Member Info for rivaldo

Nice £16,000 buy at 1948p just reported, and a resultant move up.

Excellent info from the Private Punter's article. The mooted share buybacks surely have to be a good idea at these levels, especially given the £5.6m cash pile against the £8.6m m/cap.

From this weekend's Mail on Sunday's article on cyber security:

Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14698227/How-profit-rush-protect-firms-M-S-style-cyber-attacks.html

"Good options for individual stocks

For those who prefer to pick individual shares and are untroubled by the volatility that entails, there are some good options.

Tiny SysGroup, based in Manchester, is backed by Ken Wotton, manager of Baronsmead Venture Capital Trusts, who says that the business is 'well positioned for sustained growth'.

SysGroup supports small and medium-sized businesses with their cyber security. 'It assists in building robust cyber security systems spanning not only the core business but also its supply chains – a critical yet often overlooked area of vulnerability for many groups,' Wotton says."

Another almost 5k shares reported bought back in today's RNS.

Pretty impressive buying back the shares both days at 85.77p - only just above the bid price! To get the shares at that price is terrific, particularly as regards a microcap like TST.

A very thorough article on VLG's deal from the Oak Bloke on Substack. He calculates VLG are on a potential P/E of 3.7 - see his charts/spreadsheets which aren't reproduced here.

Here's a couple of brief extracts. He notes that:

"if I plug in my 2H24e estimates then I get to a net 33.1p per share of cash on a business you can buy for 50p. A net price of 16.9p.

So the business you get for 16.9p net is forecast to generate £66.28m revenue in 2025, although £10.8m of that revenue transfers to Biokosmes, I’m assuming as at 1st July, so an underlying revenue for 2024 of £45m at a 45% gross margin so a £20.2m gross profit. OpEx of -£12m and Amortisation of -£4.5m gets you to £3.7m PBT and £2.8m PAT, that’s 2.2p a share so a P/E of 7.6X (estimated).

That’s looking backwards. What if we look forwards? Double-digit growth and a focus on growth combined with cash to invest into marketing and into new market entry should speed up double-digit growth further still.

These are my growth estimates for 2025, more or less extrapolating existing growth patterns seen in 2024 and based on known newsflow."

"Where a run rate profit based on the 2H25 numbers of around £7.7m annualised (and growing) per year from 2026 appears eminently achievable…. assuming zero further growth from 2H25 mind you :)

If you’re happy with that then you’re buying a business able to generate an adj.P/E of 3.7X."

VLG "just needs to keep doing what it’s already doing. The 45% sales growth in 2H24 vs 1H24 in my prior article “Full Year Review” is TREMENDOUS!

That growth was on products with a 48% average gross margin while the decline in 2H24 was stuff with a ~30% average gross margin - now offloaded in the sale.

If we profile the remaining VLG Brands part of the business the four year track record of organic growth is solid too, and the 2025 outlook is attractive. Especially as it also now has a warchest of cash to deploy.

Just look at its acquisitions (each row shows the year of acquisition) and then subsequent columns shows the organic growth track record.

Do I see a leapord? Well I reckon I’ve spotted a fast cat that’s for sure."

Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/di-vlg-e-and-divest?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1859293&post_id=163430687&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=odp3u&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

A reminder (mainly for myself!) that the results will be out "on or around 23 May 2025".

Zeus have updated as follows FYI - extracts here:

"April update:

Strong palm oil pricing continues

Dekel’s monthly production update for April, released this morning, reports a continuation of strong palm oil prices, up 24.1% YoY, contributing to year-to-date revenues up 30% against 2024.... This morning’s update confirms that these operational improvements in the cashew project have continued into April, with the division remaining on track to report a maiden EBITDA profit in the full year 2025. In the palm oil business, strong prices have coincided with solid production volumes, which were flat on April 2024, placing Dekel in line with our full year expectations at this point in the year. Looking forward, with palm oil pricing at very strong levels both locally and internationally and highly encouraging progress in the cashew project, we view Dekel as well placed as the cashew project swings to profitability.

 Palm oil prices remaining strong: April’s production update from Dekel marks a continuation of solid production figures and very strong pricing for the group, which has contributed to a 30% increase in YTD revenues in the palm oil division against 2024. Prices of €964 / tonne of crude palm oil (“CPO”) were significantly ahead of April 2024 (€777/tonne), maintaining recent highs and mirroring strong pricing in international CPO markets......

 Strong progress with cashew output: Today’s update confirms that positive momentum reported in last month’s quarterly cashew update has continued in April. Dekel’s Q1 update reported progress in the cashew project on several metrics, with Q1 production increasing 322% on Q1 2024 at 211 tonnes, an 80% increase on Q4 2024. Pricing was also significantly ahead at €5,800/tonne for peeled cashews, against €3,250/tonne in the prior year. Production rates continued to increase in Q1, with 451 tonnes of raw cashews processed in March (879 tonnes processed in Q1 in total), and further increases in production rates are still expected in the coming months. Ahead of the group’s Q2 update in July, Dekel reiterated guidance that it would report its first EBITDA profit in the cashew business in FY25.

 Zeus view: ....While further incremental improvements in cashew output are assumed within our forecasts, we view recent progress as a significant milestone for the group, with this new business on track to deliver a maiden EBITDA profit in FY25. Our forecasts assume ca. 1,500 tonnes of cashews produced over the full year, leading to a ca. €0.8m profit in this division, supported by additional cashew capacity being brought online in H2 2025. With execution risk in bringing cashew production up to full capacity now reducing, we view Dekel as increasingly well placed to deliver significantly improved results from the cashew business, contributing to strong cash generation and the ability to pay reduce levels of debt over time."

Shore Capital retain their 100p target price. They note their forecasts are "conservative" at 5.1c EPS this year, with a closing $8.5m cash pile.

Extract:

"Outlook and valuation: MTI entered FY25F with a very strong order backlog and each of the divisions has growth drivers with, in our view, Mottech well placed to potentially see much stronger demand than we forecast for its water management and control software as evidenced by the contract announced today.

The Antenna division is likely to continue to benefit from increased defence spending as well as the rollout of 5G across the world, especially India where it has a manufacturing base. Similarly, we would also expect to see good demand for the defence-related products and services of Summit/PSK with the latter expected to return to profitability in FY25F following restructuring.

We have a 100p fair value on the basis of a DCF analysis, which is more than corroborated were MTI to achieve a peer group average of the FY25F EV/sales multiple of 2.6x and EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.4x."

Shandypants2, I've never seen any company do anything other than report daily on the aggregate shares bought back the previous day - I've never seen an RNS noting what was bought back over a period of days or weeks.

I thought I'd post here a quick summary I did elsewhere of my own thoughts as to valuation.

TST's £3m cash pile represents around 36p per share.

With 6.6p EPS forecast this year - which is hopefully conservative, even with an H2 bias - and 8.3p EPS next year, the P/E at say 120p would still only be 14.4 going forwards. The PEG would be 0.56, which is Slater's sign of extremely good value.

If you strip out the £3m cash, at 120p the ex-cash P/E would be just 10.1 for next year.

At the current 87.5p share price the ex-cash P/E is only 7.8, falling to 6.2.

Https://www.fonix.com/fonix-wins-best-digital-innovation-for-soccer-aid-for-unicef/

"Fonix wins Best Digital Innovation for Soccer Aid for UNICEF

09/05/2025

We are thrilled to announce that Fonix has been awarded Best Digital Innovation at the Third Sector’s Business Charity Awards for our work on Soccer Aid for UNICEF 2024 – a campaign that pushed the boundaries of digital fundraising and delivered record-breaking results.

The celebration was made even more special by attending the black-tie awards ceremony at the London Marriott Grosvenor Square last night, where we joined our incredible partners from ITV and Soccer Aid for Unicef for a night to remember.

Soccer Aid for UNICEF 2024 event raised a remarkable £15 million. Our contribution to this achievement? A cutting-edge, multi-channel donation platform that enabled viewers to donate seamlessly via SMS, online, and, for the first time, through Apple Pay and Google Pay.

At the heart of this innovation was the launch of DonationPortal, our fully customisable, mobile-first donation platform. This intuitive platform made giving quick, easy, and frictionless, empowering supporters to contribute effortlessly before, during, and after the match.

Alongside the DonationPortal, we integrated our trusted SMS donation platform and interactive text-to-win competitions, providing fans with multiple ways to get involved with just a few taps.

Leading up to the match, Fonix donation options were featured across popular shows like The Chase, Tipping Point, and The Warm-Up Show. The excitement culminated in a live event at Stamford Bridge where supporters from across the UK united to give generously.

etc"

Today's interims confirm trading will be in line with the previously flagged revised expectations.

Most importantly, the order book continues to soar - up to £908m from £831m (the full year position was £889m).

Every sector is trading well apart from Rail. This is temporary, and even here there are green shoots in reactive and planned maintenance services. And RNWH's increased presence in Rail means there is a great opportunity for RNWH as the sector ramps up in the next few months.

The potential for Water looks massive, and there is similar upside in nuclear, electrification, 5G, onshore wind, highways etc.

I'm very happy to hold for the long-term and the likely big bounce at the first signs of reports from other companies of Rail starting to motor.

Wow. That explains the news hiatus! Looks like extremely good news on the face of it.

VLG get £53m for assets with a book value of just £28.9m, so a £24.1m gain, and achieve a sale at 11 times FY24 EBITDA, which seems a very good price indeed.

VLG still retain many of their most successful/high potential brands and will grow them accordingly whilst bringing in others, and will have a highly focused business going forward which will be perhaps easier to sell to a larger entity at the right time:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/venture-life-VLG/share-news/Venture-Life-Group-PLC-Cash-sale-of-CDMO-operations/96032246

A notable €1m contract win today by Mottech for the renewal and expansion of an irrigation system in Italy.

And this is just the first phase, with MWE expecting "the contract will be extended to cover the next phase".

Assuming this is successful, imagine the potential for further such projects across Italy and then France (where Mottech are already selling) etc....

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/mti-wireless-edge-MWE/share-news/MTI-Wireless-Edge-Limited-Significant-Mottech-Contract-Win/96032232

- April CPO revenues 5% higher than last year even despite atypically high sales volumes last year due to stock clearances

- cashews continuing to improve and on track for their "first-ever EBITDA-positive result"

- CPO "year-to-date revenue up approximately 30% year-on-year"

Both divisions are definitively moving in the right direction at last.

Typo - News Corp now have a £1m stake in BBSN.....

More news today - the acquisition of The Fifth Group from News UK has been completed.

Another vote of confidence here, with News Corp confirming they're now 3% shareholders in BBSN with around a £2m stake:

"News Corporation is now interested in 40,000,000 ordinary shares in the Company, representing 3.0% of the Company's issued ordinary share capital":

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/brave-bison-BBSN/share-news/Brave-Bison-Group-PLC-Completion-of-Acquisition-of-The-Fifth-Group/96023419

Update from Cavendish FYI:

"Shearwater Group*

New contract win supports forecasts

Shearwater has announced a £4.4m contract providing data security solutions for a major telecom and media company. The three-year agreement is for Shearwater’s subsidiary Brookcourt Solutions to deliver a high-specification data-centric security and compliance platform in partnership with one of its main technology vendors. The revenue and COGS in respect of the contract will be recognised in FY25, and the company states that this supports current market expectations for the year. We make no change to our forecasts. This latest contract win follows a significant £8.4m contract extension announced on 2 April 2025, and taken together these contract wins contribute to a de-risking of our FY25E forecasts.

— Strengthening Shearwater’s position as a provider of solutions to blue-chip customers: The news of the new contract reinforces Brookcourt’s reputation as a trusted partner for blue-chip customers, who require scalable and regulation-ready solutions for data security. We believe that recent news reports in the UK about corporate systems breaches serve to highlight the importance of these security

solutions, though the recent UK hacking attacks impacted different industry customer groups than telecoms and media.

— Valuation upside: Shearwater benefits from profitable and cash-generative operations and a strong balance sheet. We are forecasting £5.6m of year-end net cash for FY25E, which compares with the current market cap of just £7.5m. Our target price of 78.0p represents a target EV/sales multiple of 0.3x and we believe this is a conservative target for a company with strong prospective growth in revenue and profit."

Looks an excellent move, diversifying the company's activities yet enbling substantial synergies in terms of cross-selling etc.

Note that the deal is expected to be "materially accretive to underlying earnings per share" - and presumably immediately since it doesn't say over the course of the first full year of ownership etc.

I also note that the news story on Sky states the equity raise will be "small", which is good news.

Finally, the "strategic investment of £4 million from MiniMBA founder Mark Ritson who would, on completion, become a Top 5 shareholder" is a terrific vote of confidence:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/brave-bison-BBSN/share-news/Brave-Bison-Group-PLC-Response-to-Press-Speculation/96022044

Encouraging news - the CEO has transferred almost £50,000 of shares held by him into his and his wife's ISAs at 82p. A sensible move to protect future gains from CGT.

He did the same thing last October - on a much larger scale for £332,000 - at 67.5p, so that was a good precursor of things to come for the now 83p share price:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/croma-security-solutions-CSSG/share-news/Croma-Security-Solutions-Group-PLC-Director-PCA-Dealings/96016618

Three large late buy trades from yesterday just reported today - they total 761,374 shares, all bought at the full 236p offer price, i.e almost £1.8m of buys.