Member Info for rivaldo

Agreed. Good to see some blue today - bonkers share price now imho given the positive trading on top of the fundamentals.

With 5.2c EPS forecast this year, plus 7.5p per share of forecast cash at the end of December, MWE are on an ex-cash P/E of just 8.2, falling to 7.6 for the year starting in just over 2 months' time.

An encouraging RNS. Given the slow and steady share price fall reassurance and confirmation of good trading may be all that the market requires to bolster confidence and get the share price back to 20p.

If there's been a large seller, they may be cleared out by now/soon, particularly with 3.8m shares traded already today.

Zeus today affirm their 32p valuation, and summarise:

"GMS has released its Q3 2025 update, reporting further positive progress on day rates, recovery in utilisation, and reiteration of full year EBITDA guidance, the ongoing focus on deleveraging, and the company’s shareholder return intentions."

"This performance represents a strong quarter for GMS – EBITDA for Q3 2025 was US$30.7m, from US$25.2m in Q2 and US$25.6m in Q1. We knew GMS saw lower utilisation in H1 due to vessel drydocking and also regional conflict in June, and hence utilisation for Q3 has recovered as the company has got its fleet back to work more fully. On day rates, we know the company continues to roll vessels from older contracts at lower day rates onto newer ones, driving ongoing gains in average day rates: we have seen this continue in Q3 2025, and expect this theme to remain ongoing in future quarters."

"Conclusion.

GMS operates a fleet of 14 liftboats, which it leases to clients primarily in the Middle East but also more widely including in Europe. The company's vessels are used for both offshore maintenance and to assist with EPC projects, across oil and gas and wind.

Global upstream underinvestment in the late 2010's/early 2020's continues to reverse, including key GMS clients ADNOC, Saudi Aramco and Qatar Energy pursuing new activity programmes. The Middle East, with its favourable geology, shallow water and extensive oil services availability is very competitive as a global oil and gas province, making it a focus for increased upstream spending, even at moderate oil prices. This is all contributing to an ongoing tight market for GMS's liftboats, with utilisation (92% in 2024, from 94% in 2023 and 88% in 2022) and day rates (US$33.1k/day in 2024, from US$30.3k/day in 2023 and US$27.5k/day in 2022) continuing to support revenues overall.

We forecast this to drive ongoing increases in GMS EBITDA (US$87.5m reported for 2023, US$100.4m for 2024, and US$101-109m then guided for 2025 and US$105-115m targeted for 2026), helping continue to pay down debt and drive a transfer of value from debt to equity (underpinned by the asset value of GMS's fleet).

The company is also now looking to begin returning value to shareholders by establishing dividends and/or buybacks in due course, alongside potentially adding further vessels. In anticipation of more new contract wins, potential further guidance upgrades, and periodic financial results to highlight all this to the market, we have a positive outlook for the shares and value them at 32p."

Excellent news today. Auctus Advisors today note that "The pace of ramp-up has exceeded forecasts".

They also state that:

"A confirmed acquisition of bp’s interests in Culzean — assuming TotalEnergies and NEO NEXT do not exercise their pre-emption rights by 12 November 2025 — would be transformational for Serica. Notably, our valuation does not yet reflect any contribution from this potential transaction.

•We maintain our target price of £3.05 per share. Based on the current share price, we project a FY25 dividend yield of approximately 9%."

"Cumulatively, free cash flow over the 2026–2028 period under this conservative pricing scenario is estimated at ~US$900 mm—nearly equivalent to the company’s current market capitalization."

Good to see CAPD doing an Investor Meet presentation on 23rd October at 9.00 am:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/capital-CAPD/share-news/Capital-Limited-Investor-Presentation-via-Investor-Meet-Company/97036738

Great to see another portfolio company (Amprologix) raising money successfully, and that it's "also positioning itself for a Series A funding round with the intention of raising £5 million".

No mention of whether FIPP followed its money. But I'd have thought it's likely FIPP's holding could be worth significantly more after a successful Series A funding round? Particularly given the prospects of treating MRSA and/or C.difficile:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/frontier-ip-FIPP/share-news/Frontier-IP-Group-plc-Amprologix-raises-740-000-in-Pre-Series-A-round/97036737

As per his post yesterday afternoon:

Https://www.nakedtrader.co.uk/

"One such was Begbies Traynor. Share price was about 122p at the retreat, we liked it but figured it was at a short-term top with lots of sellers on level 2.

We decided around 110-112p was a trade to be price where it had formed a base previously and if that failed we’d get out quick and come back at 100p.

So as it got to one of the ballpark prices I bought a few. No good? Then get out quick and try again at a quid.

It’s an insolvency practitioner so it does well when others struggle.

At a low pe and peg, a 4pc plus dividend and pretty safe, looks a good point to tuckaway.

We wondered too whether one day it could attract a bid from rival FRP which pretty much does the same thing but is larger."

Panmure Liberum's note yesterday, with the increased target price of 212p, noted a couple of things from the RNS re Reko Diq which haven't been posted, namely:

(1) The mining contract "has been expanded to include additional development equipment, which will add $10m to the runrate revenue in H1 26"

(2) "Capital has been awarded a three-year contract, with an option for the customer to extend another three years, to operate an onsite lab. This should be operational in H1 26, and the testing will need to increase again when the mine goes into production in FY 28."

Also worth noting that the $73.9m of investments now easily surpass forecast year end $63.4m net debt.

Panmure summarise:

"Upgrade driven by MSALABS

Q3 revenue increased 0.2% yoy with strength in Drilling and MSALABS offset by the expected impact of the transition of contracts in Mining, which is now ramping up. We increase our FY 25 and FY 26 EBITDA by 3-4%, with increased guidance for MSALABS and a narrowing of the range. We reduce our FY 25 net debt estimate from $65.0m to $63.4m, lower than the revised value of the investments. 1) Drilling is growing modestly, with limited investment in the year; 2) At Mining, Reko Diq continues to ramp-up and an additional $10m of revenue has been won; 3) MSALABS delivered record quarterly revenue and is profitable, and has won a new contract at Reko Diq; 4) Investments recorded $22.5m of investment gains and is now valued at $73.9m; and 5)

We remain positive about the outlook for capex in Copper and Gold. In terms of valuation, our TP is increased from 194p to 212p to reflect the earnings upgrades and increased Investment valuation."

According o the poster "acuere" elsewhere, the Guardian article on 2D Photonics is not entirely accurate, though still of course very encouraging. He's posted (having got commentary from FIPP by the sound of it):

"Firstly they are expecting to announce that they’ve been awarded a grant this year.

“2D Photonics (operating as CamGraPhIC) is in discussions with Italy's Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy regarding potential support for its new activities through the National Chips Fund.”

And then secondly there is a proposed equity funding round but that won’t be completed until next year."

He also posts:

"I hadn’t realised before what a big deal this Italian Chip Fund is. Last year the Italian government announced they investing €10bn to continue building up the semiconductor market in Italy. STMicro received a €2bn grant.

“The aid will take the form of an approximately €2 billion direct grant to ST to support its investment worth €5 billion in total. The project will enable the development of a large-scale manufacturing facility for high performance SiC chips, based on 200mm diameter wafers that will be processed into modules and other devices used for instance by the automotive industry, in Europe and globally.”

Given 2D Photonics Italian roots, it’s easy to see them winning a €200/300m grant. I understand we’re just awaiting the lawyers checking the paperwork before this made official."

And regarding valuation:

"I have no confirmed figures, but say a £200m grant and using a current value of £50m. Would that suggest a £250m value for 2D?

And if FIPP holding at 10%. That would be one holding with huge prospects worth £25m or roughly double current mkt cap."

Great to see AEO breaking out chart-wise.

Back to 100p is a reasonable target, but with a mere £6m m/cap, and a sizeable cash pile, there's potential for much more given that the continued success at Cannes is leading to global expansion as exemplified by the RNS re momentum in North America, i.e from the interims:

"opening doors to other major international events, including the World Economic Forum in Davos, Art Basel Miami, CES in Las Vegas and SXSW Austin"

Good to see a 5k buy at almost the full 65p offer price late yesterday.

Panmure Liberum have today raised their target price to 212p:

"our TP is increased from 194p to 212p to reflect the earnings upgrades and increased Investment valuation"

An excellent update today.

I bought a couple of tranches on the bell this morning for the first time ever, having followed IOF for years.

With 2.62p EPS forecast next year, IOF will soon be on a P/E of only 9.5. Cheap.

More interestingly, the PEG will be at just 0.28, which is incredibly good value.

With iodine in relatively short supply, increasing demand and a seemingly solid iodine price set to continue at pretty high levels, IOF looks set fair for a re-rating at some point, certainly much closer to Canaccord's 40p price target.

Today's Q3 trading update is excellent. In particular:

- revenue expectations for this year have been raised again

- the investment portfolio has increased by almost 50% in the quarter! It's now worth $73.9m....

- every division is doing well and growing nicely

- MSA Labs is finally profitable, with revenues accelerating and guidance raised

- Reko Diq ramp up is going well

- in Drilling, given "strong demand across the sector, all rig orders for 2026 have already been placed"

With such momentum, and such a strong outlook, it's time for a strong re-rating here, especially with so much of the m/cap backed up by (1) the investment portfolio and (2) tangible assets.

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/capital-CAPD/share-news/Capital-Limited-Q3-2025-Trading-Update/97018618

Good news for RNWH's involvement in water infrastructure with this 8-year framework appointment:

Https://envolve-infrastructure.co.uk/updates/envolve-infrastructure-awarded-wessex-water-framework-2-2-2/

"Envolve Infrastructure secures appointment to the Wessex Water Design and Build Minor Works Framework

Date Posted: 08.10.2025

Envolve Infrastructure is proud to announce its appointment to the Wessex Water Design and Build Minor Works Framework working with YTL Construction (UK). The framework agreement supports the delivery of Wessex Water’s capital programme across both potable and waste-water infrastructure.

The framework, which will run for up to eight years, reinforces Envolve Infrastructure’s position as a trusted partner in the water sector and strengthens its long-term collaboration with Wessex Water well into AMP8 and beyond.

The award will see Envolve Infrastructure assist in designing and delivering essential projects that support resilience, sustainability, and service excellence for Wessex Water’s customers and communities across the region.

etc"

Ta SGD27 - not just the mention for FIPP in that Guardian article, but terrific validation for FIPP - whose entire m/cap is now just £11.3m - if 2D Photonics and its subsidiary Camgraphic get this funding away, given that FIPP own 20% from memory.

Here's the link, with the hat tip for FIPP and an interview with 2D Photonics' CEO Ben Jensen:

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/13/lab-to-fab-are-promises-of-a-graphene-revolution-finally-coming-true

Extract:

"More promising are the graphene-based optical microchips developed by 2D Photonics’ subsidiary CamGraPhIC, which are based on research done at the University of Cambridge and Italy’s CNIT research institute.

At the moment, silicon-photonics microchips convert electrical data into optical data to transmit it through fibre-optic cables, but the firm says its graphene chips deliver more data in the same period of time and at far lower cost.

They consume 80% less energy and can operate in a much wider range of temperatures, reducing the need for costly water- and energy-hungry cooling systems for AI datacentres.

Sending data via silicon also causes delays. Jensen compares it to a 16-lane motorway that suddenly narrows to a single lane because of roadworks, forcing everything to slow down. Graphene photonics, he says, are like a motorway with hundreds of lanes.

“What we’ve solved is the ability to grow consistent ultra high-performance graphene and to build it into a device,” he says. “And don’t forget, this is a material that’s one atom thick. It’s insanely difficult to do this.”

CamGraPhIC was founded in 2018 by the Cambridge nanotechnology professor Andrea Ferrari, who also runs the Cambridge graphene centre, and Marco Romagnoli, who leads advanced photonics at CNIT in Pisa and is the startup’s chief scientific officer.

Its parent, 2D Photonics, has just secured funding of £25m from backers including Italy’s sovereign wealth fund, Nato and Sony innovation funds, Bosch Ventures and the UK’s Frontier IP Group, and uses a former Pirelli photonics research site in Pisa. It plans to create a pilot manufacturing site in the Milan area to produce 200mm-wide wafers at scale, and is confident of obtaining the necessary funding of €317m (£276m) by the end of the year.

Aside from datacentres, the company’s chips can be used in high-performance computing, 5G and 6G mobile data systems, aircraft systems, autonomous cars, advanced digital radar and satellite-free space communications."

Extract from The Times today - Jefferies seem to be suggesting there are more deals in the pipeline:

Https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/serica-energy-bp-north-sea-assets-sw9gwfwcq

"Analysts at Panmure Liberum said: “If the deal goes ahead then this would increase Serica’s net production by circa 50 per cent and the wider diversification would reduce the volatility in production.

“This deal would materially increase the size of the business and on top of the recent acquisitions will make Serica one of the largest independents in the North Sea.”

Jefferies described Culzean as “an accelerator on top of Prax” and said it understands Serica is active in other deal processes in the basin."

Https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-tristel-kainos-anglo-american-renew-watches-of-switzerland/a2476050?page=4

"Acquisitive Renew driving forward, says Berenberg

There is ‘significant opportunity’ at Renew as it benefits from structural growth drivers and ongoing acquisitions, says Berenberg.

Analyst James Bayliss retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £12.00 on the infrastructure engineer, which was trading up 2$, or 18p, at 937p after the acquisition of Emerald Power, a specialist in overhead electricity line maintenance and repair for £12.3m.

Bayliss said the purchase ‘strengthens the group’s position in the regulated electricity distribution sector – an area with significant attraction given the government’s target of decarbonising the electricity grid by 2030’.

The shares currently trade at 12.8 times full-year price/earnings and Bayliss said there is ‘significant opportunity for investors in Renew’ and he noted the ‘strong structural growth drivers in the context of modest 5% outer year organic growth forecasts, and a strong balance sheet to support further potential M&A under the group’s decentralised acquisition model’."

Shore Capital have published a new research note this morning, entitled "Buying opportunity".

Which says it all!

With a 100p target price, they conclude:

"Outlook and valuation:

We made no changes to any of our group forecasts on the back of the H1 results. We continue to believe that each of the divisions has growth drivers with, in our view, Mottech potentially seeing stronger demand than we forecast for the longer term, as its software improves the efficiency of irrigation systems, while reducing the cost of operating them. We also expect to see continued good demand for the defence-related products and services of Summit/PSK. Finally, the Antenna division is also likely to benefit from increased defence spending as well as the rollout of 5G across the world. We are encouraged by the likely much-improved EBIT margin for Mottech in H2 and the confidence that Antennas and Summit continue to be well-placed to deliver improved profitability as FY25F progresses.

We maintain a 100p fair value on the basis of a DCF analysis, which is more than corroborated were MTI to achieve a peer group average of the FY25F EV/sales multiple of 2.6x and EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.4."

Looks a very good £12.3m acquisition:

- immediately earnings-enhancing

- a cheap multiple at only 4.1 times EBITDA

- further consideration depends on performance

- expands RNWH's presence in electricity distribution, which has massive investment coming its way (£22.2 billion through to 2028)

Notable too that today's RNS notes RNWH "continues to evaluate a pipeline of further acquisitions":

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/renew-RNWH/share-news/Renew-Holdings-PLC-Acquisition-of-Emerald-Power-Ltd/96991641

Encouraging sector post from CAPD referencing new research from Jefferies:

Https://x.com/_CapitalLimited/status/1976539921985802418

"Recent data released by Jefferies indicates they are extremely optimistic regarding exploration activity, with their analysis suggesting it's picking up strongly.

“We view the Exploration cycle very positively. It has been an extended down cycle of around three years, which when combined with the incentivising levels of Gold/Copper pricing, the general running down of reserves over the past ten years (leading to declining mine lives) and the structural need for significant additional Critical Minerals reserves (including Copper) all leads to a strong and multi-year up cycle.”

The increase in Junior equity raisings during 2025 back to 2021 levels also suggests that Exploration Activity will significantly improve across FY26-28.

Jeffries' indications a multi-year upswing is coming are extremely positive for our drilling and laboratory businesses, with increased activity translating into increased demand for drilling programs and higher sample volumes for analysis, alongside longer-term sustained demand."

Another £45,200 of shares bought back at 2260p (2,000 shares):

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/volvere-VLE/share-news/Volvere-PLC-Transaction-in-Own-Shares/96991584