Member Info for rivaldo

Asara Resources' shares are up another 7% overnight and have more than doubled since the start of this year - CAPD's 150m shares at A$0.045 are now worth £3.25m:

Https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/as1

Good to see recurring income increasing - a nice $1.5m contract win for Mottech Water Solutions:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/mti-wireless-edge-MWE/share-news/MTI-Wireless-Edge-Limited-Significant-Mottech-contract-extension/95775288

Maybe straws in the wind - a sudden flurry of activity recently for BEG on the news wires:

Jackson Jackpot (online competition business) - BEG appointed as administrators:

Https://www.business-sale.com/news/administration/jackson-jackpot-falls-into-administration-227355

Ripple Energy have also appointed BEG as administrators:

Https://www.thenews.coop/ripple-energy-which-worked-with-community-sector-goes-into-administration/

And BEG, after being recently appointed as administrators to Ecotech, sold the business on successfully in a pre-pack:

Https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/yorkshire-professionals-play-major-role-in-deal-to-save-midlands-manufacturing-jobs-4999516

Terrific news - £8.4m equates to the entire current m/cap!

And SWG are forecast to have £5.6m net cash at the upcoming 30th June year end against that £8.4m m/cap:

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/shearwater-SWG/share-news/Shearwater-Group-PLC-Contract-Renewal/95763132

Here's Cavendish's research update this morning - they have a 78p target against the current 36p share price:

"2 April 2025

Contract extension supports FY25E expectations

Shearwater has announced a two-year extension to an existing three-year contract for the Brookcourt Solutions subsidiary to provide advanced assurance solutions to a leading multinational telecom and media company. Revenue and COGS associated with the contract are to be recognised in FY25E, and this supports the company’s expectation of delivering FY25E results in-line with consensus. Our forecast for the financial year to June 2025E represents a recovery in profitability for Shearwater following a challenging FY23 and FY24, and we believe it should be seen as reassuring news that the company has secured this contract extension to underpin expectations. We maintain our FY25E and FY26E forecast and our 78.0p target price.

— Strengthening blue chip customer relationships: The contract extension further deepens Shearwater’s relationship with this major global customer as a trusted provider of forensic monitoring solutions, support, maintenance, training, and managed services. Our investment thesis for Shearwater is based on the company’s position as a leading provider of cybersecurity and monitoring solutions to a global blue-chip customer base.

— Valuation upside: Shearwater benefits from a profitable and cash generative operations and a strong balance sheet. We forecast FY25E net cash of £5.6m, which compares with the current market cap of £7.2m. Our 78p target price represents a EV/Sales multiple of 0.3x and we believe this is conservative for a company with strong prospective growth in revenue and profit."

Today's RNS confirming the Reko Diq contract win is excellent, but I suppose it's not a huge surprise to the market, whereas if it hadn't happened then that would certainly have provoked a reaction!

Nevertheless this will be over $60m per annum likely coming in until at least 2033:

"Reko Diq is set to be the next truly major copper operation in the world"

The other encouraging news is confirmation that the construction phase will utilise CAPD's equipment from Belinga, plus the tailing works will utilise most of the fleet from Sukari:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/capital-CAPD/share-news/Capital-Limited-Capital-signs-mining-services-contract-at-Reko-Diq/95763034

Shore Capital have issued an update after yesterday's encouraging trading news. Unusual to see them quite so bullish on a stock - a "very attractive" opportunity, and retaining their 1350p target price.

And interesting that even after the Full Circle acquisition there are hints of further acquisitions to come:

Https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-aj-bell-travis-perkins-chemring-cranswick-renew/a2462943?page=5

"Shore Capital views Renew as a ‘very attractive’ opportunity

Shares in engineering services group Renew (RNWH) have tumbled since their peak, presenting a ‘very attractive’ opportunity, according to Shore Capital.

Analyst Tom Fraine retained his ‘buy’ recommendation with a ‘fair value’ target price of £13.50 on the stock, which was trading up 2.4% at 678p on Tuesday.

It confirmed confidence in meeting its revised expectations for the full year, ahead of reporting interim results.

‘We expect the shares to react positively, given investors’ concerns over another potential downgrade,’ said Fraine.

‘With the shares having fallen more than 40% since their October peak, we see a very attractive opportunity.’

He said trading remained resilient in the energy and infrastructure sectors, with recent acquisitions progressing in line with expectations.

He added that management continues to review an active acquisition pipeline, whilst the group order book remains at record levels. Net debt is in line with management’s expectations."

Very strong performance given the surrounding market atmosphere - though still loads of upside (see below).

Kingfisher68, good to see another VLE admirer and substantial holder here. Let's just say that I hold above 0.5% of the company, having bought almost all my shares in the 150p-180p days, but I'm not saying exactly how much!

Good to see the share price breaking back above 100p.

Shore Capital forecast 10.7p EPS with a 4.2p dividend for the year ending this month.

They see this rising to 11.4p EPS and a 4.4p dividend for the year starting 1st May.

CAPD were last night awarded the drilling contract by Asara Resources at the Kada project in Guinea:

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02931091-3A665320&v=7bc42bd11d853ed5e8c28f2ffcd6a069ee5cd6b4

"Drilling contract awarded for drilling at Kada

Asara Resources Limited (ASX: AS1; Asara or the Company) is pleased to announce that it has awarded the drilling contract for the upcoming drilling program at the Kada Gold Project in Guinea (Kada) to Capital Drilling Guinea-SA, a subsidiary of Capital Limited (LSE: CAPD) (Capital).

HIGHLIGHTS

▪ Contract awarded for up to 22,000m of Reverse Circulation and 4,000m of Diamond Core Drilling, planned to be completed before the end of 2025.

▪ Drill program aiming to increase geological knowledge at Massan and Bereko and to explore strike and dip extensions of the current Mineral Resource Estimate.

CEO, Matthew Sharples commented:

“We are excited to award this drilling contract to Capital. Capital is a leading provider of drilling services with significant experience both in Guinea and at the Kada Project. This marks a significant milestone in our ramping up of exploration activity at Kada. The drill program has been designed to increase geological knowledge of the Massan deposit as well as explore the strike and dip extensions of both the current Massan and Bereko Mineral Resources.”

Another acquisition - good value if small at first look, given £40k PBT on £200k consideration. But (a) with £675k revenues there's room for improvement on margins and (2) the closure of the existing Peterborough store will bring synergies and savings.

Owning the major security centre in Cambridgeshire looks like a good strategic move:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/croma-security-solutions-CSSG/share-news/Croma-Security-Solutions-Group-PLC-Acquisition/95749498

Encouraging at least that trading is in line with revised expectations. Hopefully the Rail news is all in the price already, though that might not stop the MMs marking the price down once more!

Trading in the Water division looks outstanding, whilst all other areas are trading well.

Order books are at record levels, and there's confidence in meeting expectations - with operating profit still expected to be ahead of last year.

Those "delays and deferments to renewal programmes" in Rail will come back to RNWH at some point - it's just a question of how long it'll take.

Interesting online at present - you can buy a maximum 1,100 shares at 1948p, but sell 2,000 at the 1900p midprice.

I suspect VLE are still in the market buying back shares at 1900p, which is handy given that unusually there appear to be a few shares around.

Great to see a substantial buyback - 5k shares costs £94,500 these days at 1890p. VLE's buybacks have always added value to date and been a signal of the board's perception of value. The value accretion of further buybacks at this point seems self-evident.

Hopefully more to come, especially before the upcoming results given that they're going to read incredibly well following the terrific trading update.

Nice earnings-enhancing acquisition today for only £1.5m initial consideration. Good to see a decent whack of the potential total £3.5m dependent on performance.

An impressive client list "including Aviva, Avis, Icelandair, Specsavers and Very Group" which BBSN can cross-sell into.

I assume the existing forecast of 0.3p EPS will be increased at some point - Cavendish are naturally waiting for the results on 10th April to adjust forecasts, though we already know the results from the trading update.

There's still room for further acquisitions given the £7.5m cash pile at the year end:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/brave-bison-BBSN/share-news/Brave-Bison-Group-PLC-Acquisition-of-Builtvisible/95715711

Dowgate today reiterate their 120p target price, as well as their forecasts of 8.5p EPS to this September and 10.8p EPS to Sept'26.

Interesting that at that point they see REAT as having £1.1m net cash, i.e allowing for another earnings-enhancing acquisition.

The share price is down 2p on just £10k of trades, with punters and MMs concentrating on any negatives in these markets whilst missing the overall positive message, repeated director buying, high recurring income, low P/E etc.

Good to see an AGM statement in these times that summarises:

"the Group is continuing to perform well".

There's the necessary caution about challenging conditions and certain reduced contract frequencies, but the overall tone is confident.

Aquaflow sounds like it's performing excellently and is proving another good acquisition. Plus "the ongoing pipeline of new business remains robust".

The comment that "This is demonstrated by the recent award of contracts across the Group with well-established, high-profile customers" suggests that REAT are continuing to win business in all divisions in addition to those announced via RNS:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/react-REAT/share-news/React-Group-PLC-AGM-Statement/95715680

A poster elsewhere has kindly posted Simon Thompson's 3000p valuation rationale - seems reasonable to me:

"Clearly, as a standalone entity, Shire Foods would command a rating significantly higher than the three times underlying pre-tax profit multiple embedded in Volvere’s conservative net asset value. As a comparison, funds managed by DBAY acquired cake maker Finsbury Foods in November 2023 on an exit multiple of 8.3 times operating profit to enterprise valuation. On the same basis, Shire Foods would be worth £48.1mn, implying a valuation of £38.5mn (1,744p) for Volvere’s 80 per cent stake in the business.

In other words, it’s not difficult to arrive at a sum-of-the-parts valuation of £66.3mn (3,000p), or more than 50 per cent higher than Volvere’s current market capitalisation. Furthermore, the hefty cash pile mitigates downside risk, and interest income continues to be accretive to NAV per share."

Shore Capital's latest update summarises as follows:

"Decent FY24A, strong growth prospects

For FY24A, MTI Wireless Edge (MTI) has reported flat adj. PBT of US$4.8m, but EPS of 5c (10%+ ahead of our 4.5c forecast) on flat revenue of US$45.6m. The balance sheet remains strong with US$6.0m net cash after buying back c..US$1.3m shares. With the group achieving 30%+ gross margins, we believe that there will be an operationally geared increase in bottom-line profitability in due course.

We have increased our DCF-derived fair value to 100p (from 80p), based on, in our view, conservative forecast assumptions on organic growth, which could be boosted by bolt-on acquisitions."

"Outlook and valuation:

MTI has entered FY25F with a very strong order backlog and each of the divisions has growth drivers with, in our view, Mottech well placed to potentially see much stronger demand than we forecast for its water management and control software. The Antenna division is likely to continue to benefit from increased defence spending as well as the rollout of 5G across the world, especially India where it has a manufacturing base. Similarly, we would also expect to see good demand for the defence-related products and services of Summit/PSK with the latter expected to return to profitability in FY25F following restructuring.

We have a 100p fair value on the basis of a DCF analysis, which is more than corroborated were MTI to achieve a peer group average of the FY25F EV/sales multiple of 2.6x and EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.4x."

Cavendish's latest update reads as follows FYI - as previously stated they have a 112p target price, and forecast 6.3p EPS to this May followed by 6.8p EPS:

"3Q25 Trading update

Time Finance has delivered another strong performance for the nine-month period to 28 February 2025, with 3Q25 representing the 15th consecutive quarter of loan book growth. Own-book lending origination grew by 5% to £69.3m (nine months to Feb 2024: £66m) with c.90% of new lending being either Invoice or Hard Asset finance. This helped the gross lending book reach a new all-time high of £210m (at 3Q24: £190m), of which c.80% is now Invoice or Hard Asset finance, up from 50% at the start of the four-year plan in May 2021. As a result, arrears reduced by 1pp YoY to 5% and bad debt write-offs remained stable at 1%, reflecting the high-quality nature of the lending book.

Revenue for the nine-month period rose 14% YoY to £27.3m (nine months to Feb 2024: £24m), reflecting sustained demand for the Group’s multi-product funding solutions. The importance of scale was demonstrated by PBT increasing by 40% to £5.9m (nine months to Feb 2024: £4.2m), already matching last year’s full-year total, while PBT margins improved by 2pp points to 21%.

We firmly believe that the progress seen in the previous growth plan will be sustained over the next three-year plan. This will see the lending book growing by a further c.50%, arrears remaining stable, PBT margins increasing to the mid-twenties and RoE increasing to c.15%. The share price remains c.20% off its recent highs, despite the upgraded guidance last month.

The valuation looks highly compelling in our view, trading on a FY26E basic P/E of just 8.2x, PEG ratio of 0.5x and FY26E P/TNAV of 1.0x."

News that RNWH's subsidiary AMCO have won places on 5 of the 7 lots, including by far the biggest ones, for a £240m building and civils framework for maintenance of rail lines between London and Essex:

Https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/c2c-names-appointees-to-240m-building-and-civils-framework-for-london-to-essex-line-18-03-2025/