Member Info for rivaldo

The usual short-term traders providing a terrific buying opportunity here imho. Now rising nicely after the traders sold off initially and may well end up blue at this rate....

A short and sweet AGM update, with trading nicely in line with expectations, improved organic growth ahead of last year and "positive momentum" across the group with an H2 weighting.

Can't ask for more than that at this early stage of the year.

Agreed, encouraging numbers yet again. PBT is up 11% year on year this Q1, which is pretty impressive in this environment. As you say, this is ahead of the broker forecast.....

Most importantly, future prospects remain outstanding with Own Book Origination up 30% and Gross Lending up 8%, plus Secured Lending now up to 95%.

And arrears and write-offs remain once more at remarkably consistent and low levels.

TIME continue to produce the goods, and the stock market valuation should steadily improve.

Finally there's also the statement that this year's result will once again be "at least" in line with expectations....

Cavendish have a 300p valuation for FNX:

"Valuation

We value Fonix at 300p based on 18x FY26E EV/EBITDA or 3.5% FY26E EFCF yield, and it is currently trading on 13x FY26E EV/EBITDA with +12% EBITDA

growth, 4.8% EFCF yield, and 4.3% dividend yield"

They summarise (as posted elsewhere by Red Ninja):

"Fonix (FNX): CORP

Robust FY25 with excellent strategic progress

Fonix’s FY25 results show robust +4% and +6% growth in gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, we reiterate our FY26E forecasts at this point, and the outlook highlights that Fonix enters FY26 with the strongest growth platform in its history, with an opportunity ahead of it that is larger and more exciting than at any point since IPO.

Today’s results confirm full commercial launch in Portugal in mid-September, and also highlight that management is establishing legal entities and entering into contracts in two further European countries, which we expect could transform gross profit in the coming years, as we believe one market is similar in size to the UK and the second is similar in size to Portugal. At the same time, management has invested through FY25 in the innovative PayFlex, CompsPortal, and RCS solutions, which extend Fonix’s capabilities beyond SMS, and we expect each offers the opportunity to generate over £2m of gross profit pa in the medium term. After +4% FY25 gross profit growth, with +4% in the UK and +8% in Rest of Europe including Ireland, we expect an acceleration in FY26E group gross profit growth to +12%, driven by expansion in Portugal and +4% growth in the UK, where we currently include less than £0.3m from the three new solutions.

We then expect +12% growth in adjusted EBITDA to £16.2m after +6% growth in FY25, with FY26E including opex growth of +15% to £4.7m to accelerate future growth. FY25 underlying EFCF of £10.0m has driven net cash to £9.9m, including £3m of special and £8.5m of ordinary dividend payments, and at this point we reiterate FY26E EFCF, net cash, and ordinary DPS of £10.5m, £11.3m, and 9.3p.

As management then gains greater visibility on the commercially sensitive launch into the two additional international markets, we will introduce FY27E forecasts in the coming months. We look forward to further updates on the international expansion, the traction of the new solutions, and potential additional shareholder returns."

Results confirm that last year was solid - and that the outlook is excellent.

FNX actually describe the three new products being introduced as "transformational".

The expansion into Portugal is going well, with a major commercial rollout happening this month. Plus FNX are "entering into contracts with broadcasters and mobile operators in two further European markets, with additional geographies identified on our roadmap".

FNX "now move into FY26 with the strongest growth platform in our history", and:

"FY26 will mark the start of an acceleration in growth, greater diversification of our earnings, and sustained long-term value creation. Above all, we believe the opportunity ahead of us is larger and more exciting than at any point since IPO".

And the final 5.9p dividend means a total of 11.8p per share of dividends has been paid out since February '25.....

Another RNS today shows Lord Ashcroft buying again - he's now crossed back above 24% by buying another 40k shares:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/brave-bison-BBSN/share-news/Brave-Bison-Group-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/96865222

Today's RNS shows Lord Ashcroft with 22,976,040 shares. This is over 340,000 shares more than his previously declared holding of 22,633,040 shares per the 17th July RNS.

His holding percentage has dipped below 24% presumably due to the 1.6m shares issued for the MTM acquisition.

It's encouraging to see Ashcroft continuing to increase his shareholding.

Looking strong, and particularly good to see the published spread reduced to a mere 60p at 2240p-2300p (although likely even less when actually buying/selling).

CAPD have increased their holding in Asara Resources to a nice round 200m shares per a new holdings announcement:

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02995920-3A676767&v=c2533a54e2514fb77a8f93f84db686e1125273e9

CAPD participated in a placing in Asara in August at A$0.05 and bought a further 43m shares at a cost of just over £1m.

Since then Asara's shares have risen by 50% and are now at A$0.076. This makes CAPD's holding now worth £7.5m.

With WIA now worth £40m+, Asara worth £7.5m and Sanu rising again and now worth over £4.3m CAPD's gold investment portfolio is per a knowledgeable poster elsewhere now likely to be worth some $72m - i.e CAPD is now around a net cash/neutral position given a similar or even lower level of borrowings.

From today's Sunday Times - should be good news for SQZ. Extracts for non-subscribers:

Https://www.thetimes.com/article/89ad570b-44dd-4fdf-8700-ee6d2ed78048

"Labour looks to water down North Sea drilling ban

Ed Miliband is expected to allow exploration next to existing sites to increase fossil fuel production without breaking a manifesto pledge"

"Ed Miliband is poised to soften the government’s position on North Sea oil and gas exploration as he seeks to appease Labour’s union backers and see off the growing threat from Reform UK.

The energy secretary is under mounting pressure to dilute his party’s ban on new drilling to help to boost jobs and smooth the transition to renewables.

Several sources familiar with the discussions expect him to approve “tie-backs”, allowing new fields to be explored via adjacent existing sites.

This is expected to lead to the extraction of new reserves of fossil fuels and extend the lifespan of the North Sea oil and gas sector, which supports about 120,000 direct and indirect jobs in the UK. Earlier this year, Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), the industry trade body, warned that 1,000 jobs a month were being lost."

"OEUK believes there are another 7.3 billion barrels within reach of current infrastructure — making them viable as tiebacks. Energy lobbyists estimate this would deliver a £136 billion boost to the economy by the middle of the century."

"Offshore Energies UK commissioned research in June illustrating how to slow the basin’s decline by linking licensed discoveries via tie-backs to the North Sea’s 67 production facilities. Viable accumulations of oil and gas within 50km of current hubs could be developed “quickly and cleanly” through tie-backs, according to OEUK.

These pipelines, most of which are less than 25km-30km long, could play a role in “more cost-effective production”, the North Sea Transition Authority said in July."

Co ckney Rebel's Weekend Review email (sent out after Friday's close) noted that he's now bought his first stake in BBSN.

Hopefully this will bring further interest in here.

New note from Hybridan summarises:

"Positive Progress to a Re-rating

The Affini acquisition, the third acquisition since 2016, has had a strong positive impact on the Interims results to June 2025, while the other divisions achieved either higher or similar revenues to last year. The Group’s revenue is 78% higher at £7.9m and EBITDA increased to £509k compared to £33k.

Recurring Revenues are around 50% which are from service and engineering support, spares, repairs and managed services. The gross profit margin remained steady at 48.7%. The cash generated from operations increased to £0.86m, up from £0.44m so reducing net debt to £1.3m from £1.54m and gearing to 21.2% from 24.0%, which is after financing the Affini acquisition and well within the financial comfort zone.

The business focus remains on the development, supply, and maintenance of technologies for advanced security, communication, surveillance systems while expanding the product range and deepening the customer base in rail, traffic, defence, and critical communications. June’s order book was £6.7m of which £4.8m is scheduled for 2025 and since then, combined orders have been received for £1.5m from Rail which includes RTS and QRO (Traffic). The revenue cover for 2025 is around 92% of forecast and further orders can be expected in the current year and beyond."

Another contract win for Full Circle Wind Services:

Https://www.fullcirclewindservices.com/maintenance-contract-for-senvion-turbines-in-lancashire/

"September 18, 2025

Full Circle Wind Services expands Senvion portfolio with Caton Moor contract in Lancashire

New O&M contract with Thrive Renewables plc covers eight Senvion MM70 turbines at Caton Moor Wind Farm (16 MW).

Contract covers scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, 24/7/365 monitoring.

Support provided by Full Circle’s Livingston logistics hub and UK-based service teams.

Full Circle Wind Services has secured an operations and maintenance contract with Thrive Renewables for Caton Moor Wind Farm in Lancashire, UK. Commissioned in 2006, the site features eight Senvion MM70 turbines with a combined capacity of 16 MW.

The site underwent repowering in 2005, which increased its electricity output sevenfold. Today, Caton Moor generates around 47 million kilowatt-hours annually — enough to power more than 11,000 homes each year.

This agreement marks the first time Full Circle has taken responsibility for this specific Senvion model. It builds on the company’s established track record of Senvion O&M contracts in the UK, further strengthening its expertise across a wide range of turbine platforms.

The contract, which commenced in July 2025, covers scheduled and unscheduled maintenance and 24/7/365 monitoring. It will be supported by Full Circle’s Livingston warehouse and regional service teams. In late July, Full Circle’s wind turbine technicians completed specialist Senvion training at Caton Moor with the support of the wind farm owner Thrive Renewables.

Thrive Renewables is a renewable energy investment company that has been funding, building and operating clean energy projects in the UK for 30 years. The organisation has funded 45 wind, solar, hydro, storage, tidal and geothermal projects, including six that are community-owned.

“We’re delighted to be chosen as the O&M partner for Caton Moor and grateful to Thrive for enabling onsite Senvion training for our technicians. Opportunities like this not only strengthen our technical expertise but also allow us to deliver safer, more efficient, and higher-quality service. Adding the MM70 to our portfolio further enhances our Senvion experience in the UK and expands the range of turbine models we can confidently support.”

etc"

CAPD's largest investment, WIA Gold, is up again to A$0.345, and is now worth over £40m at £40.4m.

This now covers over 20% of CAPD's entire m/cap:

Https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/WIA

Zeus summarise today as follows (extracts):

"Interim results show strong improvement

Petards, a manufacturer and developer of security, communications and surveillance solutions, has announced an encouraging set of interim results this

morning, reporting a material improvement in trading across the board, supported by a full period impact of the Affini acquisition and improved performance in Rail and Defence.

Overall trading is reported to be in line with current expectations, with an order book of £6.7m at 30 June and 92% FY25 revenue cover at the date of

today’s announcement. H1 revenue of £7.9m (+78% YoY) represented 53% of Zeus’ FY25 forecast. Margins benefited from improved operational gearing and robust gross margins, with EBITDA increasing to £509k (H1 24: £33k), delivering a reduction in net debt to £1.3m (FY24: £1.5m).

Leaving forecasts unchanged this morning, we view early signs of a recovery in the Rail division as encouraging, noting that near-term growth opportunities remain within the QRO division as it expands overseas and Affini following recent contract wins. While challenges remain within some of Petard’s end markets, the company is currently well placed to deliver a significantly improved performance in FY25."

" Forecasts left unchanged:

With 92% order cover and more than 50% of full year revenues and EBITDA already achieved within H1, we leave forecasts unchanged, pointing to a significant improvement in EBITDA in FY25 as trading improves. Looking to FY26, we note improving prospects beyond the current year, which include international opportunities in QRO, and look to introduce FY26 forecast as visibility improves further into H2.

 Zeus view: With Petard’s rail and defence markets remaining subdued relative to historic levels, today’s results represent a very encouraging improvement in trading, with the recent acquisition Affini now bedding in well, as reflected in the award of a significant £1m contract earlier this year. While the timing of a recovery in rail and defence is uncertain, there remain material opportunities for upside for both divisions, including the Challenger 3 tank programme, while QRO and Affini continue to trade strongly."

Shore Capital and Canaccord have reiterated their forecasts at 11p EPS and 10.6p EPS respectively.

They both forecast BEG to be in sizeable net cash territory, so there's likely to be more earnings-enhancing acquisitions before long.

Canaccord have a 157p target price, and conclude:

"Valuation and recommendation

Begbies has proven to be a well-run, dependable business, delivering results in line with/slightly ahead of expectations in recent years. We see no reason for this to change, given supportive tailwinds, acquisition potential and strong execution. Begbies trades at 11.5x FY26E P/E falling to 11.2x FY27E P/E, yielding 3.7% rising to 3.9%. The implied upside to our 157p TP is 28% and the TSR is 32%. Maintain BUY"

Agreed nomlungu. To clarify, we already know from the year end trading update that the upcoming results to May'25 will deliver the forecast (after multiple upgrades) 6.5p EPS.

The forecast for the current year to May '26 is 7p EPS. As usual this forecast is reasonably conservative, and TIME are already stating that this year will be "at least in line with market expectations".

So TIME are now on a P/E of only 8.1, and likely much less given the company's history of noting that they're trading "at least" in line and then confirming that actually they're ahead.

I'm very pleased with these results, and particularly with the outlook going forward.

With a £5.2m m/cap, AEO have a £3.1m cash pile (with an average last year of £2.1m), and made a £615,000 underlying PBT to June '25.

Plus we get a rather nice 3p dividend.

Not only has AEO been reducing costs, which will fully benefit the current period, but prospects for sales growth appear excellent, notwithstanding the general economic climate.

AEO have "unprecedented re-bookings already confirmed for 2026" for Cannes, and:

"Our consistent excellence at Cannes is also opening doors to other major international events, including the World Economic Forum in Davos, Art Basel Miami, CES in Las Vegas and SXSW Austin, broadening our commercial footprint and creating significant global opportunities"

And:

"Outlook

•Strong forward visibility, with contracts already signed or in advanced negotiation for 2026 at encouraging levels

•Focus on margin enhancement and efficiency in FY2026, following the completion of the cost reduction and rebalancing programme"

It's not hard to see AEO back at 100p and more imo if the outlook plays out as hoped.

Leo Lithium have confirmed two distributions to shareholders in October and then prior to the end of 2025 totalling 27.4c per share, with a third smaller distribution potentially to come.

The 27.4c equates to around £1.4m into CAPD's coffers, so my complete guesswork was a tad toppy, but it's still nice to have:

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02995099-6A1284530&v=c2533a54e2514fb77a8f93f84db686e1125273e9

Much better H1 results and commentary today, with in particular £860k of operating cash inflows and £509k EBITDA against the £5.2m m/cap.

50% of revenues are now recurring. Order books are healthy, and 92% of the year's forecast revenues have already been secured.

Most importantly, every division is now trading well or (in Rail's case) improving.

QRO looks extremely healthy with intriguing international growth potential. Even Rail has begun to win contracts again during and post-H1.

Dare it be said that PEG is finally starting to look promising....