Member Info for rivaldo

In addition to Sanu Gold's rise, WIA Gold is also at around new highs at A$0.16.

At current exchange rates CAPD's holding in WIA alone is now worth £14.2m - almost 10% of CAPD's entire m/cap.

Good to see a rally this week with small rises. Lots of upside here imo, particularly as per the prior post given the 88p broker price target.

Up again today and at new 2-year highs now.

CAPD's 24m shares in Sanu bought last year at C$0.05 have now almost five-bagged (or four-bagged depending on your point of view!) to CS0.245, up another 23% overnight.

They're now worth around £3.3m....

Https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/SANU:OMG

An excellent listen, thanks. Some highlights:

- H2 continues to trade nicely in line and momentum has continued into January

- the order book remains at strong levels

- big concentration on synergies, i.e subsidiaries exhibiting together in one large stand at exhibitions rather than small dispersed stands

- only 2-3 businesses trading in/with China

- Life Sciences has recovered nicely

- cash flows have been "good" in H2

- FCF is impressive at £5m-£6m per annum, so acquisitions can be self-financing, generating an additional £1.3m-£1.4m EBITDA

- SDI are achieving significant cost savings across the company, i.e at Atik (closing the Norfolk office and halving the cost base), Monmouth, Safelabs and Synoptics

Swedbank are happy to snap up shares as fast as they can - they're now up to 5.04% and have bought another 460,034 shares from 6th Feb to 11th Feb:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/renew-RNWH/share-news/Renew-Holdings-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/95418372

Johnnyy, this is a new contract win.

Worth noting - with MWE forecast to have around 8.7p per share in net cash, the 2025 forecast of 4.7c EPS means MWE at 52p are still on an ex-cash P/E of only 11.4.

Shore Capital have maintained their 80p target and current forecasts this morning, but note the "upside potential".

They conclude:

"Our investment case is built on the premise that we believe that each of the divisions has growth drivers with, in our view, Mottech particularly well placed to potentially see stronger demand than we forecast. as its software improves the efficiency of irrigation systems, while reducing the cost of operating them.

However, as has again been reinforced by today’s news, we expect to see good demand for the defence-related products. as they benefit from increased defence spending around the world. We also expect the rollout of 5G, such as in India, to lead to further contract wins in due course. We maintain our 80p fair value on the basis of a DCF analysis, which is corroborated by MTI achieving an FY24F EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.8x (the average of our peer group)."

Terrific news - a $4m antenna manufacturing contract win, "one of the largest orders we have ever received":

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/mti-wireless-edge-MWE/share-news/MTI-Wireless-Edge-Limited-Significant-Contract-Win-and-Notice-of-Results/95414304

"The order entails the supply of state-of-the-art antennas and is integral to an end use which is considered to be one of the most advanced systems of its kind in the world. The antennas are designed to deliver unmatched accuracy and robust communication, leveraging our sophisticated and complex production technology. This win and others like it, add to our growing reputation for providing highly innovative antenna solutions and we look forward to continuing to work closely with defence companies from around the world."

Nice 194,000 share buy at 24.5p just reported.

Allenby Capital's latest update FYI from late January with a 75p fair value:

"MTI Wireless Edge Ltd* (MWE.L, 52.0p/£45.2m)

Update: Antenna contract wins (14.01.25)

• Three orders worth c. $1m from an existing system house customer in Israel for the development and manufacture of military antennas for delivery during 2025.

• The orders fit with the previously identified trend (26.09.24) of local system houses outsourcing antenna manufacturing. Two of the contracts cover manufacturing, whereas the third is a development order for a new technology. This moves MWE up to a subsystem level provider i.e. a greater share of spend.

• No change to forecasts or 75p/share fair value.

Allenby Capital comment: The orders increase revenue visibility for the Antennas division for FY25. The manufacturing orders fit with the trend for outsourcing by local system houses and the development order results in MWE securing a greater share of customer spend. Demand remains strong in Antennas and MWE's unique ABS 5G product offers a large medium-term opportunity. There were signs of improvement in Mottech and MTI Summit and good sales pipelines in November's Q3 results. Shares have recovered from recent lows, but MTI’s FY24 valuation remains undemanding (FY23 EV/EBITDA: 7.1x) plus the well covered 5.4% yield."

Good to see the share price rising on a couple of 10k buys this morning.

Still v.cheap imho given the low ex-cash P/E taking into account the huge cash pile relative to the m/cap.

Looks like an overhang has finally cleared.

..and more today, after buying this morning at the full 1800p offer price. Good to see a much smaller than usual 1740p-1800p published spread too at present.

Zeus have updated this morning as follows. They currently forecast that this year will produce €1.9m FCF, up from €0.4m last year.

I suspect that the CPO price assumptions for their forecasts are somewhat lower than the prices achieved in January, but will have to research?

They summarise FYI:

"Zeus view: While only one month into FY25, Dekel has started the year strongly, benefiting from steady production volumes, along with high prices for CPO and PKO in the local market. With the annual palm oil high season commencing shortly, a continuation of prices at these levels combined with normal production volumes should set up a strong financial performance for the full year. With the cashew project continuing to deliver improvements in throughput as new equipment is bedded in, our FY26E forecasts illustrate the potential for the group with a full year of operation at full capacity, with a significant uplift expected as this project moves from an EBITDA loss in FY24E to a material profit."

FYI Techinvest's January issue made HVO one of their Tips of the Year for 2025 as follows.

Apologies if this has already been posted - I haven't seen it here, but I don't bother following this thread too often due to all the...well, you know!

"hVIVO (HVO; 20.5p) provides facilities and support for infectious and respiratory

disease vaccines and therapeutics using human challenge clinical trials. Revenue has soared over the last five years, reflecting a succession of major contract wins as the company has become established as a dominant player in its sector. For fiscal 2024 (year ended December 31), revenue is expected to have increased by 11% to c.£62.3m, with earnings per share of 1.41p. Further low double-digit increases in revenue and profit are expected for the current year, with earnings per share rising to 1.68p for a prospective P/E of 12.2. Last month, hVIVO announced an £11.5m contract with a top-tier global pharmaceutical client and also confirmed that EBITDA margins for fiscal 2024 are expected to be at the upper end of market guidance. With net cash worth 3.4p and good operational efficiencies to be derived from an expanding order book, we feel that the shares represent excellent value."

Zeus's update post-results notes that the Rail division alone "has historically delivered revenues in excess of £10m".

Also worth noting that despite forecast reductions PEG are still forecast this year to produce £1m EBITDA and £1.1m positive operating cashflows:

Zeus state:

"Order momentum into FY25: While demand remained mixed in the period, we note strong order intake within H2, leading to a significantly improved closing order book of £7.1m as at 31 December 24 (FY23: £2.4m). The launch of an in-car mobile version of QRO’s Harrier AI ANPR camera should support continued demand in this division."

And summarise:

"Zeus view: While Petards has experienced a continuation of challenging trading conditions, we continue to view its underlying businesses as well positioned to benefit from cyclical improvements in their respective markets. Now with a more diversified exposure following the Affini acquisition, we view Petards near term outlook as solid given its robust balance sheet position and positive cash generation. Beyond this, an improvement in rail investment activity, demand from specific defence programmes, and continued strength in the QRO division should deliver stronger results in due course."

Good to see the Naked Trader keen in his most recent update:

"Decent report from Fonix today - good news there is a special dividend along with the usual one which shows confidence, goes ex dividend for this next Thursday.

For newbies that means if you buy the shares by the end of play next Wednesday you will get the special dividend.

It’s a nicely growing business with new business in Portugal growing well , an Isa hold and keep."

New 15 page Buy note out today from Panmure Liberum with a 30p target price.

They summarise as follows:

"Since 2021, the primary focus for GMS has been around deleveraging. This has now largely been accomplished due to favourable markets with the net debt projected to be US$160m (net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.5x) by December 2025 - it was US$406m and 8.1x in 2020. Accordingly, the narrative has evolved such that GMS, having regained the trust of the banks can consider payment of a dividend, share buybacks or possible expansion in the fleet by way of buying or leasing further vessels. In effect, its recovery story has moved on which has yet to be fully realised in the share price. We maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of 30p.

Demand outstrips supply for vessels – FCF yield of over 20% GMS is benefitting from a favourable macro-backdrop of improving demand for its vessels both in the Gulf region and the North Sea coupled with a tight supply of vessels. This has led to a potent combination of increased backlog, day-rates, utilisation and cashflow. We see this positive scenario playing out for, at least, the next three years given the lead time in supplying new vessels and the upbeat outlook for Oil &Gas and Offshore Wind Projects.

Capital allocation – what happens now? The priority in 2025 remains deleveraging but options are materialising: 1) pay a dividend 2) engage in share buy-backs, or 3) expand the fleet by buying or leasing another vessel. All three options are feasible and to highlight how attractive a dividend payout of 25% would be – it would imply a dividend yield of c.5% which would be 3.8x covered and cost only US$11m in cash terms in 2026."

Ticking up again today. Two 52,500 share buys at 34.7p have just been reported late from Friday, on top of an additional 52,500 at the same price already reported on Friday, i.e a total 157,500 shares bought at 34.7p. Perhaps a bit of stakebuilding going on.

A "strong start to 2025" for CPO - production broadly in line with last year, but sales volumes up 14% and sale prices a whopping 34.9% ahead of last year with international prices so strong.

And "this strong performance is likely to continue in the coming months".

Plus a brief update on cashews confirming anticipation of "significantly improved results, including achieving our first-ever EBITDA-positive performance in the year ahead".

So a pretty good start to the year.....