Member Info for rivaldo

Techinvest's new issue is now out, so it should be OK to post that they had a Buy rec for FNX in their previous issue, which concluded as follows (when the share price was 224p):

"While headline gross profit growth was steadier than in recent periods, this was a year of strong operational progress for Fonix, laying the foundations for the next phase of scalable growth. The company launched a range of add-on products, entered new markets, and deepened its client relationships across multiple sectors, including new wins with GB News and News UK.

Geographic expansion has been identified by the company as a major part of the growth strategy. A full commercial launch in Portugal is expected in September, following a successful June pilot scheme. An operational base is being established in two additional European countries, with broadcaster and carrier engagement underway. There are also plans to enter a third new market, further reducing reliance on the UK market.

We made shares in Fonix a New Buy at 187p in the April issue, commenting on the good opportunities to scale the business through product expansion and geographical diversification. Continue to buy."

Excellent news today. Obviously no figures as it's a framework win/extension and not a specific contract.

But Jan De Nul refer to "multiple projects", and indeed work has already started on "the first project with delivery expected in FY2027" and the "second project will be delivered in FY2028".

I could still buy 230,000 shares online just now at around 6.8p, so I'd assume Schroders still have a rump of stock left. Once this is cleared - and another 1.5m have been traded already today - then there could be a sharp rise here.

CAPD's largest investment, WIA Gold, is up another 7% overnight to A$0.385, and is now worth £45.3m.

Asara also continues to progress at A$0.086, now worth £8.4m.

And Sanu Gold is bouncing nicely, now at C$0.37 and worth £4.8m.

THese three investments alone are now worth £58.5m combined.

A couple of extracts from Panmure's new note FYI, starting with their 194p target price:

"Blended Valuation gives a TP of 194p

Capital trades on a CY 26 EV/EBITDA of 3.3x, which is below peers in both Mining (3.8x) and Drilling (4.0x). However, given a $50m investment portfolio with only $95m of FY 26E net debt, and noting that Lab businesses trade at EV/EBITDA multiples of c.11x, we believe Capital’s Drilling and Mining businesses are being unjustifiably valued at extremely low multiples.

We use four valuation methodologies to which we attribute an equal weight: 1) We use a sum of the parts, which recognises the different characteristics and peer groups for each of Capital’s divisions; 2) We apply CY 26 EV/EBITDA multiples for a broader range of equipment rental companies, reflecting that Capital, with its low exposure to Exploration, should be less cyclical and therefore higher rated than many of its mining peers; 3) We calculate medium term EPS potential of 24c, and apply Capital’s 5-year average P/E of 7.5x; and 4) For the combined peer group we calculate the PB and apply that to Capital; For the first three methods, which are based solely on earnings, we remember to include the valuation for the Investments, and note the recent strength of Asara. Applying equal weight to the four methodologies gives a TP of 194p, representing 88% upside to the share price at close on 01/10/2025 of 103p"

And in summary:

"An attractive business with significant recovery potential

According to third-party data, Capital operates in an estimated $12bn outsourced market. It has an experienced management team. Revenues are diversified across regions and activities, and there is particular strength in Africa and MENA (Egypt and Pakistan), both of which are high growth regions. It has blue chip partnerships and operates on attractive sites. It has a long history of renewals and limited exposure to cyclical exploration. It has an exceptional and industry leading safety record, which is important in the industry. These business model attractions are evident in the financials; our benchmarking shows that Capital has industry leading financial metrics."

We see a positive outlook. Outsourcing makes sense for the customer. As deposits go deeper, resource drilling costs go higher. Historically revenues have been relatively resilient. Contract momentum is strong and we expect high growth from Laboratory Services and Mining, in particular from Reko Diq. The business typically has high margins, high ROCE and strong cash flow. Medium term we believe $134m of adjusted EBITDA or 24c of FD EPS is achievable. The investment portfolio also offers concealed value."

At Shepley Engineers for a former Minister of Transport, with in particular commentary about her understanding of SMRs:

Https://shepleyengineers.co.uk/news/shepley-engineers-appoints-trudy-harrison-as-head-of-business-development/

Extract:

"Her appointment marks a significant step in Shepley’s strategic expansion beyond Cumbria. As Shepley continues to grow its presence across the UK, Trudy will play a pivotal role in driving business development across nuclear, infrastructure, and restoration sectors.

Trudy’s deep understanding of nuclear policy and her longstanding advocacy for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) make her uniquely suited to this role. During her time in Parliament, she championed SMRs as a key component of Britain’s clean energy future, working closely with industry and government to promote innovation and investment in modular reactor technology."

Good to see the Naked Trader buying in here as of his update last Thursday afternoon:

"Brave Bison came up a bit and I bought some of those.

Lots seems to be going for this trendy marketing outfit.

If it hits the forecast of £8m profit and a bit of cash it will begin to look rather cheap.

Lord Ashcroft who is a shrewd operator now has 24pc of the shares and bought more recently.

Also Downing Venture Capital bought as well.

It’s buying up other companies and raised guidance for the next couple of years.

If it carries on like this, shares could with patience, easily have 50pc upside.

It’s a small cap, so can get volatile if smaller investors get bored.

Overall looks a nice isa tuckaway and I expect to hold for a good while. "

a poster called thebd11 has just posted elsewhere this summary of a meeting he's just had with the ceo and fd - here's a link as it's extremely informative:

https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=35600638&from=4395

a brief update from ****neyrebel in his weekend review fyi:

"carclo, car, a little note to say on tuesday, ceo frank doorenbosh purchased 50k company shares at 59p. about the last point the ceo could buy at before the interims closed period. this follows the cfo buying 10k a week earlier. just 2p away from a break out to a 7 year high."

Shore Capital say Buy with a 1350p price target:

Https://www.defenseworld.net/2025/10/02/renew-lonrnwh-receives-buy-rating-from-shore-capital.html

In summary then we have three Buy recommendations since the trading statement:

Peel Hunt : 1300p target

Deutsche Bank : 1200p target

Shore Capital : 1350p target

Good news that Stifel have been appointed as joint corporate brokers alongside Cavendish - this is SDI moving up the league table and appointing a prestigious American global investment bank to widen their reach and their shareholder base:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/sdi-SDI/share-news/SDI-Group-PLC-Appointment-of-Joint-Corporate-Broker/96950139

Today's RNS reads extremely well. It certainly reinforces the strong interims and very bullish outlook - AEO's success in North America will be transformational to this £5.6m microcap if it continues at anything like this rate.

Interesting too to see the CEO's comment about the "strong momentum" in BOTH the US and EMEA, and that this is expected to continue into 2026 :

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/aeorema-communications-AEO/share-news/Aeorema-Communications-Plc-Cheerful-Twentyfirst-Momentum-in-N-America/96950140

"Cheerful Twentyfirst Celebrates Continued Momentum in North America, following its busiest September to date.

Aeorema Communications plc (AIM: AEO), a leading strategic communications group, is pleased to announce that its brand experience agency, Cheerful Twentyfirst, has seen consistent and continued momentum in North America over the last three months, following a busy and successful September delivery period.

The agency has closed September following the delivery of an broad array of interesting business events - 40% of which are attributed to net new client relationships. Highlights included producing The Wall Street Journal's large-scale brand activation at the United Nations General Assembly, delivering a multi-day summit for AI-powered advertising client Smartly, and delivering industry-leading conferences such as Climate Week.

In addition, September saw Cheerful Twentyfirst's first major step into brand-to-consumer experiences, with a large-scale immersive concert for Instacart in New York that transported 1,300 attendees "back to 1999 for one night only."

Steve Quah, CEO of Aeorema Communications plc, commented: "September was a landmark month for our global team, delivering for our U.S. client portfolio. It was our privilege to support major returning projects such as Climate Week, while also working with an exciting array of new clients. Cheerful Twentyfirst enters the final three months of the Company's extended 18 month accounting period with strong momentum both in the U.S. and EMEA, and we see this trend continuing into 2026."

"Renew heading for record results

Diverse markets have supported growth at Renew despite the softer start to the year, says Deutsche Bank.

Analyst David Brockton retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £12.00 on the infrastructure engineer, which was trading down 0.44%, or 3.9p, at 897p on Thursday after surging 11% the day as it confirmed it was on course to hit record revenue and profit this year.

‘We believe Renew’s growth has continued to be supported by its diverse markets and services,’ said Brockton.

‘While the group saw a softer start to the year for renewal work in rail, under CP7 (Network Rail’s planned spending document), this has subsequently been more stable, consistent with guidance, alongside increased demand for planned and reactive maintenance.’"

Https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/expert-view-spirax-workspace-jadestone-energy-rank-renew-holdings/a2475381?page=5

Now up a further 3.5p at 87p-90p. Hardly surprising given the still cheap multiple, and lots more to go for imho.

Peel Hunt say Buy and have a 1300p price target:

Https://www.defenseworld.net/2025/10/02/renew-lonrnwh-receives-buy-rating-from-peel-hunt.html

This is a whopping 76 page note just out from Panmure! Lots of weekend reading....

Nice 194p target. Time for the markets to further reassess CAPD - here's the conclusion:

"We initiate on Capital at an interesting time. The redeployment of the majority of the mining fleet from Sukari and Belinga to Reko Diq has adversely impacted utilisation of the mining fleet in FY 25. However, our analysis of key contracts shows the positive impact in FY 26+ from the ramp up at Reko Diq and NGM Drilling, growth at MSALABS and growth from investment in Drilling.

The improving industry outlook, and positive contract momentum, should drive operational leverage and we expect recovery at MSALABS. An adjusted EBITDA margin of 25% and $134m of EBITDA should be achievable in the medium-term. In our benchmarking, Capital compares favourably to its peers. Our blended approach gives a TP of 194p; we initiate with BUY."

Good to see FNX bouncing somewhat, and a buying opportunity imho given the transformational opportunities coming this year and in the future.

Extracts from Cavendish's 21 page update, with a 300p target price:

PayFlex - "The solution has been trialled by multiple major UK broadcasters over summer 2025, and is ready for a full launch across the customer base in autumn 2025"

CompsPortal - "CompsPortal is being launched with one major customer in October 2025, and will be rolled out to others over the coming year"

RCS - "Management views RCS as a major opportunity to bring conversational

commerce to life, with purchases, upgrades and upsells taking place directly within the chat, and expects to launch RCS solutions with customers in FY26"

"Fonix has numerous opportunities in new and existing countries across media, telecoms, charity, gaming, mobile ticketing, parking, dating, and e-mobility, to grow its customer base, TPV, and gross profit"

"— Today’s release then highlights plans to expand in two further European markets, where we believe one market is similar in size to the UK, and the second is similar in size to Portugal. If Fonix can scale in the two new markets at the same pace as its growth in Ireland, then we expect that Fonix would transform its gross profit in the coming years.

— There is then a roadmap of additional geographies, where successful demonstration of the platform’s potential in Portugal and the two new markets, could accelerate further launches as multinational customers and multinational mobile operators advocate the platform’s differentiated solutions"

"Alongside international expansion and product innovation, management has continued to drive growth with existing customers and won new customers through FY25, including:

— The signing of a two-year exclusive agreement with Bauer, which will see Fonix remain as the exclusive provider of Bauer’s premium SMS services in the UK over two years. The contract was announced at H1 25 results, and highlights the deep partnership relationships that Fonix develops with customers, due to mutual trust, shared goals, and a commitment to long-term success.

— The new customer win with News UK, which has led to interactive services being launched across the talkSPORT and Virgin Radio brands, with the potential for further expansion into News UK’s publishing assets.

— The new customer win with GB News, which has demonstrated strong traction, as consumers frequently engage with competitions from the broadcaster"

From today's Times FYI (extracts), with comments from the CEO and CFO:

Https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/energy/article/serica-north-sea-acquisition-prax-energy-dx0zkckpn

"The Aim-quoted oil and gas company said it had struck a “very attractive” $25.6 million deal to buy Prax Upstream from administrators handling the collapse of the energy empire formerly run by the now-fugitive Winston Soosaipillai.

Shares in Serica rose almost 15 per cent on the deal, which will result in it acquiring not only Prax’s existing North Sea business but also further operations that Prax had agreed to buy from TotalEnergies and One-Dyas."

"Martin Copeland, Serica’s chief financial officer, told investors he had “a lot of sympathy for” the problems Prax had faced running the Lindsey refinery, but these had “nothing to do with” its North Sea business.

“Operating refineries in the UK or in western Europe is a very, very difficult business today. There were a lot of costs being layered onto them,” he said. “We essentially have been able to slightly take advantage of that situation and get what we consider to be a very attractive acquisition.”

He said that “the people who’ve been running the Prax Upstream business are very well known, seasoned North Sea operating folks” who would transfer to Serica and would be “additive” to the business as it grew."

"The business it is acquiring includes the Lancaster field, which Prax acquired through the Hurricane deal and Chris Cox, Serica chief executive, said was “run very efficiently”.

Serica will also acquire assets Prax had agreed to buy from TotalEnergies and One-Dyas, comprising a 40 per cent operated interest in the Greater Laggan Area, a 10 per cent interest in the Catcher Field and a 5.21 per cent interest in the Golden Eagle Area Development.

The Greater Laggan Area stake includes operatorship of the Shetland Gas plant, the newest onshore gas processing facility in the UK. Cox said Prax had already “put together a pretty strong team” to take over these assets. He said that it had had to move “very fast” to get the deal agreed. “It was a struggle, and it’s great to get it over the line.”

Serica shares closed up 25¼p, or 14.6 per cent, at 197½p."

Including an interview with the CEO and CFO:

Https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/time-is-ticking-well-26-09-25

Completely bizarre share price movement here - there has to be a seller desperate for cash out there.

With 7p EPS forecast for the year ending next May, and that forecast likely to be shown up as conservative once again, there's room on a P/E of 7.4 for at least 50% upside.

And more than 100% upside according to Cavendish, who have a 112p price target.

Following an £11k buy at 2,345p this morning just reported.

Another contract win, this time for $1.5m, and all to be delivered before 31st December so will fully benefit the coming year and underpin expectations.

Very encouraging too to see that this contract win is in:

"the growing ports and harbours development sector, an area that represents a significant growth opportunity for the Group as it extends its asset protection expertise beyond offshore energy into wider marine infrastructure applications":

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/tekmar-TGP/share-news/Tekmar-Group-PLC-Contract-Award/96920445

Given the hiatus in Rail today's year end update is excellent:

- trading nicely in line

- record revenues and operating profits

- net cash, well ahead of market expectations

- and, in particular, record order books

Good to see the mention of the "pipeline of potential acquisition targets", which suggests more are on the way.

A hint that Rail is improving should see the share price recover fully back to 1150p and more:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/renew-RNWH/share-news/Renew-Holdings-PLC-Year-End-Trading-Update-Notice-of-Results/96920368

OT : GuitarSolo, apologies for not replying before today's update - I don't check in to the LSE bb very often!