falling and margins are rising.

The group is transforming to a higher quality loan book against invoices and "Hard" assets.

Most importantly the outlook is rosy and suggestive of further upgrades:

"Continuing positive trading momentum; leading to expectation of Group financial performance for the full year to be at least in line with recently upgraded market guidance"

Master Investor's Mark Watson-Williams has just sent out an email covering GMS, most of which is behind a paywall - here's the intro:

"Gulf Marine Services (LON:GMS) – Shares are significantly undervalued

Chairman Mansour Al Alami stated that:

"Strong demand for our vessels continues to drive solid results.

Both forecasted utilisation rates and contracted daily charter rates will enable us to achieve the above guidance."

Yesterday the UAE-based provider of self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels for the offshore energy sector, Gulf Marine Systems, upped its guidance to the market for 2024 and 2025.

It stated that the company now anticipates its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to be at the upper end of previous guidance of $98-100m for 2024.

For 2025, it expects its adjusted EBITDA to reach $100-108m, an increase from the previously forecasted 2025 EBITDA guidance of $92-100m..."

Bought in here this morning for the first time after the shares dipped. Looks like the overhang is lifting now?

Panmure Liberum have reiterated their Buy and 30p target price.

They summarise:

"Upgraded guidance for 2024 & 2025

GMS has issued revised Adj. EBITDA guidance for 2024 with it trading at the upper end of the previous guidance range of US$98m-100m and has increased its guidance for 2025 from US$92m-100m to US$100m–108m. Against this background the shares have declined 13% over the last month, yet 1) the last disclosed backlog stands at a record level of US$503m (in February it was US$373m), 2) deleveraging has accelerated in 2024, 3) new banking facilities enable options to expand the fleet and engage in share buybacks, 4) GMS has raised the potential of paying a dividend, and 5) new opportunities have emerged in European waters for Offshore Wind Farm maintenance. We re-iterate our BUY recommendation and target price of 30p.

GMS continues to deliver

The company continues to perform well with revenue growth boosted by higher day rates. The significant reduction in net debt has materially reduced borrowing costs (US$31m in 2023 falling to an expected US$13m in 2026) and the recent re-finance gives the company scope to look at ways to expand the fleet (i.e. leasing). Demand for SESVs continues to be strong as evidenced by the rise in the company backlog which represents c3x FY25E revenues and indicates that the company’s financial performance looks secure in the coming years.

Vessel demand remains strong

Oil & Gas activity levels in the core MENA region remain high (GMS has no exposure to the UK economy), despite crude prices faltering as demand concerns continue to weigh on markets. We see the recent postponement of OPEC+ production increases having no negative impact on GMS given the high level of backlog with their vessels being utilised for (already) committed work programmes. In the event that OPEC+ does increase production, we see this as a positive with the increased activity driving demand higher."

Amati UK Smaller Companies have just issued their November factsheet.

They've been buying more RNWH as a "core holding", and RNWH has actually appeared in their top 10 holdings for (from memory) the first time as their ninth largest holding:

Https://www.amatiglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Factsheet-SMCO-November-2024.pdf

Rising nicely the last couple of days after the launch news, and per a poster elsewhere there's hardly any stock available to buy online.

"Apollo has engaged highly regarded drilling operator Capital Drilling to undertake drilling at Salanie, with planning now underway to commence early in the new year.

“With Capital Drilling onboard for 2025; we look forward to a highly productive start to the year as we test four key target prospects as well as our developing greenfield targets,” Inwood said."

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1062548/apollo-minerals-intersects-shallow-high-grade-gold-at-salanie-in-gabon-1062548.html

They summarise:

"Strong US growth coming through

Canaccord Genuity view Revenues up 40% in FY24E with a £0.1m EBITDA beat Today's FY24 trading update for the year to 31 October is ahead of revised guidance, with Velocity expecting to report revenue growth of 40% y/y to £23.0m (CGe: £22.8m) and an EBITDA result of £0.4m (CGe: £0.3m). This represents both a strong top-line performance and a return to EBITDA profitability as US production volumes continued to ramp up, input costs were passed on to improve gross margins and operational efficiencies were realised. A £0.7m net cash position is better than our expectation of £0.4m net debt, reflecting a neutral working capital position y/y, with balance sheet liquidity in a healthy position to support future growth.

Looking ahead to FY25 we anticipate final sign-off on Block 4 of the US contract (worth ~$8m per annum) could be achieved in H1 to complete the customer onboarding process, enabling US production and revenues to build towards full run-rate levels.

Our unchanged FY25E estimates anticipate revenue growth of 17% to £27.0m underpinned by contracted US volumes and record customer order backlogs, while EBITDA climbs >4x to £1.7m as operational gearing benefits are realised. We also assume an inflection to positive free cash generation to further strengthen the group's net cash position. Beyond this, a new business pipeline worth £200m in a growing composite market continues to provide blue-sky upside as Velocity targets £100m of revenues and a 10% EBITDA margin by 2028. We maintain BUY with a 60p EV/Sales derived target price."

"Shares look materially undervalued

We think EV/Sales is appropriate as Velocity scales up its revenues and sustainably builds EBITDA margin towards its 10% target. With the shares trading on a 2025E EV/Sales of just 0.4x, we value Velocity at 60p/share based on a 1.1x multiple which is a 30% discount to peer average. This suggests upside of nearly 3x from the current 21.5p share price. If Velocity hits its five-year target of £100m revenues and a 10% EBITDA margin by 2028, our discounted sensitivity analysis suggests blue-sky upside potential of ~6x to 122p at 10x EV/EBITDA."

Another lovely framework contract win for RNWH's AMCO subsidiary, this time for airports:

Https://mediacentre.magairports.com/mag-announces-partners-for-its-airfield-infrastructure-framework/

"MAG announces partners for its Airfield Infrastructure Framework.

The Framework will support MAG’s three airports – Manchester, London Stansted and East Midlands Airports - over the next five to eight years. It is designed to deliver the Group’s airfield development programmes as it continues to invest in its airport infrastructure.

etc"

And further good news today for RNWH's new subsidiary providing wind turbine services Full Circle:

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx27wppegddo

"Miliband unveils new powers to approve large wind farms

13 December 2024, 02:43 GMT

Updated 19 minutes ago

The government has unveiled plans to give ministers the final say on approving large onshore wind farms rather than leaving decisions to local councils, where opposition has often been fierce.

The plan is among proposals announced by Energy Secretary Ed Miliband on Friday as part of what the government is calling an "ambitious" action plan for reaching 95% clean energy in the UK by 2030.

Miliband also wants to give powers to the energy regulator to prioritise projects in the queue waiting to link up with the National Grid.

etc"

I bought in here on the bell and afterwards for the first time this morning having watched for years, for the same reasons as others below.

The m/cap is low given the potential, achieving positive operating cash flow and VEL's now being into positive EBITDA territory and on the cusp of making a real PBT.

With VEL forecast to achieve decent surplus cash for this year, a small fundraising at current or elevated levels to accelerate growth would be fine anyway.

VLE would appear to be in the right place at the right time to meet record order backlogs and to help achieve improved efficiency and higher sustainability targets.

Excellent news - FNX have confirmed the Portugal launch, and this is ahead of the "early 2025" schedule mentioned in the AGM statement.

I also note that FNX state they now have "coverage now across five countries (UK, Ireland, Germany, Austria and Portugal). They haven't AFAIK specifically mentioned before that coverage has actually commenced in Austria, so this looks like another under the radar titbit....

Https://www.fonix.com/blog/fonix-launches-in-portugal/

"Fonix Launches in Portugal

11/12/2024

We are thrilled to bring our mobile interactivity and SMS billing services to Portugal. This launch represents a significant milestone for Fonix as we continue to expand our global footprint. Our solutions are designed to help businesses grow by leveraging the power of mobile technology, and we look forward to supporting Portuguese businesses in achieving their goals.

With coverage now across five countries (UK, Ireland, Germany, Austria and Portugal), we can accept more payments, unlocking huge growth opportunities for our clients.

The launch in Portugal is part of Fonix’s ambitious plan to establish itself as a global leader in mobile payments and interactive services. By tailoring solutions to local markets, Fonix aims to drive innovation and revenue growth for businesses worldwide.

This expansion is a testament to Fonix’s commitment to enabling businesses to thrive in an increasingly mobile-driven world. Whether it’s simplifying payment processes or creating more meaningful customer connections, Fonix is paving the way for a smarter, more connected future.

Stay tuned as Fonix continues to make waves across Europe and beyond!"