Member Info for rivaldo

RNWH were tipped as a Buy in SCSW's February issue as follows - note that even the reduced forecast is still 70.2p EPS, i.e well up on last year and a P/E of only 9.9 at 693p:

Https://www.scsw.co.uk/issues/february-2025/renew-slower-start-to-cp7-but-water-outperforming/

"It looks like the government’s move to privatise the rail network may be coming home to roost with uncertainty (I can only imagine employees at Network Rail are giving up the will to live - look at Tracsis’ share price - Editor) possibly the reason Control Period 7 has seen slower contract materialisations for renewal work compared to previous cycles. Maintenance work continues as normal. Renew's Rail business (38% of Group) is lagging although Water is outperforming but not enough to close the gap. The integration of Excalon and Full Circle is progressing well and both are trading in line. Peel Hunt has shaded its EPS forecast to 70.2p, which is still ahead of last year’s 63p. On a PE of 10.3, the shares are a buy."

Zeus summarise as follows:

"Change of CEO to accelerate organic growth plans

Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning, the Group has announced the appointment of Lynden Jones as CEO in the first step of its strategy to increase the rate of organic growth and realise shareholder value following the conclusion of its strategic review. Having introduced a high-level outline last month, today’s announcement provides further details on this plan, including the change of CEO, the Chair’s intention to remain in place to oversee the transition and next stage of growth, as well as aiming to return up to £1m of surplus cash to shareholders over the next year.

Additionally, Touchstar reiterates its expectations for FY25E, with our forecasts implying 20.3% revenue growth and PBT growth on the back of a healthy orderbook and sales pipeline. Trading on a FY25 PE of 11.4x and EV/EBITDA of just 2.6x, underpinned by £3.0m of net cash (40%+ of the market cap), we see scope for the shares to move higher during 2025 as the strategy is delivered."

"Renewed strategy for value creation:

Following the conclusion of its strategic review in February, in which a number of indicative proposals were received and ultimately rejected, Touchstar has announced a renewed strategy to accelerate growth within the business. Key steps to the plan include increasing investment in the fuel delivery business overseas, building the technology platform to address a wider range of verticals, and increasing marketing and promotional activities. Today, the company has also firmed up plans to return surplus cash to shareholders, now providing guidance on the quantum of returns, stating that up to £1m would be returned via share buybacks or dividends over the next year.

 Forecasts illustrate 20% organic revenue growth: Following the February update, we reintroduced forecasts expecting 20% revenue growth and PBT of £0.7m, up from £0.5m in FY24E. Management has reaffirmed expectations of revenue and profit growth this morning, which are premised on an order book of £1.0m, up 130% on the prior year, a healthy sales pipeline, and high levels of recurring revenue in the business.

 Zeus view: We view the appointment of a new CEO as a positive step in reinvigorating growth in the business, capitalising on Touchstar’s solid product portfolio and strong position within the fuel delivery market. We believe that the business is fundamentally well positioned for growth, with contracted recurring revenue totalling 44% in FY24 and expecting to increase, a much improved orderbook and backed by a strong balance sheet, including net cash of £3.0m equivalent to 40%+ of the market cap. As such, we see scope for the shares to outperform in 2025 as the strategy is successfully executed."

Cavendish have reiterated their 300p target price as follows:

"Investment case

Robust H1 25 with +6-7% yoy gross profit and adjusted EBITDA growth (p5)

— New customer wins in H1 25 include News UK, Lebara, and Grace Media; H1 25 gross profit as a % of TPV increased to 6.5% from 5.8% in H1 24; and after becoming the market leader for interactive services in Ireland after launch in FY23, management is awaiting customer activations to launch into Portugal in the coming months, with multiple other European countries targeted for future expansion

— H1 25 gross profit grew +6% yoy to £9.8m with +6% growth in the UK to £8.5m and +9% growth in Rest of Europe including Ireland to £1.2m; we reiterate our FY25E gross profit growth of +6% to £19.0m, including no contribution from Portugal in FY25E at this point; and we reiterate our FY26E gross profit growth of +10% to £20.9m

— Adjusted EBITDA grew +7% yoy to £7.8m in H1 25, which includes investment in international expansion and enhancing the platform’s capabilities; and following the July and January 2024 trading updates where we upgraded FY25E adjusted EBITDA by +3% each time, we conservatively reiterate our FY25E adjusted EBITDA growth of +8% to £14.8m, and reiterate FY26E adjusted EBITDA growth of +10% to £16.2m

— H1 25 underlying EFCF of £5.2m has driven net cash to £11.0m, including £5.6m of H1 dividend payments; we reiterate our FY25E EFCF and net cash, including the 3p special dividend from the January trading update and the H1 ordinary DPS of 2.9p; and we reiterate our FY26E EFCF and net cash of £10.5m and £11.3m

— Following H1 25 results, we conservatively reiterate our FY25E and FY26E gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, EFCF, and net cash, as we show in the table on p12

— Fonix has now achieved 51% of FY25E gross profit and 53% of FY25E adjusted EBITDA, with the potential for growth to accelerate in H2 25E from the launch in Portugal, which we do not currently include in our FY25E gross profit, as we show in the table on p13.

Valuation

— Since IPO in October 2020, Fonix has delivered a perfect record of seven consecutive gross profit upgrades and eight consecutive adjusted EBITDA upgrades, as the platform’s momentum continues to build

— We value Fonix at 300p based on 3.5% FY26E EFCF yield, and it is currently trading on 12x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA with +9% NTM EBITDA growth, 5.4% EFCF yield, and 5.2% dividend yield

— Fonix’s listed peers are currently trading on 12-month forward multiples of 5-29x EV/EBITDA with average NTM EBITDA growth of +10-15%, and average EFCF yields of 3-6%"

The new tie-up with Lebara is interesting. Lebara were acquired by Waterland Private Equity last year and are "one of the most successful MVNOs in Europe".

They have "over 4 million customers across the UK, Netherlands, Germany, France, and Denmark, and operating brand license agreements in a further 5 markets around the world". Which perhaps suggests an easy route for FNX's international expansion:

Https://www.waterlandpe.com/waterland-private-equity-and-lebara-group-announce-strategic-partnership/

Disappointing AGM statement whilst I was away on hols. At least these are only delays which will now come in to H2 - the prospects overall still seem good for a £2.7m m/cap business with a £4.5m order book and almost £1m net cash.

Meanwhile IGE have announced a new contract win on their web site:

Https://www.3dx-ray.com/news/

"3DX-Ray Announce a Follow Contract with a Law Enforcement Agency

March 11, 2025

At this year’s Security and Policing 3DX-Ray announce a contract for the sale of another ThreatScan®-LS3 system to a European Law Enforcement Agency. This sale is a follow-on order for similar systems already in service with the agencies EOD and search teams.

3DX-RAY ThreatScan®-LS3 is a compact yet powerful portable x-ray scanning system, ideal for mobile operations. The 305mm x 256mm imaging area is large enough for typical bags and packages to be scanned in one scan.

etc"

Great to see the stream of new contract wins continuing - particularly via the sourcing of new vessels:

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/gulf-marine-services-GMS/share-news/Gulf-Marine-Services-PLC-Contract/95659037

Zeus have retained their 30p valuation, and have raised their forecasts for this year slightly to 4.4c EPS (from 4.3c EPS).

Greenwood Capital Partners have also updated and have a 29p target price.

Zeus's update this morning forecasts:

- 7.2p EPS this year

- £3m net cash (44% of the £6.8m m/cap)

- £1.2m operating cash inflows this year

In which case there's serious upside here this year assuming forecasts are merely met.

Today's news is extremely positive imo. And there's this as regards current trading...

"As reported in the trading update on 17 February 2025 we entered 2025, with optimism of a good year, with the expectation of growth in revenue and profitability - we remain of that opinion."

MH is a good guy, and it's nice to see him staying on, but the new COO is young and appears to be a high-flyer who'll get things done (and a likely successor to IM).

The entry into overseas markets began a while ago and will now hopefully accelerate.

Use of the huge cash pile for entry into wider verticals and for marketing plus bubacks and dividends is all good and shows the necessary ambition to attract investors.

Perhaps things are about to take an interesting turn here:

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/touchstar-TST/share-news/Touchstar-PLC-Directorate-Change-and-Strategic-Update/95646816

A good, solid H1, particularly compared with most companies at present. To produce 9% EPS growth and 11% dividend growth - plus a special dividend - isn't exactly commonplace at present.

Then add in the following as regards the strong potential for H2 onwards...

- 99% of income is repeating

- Portugal income is about to kick in. We now know that "Fonix has secured contracts with each of the major mobile network operators in Portugal"....

- News International income is similarly just beginning - "In the UK, interactive services have been launched with News UK across its talkSPORT and Virgin Radio brands"

- Bauer have renewed for another two years

Cavendish note that their forecasts are conservative, for example not including any income from Portugal.

They have a 300p target price.

Last year's numbers were solid, but represented a very reassuring performance given the troubles in the Middle East - in particular it's good to see EPS up 9% on flat revenues and PBT and the dividend rising 6% to 3.3c.

The 5c EPS was actually 10% ahead of Shore Capital's forecasts.

Shore have today raised their target price to 100p (from 80p) given the now extremely promising outlook.

I don't think I can ever remember MWE's/the Chairman's tone and confidence being as ebullient as today. All 3 divisions are in a good position and have started this year strongly - defence and military applications and 5G are doing particularly well.

Plus there's the potential for acquisitions - reiterated today - from the cash pile, alongside continued buybacks.

This says it all:

"2025 has undoubtedly started well for the Company with an increased backlog and pipeline of opportunities across all of our three divisions. We are therefore looking forward to delivering a year of growth and increased returns for our shareholders."

Not posted here before:

Https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/resilient-undervalued-and-growing

"Resilient, undervalued, and growing"

Begbies Traynor has confirmed financial performance in 3Q25 was as expected and that FY25E will extend its track record for strong financial growth. We forecast 11% revenue growth and a high 15% Adjusted PBT margin. The macro-economic environment remains supportive for Begbies and the group’s expansion into property advisory gives momentum which we believe is undervalued, trading on only c.9x calendar ‘25 PER.

Today’s trading update confirms that “both divisions have been consistent with the Board’s expectations in the quarter” and that “with a strong pipeline and continued elevated activity levels, our expectations for the full year remain unchanged”. We forecast revenue of £152m for FY25E, +11%, comprising 9% for Business Recovery and Advisory services (to £105m) and 17% for Property Advisory services (to £47m).

BEG shares trade at a c.35% discount to their long-run average valuation multiples and a discount to peers. Offering highly profitable organic growth of 5%-6%, we see scope for a significant rerating to 14x calendar ‘25 PER and a 3% yield – equating to a fair value of 145p / share."

Hardman have just released a summary as follows, showing the cash pile rising to $45.4m this year against the £195m m/cap, and they've raised their 2024 forecasts, with 31.9p EPS in 2025 plus $26.1m EBITDA.

They summarise:

"Anticipating gradual growth acceleration

accesso’s year-end trading update was reassuring, with revenue of ca.$152m in line with the previous guidance range and ahead of our forecast of $150m. More significantly, the cash EBITDA margin, at ca.15%, was well ahead of the 13.2% forecast. Conservatively, we maintained our FY’25 and FY’26 forecasts.

However, as accesso is a growth technology company with a leading market position, we expect revenues to gradually accelerate from 6% in FY’25E into the high single digits, and margins to rise as the group focuses on high-margin transactional revenues. Nevertheless, the shares trade on a modest ca.13x our FY’26E earnings.

► Trading update: In its year-end update, accesso said it expects to report FY’24 revenue of ca.$152m, in line with the August guidance of $150m-$153m. The cash EBITDA margin was ahead of target, however, at ca.15%. Growth, when ignoring pass-through revenues, was ca.4%. Net cash was $28.7m.

► Previous news flow: In August, the company cut its guidance, due to subdued trading volumes in the early part of the northern hemisphere summer months, as well as a project delay in the Middle East. The first-half results, in September, were broadly in line with expectations set following the August update.

► Strong balance sheet: Net cash rose to $28.7m as at end-December from $18.3m at end-June, slightly below our $30.0m forecast. We note that working capital peaks during the summer months, with cash generation following soon after. The company completed a £4m share buyback in November.

► Forecasts: We have increased our FY’24 forecasts in line with the trading update. As a consequence, our FY’24 gross margin, adjusted operating margin and EPS move upwards. We have maintained our forecasts for FY’25 and FY2’6 and will review them again following the final results in April.

► Valuation: The stock trades on 16x our forecast earnings (which we are reviewing) in FY’24, falling to 15x in FY’25 and 13x in FY’26. In addition, accesso has a strong net cash position and healthy cash generation, with a FY’25 free cashflow yield above 6%, on our forecasts. Additionally, the quality of revenues is improving, with 85% repeatable. accesso sizes its total addressable market at $2.3bn, giving it a ca.5.9% market share, with plenty of scope for growth."

Cavendish have a 112p target price - 122% upside from the current 50.5p share price.

They've raised their forecasts to 6.3p EPS for the current year about to finish to May'25, up from 4.9p EPS last year. They summarise:

"Time Finance (TIME):

Upgrading like clockwork

Time Finance has announced that it has continued to see strong trading in FY25E and now expects trading to be ahead of our expectations. In line with the guidance, we have upgraded FY25E revenue by 3% to £36m and PBT by 4% to £7.5m. The Board highlights that the book has seen 15 quarters of consecutive growth whilst arrears remain well controlled, leading to record revenues. We firmly believe that the progress seen in the previous growth plan will be sustained over the next three-year plan. This will see the lending book growing by a further c.50%, arrears remaining stable, PBT margins increasing to the mid-twenties and RoE increasing to c.15%.

The share price remains c.20% off its recent highs despite the upgraded guidance announced yesterday. Further confidence signals have been provided today by Director share purchases: James Roberts, CFO, has bought c.9.4k shares at 53p and Tracy Watkinson, NED, has bought c.18.2k shares at 54.85p. The valuation looks compelling, trading on a FY26E Basic P/E of just 8.4x, PEG ratio of 0.5x and FY26E P/TNAV of 1.0x."

Good solid H1 results whilst I was on hols. With H1 £0.46m PBT plus one acquisition already made in H2, CSSG are in a good position (even with NI and NMW rises) to at least meet Zeus's forecast of £0.92m PBT for the year.

Zeus have 100p fair value - which excludes further upside from the "strong" acquisition pipeline - and summarise as follows:

"Interims in line; healthy acquisition pipeline

Interims results from Croma this morning illustrate a solid period of trading, with 8% revenue growth driven both by organic and acquisition-led expansion, leading to 26% growth at the PBT level YoY. Following the company’s divestment of Vigilant in 2023, proceeds of ca. £4m received to date contributed to a strong net cash position of £4.2m at the period end, with £2.5m of deferred payments remaining due, supporting the company’s ongoing retail locksmiths rollup strategy.

On this score, we view reports of a “strong pipeline” of acquisitions as highly encouraging, with Management anticipating further completions within FY25 (y/e 30 June 2025). Our forecasts, which we leave unchanged this morning, are premised on organic growth only, with future acquisitions likely to contribute to further long term earnings growth in due course.

With solid underlying trading and a sizeable opportunity in the UK for further rollups, our fair value remains at 100p."

"Zeus view: Today’s results reflect a solid period for the group, with robust underlying performance against a challenging market, and the benefits of the Vigilant disposal reflected in a strong net cash balance. Long term growth in the business is well underpinned by a good pipeline of acquisitions and ample funding, with modest ratings (5.0x FY26 EV/EBITDA) undeserved given the potential for upside following further completions."

- Feb'25 revenue was 70% higher than Feb'24

- CPO production increased notably at the end of February

- CPO prices remain high at around $1,250 at time of writing, with local CPO prices up 25% year on year

- re cashews, DKL "expect to report significantly improved results" with positive EBITDA this year

and a quarterly production and sales report re cashews to be reported next month.

Perhaps - finally - this year will be one of both good CPO production and pricing and a transformative positive performance in cashews.

From Master Investor last night - they remain very positive....

Https://masterinvestoruk.substack.com/p/mti-wireless-edge-results-could-boost?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2822697&post_id=158832850&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=odp3u&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

"MTI Wireless Edge – Results Could Boost Wireless Signals

Next Monday morning will see this group’s results for 2024 being announced, I see its shares going even higher.

Mark Watson-Mitchell

Mar 11, 2025

etc"

Here's another article on Shire, who can apparently claim to be the originators of the Balti pie.

That's two articles on Shire in a month. More than I've seen in many years!

One could speculate that this is part of a PR push to let the wider market know of Shire's success and attract some industry/bid interest. Or perhaps that's overthinking it....

Https://www.expressandstar.com/news/2025/03/03/a-humble-pie-with-a-unique-filling-and-a-taste-loved-by-football-fans-across-the-west-midlands/

"A humble pie with a unique filling and a taste loved by football fans across the West Midlands

It’s something which takes the crumbly and tasty pastry of a pie and fills it full of rich and saucy curried chicken to provide a taste sensation which has wowed football fans for nearly 30 years.

By James Vukmirovic

Published Mar 3

....However, its origins actually lie outside the Black Country in Warwickshire, where Shire Foods in Leamington Spa can lay claim to be the creators of the much-loved pie.

It was in 1997 when the company, which was based in Warwick at the time, were looking for a new type of pie, with the then-commercial director Ron Baldwin coming up with the idea.

Current commercial manager Keven Newey described what had happened and what the next stage had been.

He said: “Our commercial director at the time was a Brummie and it was his brainchild to combine curry with pastry, so they looked at all the different curry options."

FYI Hybridan published this on 28th February whilst I was on hols:

"Shearwater Group 33.5p £7.86m (SWG.L)

Financial Calendar:

Year End June, Report October, Interims September, Report November

Three Main Shareholders:

L Jones 12.3%, Schroder Investment Management 11.8%, Philip Higgins 11.1%

Key Investment Points:

Cyber recovery, Strong H2 Growth, Low Rating

We feature a cybersecurity, advisory, and managed security services group with IP offering a range of technology solutions including identity access, email encryption, and managed cyber services driven by AI. The worldwide spending on information security and risk is predicted, by consultancy firm Gartner, to increase to more than $220bn in 2025 with 11.7% growth.

SWG has three businesses providing technology cyber, security, and regulatory services from four offices with corporate clients in 50 countries and via 350 resellers. The focus is on helping clients manage the interaction between technology, process, and people to increase operational resilience.

Alongside its Interims, which were reported in November, it announced a $12.8m, five-year contract, with a leading global mobile telecommunications company. It will provide hardware, software, and support services to enhance its client’s monitoring capacity of texts inter alia which have increasing regulatory obligations. Revenue recognition will be phased across the contract and approximately $3.5m is expected within the current year.

The Interims to September, without this deal, reported that revenues improved by 8% to £11.3m with an increased underlying loss to £1.1m, reflecting an agreed margin reduction on a strategically significant account and adverse FX movement. The interim net cash increased from £2.2m to £3m.

The second half is always stronger due to customer procurement cycles and there are often material contracts concluded around the end of March, which is then followed by a slow 3 months to June. Consequently, the Y/E has now been changed from March to June 2025.

In January, trading was reported to be on track and at the same time, performance Options were granted to the new CFO. These are contingent on achieving an Adjusted EBITDA of £2m for the 15 months to June 2025 (including the three slow months), which would be a 130% increase on the 12 months to March 2024. The full options packaged would only occur if the Adjusted EBITDA for Y/E June 2026 is £3m or more. Directors have recently purchased shares at 35p.

For the 15-month ending 30 June 2025, full year revenues are set to rise 72% to £38m, with a pre-tax profit of £0.4m.

Hybridan Comment: We calculate that the 2025 EBITDA/EV is a lowly 3x, which seems to underestimate the recovery and H2 growth in an increasingly hostile and complex geopolitical world."

This new James Bilsland contract win sounds a decent size - this in particular should help this year's results nicely:

Https://www.touchstar.co.uk/blog/jdbilsland

"Touchstar Android mobile computing devices are being installed across Bilsland depots as part of a staged roll out. By the end of 2025, the company is aiming to have TouchStar technology within its entire fuel fleet."

Worth a reminder of the rather positive outlook for this year on a £6.8m m/cap, with almost £3m net cash and 44% recurring revenues:

"The Board is positive about the Company's prospects for 2025. This optimism is based upon several factors including:

· the significant order that had been expected to be delivered in 2024 (as referred to in the Company's announcement of 29 October 2024) has now been confirmed for 2025;

· the increased level of the order book which at the start of 2025 was £987,000, more than 130% than at the same time last year (2024: £422,000);

· the potential within the sales pipeline; and

· the contracted recurring revenue run rate which is expected to grow further in 2025."

Per today's RNS the Q3 trading update will be on 25th March - which given TIME's track record will hopefully attract more buying in the run-up. Especially at these bargain prices!

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/time-finance-TIME/share-news/Time-Finance-PLC-Notice-of-Investor-Presentation/95610577

"Time Finance plc, the AIM listed independent specialist finance provider, provided notice on 27 February 2025 that the Group will be providing a trading update in respect of the first nine months of the 2024/25 financial year ("Q3 FY25") on Tuesday 25 March 2025.

As communicated on 27 February 2025, continuing positive trading momentum has led to the expectation that Group financial performance for the full year will be at least in line with recently upgraded market guidance.[1]

The Company now confirms that on the day of the Q3 FY25 Trading Update Chief Executive Officer, Ed Rimmer, and Chief Financial Officer, James Roberts, will deliver a live presentation relating to the scheduled Q3 FY25 Trading Update via Investor Meet Company at 1.00pm on 25 March 2025.

etc"