Cavendish : Buy with 300p target6 Feb 2025 12:28
Cavendish's recent note with the 300p target price concluded as follows:
"A robust investment case: As we explain in more depth in our FY24 results report, Fonix is focused upon leveraging its highly scalable, cloud-based platform to expand with existing clients and win new clients as mobile payments continue to scale. The structural strength of the platform is demonstrated by no churn from major customers since inception, and it is diligently expanding its market-leading technology outside of the UK, including becoming the market leader for interactive services in Ireland less than one year after FY23 launch.
We expect that any upside to our conservative forecasts would benefit from strong operational gearing through to EFCF, which would be returned to shareholders through the progressive dividend policy and potential additional shareholder returns."
"Strong 1H, special DPS of 3p, forecasts reiterated
Fonix’s 1H25 trading update shows +7% gross profit growth, +7% adjusted EBITDA growth, a special DPS of 3p, and a confident outlook that leads us to conservatively reiterate our FY25 and FY26 forecasts. Gross profit growth of +7% to £9.8m reflects continued growth across both mobile payments and messaging, or at least mid-single digit gross profit growth in both the UK and Rest of Europe, and firm control of costs has driven adjusted EBITDA growth of +7% to £7.8m.
Operationally, Fonix has continued to make strong progress with the win and recent launch of interactive services with News UK, the launch of PayFlex, which enables the recovery of failed mobile payments by integrating Apple Pay, Google Pay, and PayPal, and the launch of DonationPortal, which enables charities to create custom-branded donation pages. Internationally, contracts are now in place with all major mobile network operators in Portugal, Fonix has formed a strategic partnership with Portuguese telecom NOS that will enable Fonix to accelerate growth with NOS’ broadcast customers, and Portuguese services are expected to launch in the coming months.
Further international expansion is also accelerating, with numerous early discussions with mobile network operators and broadcast customers across multiple European markets, and CFO Michael Foulkes has been appointed Chief Financial & Operating Officer to drive platform expansion in new countries, alongside new product delivery. The strong 1H progress leads us to conservatively reiterate our FY25E and FY26E gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and EFCF, with the potential for upside as growth accelerates following the launch in Portugal.
The 3p special DPS is then expected to be paid in February, and leads to the change in our FY25E and FY26E net cash. We look forward to further detail at 1H results in March, further updates on international launches, and potential additional shareholder returns, and at 206p, Fonix is trading on 12-month forward multiples of 12x EV/EBITDA with +9% growth, 18x P/E, 5% EFCF yield, and 5