Member Info for rickyroman

...just been listening to Jeremy Vine on Radio2 discussing the fires in Oz and floods in the UK. Here in SW France, the Dordogne is now lapping at the roadside from the recent biblical downpours - not good.
With Trump and Scott Morrison in denial and the Chinese still funding, Hasina still has a window to get Phulbari away, but for how much longer before public opinion turns too hostile.
Bangladesh desperately needs electricity, the other projects seem mired in controversy or poor management + a deep sea port is needed to bring the coal imports in.
A last roll of the dice to get this project done, I would guess even her advisers will be saying we need Phulbari for the future and then we can have a moratorium on any future coal fired generation.
All to play for and I think the wait is coming to an end...…...

Newman… 'they're beginning to get on my nerves, who are those guys' ....

…...probably a very wise move and with the Madrid talks having been a flop. the climate activists would have loved a platform for a noisy protest. GT would have no doubt turned up for a photo opportunity.
Worth looking at the Adani coal mining project Carmichael, in Queensland. Coal production / consumption will continue to rise in Asia for at least the next couple of decades. The Aussies say they are playing the game, miss their targets and then stick two fingers up to the world....ha ha ha.....

….just having a look at what happened last week, I see we just inched away from the 11p buy. AGM next week could be interesting, be nice to get a bit of 'meat on the bones' of our potential partners in Bangla, particularly the miner.
AAOG - Kilkenny timed it well with their sale of GCM stock, but AAOG 16p to .65 in twelve months sounds disastrous.
Reading the blurb from the directors, all the usual classic AIM phrases - 'we continue to explore' and as for the water injection stuff to get 400bpd, absolute disaster in the making, costs will be astronomical for such a small return.
Oh yes, and they will run out of cash shortly...

….you're on the wrong board john 12345678 - ordinal, what's that all about ????

… no new coal-fired power stations after 2020.
Bangladesh better get a hurry on then. Not sure the Chinese take any notice, Trump isn't even attending the Climate Change congress. However, we do have two weeks of this in Madrid, so guess Bangla energy team will be keeping a low profile.

,,,had a quick skim through the document, still a few major hurdles to overcome, but Q2 2020 sounds plausible for a presentation / decision from the GOB.
One thing for sure, this is a massive project, but as the FT said, whether you like it or not, the Chinese are very good at their coal-fired power stations.
We have the right partners.

'funds due now' - so Bees, you think there is a placing coming.
I will be very interested to se the pitch for these funds and at what price.

...without some solid contractual news - 8p.
Exactly two years since last raise @ 30p + and it's now half that.
Will have to be a good story, but its not going to happen - yet.

sounds great, all these wonderful Chinese power stations being build and financed by Beijing.
50% - but what if we are in the 50% not being built and financed by China.
On the other hand, it seems impossible to believe that Bangladesh is planning / building all this capacity without using its own fuel. When Hasina looks at the spreadsheets, even she is going to have to recognise that importing vast quantities of coal is going to hammer their balance of payments + at some point, the debts / loans to China, Japan etc...will need to be repaid.
As for the carbon bomb - do we really think China cares, they look across the Pacific at Trump and his fracking frenzy...………..nah, they'll just get on with their B&I initiative. …..ignore the sceptics and the activists.
C'mon Prime Minister Hasina - sign off the Phulbari project and ignore world opinion too.

9 hrs ago......

China is set to add new coal-fired power plants equivalent to the EU’s entire capacity, as the world’s biggest energy consumer ignores global pressure to rein in carbon emissions in its bid to boost a slowing economy. Across the country, 148GW of coal-fired plants are either being built or are about to begin construction, according to a report from Global Energy Monitor, a non-profit group that monitors coal stations. The current capacity of the entire EU coal fleet is 149GW.While the rest of the world has been largely reducing coal-powered capacity over the past two years, China is building so much coal power that it more than offsets the decline elsewhere.

China steps up rush for more coal power....

is what it remains, until we hear from GCM.
When we do hear, I don't expect it to be pretty - ongoing discussions, new partners etc...
Intransigence by the GOB and a reluctance to commit to anything concrete going forward will be the theme.
At 50p / share, the Chinese or Petrobangla could snap up GCM. But they haven't and I find that aspect the most disturbing. Drive the company down to nil value and then seize the asset. Standard AIM practice with the tiddlers and wipes out the shareholders.
BUT - Michael Tang is a lawyer and he and his associates hold a lot of the equity / payment promises...…..there is a big incentive there to keep fighting and I feel comfortable that the legal ties will be fairly water-tight.
We truly need some luck in our direction,

...boring week ahead with GCM.
Great win for Verstappen in Brazil, that Honda in Gasly's car has some grunt up the hill when matched with the Mercedes.

China wins US$3 billion bid to build rail line in Bangladesh - will we ever see the same headline for 6000 MW power project at Phulbari.
Its pretty obvious from all the articles GP has posted, that China is deeply embedded in the current and future development of Bangladesh.
However, does Hasina still think that she can get away with importing huge amounts of coal, when everyone is telling her that Phulbari must go ahead to help protect the foreign exchange account.
Bangladesh's own supply of high grade thermal coal provides such a cushion from the vagaries of the market as well as lower generation costs.
A 'No-brainer'..??……...not to her it isn't, she sees civil unrest, population displacement and the loss of agriculturally important land.

...'we must not even waste a single day in giving green signal to commence mining. It is my firm conviction for ensuring sustainable economic development in the northwest region, development of the coal mines must be a top priority national initiative.'
We just need Hasina to say something like this. Unfortunately she is probably too pre-occupied by typhoon Bul Bul.
I guess the impasse will continue for a while. Not sure how the AGM will go as the February deadline was clearly ludicrous and was never going to be met.

….interesting that the Barapukaria mine was slated in the 'Choked on Coal' report - inefficient, toxic by-products, theft by employees. I guess that's one mine not on the Chinese shopping list, unless it is incorporated into the Phulbari scheme.
Still have a hunch that the end-game does not include GCM. The sale of the business to a new JV company would be the preferred option for many of the shareholders after twelve years of little progress.
The price will be the key factor, maybe Hasina / Hamid will try and co-erce Michael Tang to accept a 'lowish figure' and Phulbari reverts to the GofB. Nationalisation was always an option, though legal challenges could then stall the project.
But, the biggest plus for GCM has to be the 'Belt & Road' initiative. This has to be the key to a timely exit from the project - I hope so.

….looking through the 'Choked on Coal 'report, a lot of the projects are years / decade away. Interesting the Phulbari appears at the top of the list on one page.
Time frames are widely differing with those in the next 4-5 years with a raft of projects in 2025, 26, 27, 28, 31 and 2032.
The report also states Phulbari Phase1 and Phase 2.
2024 commission is the fact that really stands out. Where did that come from - is it just a bit of PR by GCM/PowerChina or maybe our detractors 'jumping the gun'.

….absolutely, that would be the best way out. At the moment we are a small player with little clout, not sure the WhatsApp lot would be quite so keen to take on China and the Belt & Road behemoth...…
C'mon Michael Tang.....you don't want to wear a hard hat and HiViz - much nicer to take a big cheque into your local bank....

...like most politicians she got her timing completely wrong. In 2014 she could have got Phulbari away, but instead made the famous 'remain buried for the next generation' speech. Now she has the Chinese financial and technical might, but a world which is saying 'climate change' at every opportunity.
To get out of the EPCs would cost a fortune and her backers would leave. China will undoubtedly have a full road map for the mines, deep-sea ports, generation plants and power distribution infrastructure, she needs to let them get on with it.
Will she announce a Phulbari go-ahead imminently or let the dust settle on the report. Unfortunately, I think she will wait and dither in her usual way.
Our biggest worry is public disaffection with the project and the arrival of the Whats App rioters at the site.
On the plus side - good to see a commissioning date of five years on the PowerChina plant, but its gone a bit quiet on CGGC and their's.